Introduction:

Oscar Health $OSCR is a medium-sized company based in the USA that provides around 1.7 million members with health insurance via a modern tech platform. Oscar relies on a digital, direct-to-consumer (D2C) business model. This enables more cost-effective premiums and high operational efficiency, particularly through the early and far-reaching use of artificial intelligence (AI). Unlike traditional insurers, OSCR is technologically digital and automated from the ground up.

Investment thesis:

• Scalability & margin improvement: Despite revenue growth of over 67%, Oscar has improved its EBITDA margins from -44% (three years ago) to -5.8% currently - a rare balancing act between rapid growth and cost control.
• Technological lead: While other insurers are still trying to integrate AI into their outdated systems, OSCR is AI-native from the ground up.

Cost efficiency: Automation lowers operating costs and makes Oscar an agile, high-margin player in the healthcare insurance market.

Great growth potential in the ICHRA market:

A particularly promising growth area is the market for Individual Coverage Health Reimbursement Arrangements (ICHRA). Here, employers reimburse their employees for individual health insurance policies - more flexible and often cheaper than traditional group policies.

• The ICHRA market is expected to triple to quintuple by 2030.
• OSCR's D2C approach is optimally geared towards this segment.
• Even though large competitors such as UnitedHealth are entering the market, OSCR has advantages in personalization through partnerships and its platform.

Risks:

• A significant portion of the current business is based on Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies, which were heavily subsidized under the current Biden administration.
• Should these subsidies be reduced or eliminated under a future administration (e.g. Trump), OSCR would have to switch massively to the ICHRA model - a potential challenge for a small cap company.
• Regulatory uncertainties in the pharmaceutical sector could also influence the expenditure structure.

Valuation & upside potential:

• OSCR is valued at 0.2 times expected sales - unusually low given its strong growth.
• There are hardly any comparable companies with similar sales growth (over 60 %) and market value (over USD 2 bn) - OSCR is a unique case here.
• Should the market normalize, a sales multiple of 3x would be realistic - which corresponds to a price potential of over +900% (10x).
• Even on an earnings basis (forward P/E 2026: ~22x), the fair price target according to analyst estimates is around USD 24.50 - over 40% potential over the next 12-18 months.

Financial highlights Q1:

• Sales growth of 42% to over USD 3 bn.
• Operating result (EBIT) +60 % year-on-year.
• Member growth and falling administration ratios reflect economies of scale.
• Solid balance sheet with around USD 4.9 billion in cash and cash equivalents.

Quote from Trump that could change the healthcare industry:

"In the White House, at 9:00 A.M., I will be signing one of the most consequential Executive Orders in our Country's history," President Trump wrote on Truth Social. "Prescription Drug and Pharmaceutical prices will be REDUCED, almost immediately, by 30% to 80%. They will rise throughout the World in order to equalize and, for the first time in many years, bring FAIRNESS TO AMERICA! I will be instituting a MOST FAVORED NATION'S POLICY whereby the United States will pay the same price as the Nation that pays the lowest price anywhere in the World"

Conclusion:

Oscar Health is a fast-growing, technology-leading insurer that is challenging the industry with its D2C model and focus on efficiency and AI. The ICHRA market offers tremendous additional growth potential, while regulatory risks - especially in the ACA area - need to be kept in mind. Whether there will be a breakout or the new $HIMS (-0,32 %) we will have to see, it falls in comparison to safety and growth, I am analyzing the company for now.

Info written by me with LLM!

@Tenbagger2024

With my small, manageable portfolio, I have been working with $HIMS (-0,32 %) , $SOFI (+0,21 %) , $ELF (+0,61 %) , $AMD (+0,08 %) and $IREN (+0,47 %) extreme volatility, but this has now paid off. ✌️

From +20% YTD to -40% YTD to now +17% YTD again

In the long term, share prices follow the development of the company, you just have to be able to withstand the vola 👍

$HIMS (-0,32 %)

Website:
https://www.hims.com

Market capitalization: $12.5 billion

Risk profile: High

Context

Hims & Hers is a digital health and wellness platform in the USA.

