Couldn’t Resist Anymore – Time to Stack Up on Fintech

Yesterday I finally pulled the trigger on two new positions I discussed just a few weeks ago: Shift4 and Fiserv. Well, technically, I added to Fiserv, which I already hold, and opened a fresh stake in Shift4. The timing felt right after news broke that Toast is slashing its prices to attract smaller restaurants and better compete with Shift4 and other competitors. But here’s the irony: even after Toast’s price cut, Shift4’s package is still meaningfully cheaper – and frankly, better value. If anything, this move validates Isaacman’s strategy. Yet the stock sold off on the headline before quickly rebounding almost back to prior levels. To me, that just underlined how knee-jerk and unjustified the selloff was. I liked the company before and weighed pros against cons for days, until I finally went through with it.

Now, why these two? Shift4 is the long-term play. Jason Isaacman has built a company with a clear vision, excellent execution, and the discipline to buy more shares himself whenever the stock dips – that’s real commitment. Founder-led companies are my favorites. That doesn’t mean it’s absolutely necessary, but especially for newer disruptors it provides a clear way forward and the innovator at the helm. Multiple positions in my portfolio are still steered by their founders – whether it’s Dlocal, Nu, or now Shift4.

On valuation: it trades at a forward EV/revenue of just 1.9, which is much more telling than P/E for a high-growth company. Still, even on that metric, earnings are catching up quickly, with a projected forward P/E of only 16–17 by 2027. For a disruptor in this space, that’s compelling.

Fiserv, by contrast, is not one I plan to hold forever. But it’s a cash-generating monster with a strong moat. At a forward EV/revenue of 4–5 and a forward P/E of about 17, it’s dirt cheap for what it delivers: steady high single-digit revenue growth and double-digit EPS expansion – including more than 35% expected in FY25. That kind of growth at this valuation doesn’t come often in fintech. For me, Fiserv is the undervalued giant I’ll ride for a solid rebound before eventually trimming at the right levels. Shift4 is intended to eventually replace Fiserv, but at the moment I can’t think of much better holdings to store my money, besides maybe UnitedHealth or Novo Nordisk.

Both companies sit in the same space, both carry some leverage from much-needed acquisitions, and both are competing in one of the most attractive sectors in fintech. But while Fiserv is my undervalued giant for medium-term upside, Shift4 is the future.

$FI (+1,35 %)
$FOUR

Fiserv – Solid, Cheap, Well-Positioned

Fiserv is the kind of company you buy when you want stability. It’s one of the more established players in the payments and fintech infrastructure space, with sticky products and a diversified client base. The stock trades at a very low valuation relative to peers, as well as historically – with a forward P/E of 17 that looks downright cheap compared to other fintech names, especially considering the rapid earnings expansion. Debt sits around 2–3x EBITDA, which isn’t nothing, but it’s supported by strong and consistent cash flows.

The upside with Fiserv is clear: predictability and scale. The downside? Slower growth (under 10% in revenues), and sometimes the company feels a little too “legacy” compared to the new disruptors popping up in the space. Every now and then, a story pops up about Fiserv losing market share to competitors, and that may have contributed to the stock’s recent downturn.

However, I think that the business model is very sticky, and Fiserv has established strong customer relationships, which will eventually lead to a rebound of the stock. The selloff wasn’t backed up by the numbers, which is why I invested. I told myself it would be easy money, a 30–50% cycle back around ATHs. The point is: I still believe in it, and the company is very likely to do well. That said, there is a disruptor that has caught my eye more recently.

Shift4 – Founder-Led Growth Rocket

Shift4 is a very different story: much smaller than Fiserv, but growing significantly faster. The company is founder-led by Jason Isaacman – one of Elon Musk’s best buddies and a strong operator with a track record of execution. I really like companies led by innovators, passionate about their projects, who use market drawdowns as opportunities to load up their own stake.

