Small discount campaign used. Ek now at 469€

The year 2025 is off to a very good start for many financial stocks ($JPM (-0,57 %)
$SOFI (-4,68 %)
$NU (-11,11 %)
$V (-0,16 %)
$MA (-0,3 %)
$C (-1,37 %)
$GS (-2,21 %) )

but not much is happening at Blackrock so far

since I find the sector very exciting and the stock did well last year, I will take the opportunity and further expand my position

(buy and hold forever if possible)

Dear friends of Getquin,

I'm usually a silent reader, but if everyone just reads, eventually there's no more reading material, is there? So today I want to share my story with you.

The beginnings:

It's hard for me to say exactly when my journey began, but I do know that I developed a fascination with money as a child. My first "investment" was when I was about 7 or 8 years old, when I bought an ounce of gold with my own pocket money. At that time, no one in my family had anything to do with investments, but I had seen it in my mother's bank when I often accompanied her there. I was fascinated by the shiny coins and wanted to know how I could have a piece myself.

Then, around the turn of the millennium, I saw my father, together with a "great" bank advisor, invest the entire family savings in the middle of the dotcom bubble. The result: a massive loss within a few months. But my mother, who was at home at the time, fought hard and was miraculously able to recoup the losses. I was about 9 or 10 years old at the time and watched her sit in front of the PC every day and look at the figures. From that moment on, I was hooked! I started using an Excel spreadsheet to track which shares I would have bought at what price and watched the performance of my fictitious investments with great interest every day after school.

The first few years:

My mother stopped day trading after about a year and went back to work. However, shares were no longer an issue for me until I was 26.

Getting into real shares:

In 2018, in the summer, as a die-hard Juventus fan, I read about an article on the transfer of CR7 and how Juventus shares went through the roof. I was there again! At that time, however, I only had a small income as a working student. My father, who had failed with his investments in the past, gave me €2,000 - and I bought Juventus shares. However, he made me promise him that I would never invest in shares again. How did the story end? The "trade" with Juventus was a success, but I had to pay taxes for the first time - and I still hate that to this day.

The first losses:

After my Juventus adventure, I began to delve deeper into the matter. I tried out recommendations from "Aktionär" and repeatedly bet on individual shares for smaller trades. It was more of a game, but I generally remained profitable - sometimes a few percent profit, sometimes a few percent loss. Thanks to the profits and additional deposits, I built up my portfolio to €18,000 until I was hit by Wirecard. In the end, I had to accept a loss of around €6,000. It was painful, but not life-threatening - and I learned a lot from this mistake. In particular, I made the mistake of constantly buying more. If I had left it at the original position of € 1,500, the loss would probably not have been so dramatic.

Don't give up:

After the Wirecard debacle, I radically rethought my strategy. I increasingly focused on conservative companies, regular dividend payers and low growth. But here, too, I realized that I was underperforming the market. So I adapted my strategy further and took a long-term approach. I have since been able to slowly recoup my losses.

The clean cut - a new start:

In the summer of 2023, I needed all my assets for a private housing project and decided to make a real "fresh start". I sold all the positions in my portfolio and only kept my ETF savings plans with TradeRepublic.

The new era:

When the housing project was completed, I wanted to build up a new portfolio with the money I had left over - and here you can see the result. My aim is to find companies that are growing strongly and have a solid moat. Dividends are nice, but not a must. My portfolio also contains defensive, boring stocks as a healthy addition. At the same time, I try to further expand my ETF positions through one-off purchases - I stopped my regular ETF savings plans at the end of January 2025. I have also invested a little in crypto and gold on the side. I have made further investments in Lego (€500), Pokémon (€1,000) and Counterstrike cases (€3,000), but these are not part of the public list - that would be too costly for me.

Fun fact:

My cash ratio has never been higher than €3,000 since I first entered the stock market (2018). This is currently an exception because I want to build up a cash reserve for the next generation.

Goal:

I don't have a specific, set goal when it comes to my investments. It's more of a hobby for me. I just enjoy seeing how my portfolio grows and how I can accompany exciting companies and be a small part of them as they develop. For me, it feels a bit like collecting: I enjoy discovering interesting companies, investing in them and watching them develop over the long term.

