Tomorrow, on 15.05.2025, the quarterly figures for $BABA (-8,33 %) will be published. What are your expectations?

China's tech giants secure NVIDIA chips Amid growing geopolitical tensions between the US and China, major Chinese tech companies have invested billions in acquiring specialized AI chips from NVIDIA in a veritable race against time. Companies such as ByteDance Alibaba $BABA (-8,33 %) and Tencent $700 (-2,33 %) have bought NVIDIA H20 chips en masse to protect themselves from US export restrictions. According to the business magazine Nikkei Asia, the three tech giants have together ordered around one million H20 chips, which is almost a year's supply. These chips were specifically ordered before the new US restrictions come into force in April 2025. ByteDance in particular is said to have taken aggressive action; together with other companies, rush orders worth over 12 billion US dollars were placed. The H20 chips are an adapted version of the H100 model and offer sufficient capacity for demanding AI applications despite reduced computing power. The chips are particularly popular in China due to their price-performance ratio and availability. These developments are not without consequences for NVIDIA: The company expects the new export restrictions to result in a slump in sales of around 5.5 billion US dollars in the first quarter of 2025. Chinese tech companies are now turning their attention to domestic alternatives such as Huawei's Ascend chips. Spotify expects weaker user growth After a strong start to the year, music streamer Spotify is expecting less momentum in the second quarter. Company CEO Daniel Ek announced that some disruptive noise must be expected in the short term. The number of monthly active users, an important indicator for advertisers, is likely to grow less strongly in the current quarter than recently, which has disappointed the forecast. Spotify shares came under pressure in pre-market trading and lost six percent. However, Ek remains optimistic in the long term. Spotify's freemium model offers users a great deal of flexibility in uncertain times, as they can choose between a free, ad-financed offering or paid premium services. In the first quarter, the number of premium subscribers rose by twelve percent to 268 million, while monthly active users increased by ten percent to 678 million. In the second quarter, Spotify expects a further increase to 689 million, although analysts had expected more. Revenue rose by 15 percent to 4.2 billion euros, but here too the experts' expectations were higher than the actual figures.

Sources:

https://www.finanzen.net/nachricht/aktien/milliardenjagd-nvidia-aktie-im-visier-chinas-tech-giganten-sichern-sich-nvidia-chips-vor-exportstopp-14413899

https://www.finanzen.net/nachricht/aktien/nutzerwachstum-schwaechelt-spotify-enttaeuscht-mit-ausblick-aufs-zweite-quartal-aktie-im-minus-14431214

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$BABA (-8,33 %) Could it happen that the China (ADR) shares are no longer listed due to the current conflict?

First of all: yes, I am aware of the risks. We don't necessarily need to discuss that 😇

Aim of the post: if you trade knock-out certificates, for example, what strategies do you have? If you have one, is it based on technical or fundamental data? Or both?

About the transaction: It is a KO certificate on alibaba. Bought sometime q3 2024 when the strike price was around 65$ (ADR), sold in February 2025 when the strike price was around 140$ - so held against every "recommendation" for many months (instead of a few weeks). I had put in 2500€.

What was my "strategy"?

I decided to avoid a market 100% when it is in a correction/bear market - no matter how good the company is. That's what I learned in 2022 $TSLA (-1,07 %) when they went down to 100$. I bought at 150$ and thought to myself what everyone was probably thinking "it can't go any lower 😅. Experience shows that no "support zones", which I looked at on a weekly basis on marketscreener.com, hold in such phases. Since I have no idea about charting, that was my only "tool" 😅... and bang... I was knocked out. Ergo: USA 100% currently ruled out for KO certificates.

Change of strategy 🔄

With $BABA (-8,33 %) I thought of the following:

- The hang seng had moved sideways after the real estate crisis

- At the beginning of 2024 there was no recovery, but the real estate market and the economy stabilized for the first time, which led me to look more positively at China - so I continued to hold.

- The fact that China equities were massively undervalued at the time also confirmed my "strategy".

- At the end of 2024, there were indeed slight recoveries in China, which the Hang Seng reflected.

The bet has been absorbed.

I made another bet a few weeks ago on $9888 (-3,93 %) a few weeks ago.

What strategies/tools do you use if you trade KO Zerts? I would be really interested. After all, you never stop learning 🫡

Disclaimer: the times mentioned are from the memory log, in case there are internet sherlocks around here 🥸☺️