Shift4 has built an exciting business in payments processing, and while it doesn’t have a meaningful P/E yet – due to its focus on top-line growth rather than profitability – its EV/revenue multiple is significantly lower than Fiserv’s: around 2 compared to Fiserv’s ~5. In other words: investors are still getting growth at a very reasonable price. Debt is similar to Fiserv’s, around 2–3x EBITDA, so it’s not risk-free, but manageable as long as growth continues.

The bull case here is simple: Shift4 has the speed and vision to carve out a meaningful niche, while incumbents move slower. The only issues I have are stability and the risks of a possible economic cooldown, since the company is not yet a cash-flow machine like Fiserv. It’s intriguing, and I will continue to weigh the pros and cons. The reason why I don’t want to have both in my portfolio is that my core fintech holdings are DLocal and Nu – two of my highest-conviction positions – and I don’t want to lean too much into one industry.

$FI (+1,35 %)
$FOUR
$DLO
$NU (+0,31 %)
$NU

Introduction

It has now been a little bit over a month since I published my first portfolio review. I started this portfolio on July 23 and will continue to share monthly recaps from now to, hopefully, a very long time. My goal with these updates is simple: transparency. They are to document performance regularly, explain my investment process, and create a track record of decisions that I can learn from and reflect on over time. I will focus on what worked and what did not, while keeping the macro picture and long-term perspective over short-term volatility in mind. As I pointed out in my last review, I strive to become a hedge fund manager, and while there is still a long way to go, and many lessons to be learned, this portfolio will be my primary credential for the future.

Unlike a traditional investor letter, this recap is designed to be professional yet approachable, so it can serve as a portfolio log and as a resource or inspiration for anyone interested in equity investing. Yes, I am doing this primarily because I love investing and diving into company reports and stock market news, but I also want to share my journey and hopefully be able to use my passion in a professional setting. Every month, I will share performance vs. benchmark indices, most suitable to asset allocation, highlights of the strongest and weakest performance, and any changes I have made to my portfolio. This is not about sugarcoating results. Since I genuinely want to improve, there is no point in trying to sweet talk mistakes and slip-ups. Over time, this series should build a narrative of my investing journey, through wins, theses, and most importantly long-term performance and improvement. My daily commentary usually serves as an opinion piece on companies on my watchlist or the most recent macro news, while these monthly recaps are intended to provide a comprehensive guide on my investing principles and execution.

Portfolio Performance

For the month of August, my portfolio delivered a strong +5.25% total return. Not a bad start for month one, but it is always important to remember that short-term gains are not the most meaningful metric. Consistency is key. Nevertheless, to put this month’s return in perspective, here are important benchmarks:

• S&P 500: +3.33%
• Nasdaq 100: +2.42%
• MSCI ACWI: +3.84%

This means the portfolio outperformed both global and U.S. benchmarks in its first full month, which is encouraging.

However, the performance was not linear. The first few days were negative, but as the month progressed, companies reported earnings and news surfaced, several key holdings – particularly those in healthcare and fintech – drove strong upward momentum. This led to an intersection between my portfolio performance and benchmarks around the middle of the month. Since then, the portfolio has outpaced the market’s broader rally.

The outperformance cannot be attributed to one single stock, but rather a combination of multiple holdings reacting strongly. This is exactly how I want my portfolio to behave: diversified enough to avoid cluster risk, but concentrated enough to benefit meaningfully from each of my highest-conviction ideas. It is crucial to strike the balance between diversification and conviction, without sacrificing returns or risk management.

Allocation Snapshot

The portfolio currently consists of 18 equity holdings plus cash, with cash representing the single largest allocation at 35.1%.

This is a short breakdown of my portfolio:

• Cash: 35.1%
• Largest equity holding: Eli Lilly (LLY) at 5.5%
• Other top allocations include: UNH (4.8%), ASML (4.6%), SLB (4.6%), DLocal (4.2%), Dynatrace (4.1%), Gambling.com (4.1%), Salesforce (4.0%), Novo Nordisk (3.9%), and Nu (3.7%).