Thank you:

A big thank you goes to Goldesel Investing and Markus Koch, who have been with me since my first stock market steps. Without you, the share culture in German-speaking countries would certainly not be as strong! And of course a big thank you to Getquin - I've always dreamed of a platform like this! 0% bullshit, 100% investments.

I hope you like the revised version! The text is now more clearly structured, reads more smoothly and still retains your personal style.

Please let me know if you liked my story!

A little tip: My Bitpanda portfolio has a longer history, but I was too lazy to enter everything manually. I also didn't want to take over the history because, as I said, I wanted to start a new chapter in my investment history in November 2023. Overall, however, my crypto track is up €3000-4000.

$CSPX (-1,14 %)
$ETH (+1,69 %)
$BLK (-1,16 %)
$GS (-2,21 %)
$XDWD (-0,98 %)
$V (-0,16 %)
$MC (+0,4 %)
$MS (-1,6 %)
$QCOM (-4,11 %)
$JNJ (+2,12 %)
$ASML (-0,72 %)
$RBOT (-2,12 %)
$LOCK (-1,22 %)
$MRK (+2,28 %)
$UNP (-0,01 %)
$NKE (-0,48 %)
$QDV5 (-0,66 %)
$MA (-0,3 %)
$TGT (-2,56 %)
$PEP (+3,26 %)
$NU (-11,11 %)
$AAPL (+0,26 %)
$TSLA (-4,32 %)
$DOGE (+2 %)
$BTC (+0,71 %)
$BRK.B (-0,13 %)
$PEPE (+1,86 %)

The following shares, among others, reached a 52-week high during the course of Friday:

JPMorgan: $JPM (-0,57 %)

Goldman Sachs: $GS (-2,21 %)

Robinhood: $HOOD (-7,16 %)

American Express: $AXP (-2,31 %)

3M: $MMM (-2,37 %)

Morgan Stanley: $MS (-1,6 %)

Intuitive Surgical: $ISRG (-1,15 %)

Congratulations to all shareholders who benefit from the new high!

January 20-24, 2025, Davos, Switzerland

The World Economic Forum (WEF) is an international organization founded by Klaus Schwab in Switzerland in 1971. It promotes cooperation between business, politics, science & civil society. The Annual Meeting takes place in Davos. The motto for this year:

"Cooperation in the age of intelligence"

The World Economic Forum 2025 is dedicated to a wide range of topics, including geopolitical tensions, economic growth and the transition to clean energy. At the same time, tech, AI, quantum computing & biotech also play an important role.

As always, there will be posts on all relevant topics from @HennRes & @Michael-official will be published. Under the #wef2025 you will be able to view all posts in chronological order.

Main topics:

• Rethinking growth: How can we tap into new sources of economic growth?

• How can companies respond to tech and geopolitical upheaval?

• What measures promote education, health & human capital?

• How can innovative partnerships & techs drive climate protection?

• How can cooperation be strengthened to overcome social divisions?

Participants from politics & business.

Over 350 government representatives, including 60 heads of state & government, 1600 people from the private sector, including 900 CEOs and over 170 people from NGOs, trade unions, academia and indigenous peoples are also present.

The key figures from politics are:

• 🇺🇸 Donald J. Trump(soon to be) President of the USA (via video link)
• 🇪🇺 Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission
• 🇨🇳 Ding XuexiangVice Prime Minister of the People's Republic of China
• 🇦🇷 Javier MileiPresident of Argentina
• 🇩🇪 Olaf Scholz, Chancellor of Germany
• 🇿🇦 Cyril Ramaphosa, President of South Africa
• 🇪🇸 Pedro Sánchez, Prime Minister of Spain
• 🇨🇭 Karin Keller-Sutter, President of the Swiss Confederation 2025
• 🇺🇦 Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine

Executives from the private sector (who are expected/ not offical)