The company delivers telemedicine advice, personalized treatments and prescription products on topics such as hair loss, skin, weight loss, mental and sexual health directly to consumers - with ongoing support throughout the treatment period.

What makes Hims & Hers special is that the company is developing a health platform that is easily accessible, affordable and tailored to the individual needs of patients.tailored to the individual needs of patients.

Hims & Hers thus represents a clear a clear antithesis to the traditional US healthcare a system that is considered expensive, difficult to access and not very patient-oriented. For people without comprehensive insurance cover in particular, good care is often unaffordable. Medication is overpriced, bureaucratic hurdles are high and financial profit often takes precedence over the actual well-being of the patient.

Hims & Hers deliberately takes a another way: 100% digital, aimed directly at men (Hims) and women (Hers), transparent (fixed monthly subscription fee, no hidden costs, self-pay without working with insurance companies) and designed for sustainable recovery.

Already 60% of subscribers already use a personalized treatmente.g.

• an individual dosage (e.g. 25mg with a slow increase to 50mg or 75mg instead of the classic standard variant of 100mg)
• a drug whose active ingredients treat several problems simultaneously (e.g. "3-in-1" or "5-in-1")
• or a different form factor that is more suitable for a patient (e.g. a chewing gum instead of unpleasant tablets).

What do optimists say?

Optimists see Hims & Hers as the possible "Netflix" or "Amazon" of the healthcare industry - in other words, a platform that, like Netflix, creates close customer loyalty with personalized content (affordable, available at any time and tailored to individual tastes) or, like Amazon, rethinks the healthcare system with the greatest possible customer focus, efficient logistics and economies of scale.

Many areas of our daily lives have already been digitized and turned upside down, e.g. e-commerce, music and video streaming, online payment, passenger transport or sports betting. When will it be the turn of modern healthcare?

The following benefits of Hims & Hers are repeatedly emphasized by optimists:

• The addressable market for the diseases covered by Hims & Hers today is theoretically over 100 million potential customers in the U.S. alone. over 100 million potential customers.
• Issues such as weight loss, sexuality, mental health and hair loss are areas where people are increasingly seeking discreetly and from the comfort of their own homesolutions from the comfort of their own home. Who likes waiting weeks for an appointment, sitting unnecessarily in a waiting room and having to talk to a stranger about a personal taboo subject?

• Hims & Hers provides its customers with clear advantages compared to visiting a doctor on site or alternative online solutions: Speed (<24 hours from request to treatment), transparent and usually lower price, convenience (24/7 availability conveniently from home or on the go), no stigmatization (especially for unpleasant illnesses) as well as data-driven, hyper-personalized and therefore more successful treatment than a standard app (at least that's what the company claims).

• After very strong growth, the company now has over 2.4 million subscribers - making Hims & Hers the leading telemedicine provider in the USA.
• The brand appears modern, empathetic and open - this creates trust and captures the zeitgeist. spirit of the times. This is also reflected in the US Apple App Store, where Hims ranks at #7 and Hers on #17. This puts the company ahead of its direct competitors Ro Health (#22), LifeMD (#87) and Amazon One Medical (#94).

• In recent years, Hims & Hers has successfully successfully expanded into new healthcare areas and this increasingly efficiently. Typically, it takes the company 18-24 months to scale a new area to 100,000 subscribers - in the recent weight loss area this was achieved in just 7 months.
• The recently announced partnership with pharmaceutical giant Novo Nordisk - around the popular weight loss drug Wegovy - could mark the beginning of a new role for Hims & Hers. With access to millions of paying subscribers, the company could act as a direct distribution platform for large pharmaceutical companies.

• Not only is the company continuously covering more healthcare areas, but it also acts as a fully comprehensive health and wellness platform: Lab tests (to be launched in 2025; customers will then be able to take a blood test in the comfort of their own home), online diagnosis, medication prescription, logistical processing and aftercare. Data collection along this process could give the company a structural competitive advantage in the long term and enable it to enter preventive care/longevity. Data is power: having the biggest and best data set of millions of patients allows you to serve them more efficiently and provide better treatment.

• Many products (e.g. for weight loss, hair loss, erectile dysfunction, depression) require regular intake or application - this creates predictable, recurring sales and high customer high customer loyalty. It's like a Netflix or Spotify subscription and who wants to cancel that?