The high cash balance is intentional. As this is the first month of the portfolio, it is important not to rush into not-well-enough researched positions only to reduce the cash quota. Even for my highest-conviction positions, like LLY or ASML, I want to remain disciplined with entry prices and only buy on pullbacks, after I initiate my first tranche. As I emphasized in my last report, I aim to invest opportunistically in great companies at discounts, and reduce my cash balance to below 10% by the end of the year. In fact, over the course of August I already reduced my cash position from 56% to 35%, by adding to and opening new positions, especially during the first half of the month.

However, I am not in a rush to close my cash holding right now, since I am convinced that this rally off the April lows is highly unsustainable, considering the economic tensions and tariff regime in place. AI hype is driving this rally, and if the enthusiasm cools down, some interesting opportunities could present.

Since I aim for high returns with acceptable risk management, the exposure to fast-growing industries like fintech and software comes naturally. However, I also own more defensive players in the energy and healthcare spaces that, in my opinion, offer a healthy risk/reward ratio not recognized enough by the market. Indeed, some of the companies I hold fall on the more expensive spectrum, but they also boast immense growth and potential for the future. My focus does not lie on momentum or trends, but rather fundamentals and underlying prospects.

Strongest & Weakest Performers

Strongest performers:

• DLocal posted strong earnings in a volatile market environment, which led to a jump in the stock of more than 40% the day after. I remain extremely bullish on the company, with a forward P/E ratio of 23, reflecting a more than fair valuation even after the recent rally. The fintech disruptor is revolutionizing payment solutions across emerging markets, with still a massive TAM left.

• UnitedHealth recovered more than 30% from the lows hit at the beginning of the month, due to improving sentiment and the news of several super-investors, most notably Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway, opening a position in the healthcare giant. The company has a very healthy balance sheet and a strong moat as the largest health insurer worldwide, and that is not even taking into account all its other ventures.

• Nubank outperformed on strong user growth (over 127 million customers across Latin America) and rising profitability. As the leading neobank in Latin America, Nu delivers >25% annual growth and holds a stellar position. The TAM is hard to overlook, as the neobank operates in one of the most underbanked regions worldwide.

Weakest performers:

• Salesforce slightly recovered from recently hit lows, while still underperforming the broader tech sector due to a perceived lack of AI implementation. However, Salesforce is the largest provider of CRM services worldwide and in a very good position for a recovery if any good news hits. The company has not taken part in the recent rally and could be in for a rebound.

• Gambling.com sold off after solid earnings due to a cautious outlook. Online betting is inherently cyclical, and the current economic situation does not look great. However, Gambling.com is already trading at an extremely cheap valuation. Somehow, the market still finds a way to send the stock further down.

In both cases, I view the weakness as sentiment-driven rather than structural. Investors’ confidence is shattered at the moment. However, my theses on these companies have not changed. I think both of them are misunderstood and victims of short-term focus, rather than the broader picture.

Portfolio Activity

Because this was the first month, most activity was centered around building initial positions. I deliberately capped position sizes at ~3–5% each, which allows me to add more over time if conviction grows or valuations improve.

• New Buys: SLB, FTNT, DT, CDLR
• Adds: CRM, GAMB, LLY, UNH
• Sells: M12
• Cash: Meaningfully reduced from >55% to ~35%

My portfolio is still “under construction.” While I reduced my cash position and invested aggressively, especially after earnings hit, I still hold a significant chunk of my portfolio in cash, which I plan to reduce by the end of the year. When I decide to buy into a company, I always do it in tranches and build a position over time, rather than buying all at once. Take Lilly for example: I opened an initial position in July and then bought multiple times this month after the earnings-related dip, and now I am almost 10% in the green with the position.

