z.B. Hershey's Chocolate Syrup dip 🥲

Hershey
Price
Discussion sur HSY
Postes
54New perspective, new insights
Over the last few weeks, I have been looking at shares from a new perspective and have started to take a closer look at balance sheets and fundamental data. 🤯
Unfortunately, I still don't use a screener and have therefore only looked at the stocks that I am familiar with in some form.
In view of the tradable shares on the global market, this is certainly a big mistake and I have some catching up to do. Nevertheless, I would like to share some of my findings with you.
I have created two lists for this purpose.
On the lists you will find stocks that in my opinion have excellent fundamental quality characteristics.
The first list contains the absolute quality companies, some of which have already proven themselves over many years, and the second list contains companies that could still become such or have not yet proven themselves long enough and could therefore be a good long-term investment. The lists are neither correct nor complete and, depending on your point of view, some stocks belong on one list or the other, or perhaps not on any list at all.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quality companies:
- Visa$V (-6,9 %)
Duopoly, very strong profit margin,
Risks: Google Pay/Apple Pay etc.
- Waste Management$WM (-4,02 %)
Long-term contracts, strong balance sheet, regular share buybacks
- Stryker$SYK (-5,39 %)
- Intuitive Surgical$ISRG (-8,5 %)
- Novo Nordisk$NOVO B (-6,66 %)
- Essilor Luxottica$EL (-4,31 %)
Strong moat, good growth,
Weaknesses: low return on equity
- Hershey$HSY (-1,95 %)
Solid cash flow, >50% return on equity,
Weaknesses: approx. 90 % of sales generated in the USA, trend towards healthier food
- ASML$ASML (-2,09 %)
- Alphabet$GOOGL (-2,74 %)
- Hermes$RMS (-4,6 %)
- Wal-Mart de Mexico$WALMEX* (-5,99 %)
The only retail food group I know of with a significant margin of
significant margin of >5%, stable growth and healthy balance sheet,
Growing middle class in Mexico and expansion in Central America.
Weaknesses: Mexican peso
- Lotus Bakeries$LOTB (-2,66 %)
Continuous sales and profit growth, very nice balance sheet, but a high stock valuation
high stock valuation (like the vast majority in this list)
- Ferrari$RACE (-3,06 %)
- Zoeties$ZTS (-4,18 %)
Market leader, high margin, solid cash flow, growing dividend,
- Idexx Laboratories$IDXX (-3,38 %)
Very nice growth stock with high customer loyalty, strong growth, >80%
return on equity, solid balance sheet,
- alliance$ALV (-8,43 %)
- Microsoft$MSFT (-2,36 %)
- Procter & Gamble$PG (-4,13 %)
- Pepsi$PEP (-1,81 %)
- Adobe$ADBE (-4,21 %)
- L'Oreal$OR (-1,22 %)
- Schneider Electric$SU (-8,15 %)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Opportunities and future quality Company?
- Rio Tinto$RIO (-6,32 %)
- Main Street Capital$MAIN (-6,56 %)
- Mutares$MUX (-8,93 %)
- Altria$MO (-2,25 %)
- Terna$TRN (-4,98 %)
- Pfizer$PFE (-4,59 %)
- Vinci$DG (-5,04 %)
- Mercadolibre$MELI (-4,71 %)
- Caterpillar$CAT (-4,89 %)
- BAE Systems$BA. (-9,05 %)
- Lululemon$LULU (+4,59 %)
- Generali$G (-6,61 %)
- Energiekontor$EKT (-6 %)
- Vici$VICI (-2,83 %)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thanks for reading and I look forward to additions, corrections and exchanges of opinion.
Are there any of the stocks mentioned that are of particular interest to you?
Has anyone delved particularly deeply into one or other stock?
Then have a nice weekend 🥳
New addition: Lotus (not the one from 007's "The Spy Who Loved Me" )
The downward trend has not yet been broken and I do not see a clear bottom. However, it should be enough for the first tranche and the savings plan, which is why I got in now.
Why Lotus?
The fundamentals are strong and run like clockwork. In the short term, companies like $MDLZ (-1,08 %) Mondelez or $HSY (-1,95 %) Hershey probably offer better returns. In the long term, however, I see Lotus as a "better" value. I also want to fish my individual stock positions more outside the US pond.