• The increasing vertical integration (i.e. covering the steps in the value chain) of the company in terms of technology and infrastructure increases automation (which lowers costs) and opens up even more extensive personalization options for patients.
• Hims & Hers has achieved the rare feat, Hims & Hers manages the rare feat of combining rapid sales growth with financial discipline: despite investments in marketing, technology and infrastructure, the company is already profitable - and is generating steadily growing cash flows. Given the early stage of growth, this is a remarkable achievement by the management and a strong signal for the scalability of the business model.
• The management has set itself the ambitious goal to increase sales from USD 1.5 billion (2024) to at least USD 6.5 billion by 2030. That would be more than quadruple in 6 years. This is to be achieved through even greater personalization, expansion into new healthcare areas (e.g. testosterone, menopause, longevity), internationalization (currently only available in the USA), improvement of aftercare through the use of intelligent technology and the expansion of strategic partnerships (as recently with Novo Nordisk). This is ambitious, but not impossible. After all, the company has always exceeded its targets to date.

What do pessimists say?

Here are some of the most common criticisms of the company and possible risks:

• Hims & Hers is just a good marketing company - after all, more than 40% of annual turnover is spent on (viral) marketing. If you take your foot off the gas pedal, the new customers won't come.

• It's only a matter of time before the first health risks for consumers become known and there is lasting damage to the company's image.

• The company is operating in a legal gray areaas the broad-based personalization of patented drugs on this scale is not permitted - lawsuits and bans could be threatened and jeopardize the company's unique selling proposition.

• Drugs for weight loss (so-called slimming injections)which are becoming increasingly popular, have recently been one of the main drivers of the sharp rise in sales - growth will slow significantly if these drugs are no longer allowed to be sold on the same scale as before.

• The company's growth depends on the cost-effective acquisition of new customers customers. Growth could slow significantly and the business model become less profitable as soon as acquisition costs increase.

• Large pharmaceutical companies such as Novo Nordisk or Eli Lilly could strengthen their own direct-to-consumer business activities and snatch customers away from Hims & Hers.

• There are only low barriers to market entry - competition among online pharmacies is fierce (e.g. Amazon, Ro Health, etc.), differentiation is difficult and other providers with similar products and telemedicine services could soon emerge.

• And much more...

Conclusion

In just a few years, Hims & Hers has become a leading provider in the field of digital healthcare - with a with a clear focus on user-friendliness, personalization and affordability. The market is large, the growth considerable and the profitability at this early stage impressive.

However, despite the strong operating performance, the share is not a sure-fire success:

• The share is currently trading at around €50: after a strong rise, particularly since 2024 - driven by the trend towards weight loss syringes (GLP-1), the Novo-Nordisk partnership and the strong operating results.

• The share is extremely volatile: Up or down 10-20% or more in one day is not uncommon. The company is still relatively small and reacts extremely sensitively to new news or rumors.

• The high short ratio of over 30% is striking: Many market participants are deliberately betting on falling share prices - an expression of deep skepticism about the company. This bet could be based on doubts about the sustainability of growth, potential legal risks or the assumption that the current success story will soon lose momentum. At the same time, this could give the share a boost if the pessimists are wrong.

• A fair value? If Hims & Hers achieves its ambitious targets for 2030, a share price of over €100 would be conceivable in the long term. Based on this target and my valuation assumptions, the estimated fair value of the share is in the range of €30-35. Setbacks would come as no surprise due to the high volatility and could open up new entry opportunities at this level - provided the operating performance is right.

Here is my base case for the share:

Thanks for reading!

$HIMS (-0,32 %) - are at the historical level

Let's buy up all the short positions 🤪

$HIMS (-0,32 %)

Reasons why $HIMS (-0,32 %) has fallen 20% since 16:00 is due to the shorts that were bought and doubts about the takeover, it's going to be a hot summer!

I don't understand why ZAVA is a bad takeover in terms of the status quo $HIMS (-0,32 %) gets 1.2 million customers, the direct market from UK and then to Europe, 15 years of expertise a company that is almost break even and more...