Market & Macro Context

Markets in August were shaped mainly by speculation around interest rate cuts and the earnings season, both of which contributed positively to my return. Several of my holdings jumped after stellar earnings, while others fell and therefore created opportunities to add, increasing long-term upside. Economic data was two-edged: while unemployment continued to increase, so did GDP, and tariff impacts were largely absorbed by corporations. My portfolio specifically profited from improving sentiment around some beaten-up healthcare names and increasing momentum for fintech and Latin American stocks. August has also been a good month for many tech investors due to continued growth and AI momentum.

Outlook

September historically is a very difficult month for markets. These are the key catalysts I will be looking at over the next month:

Jerome Powell has hinted at a possible rate cut at the next meeting, which the market has now priced in. It seems likely, at this point, that interest rates will be falling. However, if the Fed has a sudden change of heart, it could mean a cold awakening for stocks across the board.

On the other hand, if the most likely scenario – a rate cut – comes in, the already started shift from tech stocks to more cyclical industries profiting from lower interest rates could get a boost in September.

Apart from that, I still wholeheartedly believe that the current recovery rally from April lows is highly unsustainable and will eventually cool down, which could create buying opportunities. Whether that will be in September or a later month, I cannot determine. However, it seems strange to have such bullish sentiment ruling the markets, considering the tariff-inflicted strain on the economy. If signs of a cooling cycle thicken, markets could tumble very quickly.

Nevertheless, I am not worried about a broader pullback, since conviction is unwavering for the holdings in my portfolio. If anything, selloffs create possibilities to add to existing holdings or initiate new positions at attractive entry prices.

Closing Thoughts

This first month has been a promising start, with outperformance vs. benchmarks, and multiple adds to my highest-conviction positions. My strategy of investing opportunistically has proven correct so far. However, it has only been one month and I understand that markets fluctuate, which means that patience is key. While it is tempting to deploy cash all at once in order to ride the rally, that is not how I play the game.

In my daily comments I talked about many companies on my watchlist, some of which I will probably never own, because they do not reach my entry prices. That is not important. I have my eyes on countless stocks and continue to research new companies every day. There are always opportunities in the market, and often they are the ones most under fire.

Furthermore, I look forward to continuing this series monthly. Transparency, accountability, and consistency are the main goals. I strive to be the best investor I can possibly be, and this is my log. The target is as clear as ever: beating the market consistently and transforming that experience into the real world.

$ACWU (+0,13 %)
$LYPS (-0,11 %)
$CSNDX (-0,72 %)
$LLY (+2,04 %)
$UNH (+1,57 %)
$ASML (-0,29 %)
$ASML (+0 %)
$SLB (+0,09 %)
$DT (+0 %)
$DLO
$CRM (+0,53 %)
$GAMB (+2,53 %)
$NOVO B (+1,06 %)
$NVO (+1,4 %)
$NU (+0,31 %)
$NU
$MSCI (-0,34 %)
$FTNT (-0,38 %)
$EFX (+1,26 %)
$FI (+1,35 %)
$ERJ (+0,51 %)
$OSCR (+10,3 %)
$CDLR (+1,11 %)
$CADLR (-0,43 %)
$MBLY

Finally, the move to Bahrain is completed. My Austrian portfolio now is officially dissolved and there is a lot of free capital for the road ahead. Stay with me as I briefly dive into all holdings of my new portfolio. Follow my trades and take a look at my portfolio for yourself.

No matter the broker or location, the goal remains the same: Making money in a predictable and transparent way, based on (as) objective (as possible) metrics.

I try to judge companies not by their technicals or hype and would never claim to understand either of them, but rather on their fundamentals: cold, hard numbers. Another crucial attribute of my portfolio is diversification. Ultimately, I aim to hold around 25-30 companies in my portfolio, balancing variation with concentration.

There are two kinds of companies in my portfolio:

·     Stable, cash-flow-generating companies with solid growth, preferably a sizeable moat to a low/fair valuation (e.g. $EFX or $MSCI)

·     Unique, innovative companies with explosive growth, revolutionizing industries that offer higher rewards, while also bearing more risks (e.g. $OSCR, $DLO or $NU)

Cash – 56%

USD currently accounts for the majority of my portfolio. This is due to the fact that I just recently opened the new brokerage account. I plan to reduce my cash position gradually over the following months, although not as aggressively as I might had done a few months ago.

