Action (MO) Altria Group Forum Analyses

1Sem.·

How to Invest in the rapidly growing ADHD market. $COLL (-2,73 %) , a value stock with promising growth!

Collegium Pharmaceutical is a specialty pharmaceutical company that engages in the development and commercialization of medicines for pain management.

The company is not missing a beat. They are growing revenue quarter after quarter and I believe they are worth a second look. Let me give you some quick insights!

$COLL (-2,73 %) has become part of Joel Greenblatt Magic Formula List in August 2023. Since then it has never graduated from the List even after the stock gained over 75%. This suggest that this stock is heavily undervalued. *You can find the updated Magic Formula list at the bottom of this post.

Recently, after going through an acquisition that impacted negatively the financials with one time items, the stock dropped significantly opening up new opportunities to buy in.

The new acquisition is very promising and will likely drive future growth. $COLL (-2,73 %) bought Ironshore that had an established presence in neurology (ADHD) with Jornay PM. The ADHD market is projected to reach $30.6 billion by 2032.

Collegium reported strong Q3 2024 results, with 17% YoY revenue growth and EBIT margins improving to 35.2%, showcasing operational efficiency.

Still, $COLL (-2,73 %) faces risks, including high financial debt, integration challenges for Jornay PM, and potential revenue concentration in pain management products.

At the same time, the management is executing very well on important areas:

Improving the health of the company by paying out debt;
Promoting a share repurchase program

I believe Collegium has compelling valuation metrics and good growth projections that indicate good upside potential.

In conclusion I think Collegium Pharmaceutical's earnings potential is at least as good as it seems, and maybe even better!

Considering all the above, I don't see many reasons against taking a position on this stock right now and holding it for one year as ruled by Joel Greenblatt.

Magic Formula's list (09/12/2024)

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Michael T.

@MichaelTurner

2Sem.·

ROAD TO 20K before 2025 is getting closer! Half way there! 🥳

New buys in $O (+1,22 %)
$GOOG (+1,03 %)
$MO (+0,78 %)
$SCHD
$V (-0,14 %)

8Positions

12 638,90 $AU

7,06 %

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4 Commentaires

Lorenz@the_way_to_1million

2Sem.

Good stuff ngl

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Toshi

@Toshi-and-the-Mountain

2Sem.·

$CROX (+5,21 %), is it a value bet?

$CROX (+5,21 %) is a notorious stock for Magic Formula investors. Year after year it comes back into the list (you can find the latest Magic formula list after the picture down below).

Both Revenue and Cash flow keep on growing quarter after quarter, but the stock price keeps on following a wavy pattern. It runs up for a while trying to close the valuation gap and then suddenly it pulls back. Let's try to understand the current situation.

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$CROX (+5,21 %) is currently trading at a notable low price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple, well below the averages of the Textile – Apparel industry and the broader Retail-Wholesale sector. With a forward 12-month P/E of 8x, the CROX stock reflects a discount to the industry average of 13.77x and the Consumer Discretionary sector’s average of 19.65x.

$CROX (+5,21 %) Stock Looks Undervalued

This shows the CROX stock is undervalued relative to its industry peers, presenting an attractive opportunity for investors seeking exposure to the Consumer Discretionary sector.

Crocs stock price has surged 13.5% year to date, significantly outpacing the industry’s decline of 12.8%. This performance can be attributed to the company’s strategic initiatives, including robust market expansion and product diversification efforts.

Factors Driving the Brand

Crocs is advancing its long-term strategy with key initiatives focused on sustainable growth. The company’s approach centers on three main pillars. These include elevating iconic products across brands to boost awareness and relevance, marketing, digital and retail expansion, and diversifying its product range to appeal to a broader consumer base.

Crocs has strategically expanded its product range, leveraging diversification to attract a broader consumer base. The Crocs brand’s remarkable growth in global awareness and desirability has been fueled by innovative collaborations and unique product offerings.

Current Pressures on CROX

Despite all the positives, Crocs' HEYDUDE brand underperformed, with revenues dropping 17.4% year over year in the third quarter. This decline was led by a 22.9% fall in wholesale revenues and a 9.3% drop in direct-to-consumer (DTC) revenues. Comparable DTC sales for the HEYDUDE brand also decreased by 22.2%.