Technology sector

• 🇺🇸 $MSFT (-1,57 %) (Microsoft) - Satya Nadella, CEO
• 🇺🇸 $AMZN (-2,39 %) (Amazon) - Andy Jassy, CEO
• 🇺🇸 $IBM (-0,47 %) (IBM) - Arvind Krishna, CEO
• 🇺🇸 $MSFT (-1,57 %) (Microsoft) - Bill Gates, co-founder and head of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
• 🌎 Cohere - Aidan Gomez, CEO
• 🌎 $META (-1,11 %) (Meta) - Yann LeCun, AI scientist
• 🌎 OpenAI - Sam Altman, CEO
• 🇺🇸 $TSLA (-4,32 %) (Tesla) - Elon Musk, CEO

Financial sector

• 🇪🇺 ECB - Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank
• 🇫🇷 ECB - Francois Villeroy de Galhau, President of the French Central Bank
• 🇩🇪 German Bundesbank- Joachim Nagel, President
• 🇺🇸 $BLK (BlackRock) - Martin Lück, Chief Investment Strategist
• 🇳🇱 $ING (-0,3 %) (ING) - Carsten Brzeski, Chief Economist at ING Germany

Banking sector

• 🇺🇸 $JPM (-0,57 %) (JPMorgan Chase) - Jamie Dimon, CEO
• 🇨🇭 $UBSG (+0,91 %) (UBS) - Sergio Ermotti, Group CEO
• 🇨🇭 $UBSG (+0,91 %) (UBS) - Colm Kelleher, President
• 🇩🇪 $DBK (+0,12 %) (Deutsche Bank) - Christian Sewing, CEO
• 🇺🇸 $GS (-2,21 %) (Goldman Sachs) - David Solomon, Chairman and CEO
• 🇺🇸 $BAC (-0,56 %) (Bank of America) - Brian Moynihan, CEO
• 🇺🇸 $C (-1,37 %) (Citigroup) - Jane Fraser, CEO
• 🇬🇧 $HSBA (+1,02 %) (HSBC) - Mark Tucker, Group Chairman
• 🇬🇧 $HSBA (+1,02 %) (HSBC) - Michael Roberts, CEO of HSBC Bank
• 🇺🇸 $MS (-1,6 %) (Morgan Stanley) - Ted Pick, CEO
• 🇬🇧 $BARC (-0,18 %) (Barclays) - C.S. Venkatakrishnan, CEO
• 🇫🇷 $GLE (+0,52 %) (Société Générale) - Slawomir Krupa, CEO
• 🇮🇹 $UCG (-0,29 %) (UniCredit) - Andrea Orcel, CEO
• 🇦🇹 $BG (+1,34 %) (BAWAG Group) - Anja E. M. W. Schreiber, CEO
• 🇦🇹 $EBS (+1,09 %) (Erste Group) - Andreas Treichl, CEO

Industry sector

• 🇩🇪 $BAYN (+1,43 %) (Bayer) - Bill Anderson, CEO
• 🇨🇭 $NESNE (Nestlé) - Mark Schneider, CEO
• 🇬🇧 $ULVR (+0,79 %) (Unilever) - Hein Schumacher, CEO
• 🇨🇳 SHEIN - Donald Tang, Vice Chairman
• 🇮🇳 ADANIENT (Adani Enterprises) - Gautam Adani, Chairman

... and many more from the Tech, Banking, AI, Biotech, Pharma, Industrial, etc. sectors.

$AMD (-2,29 %)

AMD's valuation has halved in the last year.

Current forward P/E: 27x

Jensen Huang says - "For every million autonomous cars on the road, $2 billion to $3 billion worth of data centers are needed."

There are 291 MILLION cars on the road in the US alone

If his calculations are correct, there is a lot of growth here. 🚀

S&P GLOBAL upgrades credit rating $AMD (-2,29 %) up to "A"

According to S&P, AMD's market share gains in CPUs and strong AI-accelerated chip sales will lead to revenue growth of 13% in 2024 and 24% in 2025. The stable outlook reflects AMD's solid free cash flow, strong balance sheet and conservative financial policy. Data center performance will drive growth.

What does Goldman Sachs and

Goldman Sachs downgrades $AMD (-2,29 %) from "buy" to "neutral" and lowered the price target from 175 to 129 US dollars.