The market has been going through a major recovery since the April lows induced by the “Liberation Day” tariff news. The big catch: In my opinion, the risks paired with high tariff rates have not disappeared, just because the world got a 15% tariff instead of 20% one.

There could still be a bumpy road ahead, since the impact of the tariffs hasn’t fully materialised in companies’ earnings reports yet, which is likely to change in Q3 and Q4. As of now we just saw a demonstration of Trump’s “Art of the Deal” that convinced the stock market that reduced tariff rates, which are still much higher than last year’s btw, now suddenly don’t affect the economy anymore.

Undoubtedly President Trump’s negotiation tactics seem to pay off, to the better or worse, which is exactly why the entire cash position in my portfolio consists of USD. The Euro is dropping again compared to the Dollar after a new trade deal was announced just last week, in which a toothless, divided European Union had nothing to counter the USA with. I assume the Euro will continue to weaken in the coming quarters and therefore won’t be changing much in my currency allocation.

MSCI Inc. – 4% ($MSCI (-0,34 %) )

I believe $MSCI is an indestructible giant in an industry practically impossible to enter as a newcomer. You can imagine $MSCI as the $SPGI for international markets. $MSCI is a provider of global investment decision tools, including popular indices like the MSCI World, ESG analytics and portfolio risk models mainly serving institutional clients.

The stock is currently trading at a historically low valuation of a 36 P/E ratio, far below competitors like $SPGI. I recently opened a position in the company and subsequently made it my largest position, which constitutes around 4% of my total holdings. Furthermore, I plan to make it a key position of my portfolio for the future, which means I will continue adding to this holding over the few next months, preferably at an even lower valuation.

dLocal Ltd. – 3.7% ($DLO )

$DLO is a Uruguayan fintech company, providing major companies like $AMZN or $GOOGL with payment solutions mainly in South America, but also expanding to other emerging markets.

It connects merchants globally through their simple one stop shop solution and earns money with the accompanying fees. $DLO is led by a stellar leadership: Sebastian Kanovich (founder and brain behind $DLO) and Pedro Arnt (seasoned Latin America veteran who played a key role in $MELI’s success).

Yes, the fintech space is crowded, but the closest competitor to $DLO is $ADYEN, which operates globally, but is less present in emerging markets. And again, $DLO has faced some issues in the past with a fraud investigation, but that’s behind the company now.

$DLO operates in a market with massive growth potential, which the platform already delivers on year over year with revenue growth in the mid to high double digits. I will continue buying this stock, especially while it is trading at a ridiculously low forward P/E ratio of about 19. This is one of my highest conviction plays and I will publish a deeper dive into the company soon.

NU Holdings Ltd. – 3.7% ($NU (+0,31 %) )

I acknowledge that this is already the second fintech company based in Latin America but hear me out and let me explain why it makes sense to own both $DLO and $NU. In contrary to $DLO, $NU is a bank. Not a classic bank like you might think, a highly innovative digital bank revolutionizing the banking industry in Brazil and soon all over South America.

$NU impresses with its dominant market position and rapidly expanding customer base. The platform serves 59% of Brazil’s adult population of which 60% already use it as their primary bank. Undoubtedly, these numbers are highly impressive and reflected by rapid growth in revenue as well as earnings.

Nevertheless, the Brazilian market is conquered and now it is time for the founder-led management to expand to other countries with a similarly successful execution. $NU is currently trading at a P/E ratio of 23, which is elevated compared to other players in South America, but highly warranted for faultless execution, robust growth and great potential, similar to $MELI.

ASML Holding N.V. – 3.7% ($ASML (-0,29 %) )

$ASML is a European semiconductor company that forms the backbone of the entire global chip industry with their highly advanced machines needed to produce the most sophisticated chips.