Looking ahead, Crocs anticipates a relatively subdued consumer environment in the United States until the Black Friday/Cyber Monday holiday period. Per the company, the industry saw heightened promotional activities in China during the mid-season festival, reflecting a more conservative approach by China consumers. As a result, the company expects to see a greater pullback in major cities like Shanghai and Beijing.

Given the challenging macroeconomic conditions, Crocs has issued a cautious outlook for the fourth quarter and 2024, anticipating flat-to-slight revenue growth year over year, in constant currency. The Crocs brand is expected to grow 2% in the fourth quarter, while HEYDUDE revenues may decline 4-6%. International growth is projected to slow due to regulatory challenges in India, and North America faces consumer selectivity and wholesale timing pressures, though DTC revenues remain positive.

For 2024, enterprise revenues are projected to increase 3% year over year in constant currency, which is at the lower end of the previously guided 3-5% growth. Revenues for the Crocs brand are expected to grow 8%, while HEYDUDE brand revenues are anticipated to decline 14.5% due to weaker-than-expected sellouts in both wholesale and digital channels. Previously, management had estimated the Crocs brand’s revenues to grow 7-9% and HEYDUDE’s revenues to decrease 8-10%.

Investment Opinion on CROX

You may find Crocs stock attractive for its undervaluation compared to industry peers, with a lower price-to-earnings ratio. Given strategic initiatives, margin improvements, successful partnerships and a focus on sustainability, the stock presents a compelling investment opportunity for those looking to capitalize on the company’s growth trajectory.

However, CROX faces challenges, including soft revenue expectations, struggles with the HEYDUDE brand and headwinds in China, which could impact its near-term performance. These factors introduce some uncertainty, suggesting a more cautious approach to investing in Crocs at this stage.

Magic Formula's list (01/12/2024)

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4 Commentaires

Philip@gqx

2Sem.

Their new head designer looks very promising!

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Aktienmasseur

@Aktienmasseur

3Sem.·

Depotupdate November - A successful month with a clear focus

November was a strong month, both in terms of returns and strategic realignment. The current portfolio value is 48.745,46 €with a solid monthly return of 6,86 %which corresponds to a price gain of 3.131,04 € . It is a further step towards a long-term and growth-oriented portfolio.

Activities in November: purchases and sales

Purchases:

S&P 500 $VUSA (+0,32 %)
via savings plan

The regular savings plan with 930 € in the S&P 500 was executed as usual. This basis offers stability and long-term diversification in the portfolio.

Bitcoin $BTC (-0,9 %)
The individual purchases with a value of 2.361,92 € reflect the conviction that Bitcoin will continue to gain in importance as an asset class in the long term. With a current weighting of 5,47 % it remains a tactical addition.

Sales:

Altria Group $MO (+0,78 %)
The position was sold with a plus of just under 30 % which corresponds to a volume of 1.340 € corresponds to a volume of €1,340. The tobacco giant no longer fits in with the growth strategy, which focuses on innovative and future-oriented companies.

LVMH $MC (-0,25 %)
This position was also sold, with a total value of 800 € and a loss of 280,74 €. Despite the quality of the company, the focus is now more on growth-oriented stocks, which is why LVMH no longer fits the strategy.

Portfolio structure and weighting

Security type weighting:

49.47 % ETFs - A stable anchor, particularly through the S&P 500.
45.05 % equities - The focus remains on individual stocks with potential for growth.
5.47 % Bitcoin - A small but increasingly relevant addition.

Top 5 sectors:

IT (25.19 %) - Driver in the portfolio, led by NVIDIA $NVDA (+2,01 %) and Apple $AAPL (+1,34 %)
Financial services (23.89 %) - Reliable returns with Allianz $ALV (-0,66 %) and BlackRock $BLK (+0,12 %)
Defensive consumer goods (16.05%) - Stability through P&G $PG (-1,24 %) and Walmart $WMT (-2,1 %)
Cyclical consumer goods (7 %) - Moderate exposure with potential.

Industrial goods (6.32%) - A diversifying addition.