Analyst comments: "While we remain optimistic about AMD's ability to take market share from Intel in x86-based computing on PCs and traditional servers, we are increasingly concerned that the rise of Arm-based specialty CPUs and increased competition in accelerated computing will do the following:

(a) hurt AMD's revenue growth relative to competitors,

b) put upward pressure on AMD's operating costs; and

c) impact the stock multiple.

Since being added to the Buy list on November 4, 2020, the stock has gained 50%, while the S&P 500 has gained 72% over the same period. We believe this underperformance is due to weakness in PC and traditional end demand as well as slower than expected growth in data center GPUs.

We now expect the stock to remain range-bound until the market regains confidence in AMD's future growth and profit margin performance."

Analyst: Toshiya Hari

We will see ✌️

$AMD (-2,29 %) , $NVDA, (-3,63 %)
$GS (-2,21 %) ,

The last dividend in 2024 arrives today. The portfolio reorganization is now almost complete after about 6 months. So this year I got about 7300€ dividend minus tax. Which corresponds to an increase of 12% compared to 2023. For 2025 I expect around €14500 in dividends. However, I am still assuming an increase of 7%, which is absolutely realistic in my eyes. Perhaps even a little too low. Now, of course, it depends on which value I use to calculate my personal return. Based on the current portfolio value, this results in a return of around 2.2% on my reinvested capital, which is around 2.6% based on my original investment, which results in a return of around 9.2%

The oil market is facing one of the most complex challenges since the pandemic, due to a combination of geopolitical tensions, long-term production strategies and volatile demand, particularly from China and Europe. OPEC+ decisions and uncertainties in the US are currently shaping market conditions and putting pressure on both producers and consumers.

OPEC+: strategy of production delays

OPEC+, an association of 23 oil countries, has continuously extended its voluntary production cuts since 2022. These measures were aimed at stabilizing oil prices post-pandemic slumps. In June 2024, the original plan was to gradually increase production by 2.2 million barrels per day. In the most recent decisions, the following was decided:

• The production increase has been postponed again and is now scheduled to begin in April 2025 at the earliest.
• OPEC+ originally planned to extend its current production cuts until September 2025 completely. This deadline has now been extended by one year, meaning that the cuts will not be reversed until September 2026 be completed.
• This is the third delay in 6 months.

Reasons for the delay

Weak demand:

• China is experiencing slower economic growth, which is dampening demand for oil. In the third quarter of 2024, the Chinese economy grew by 4.6%, the weakest growth in a year and a half. Economic growth of around 4.8% is expected for 2024, with a further slowdown to 4.5% in 20251. The World Bank forecasts real GDP growth of 4.5% for 2024 and 4.3% for 2025. The main reasons for the slowdown in growth are weak domestic demand and consumer restraint, the real estate crisis and uncertainty on the labor market.

• European demand also remains subdued due to the energy transition, economic uncertainties and geopolitics.

Alternative offers:

• Countries such as the USA, Brazil and Canadawhich are not part of OPEC+, are taking the opportunity to increase their own oil production in order to benefit from the higher prices resulting from the OPEC+ production cuts.
• These countries can supply the market with additional oil, which could enable them to gain market share.

Risk of excess supply:

• If these countries continue to increase their production volumes while global demand for oil may stagnate or grow more slowly, this could lead to an oversupply.

- Such an oversupply would lower the oil price again, which would undermine OPEC+'s strategic cuts.

Internal tensions in OPEC+:

• States such as the United Arab Emirates are pushing for higher production volumes, while Saudi Arabia continues to pursue a restrictive policy in order to ensure price stability.
• The UAE produced around 700,000 barrels more than agreed with OPEC+ from January to October 2024. The agreed output for the UAE was 2.91 million barrels per day, but this is excused by a waiver to increase its output by 200,000 barrels per day to 3.2 million barrels per day in 2024.

• Saudi Arabia has extended its voluntary production cuts until the end of June 2024. They reduced production by 1 million barrels per day in addition to an earlier cut of 500,000 barrels per day. Saudi production will be around 9 million barrels per day by the end of June 2024.

Reasons for the tensions:

• The UAE has invested heavily in capacity reserves and is pushing to use them. However, Saudi Arabia is aiming to support oil prices by cutting production.