Nevertheless, the stock has taken a beat over the last few weeks, due to several detrimental factors. Not the least of it is $ASML’s location. The company faced a lot of uncertainty around US-EU trade relations, which has now vanished, although probably not in the way $ASML would have wished.

Another factor that puts pressure on the share price is the lowered forecast $ASML reported in the last earnings report, which still showed impressive double-digit revenue and earnings growth.

However bad all that may sound, it doesn’t change anything in $ASML’s almost monopolistic position within the chip industry. The chip maker has a gigantic moat, probably the largest of any company in my portfolio. China is lacking behind its technology, and American companies are heavily reliant on $ASML’s goods.

Therefore, $ASML is a company I buy to hold. In my opinion, it currently presents a great risk/reward opportunity trading at a historically low P/E ratio of 26, double-digit, organic growth ahead and a moat that is not expected to shrink in, at least, the near future.

Fiserv Inc. – 3.6% ($FI (+1,35 %) )

I know what you might think: Another fintech company? Firstly, I assure you this is the last one in my portfolio and secondly give me a chance to explain why $FI is different. $FI offers a wide range of financial technology and services across the global financial sector, including banks, credit unions, securities broker dealers and many more.

Unlike $NU and $DLO, I don’t consider $FI an explosive growth revolutionary, but rather a company, boasting organic revenue growth around 8% YoY, while optimising profitability rapidly, with a large customer base across the world, that has been beaten up by the stock market due to trivialities. Let me be clear: $FI is a value play.

$FI stock is trading at a forward P/E of 13, which is a bargain, considering $FI’s position in the market, solid growth and institutional customer base that values consistency, reliability and a proven track record. Thus, $FI is a buy for my portfolio, and I will add to my position if the opportunities arise.

Equifax Inc. – 3.5 % ($EFX (+1,26 %) )

$EFX is a perfect example for company that doesn’t look very exciting on the outside, but has a lot to offer once you take a closer look. But what do they actually do? You can split $EFX’s revenue in different segments. In my short thesis I’ll focus on the two most important and exciting parts of the business.

$EFX is a credit bureau, which inherently function as oligopolies, while organically growing along with the economy. The credit ratings business is virtually impossible to enter and $EFX shares this space with only very few others in the US. Furthermore, it’s an industry that is never going to disappear, but rather strengthen over time. A huge catalyst for this part of the business is lower interest rates, which are likely to be seen in the coming months.

However, the even more interesting segment of $EFX’s business is their workforce solutions: Basically, a work verification tool offered to the government and private institutions which can be used to prove the income people have. It’s crucial to lenders to know who they are giving out credits to and whether they have the means to repay them. That is a highly versatile, rapidly growing business and accountable for the lion’s share of $EFX’s revenue.

Consequently, a forward P/E ratio of 30 is highly justifiable and seems to be on the cheap side, considering $EFX is operating in a high-margin industry with very few competitors. I will be buying the dips in this stock over the next months.

Novo Nordisk A/S – 3.4% ($NOVO B (+1,06 %) )

$NVO is the most recent addition to my portfolio, after using the slaughter of the company’s stock yesterday after disappointing earnings as a buying opportunity. $NVO’s stock was temporarily down almost 25%, after slashing their guidance for the full year on both the revenue and the earnings front.

Nevertheless, one of my favourite quotes about the stock market comes from Baron Rothschild and reads as follows: “Buy when there’s blood in the streets even if the blood is your own.” Still, I don’t want to downplay the horrible numbers presented during the earnings report paired with the introduction of a new CEO.

However, I base my investment on two key assumptions. Firstly, I think the new CEO set the bar for the full year results deliberately low and hasn’t even mentioned promising new medications with one word, which could change in the following months. And my second reason is a macro trend: Obesity rates are climbing worldwide and while $NVO is struggling in the US, partly due to the strong EUR (already reversing right now), the new CEO emphasized in the earnings call that global growth remains strong.