Country allocation:

USA (80 %): The dominant market in the portfolio.
Germany (6.6%): Local stocks such as Allianz and Siemens.
Other countries (5.54%): Global diversification.
UK (1.08 %) and France (0.90 %): Smaller positions.

Deep Dive: The top 5 positions

NVIDIA (7.72 %):

Leader in AI development and graphics processors. NVIDIA remains the largest position and a key stock in the portfolio.

Allianz (6.16%):

A defensive anchor with stable dividends and strong market position in the insurance and wealth sector.

Apple (6.03%):

With a focus on services, wearables and technological innovation, Apple remains an essential holding.

Microsoft $MSFT (-1,05 %)
(5,65 %):

Leader in cloud services and AI solutions. Microsoft remains a long-term favorite.

BlackRock (5.63%):

The world's largest asset manager benefits from rising capital inflows and remains a mainstay.

Top movers in November

Winner:

Walmart (+15.55%): Convincing quarterly figures and strategic e-commerce expansion.
Costco $COST (-1,09 %)
(+14,14 %): Solid performer thanks to strong member retention.
P&G (+10.89 %): Resilience to crisis pays off.
S&P 500 ETF (+8.38 %): Benefits from the general market upswing.
Waste Management $WM (-0,32 %)
(+8,27 %): Stable income from a defensive business model.

Loser:

Hercules Capital (-2.38%): The BDC specialist had a weak month. A strategic review of this position is imminent.

Conclusion and outlook

November was a very successful monthboth in terms of returns and the strategic realignment.

Key decisions:

The focus remains on long-term growth through technology and quality stocks.
The sales of Altria and LVMH show that the portfolio is being consistently adapted to the strategy.
Hercules Capital is under review and could soon be removed from the portfolio as it no longer fits the growth strategy.

Long-term perspective:

With the savings plan and targeted individual purchases, the portfolio is running on "autopilot". The combination of patience, strategic adjustment and a clear focus on growth stocks strengthens the foundation for a successful future.

The portfolio remains on course - an exciting month with a clear direction!

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6 Commentaires

Dividenden-Penner@Dividenden-Penner

3Sem.

Nice list. However, if you're already pulling out the restructuring hammer at Hercules Capital at -2.38% per month, then there's not much to your conclusion of "patience" and "autopilot"... 🧐

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TaxesAreTheft

@TaxesAreTheft

3Sem.·

Here is some historical data on $BATS (-0,24 %)
$PM (+0,48 %)
$MO (+0,78 %) and what I expect for 2024.

As BAT only has an HY report, the egg estimate for 2024 is somewhat inaccurate.

I find it interesting that BAT's alternative products have been ignored for years, even though they have been solidly positioned since 2018.

Mind you, this is about volume and not sales in general.

The losses at Altria and BAT in cigarettes are due to the generally declining US market. In the case of Philip Morris, I am even assuming stable volumes with a good probability of growth.

BAT at HP will stagnate if not shrink unless something fundamental changes in HY2. With HILO, if the attack on the premium segment succeeds, the volume should increase again. Phillip Morris is very likely to make substantial gains again.

At BAT, I expect some stagnation in the vapor segment; the big problem here is also the US market, where the unregulated segment continues to eat into market share. Altria can scale NJOY better due to its low market share and should end the year satisfactorily.

In the modern oral segment, Philip Morris and BAT should be particularly convincing. How much Altria ultimately grows depends on how much it can maintain the market share it has gained now that ZYN no longer has supply problems.

Due to the strong volume growth,

Philip Morris to increase RRP's revenue share from 13% in 2018 to >35% in 2024,

BAT from 3.7% to >13%,

Altria (with Copenhagen) 8.9% to 11% (without Copenhagen) <4%.

The main catalysts for volume growth in the future are the IQOS USA launch, VEEV launch in Europe, global ZYN launch, HILO launch, Velo product innovations, action against unregulated vapes, Ploom and SWIC USA launch.

These catalysts should all be in full swing by the end of 2025 and show success in 2026.

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1 Commentaire

Cristóbal@crislecu

3Sem.

I have $BATS and $MO as a good dividend option with low growth (cash cow).

