How do you currently rate $FYB (-3,56 %) and $PHIA (+1,57 %) ? Is there still hope in the long term?

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- EXANE BNP raises the price target for ALLIANZ SE from EUR 271 to EUR 295. Underperform. $ALV (+0,57 %)

- BARCLAYS raises the target price for AIRBUS from EUR 166 to EUR 200. Overweight. $AIR (+0,04 %)

- UBS raises its price target for SAP from EUR 237 to EUR 283. Buy. $SAP (+0,52 %)

- BERENBERG raises the price target for LVMH from EUR 695 to EUR 720. Buy. $MC (+0,36 %)

- EXANE BNP raises the target price for MUNICH RE from EUR 550 to EUR 560. Outperform. $MUV2 (+0,45 %)

- RBC raises the target price for SIEMENS from EUR 205 to EUR 225. Outperform. $SIE (+0,15 %)

- CITIGROUP raises the price target for STELLANTIS from EUR 12.40 to EUR 13. Neutral. $STLA

- KEPLER CHEUVREUX raises the target price for DOUGLAS from 28.60 EUR to 29.90 EUR. Buy. $DOU (+0,94 %)

- CITIGROUP raises the target price for DWS from EUR 43 to EUR 44.70. Buy. $DWS (+1,12 %)

- CITIGROUP raises the price target for FRAPORT from EUR 62 to EUR 72. Buy. $FRA (+2,08 %)

- UBS upgrades AMADEUS IT from Neutral to Buy and raises target price from EUR 67 to EUR 80. $AMS (+1,22 %)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises target price for PHILIPS from EUR 25 to EUR 26. Hold. $PHIA (+1,57 %)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the target price for MAN GROUP from GBP 2.65 to GBP 2.75. Buy.

- GOLDMAN raises the target price for RIO TINTO from GBP 67 to GBP 73. Buy. $RIO (-0,1 %)

- JEFFERIES raises the price target for SIEMENS ENERGY from EUR 31 to EUR 50. Hold. $ENR (+0,52 %)

- RBC raises the target price for SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC from EUR 195 to EUR 210. $SU (+1,4 %) Underperform.

- EXANE BNP upgrades HANNOVER RÜCK from Neutral to Outperform and raises target price from EUR 265 to EUR 285. $HNR1 (+1,69 %)

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- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH lowers the price target for NOVO NORDISK from DKK 1000 to DKK 900. Buy. $NOVO B (+3,18 %)

- BOFA lowers the target price for RWE from EUR 44 to EUR 42. Buy. $RWE (+0,62 %)

- JPMORGAN lowers the price target for NETFLIX from USD 1010 to USD 1000. Overweight. $NFLX (-0,38 %)

- MORGAN STANLEY lowers the price target for SYMRISE from EUR 137 to EUR 130. Overweight. $SY1 (-0,77 %)

- KEPLER CHEUVREUX lowers the target price for REDCARE PHARMACY from EUR 145 to EUR 138. Hold. $RDC (+1,29 %)

- WARBURG RESEARCH lowers the target price for BECHTLE from EUR 51 to EUR 45. Buy. $BC8 (+0,18 %)

- STIFEL downgrades WACKER CHEMIE from Buy to Hold. $WCH (-0,24 %)

- RBC lowers the price target for DAIMLER TRUCK from EUR 55 to EUR 51. Outperform. $DTG (+0,66 %)

Coffee is the world's second most traded commodity after oil

100 million people live from coffee and for many countries it is the most important source of income. Be it through the cultivation, processing or distribution of coffee.

Coffee. The black gold of the 21st century. A market that sounds so boring. And at the same time growing so strongly.

And yet, in contrast to oil stocks, coffee stocks can hardly benefit.

$MDLZ (+0,09 %)
$NSRGY (-0,22 %)
$SBUX (+3,9 %)

The coffee plant has powerful enemies in the wild. Mealybugs, borer beetles, leaf blight and tree cancer can destroy entire plantations in a very short time. Due to the changing global climate, the plants must also become more robust - heat, heavy rain and drought in rapid succession would quickly put an end to the traditional coffee varieties. Thanks to the acquisition of Monsanto, Bayer is able to meet this challenge on many levels.

$BAYN (+1,03 %)

Many specialty coffees are already treated with aromas in advance. This makes it possible to give a natural product, which is subject to fluctuations in taste due to climate and origin, a consistent quality.