Price trends and market forecasts

The Brent price is currently at $IOIL00 (-3,09 %) which represents a decline of around 18% compared to the peak in July 2024. The price of US WTI oil $CRUD (-2,52 %) are in a similar range.

Forecasts

• $C (-1,37 %) has revised its forecast upwards and sees an optimistic scenario of 60-65 USD per barrel for the end of 2024 and the beginning of 2025.
• $JPM (-0,57 %) forecasts an average Brent oil price of 84 USD per barrel for 2024. For 2025, JPMorgan expects an average price of USD 75 per barrel
• $GS (-2,21 %) has revised its forecast for 2024 to an average of USD 81 per barrel for Brent oil.

Long-term prospects

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts an average Brent price of USD 61 per barrel for 2025 and 73 USD per barrel for 2030.

Effects on the producing countries

Saudi Arabia:

• Saudi Arabia needs high oil prices to balance its budget. According to forecasts, the threshold is currently around 96 USD per barrelwell above current market prices. This dependency is particularly evident in megaprojects such as Neom City and the Vision 2030which are dependent on stable income. In addition, the organization of events such as the Soccer World Cup 2034 and the Expo 2030 massive budgetary resources.
• Despite these conditions, there are signs of a possible change in strategy. Saudi Arabia could abandon its previous target of an oil price of 100 USD per barrel in order to regain market share. However, this could mean lower oil prices, which would make it more difficult to finance projects and put additional pressure on budget stability.

Russia:

• Oil plays a central role in financing the war in Ukraine. In 2024, almost a third of the Russian state budget is to be used for military spending, which amounts to around 111 billion euros equivalent. The Kremlin is financing this high expenditure through budget reallocations and is relying heavily on oil revenues to fund the war.
• Western sanctions have affected Russian oil exports, but Russia has found ways to partially circumvent them, as I explained in another report (link in the comments). A shadow fleet of oil tankers makes it possible to continue exporting oil despite sanctions. However, revenues are no longer as high as before the sanctions, and lower oil prices could further limit Russia's financial options for the war.
• Despite the sanctions, the Russian economy has adapted faster than expected. Through more intensive trade with countries such as China and other non-Western countries, the circumvention of the G7 oil price cap and increased government spending on the military industry, Russia has been able to take countermeasures. Nevertheless, it remains vulnerable to price fluctuations on the global oil market and faces an acute labor shortage.
• The extension or tightening of Western sanctions could significantly further impact Russia's oil exports and thus revenues, which would pose new challenges to the country's economic stability.

Iran:

• Iran has significantly increased its oil exports since 2021, with an average export of 1.56 million barrels per day in the first 3 months of 2024 (the highest in 6 years). This increase of 1.2 million barrels per day since 2021 is plausible given the low level of exports at the time.
• With the election victory of Donald Trump in the 2024 US presidential elections, however, Iran is facing a possible new round of sanctions. Trump is planning a return to the "maximum pressure" strategy that drastically reduced Iran's exports from 2.5 million to just 350,000 barrels per day within 2 years during his previous term.
• The reintroduction of such sanctions could have a significant impact on the global oil market. Especially China's China's role is crucial here, as it absorbed more than 85% of Iran's oil exports this year. At the same time, Iran has improved its mechanisms for circumventing sanctions, which could reduce the effectiveness of new measures. Overall, renewed sanctions could destabilize the oil market, but the exact extent remains difficult to predict as Iran has significantly increased its ability to maintain trade routes.

Long-term challenges and opportunities

Energy transition and decarbonization

• Europe: Promotes investment in renewable energy and reduces oil consumption.
• China: Is investing massively in electromobility, which will reduce oil demand in the long term

Technological innovations

• Countries such as the USA are focusing on technologies to increase oil extraction from shale oil deposits.
• This could reduce production costs and increase competitiveness.

Role of OPEC+ in the future

• Long-term coordination within OPEC+ is becoming more difficult as national interests increasingly diverge.
• A possible split in the alliance cannot be ruled out if countries such as the UAE and Russia assert their own interests more strongly.