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Toshi

@Toshi-and-the-Mountain

3Sem.·

3 interesting stocks to analyze further!

A quick summary of my analysis on these 3 stocks.

*These stocks were selected from the Magic Formula's list you can find down below after the picture.

Stocks that ends up in the Magic Formula's list are normally beaten up for some reason. I illustrate them as well in my quick analysis.

$HRMY is a commercial-stage pharmaceutical company, focuses on developing and commercializing therapies for patients with rare and other neurological diseases in the United States.

Good news:

Both revenues and earnings have been growing meaningfully.
Strong conversion of profit to free cash flow.
Good momentum

Bad news:

The most recent earnings report presented headline numbers that were considered soft by shareholders.

Is this stock beaten up for a valid reason?

Frankly I think this is good pick and I don't see any reason why this should not be held into your portfolio for 1 year as advised by Joel Greenblatt. It really sticks out at as one of the market's strongest value stocks in my opinion.

$GCT is a Chinese comprehensive B2B ecommerce solutions for large parcel merchandise in the United States. On some aspects it looks similar to Alibaba.

Good news:

Growth on all numbers
Share repurchase program
Considered a potential multibagger by many analyst

Bad news:

Next US presidency is hostile to China imports

Is this stock beaten up for a valid reason?

Many times in the past this company has been beaten up because of it's Chinese origin. Many allude on numbers too good to be true others are scared by the next US presidency. To make it short... there is a lack of trust in this company and it's future. It's undeniably a good company, but will the lack of trust ever evaporate? And will Trump's actions have any effect on it?

$BWMX (+0 %) is a direct-to-consumer company selling housewares in the United States and Mexico.

Good news:

Profit was recently significantly reduced by unusual items. It's never great to see unusual items costing the company profits, but on the upside, things might improve sooner rather than later. Unusual items are often not repeated. If those unusual expenses won't repeat, then all else being equal I'd expect its profit to increase over the coming year.
Constant revenue growth quarter after quarter.
Very high dividend yield.

Bad news:

High level of debt.
Shareholders have been substantially diluted recently.
Negative momentum.

Is this stock beaten up for a valid reason?

At the moment I believe so, but as soon as the profits rectify, I can see the stock price jumping and finally recognising the true value of the company. But it's kind of a bet on when this will happen. If you are in for the high dividend, you are patient and you are ready to take some risks this might be the stock for you.

Magic Formula's list (24/11/2024)

#magicformula
#multibagger
#tenbagger
#joelgreenblatt
#greenblatt

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Toshi

@Toshi-and-the-Mountain

1Mo·

What is your pick from this week Magic Formula list?

For all the Joel Greenblatt's Magic Formula enthusiast on this platform I think it will be fun to publish this week Magic Formula's list and get your take on the stocks in the list.

What stock would you pick and keep for 1 year? Why?

Magic Formula's list (17/11/2024)

#magicformula
#joelgreenblatt
#greenblatt

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Finanzaristokrat

@Finanzaristokrat

1Mo·

It was an honor for me (over 40% plus). Slowly but surely I am reducing tobacco from my portfolio as an individual position. I still have $MO (+0,78 %)
$BATS (-0,24 %) and $IMB (+0,56 %)

06.11

Philip Morris

a vendu x15,14 à 123,46 €

1 868,69 €

42,09 %

7

2 Commentaires

Kai@Dividenden-Sammler

1Mo

I would have rather parted with $IMB and $MO

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Knnenny

@Knnenny

1Mo·

Thrown out to reduce the number of shares in the portfolio🫡

04.11

Altria Group

a vendu x10 à 53,91 $US

539,10 $US

15,02 %

9

4 Commentaires

FairValue@FairValue

1Mo

The number of individual stocks in the portfolio should not be a criterion for buying/selling a share 😵‍💫

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Wif

@salvo89ari

1Mo·

2te Position

🤑

10.10

Altria Group

Acheté x10 à 55,89 $US

558,85 $US

8

15 Commentaires

Jo'@Jo_Wolf

1Mo

A bit late to the party, it will take time for you to see growth materialize.

of course you might probably just be in for the div, but that means you don't plan any margin of safety.

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