The absolute top dog among flavor manufacturers, with a market share of 20%, comes from Switzerland and is called Givaudan. The German manufacturer Symrise is in 4th place with a market share of around 12%.

$SY1 (-0,77 %)
$GIVN (-0,34 %)

De'Longhi machines are particularly popular due to their high reliability and attractive appearance. The simpler models start at around EUR 100 and are fed with Nespresso capsules from Nestlé.

The high-end machines have a grinder that freshly grinds the roasted beans and turns them into "espresso" or "Americano" at high pressure.

$DLG (+0,93 %)
$PHIA (+1,57 %)

https://fitneo.de/kaffee/

Analyst updates, 04.11.

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- BERENBERG raises the target price for SHELL from GBP 31 to GBP 31.50. Buy. | $SHEL (+1,04 %)

- BERENBERG raises the price target for MTU from EUR 270 to EUR 350. Buy. | $MTX (+0,84 %)

- BRYAN GARNIER raises the price target for HELLOFRESH from EUR 8.50 to EUR 10. Neutral. | $HFG (-2,85 %)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for SCOUT24 from EUR 84 to EUR 92. Buy. | $G24 (-1,03 %)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for SANTANDER from EUR 5.75 to EUR 5.80. Buy. | $SAN (+1,16 %)

- RBC raises the target price for NEXT PLC from GBP 105 to GBP 108. Sector Perform. | $NXT (-0,66 %)

- UBS raises the price target for CHEVRON from USD 192 to USD 194. Buy. | $CVX (+2,81 %)

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- UBS lowers the price target for BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY from USD 806.724 to USD 796.021. Buy. | $BRK.B (+1,58 %)

- CITIGROUP lowers the price target for STMICRO from EUR 36 to EUR 30. Buy. | $STMPA (+1,05 %)

- JPMORGAN lowers the price target for ASM INTERNATIONAL from EUR 806 to EUR 716. Overweight. | $ASM (+2,74 %)

- RBC downgrades CARL ZEISS MEDITEC from Outperform to Sector-Perform and lowers target price from EUR 85 to EUR 70. | $AFX (+1,32 %)

- WARBURG RESEARCH lowers the price target for KION from EUR 65 to EUR 58. Buy. | $KGX (+0,8 %)

- ODDO BHF downgrades JENOPTIK from Neutral to Outperform and lowers target price from EUR 32 to EUR 30. | $JEN (+0,33 %)

- ODDO BHF lowers the price target for AIXTRON from EUR 22 to EUR 21. Outperform. | $AIXA (-0,4 %)

- ODDO BHF lowers the price target for FIELMANN from EUR 45.70 to EUR 44.60. Neutral. | $FIE (-1,07 %)

- HAUCK AUFHÄUSER IB lowers the price target for KNORR-BREMSE from 65.50 EUR to 63.60 EUR. Sell. | $KBX (-0,5 %)

- GOLDMAN downgrades STANDARD CHARTERED to Neutral. Target price GBP 9.37. | $STAN (+2,92 %)

- GOLDMAN lowers the price target for GENERALI from EUR 31.50 to EUR 30.50. Buy. | $G (+0,79 %)

- GOLDMAN lowers the price target for PHILIPS from EUR 35 to EUR 32. Buy. | $PHIA (+1,57 %)

Philips Q3 2024 $PHIA (+1,57 %)

Financial Performance:

In Q3 2024, Philips reported stable comparable sales growth, with total sales of EUR 4.4 billion. The adjusted EBITA margin improved by 160 basis points to 11.8%, driven by operational improvements, productivity measures and higher royalties. However, demand in China fell significantly, which impacted total sales and order intake.

Balance sheet analysis:

Philips ended the quarter with a cash balance of EUR 1.5 billion and net debt of around EUR 6.5 billion. The leverage ratio improved from 2.5x to 2.2x in terms of the net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio, indicating a stronger balance sheet position.

Earnings position:

Operating profit increased to €337 million, mainly due to higher gross margins and lower costs related to the Respironics acquisition. Net profit increased to 181 million euros, indicating increased profitability despite higher tax expenses.

Cash flow analysis:

Free cash flow amounted to EUR 22 million and was thus significantly below the previous year, which is attributable to higher cash outflows in working capital and seasonal shifts. Operating cash flow amounted to 192 million euros and was supported by earnings but dampened by these outflows.

Key figures and profitability:

The adjusted EBITA margin rose to 11.8% and the adjusted EBITDA margin to 16.8%. These improvements were the result of productivity measures and innovations that indicate a high level of operational efficiency.