$LOTB (-2,66 %) almost -35% since mid-October 24 🤑
Review of February 2025
The second month of 2025 is already over. Time is flying by again at breakneck speed and one event or statement follows the next this year. It's crazy what's going on at the moment and at the same time the market is somehow saying "I don't care".
Up down, up down, the markets are becoming more volatile and yet, or precisely because of this, my February was almost at +/-0.
But one thing at a time.
In February I achieved a plus of 0.8%. With my portfolio size, this corresponds to a value of almost €900. Not particularly good compared to the Dax (+3.77%), but still very respectable compared to the HSBC MSCI World (-2.49%).
Unfortunately, things do not look any better over the year (YTD).
The Dax is running away with 13.3%, while the MSCI World is bobbing along at 1.6%. Here, too, I was at least able to beat the World, but I still lag miles behind the DAX.
Overall, however, I am still very satisfied. As I don't have a lot of tech in my portfolio and my stocks are (mostly) rather stable, there is often no outperformance of the stocks and if there is, it is only marginal.
My high and low performers in February were (top 3):
$HSY (-1,95 %) Hershey +15.63%
$T (-6,7 %) AT&T +14.07%
$NESN (-3,88 %) Nestle +13.10%
$ADM (-8,23 %) Archer Daniels -8.57%
$UNH (-2 %) United Health -13.16%
$TSLA (-9,97 %) Tesla -27.59%
Dividends:
In February, I received a net €123.62 from a total of 10 distributions.
Compared to February 2024 (€99.26), this was an increase of 24.54%
Investments:
Due to the construction work on the house last year, the focus continues to be on building up the nest egg and saving up a "leisure account" again, as everything was really used up completely last year and only the custody account remained.
The savings plans will of course continue unabated, but individual investments are probably not possible for the time being.
Purchases and sales:
I have parted with Mercedes ( $MBG (-5,9 %) ) and Medical Properties ( $MPW (-8,06 %) ).
I then added to Lockheed Martin ( $LMT (-3,69 %) ), Hershey ( $HSY (-1,95 %) ) and Petroleo Brasileiro ( $PETR4 (-6,79 %) ).
My savings plans remain unchanged, but it is quite possible that I will stop them for the time being in order to build up investment cash again.
Savings plans (350€ in total):
- Realty ($O (-2,42 %) )
- STAG Industrial ($STAG (-3,66 %) )
- Gladstone Invest ($GAIN (-5,03 %) )
- Hercules Capital ($HTGC (-5,99 %) )
- Cintas ($CTAS (-6,69 %) )
- LVMH ($MC (-4,14 %) )
- Monster Beverage ($MNST (-3,46 %) )
- Microsoft ($MSFT (-2,36 %) )
Goals 2025:
My goal is to have €130,000 in my portfolio at the end of the year. The goal is to be achieved by reinvesting the dividend, making payments and, of course, increasing the share price. The share price increase is of course impossible to predict in any way, so the motto is: if the share price falls or does not rise enough, more cash is needed.
This comes from selling useless stuff on eBay, additional income from e.g. "neighborhood help" etc. The worse the share price, the more additional cash has to be raised.
Target achievement at the end of February 2025: 37.41%
So I'm on the right track (so far). I'm curious to see what else will happen in 2025 and hope that the crash, which seems to be getting closer and closer, will take a little longer (so that I can continue to accumulate cash).
How was your February? Are you happy so far? I think that, due to the volatility, the portfolios in February are far more spread out than they were in January or even at the end of last year.


