Key technology
Lam Research is the world's leading manufacturer of etching systems, which play a key role in semiconductor production.
Lam Research's largest customers include well-known companies such as Micron, Samsung, SK hynix and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC).
This strong customer base underlines the importance of Lam Research as an indispensable supplier to the semiconductor industry - a sector that is becoming increasingly relevant.
The growth prospects for Lam Research are promising. The semiconductor industry is facing a massive expansion of production capacities.
This should inevitably lead to increased demand for Lam Research's equipment. In addition, there is a continuous need to modernize and replace obsolete equipment.
As a result, Lam Research's sales and profits are likely to increase significantly in the long term, although the fluctuations typical of the industry will continue.
In my view, the future of Lam Research is likely to look more or less like the past.
The past and the future
Over the past ten years, Lam has increased sales from USD 5.89 billion to USD 18.4 billion. The operating margin has improved from 20% to 32%.
At the same time, the number of shares outstanding was reduced from 1.75 to 1.29 billion. Earnings rose from USD 0.64 to USD 4.15 per share.
The last quarter, the figures for which were presented on July 30, shows that the success story is far from over.
At USD 1.33 per share, Q4 earnings were well above expectations of USD 1.22. With turnover of USD 5.17 billion, the company also exceeded analysts' estimates of USD 4.96 billion.
For the year as a whole, this corresponds to a 34% increase in sales and a 64% jump in profits.
Forecasts no longer valid
Lam Research is forecasting sales of USD 5.2 billion, a gross margin of 49.9%, an operating margin of 33.9% and earnings of USD 1.20 per share for the first quarter of the financial year, which began in July.
The number of shares outstanding is expected to fall to 1.27 billion.
The forecast is well above the previous consensus estimates, which had expected sales of USD 4.64 billion and earnings of USD 1.00 per share.
The strong final quarter and the outlook for the first quarter suggest that the consensus estimates for the full financial year of USD 4.47 per share are too low.
Assuming that Lam Research will earn as much in each of the next four quarters as the company is forecasting for Q1, earnings would rise to USD 4.80 per share.
In this scenario, Lam Research would arrive at a forward P/E of 19.8, which is reasonable in relation to the current and expected long-term growth rates
Lam Research share: Chart from 01.08.2025, price: USD 94 - symbol: LRCX | Source: TWS
Nevertheless, the share price fell after the quarterly figures, even though expectations were exceeded and the forecast was surprisingly strong. This once again underlines how unpredictable the stock market is in the short term and how important it is to take a long-term view