Segment analysis:

• Diagnosis & TreatmentSales fell by 1% due to the challenges in China, while growth outside China, particularly in North America, was solid. The adjusted EBITA margin remained stable at 12.6%.
• Networked Care: Sales remained unchanged; growth in the areas of enterprise informatics and sleep and respiratory care was offset by declines in the area of monitoring. The adjusted EBITA margin improved significantly to 7.3 %.
• Personal HealthSales fell by 5 %, mainly due to a double-digit decline in China. The adjusted EBITA margin fell to 16.5 %.

Competitive analysis:

Philips continues to rely on its industry-leading innovations, such as AI-powered devices and minimally invasive treatment technologies, to maintain its competitive advantage. Nevertheless, the company faces uncertainties in China due to market conditions there.

Forecasts and management statements:

The company has revised its annual forecast for sales growth to a range of 0.5% to 1.5% to reflect the ongoing decline in demand in China. Management remains focused on implementing a three-year plan to realize global growth and margin potential.

Risks and opportunities:

Risks include ongoing challenges in China, such as anti-corruption measures and uncertain market conditions, which could impact future performance. Opportunities arise from the potential for innovation and growth opportunities outside China, particularly in North America.

Summary and strategic implications:

Philips has shown strong profitability improvement despite flat sales growth through operational efficiencies and innovation. The company's financial stability is supported by a solid balance sheet and improved leverage ratios. However, the challenges in China pose significant risks and require a strategic focus on growth in other regions. Philips' ability to execute its three-year plan and leverage its innovative portfolio will be critical to its long-term growth and stability strategy. As I am only involved here via $EXO (+0,59 %) involved, I remain relaxed.

Positive statements:

• Philips showed a strong improvement in profitability in the quarter, with the adjusted EBITA margin increasing by 160 basis points. This development was supported by leading industry innovations and increased license fees.
• The company made significant progress in addressing the impact of the Respironics recall, demonstrating strengthened execution capabilities and increased operational flexibility.
• Philips' productivity initiatives have delivered over EUR 1.5 billion in savings to date, with the goal of achieving the original EUR 2 billion savings target ahead of schedule.
• The North American market has seen strong order growth, particularly in Diagnostics & Treatment, with the prospect of this trend continuing in the coming year.
• Innovations such as the AI-powered Avent Premium Connected baby monitor and the LumiGuide navigation wire received positive market feedback and strengthen Philips' competitive advantage.

Negative statements:

• Demand from hospitals and consumers in China continued to deteriorate, leading to a decline in sales and orders and impacting the overall financial guidance.
• Philips has revised its sales forecast for the full year to growth of 0.5% to 1.5%, which is well below previous expectations given the ongoing challenges in China.
• The Personal Health division recorded a double-digit decline in China, outperforming the solid performance in other regions and resulting in a 5% decline in comparable sales.
• Transparency regarding the further impact of the anti-corruption measures and the timetable for the government program in China remains limited and increases uncertainty for future performance.
• Free cash flow decreased significantly to EUR 22 million due to higher cash outflows in working capital and a lowered sales forecast.

Analyst updates, 29.10. 👇🏼

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• JEFFERIES raises the price target for SAP $SAP (+0,52 %) from EUR 230 to EUR 255. Buy.
• DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for DEUTSCHE TELEKOM $DTE (-0,24 %) from EUR 33 to EUR 39. Buy.
• ODDO BHF raises the target price for ALLIANZ
  SE
  $ALV (+0,57 %) from EUR 288 to EUR 324. Outperform.
• ODDO BHF raises the price target for DWS
  $DWS (+1,12 %) from EUR 38 to EUR 39. Neutral.
• METZLER raises the price target for LUFTHANSA $LHA (+0,86 %) from EUR 5.70 to EUR 6.40. Hold.
• METZLER raises the price target for NEMETSCHEK
  $NEM (+1,25 %) from EUR 89 to EUR 91. Hold.
• METZLER raises the price target for FRIEDRICH
  VORWERK $VH2 (-1,02 %) from EUR 29.20 to EUR 38. Buy.
• GOLDMAN raises the price target for SYMRISE $SY1 (-0,77 %) from EUR 127 to EUR 131. Neutral.