Short-term profit-taking no. 2
21 days - 6.6% profit
The second short-term profit-taking besides $HSY (-1,95 %) . Here it was a three-week holding period and only 6.6%, but I am still satisfied. Today's countermovement in both shares can of course only be a short correction, but I am happy with my profit-taking ☺️
Sell JNJ
$JNJ (-3,01 %)
$MDLZ (-1,08 %)
$HSY (-1,95 %)
$NKE (+3,05 %)
I sell stock portfolio waiting to go down to buy etfs dividends 🫡
20 Aktien nahe ihren 52-Wochen-Tiefs: Kaufst du?
ASML $ASML (-2,09 %)
Intuit $INTU (-5,41 %)
Adobe $ADBE (-4,21 %)
Lockheed Martin $LMT (-3,69 %)
Microsoft $MSFT (-2,36 %)
Procter & Gamble $PG (-4,13 %)
Hershey $HSY (-1,95 %)
PepsiCo $PEP (-1,81 %)
Advanced Micro Devices $AMD (-8,01 %)
Diageo $DGE (-1,41 %)
Exxon Mobil $XOM (-6,83 %)
Canadian National Railway $CNR (-0,97 %)
Merck & Co. $MRK (-4,87 %)
Lam Research $LRCX (-8,64 %)
Novo Nordisk $NOVO B (-6,66 %)
Nike $NKE (+3,05 %)
Dollar General $DG (-0,31 %)
Estee Lauder $EL (-8,7 %)
Restaurant Brands International $QSR (-5,52 %)
Mondelez $MDLZ (-1,08 %)
Schlägst du zu? Falls ja, wo?
Hershey Q4'24 Earnings Highlights
🔹 EPS: $2.69 (Est. $2.37) 🟢; UP +33.2% YoY
🔹 Revenue: $2.89B (Est. $2.84B) 😐; UP +8.7% YoY
🔹 Gross Profit Margin: 54.0% (Est. 42.4%) 🟢; UP +1,170bps YoY
FY25 Guidance:
🔹 EPS: $6.00 - $6.18 (Est. $7.36) 🔴; DOWN mid-30% YoY
🔹 Revenue Growth: At least +2% YoY
🔹 Reported EPS Growth: DOWN high-40% YoY
🔹 Effective Tax Rate: 14% - 15%
🔹 Capital Expenditures: $425M - $450M
Segment Revenue:
🔹 North America Confectionery: $2.35B (Est. $2.35B) 🟡; UP +6.0% YoY
🔹 North America Salty Snacks: $278.9M (Est. $269.9M) 🟢; UP +35.9% YoY
🔹 International: $254.5M (Est. $222.2M) 🟢; UP +9.8% YoY
Operational Metrics:
🔹 Cost of Goods Sold (COGS): $1.33B (Est. $1.64B) 🟢
🔹 Gross Income: $1.56B (Est. $1.21B) 🟢
🔹 SG&A Expenses: $592M (Est. $592M) 🟡
🔹 Operating Expenses (COGS + SG&A): $1.92B (Est. $2.23B) 🟢
🔹 Operating Profit: $939.1M; UP +102.3% YoY
🔹 Adjusted Operating Profit: $696.8M; UP +28.0% YoY
🔹 Operating Profit Margin: 32.5% (UP +1,500bps YoY)
🔹 Adjusted Operating Profit Margin: 24.1% (UP +360bps YoY)
Segment Highlights:
✅ North America Confectionery:
🔹 Revenue grew +6.0% YoY, driven by +4% price realization and +2% volume growth.
🔹 Hershey’s U.S. CMG (candy, mint & gum) retail takeaway +2.2% YoY, but everyday chocolate share declined.
🔹 Segment margin expanded +170bps YoY to 34.3% due to productivity gains.
✅ North America Salty Snacks:
🔹 Revenue increased +35.9% YoY, driven by +41% volume growth (helped by ERP-related inventory shifts).
🔹 SkinnyPop sales +4.7% YoY, Dot’s Pretzels sales +20.9% YoY.
🔹 Segment profit surged +424.1% YoY, with +1,440bps margin expansion to 19.5%.
✅ International:
🔹 Revenue grew +9.8% YoY (Organic: +15.0% YoY), led by strong sales in Mexico, EMEA and India.
🔹 Segment profit +44.7% YoY, with +280bps margin expansion.
February Limit order bond portfolio
Moin moin
new month and therefore fresh 12k available for new investments. Here are my current open limit orders for week 6 ...
Everything between 2% and 10% below the current level. Let's see if there is a dip or two. I am still waiting with additional purchases, as I actually want to have a few new positions first.
$$P1KG34
$HSY (-1,95 %)
$AMT (-2,74 %)
$AVGO (-5,25 %)
$8001 (-3,05 %)
No buying advice or recommendation to buy