As a result, I believe that the recent sell-off is massively overblown and the stock will recover from these levels fairly quickly and rise to new heights in a few years. The stock is trading at a forward P/E of 12 while maintaining a competitive position in a high-margin, fast growing market with a long runway ahead worldwide.

Gambling.com Group Ltd. – 3.2% ($GAMB (+2,53 %) )

The stock is trading like a sin, while boasting numbers like a saint. Online gambling, especially sports betting is prevalent in our society and growing fast. $GAMB operates as a performance marketing company for the online gaming industry globally.

There is not much to say other than that the numbers are fabulous, the growth is exceptional (>20% CAGR in revenue and net income) and the industry is booming right now. The stock is trading at a 11 forward P/E ratio and the company is estimating continuing double-digit revenue and EPS growth for the next years, which makes it a solid pick for me right now.

UnitedHealth Group Inc. – 2.9% ($UNH (+1,57 %) )

Many high-quality companies enter a phase where they encounter short-term obstacles and subsequently get their stock price killed. We saw that with $NFLX and $META in 2022 when both these giants lost clients temporarily. But what happened since then? Right, they recovered and rose to new heights.

$UNH is the largest health insurance provider and after all the 9th largest employer in the US. The company is troubled by rising healthcare costs and a recent change in leadership. Although all that may sound scary, in my opinion, these are short-term concerns, and we are likely to have reached the bottom of the stock decline and will see a steady rise from now forward.

Therefore, I am doubling down on my position and continue adding more shares, especially while the stock is trading at a forward P/E ratio of 12.

M1 Kliniken AG – 2.8% ($M12 (-0,63 %) )

I know this might seem like a very unique and unusual pick. A German small-cap company running beauty clinics, but you might reconsider after diving further into the company’s fundamentals and some statistics.

The European aesthetic medicine market is forecast to reach $86.9 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of ~15%. Germany represents nearly 25% of the European market share and the market for medical aesthetics is expected to climb at a CAGR of ~18% until 2030.

I am bullish on $M12, due to their positioning in the market and capitalization on the beauty trend, exacerbated by social media and foreigners laying their trust in German hands.

Analysts’ estimates suggest 10% growth annually in $M12’s revenue over the next years, which seem to be more on the conservative side. The stock is trading at a 15 forward P/E ratio and a solid pick if you are aiming for diversification.

Embraer S.A. – 2.5% ($EMBR3 )

$ERJ is a Brazilian aircraft manufacturer, operating in commercial, private, and military aviation.

The manufacturer is third after $AIR and $BO in commercial aviation, but impresses with a backlog of $13.1 billion, up 16% YoY, and a book-to-bill ratio of ~1.8x, almost twice that of $AIR and $BO.

While Commercial Aviation still leads in a direct segment comparison within the company, Executive Aviation is catching up rapidly with a backlog surge of 62% YoY to $7.4 billion and Defense even doubled to $4.3 billion.

Momentum is a big driver of this stock: $ERJ increased deliveries over 30% from Q2 2024 and has secured multiple high-value contracts. The macro environment also plays $ERJ in the cards massively: Regional jet demand is rising globally, business aviation grows faster than ever before, while Defense spending reaches record highs.

Therefore, I believe $ERJ is a great investment to diversify into the aerospace sector, with superior book-to-bill ratio and strong diversification to competitors. Rapid double-digit growth, forecast as well as achieved, and strong momentum justify a forward P/E ratio of 20, even though I would have a better feeling adding to my position if the stock climbed down a bit more.

Eli Lilly & Company – 2.2% ($LLY (+2,04 %) )

$LLY is operating in the same field as the prior discussed $NVO, although experiencing fewer headwinds. Similarly to $NVO the same statistics apply: Obesity rates are expected to rise rapidly and affect more than 3 billion people globally by 2030.

Specifically tailored to $LLY, I think the company is in a strong position to dominate the US market, while $NVO might shift its focus more on international opportunities, probably exacerbated by a Trump’s “Made in America” approach. $NVO’s weakness is likely to boost $LLY’s sales and dominance in the US.

The fundamentals of $LLY speak for themselves with high double-digit growth all across the board and a justifiable forward P/E of 30. Considering the growth and quality of this business, a P/E of 40 would still be highly competitive. I am adding to my position right now, even though I consider $NVO the better buy, if you are willing to accept slightly more risk.

Mobileye Global Inc. – 2.2% ($MBLY )

Now we get to a company that could really be a key driver in revolutionizing a sector. $MBLY engages in the development and deployment of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving technologies and solutions worldwide. $MBLY is a compelling buy right now, after the management raised the guidance for 2025 and commented positively on a bright future.

Commercial development of autonomous vehicles is starting. The ADAS industry is booming and $MBLY commands over 50% of the global market share. Many regions are mandating safety technologies like those $MBLY is offering. The robotaxi market is poised to grow massively in the next years and $MBLY is at the heart of it.

Consequently, I will be buying more of this stock, always considering the risk of the industry not yet being fully developed and uncertainty around who will eventually be the market leader, though I think $MBLY is in a good position to strike partnerships with major long-established car makers no matter who wins the race.

Oscar Health Inc. – 2.2% ($OSCR (+10,3 %) )

$OSCR is another revolutionary, this time in the space of health insurance, providing a cloud-native insurance platform. This enables a range of options for the user; from mobile signup to claims analysis and provider navigation. $OSCR poses a major threat to traditional carriers at least in the long run.

Though prospect isn’t the only thing $OSCR can score with. Major catalysts for the company are its strong numbers and experienced, professional management. Mark Bertolini (former CEO of Aetna) took over in 2023, bringing decades of expertise in the insurance sector to the table. He immediately set clear financial goals like 20% revenue CAGR by 2027 and is confident about achieving them.

$OSCR is hitting its targets and growing rapidly, that combined with a management that has a straightforward vision convinced me to open a position, which I will build up in the future.

Conclusion

With this portfolio I am trying to strike a balance between stable giants and innovative disruptors, with a mainly fundamentals-driven approach without disregarding diversification or the macro picture. My aim is to reflect both high-conviction plays and undervalued value gems.

Ultimately, while I will reduce my cash position over the next months, I will do it strategically and opportunistically, while staying cautious amid tariff impact uncertainty and possible market volatility.

$FI (+1,35 %)

🔹 Revenue (GAAP): $5.52 B (Est. $5.20 B) 🟢; UP +8% YoY

🔹 Adj. EPS: $2.47 (Est. $2.43) 🟢; UP +16% YoY

FY25 Guidance

🔹Adj. EPS: $10.15–10.30 (Est. $10.20) 🟡; +15–17% growth

🔹Organic Rev Growth: ~10%

Q2 Segment:

🔹 Merchant Solutions GAAP Rev Growth: UP +10% YoY

🔹 Financial Solutions GAAP Rev Growth: UP +7% YoY

🔹 Merchant Solutions Organic Rev Growth: UP +9% YoY

🔹 Financial Solutions Organic Rev Growth: UP +7% YoY

Other Metrics

🔹 Adjusted Revenue: $5.20 B; UP +8% YoY

🔹 GAAP Op. Margin: 30.7%; UP +270 bps YoY

🔹 Adj. Op. Margin: 39.6%; UP +120 bps YoY

🔹 Free Cash Flow (6M): $1.54 B; UP +4% YoY

🔹 Share Repurchases: 12.2 M shares for $2.2 B (Q2); 21.9 M shares for $4.4 B (6 M)

CEO Commentary

🔸 “Our second quarter results of 8% organic revenue growth and 16% adjusted earnings per share growth again demonstrated the power of our diverse business serving both merchants and financial institutions.” — Mike Lyons <@&1230638944077611050>