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• BOFA lowers the price target for MUNICH
  RE
  $MUV2 (+0,45 %) from EUR 550 to EUR 535. Buy.
• WARBURG RESEARCH lowers the price target for WACKER
  CHEMICALS $WCH (-0,24 %) from EUR 136 to EUR 133. Buy.
• WARBURG RESEARCH downgrades STEICO
  $ST5 (+1,06 %) from Buy to Hold and lowers target price from EUR 42 to EUR 29.
• METZLER lowers the price target for SALZGITTER $SZG (-2,49 %) from EUR 17 to EUR 15.50. Hold.
• DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH lowers the price target for SGL
  CARBON $SGL (-0,07 %) from EUR 10.80 to EUR 10.60. Buy.
• LBBW downgrades PHILIPS $PHIA (+1,57 %) from Buy to Hold and lowers target price from EUR 30 to EUR 26.
• GOLDMAN downgrades ABB
  $ABBNY (+1,39 %) from Buy to Neutral. Target price CHF 52.
• UBS lowers the price target for CARL ZEISS MEDITEC $AFX (+1,32 %) from EUR 71 to EUR 65. Neutral.
• JPMORGAN lowers the price target for STMICRO
  $STMPA (+1,05 %) from EUR 42 to EUR 35. Overweight.

Earnings next week 🚀

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ASML NV: The best technology company in Europe- The brains behind every smart chip

Introduction

ASML Holding N.V., a Dutch company based in Veldhoven, is the world's leading supplier of lithography systems for the semiconductor industry.

Historical development

The history of $ASML (+1,26 %) is characterized by impressive growth and equally remarkable resilience. The only $PHIA (+1,57 %) spin-off, after a steep upward trend, suffered a severe setback with the bursting of the dotcom bubble in 2001, but recovered in 2002. A strategically important step was the acquisition of BRION in 2007, which allowed ASML to significantly optimize its chip manufacturing process and essentially grow into what it is today.

Business model and core competencies

ASML's business model rests on three main pillars:

1. sale of machines

2. service and maintenance contracts

3. software solutions and upgrades for existing systems

The company's expertise centers on the development and manufacture of highly complex lithography systems, in particular extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV), which is considered the technological heart of modern semiconductor production.

Market position and competition

ASML holds a dominant market position and controls an estimated 80 to 90 percent of the global market for lithography systems. This strong position gives the company a significant influence on the technological development of the entire semiconductor industry.

The remaining 10 to 20 percent of the market is accounted for by the $7731 (-0,86 %) and $7751 (+0,61 %) which are considered ASML's main competitors in the field of lithography systems. However, both companies have lost considerable market share in recent years and currently pose no serious threat to ASML's dominant position. Indirect competition $AMAT (+1,79 %) are occasionally mentioned as potential competitors, but their business models do not directly overlap with ASML's and therefore do not represent direct competition.

Future prospects and strategic initiatives

Innovation remains the key to success for ASML. The company is committed to the continuous development of EUV technology, which is crucial for the production of ever more powerful and smaller chips. Special attention is paid to promoting technological breakthroughs that will set new standards for the industry. To achieve this, ASML is represented with its own sites in all major markets - including the Netherlands, China, Taiwan, Germany, the USA and Japan.

Total Addressable Market (TAM)

The total addressable market for ASML is enormous, as the company counts almost all major chip manufacturers worldwide among its customers. In view of advancing digitalization and the growing demand for advanced semiconductors in various industries, the market potential for ASML is likely to increase further in the coming years.

Share performance

With a market capitalization of 267.92 billion euros, ASML is currently the most valuable technology company in Europe and one of the ten most important players in the industry worldwide. Since the spin-off from Philips and the IPO on April 17, 1995, the share has achieved an impressive return of 63,670.29% - a development that Philips could certainly have used. In the last three years, however, ASML has recorded a total return of -3.32% and has thus clearly lagged behind the general market trend.

For the development (company figures), a better view and more, check out the free blog : https://topicswithhead.beehiiv.com/p/asml-nv-das-beste-technologie-unternehmen-europas-der-kopf-hinter-jedem-chip

Conclusion

ASML is an outstanding company, the likes of which we rarely see in Europe. With a strong growth trend, an almost monopolistic market position and excellent margins, the company is rightly where it is today. ASML has clearly left the competition behind and continues to invest around 15% of its turnover in research and development to secure this position. ASML is also strengthening its own supply chain through targeted investments in companies that offer strategic security advantages. One example of this is Carl Zeiss SMT GmbH, which is unfortunately not listed on the stock exchange.

Despite all these strengths, one should also be cautious: The China risk is considerable, as ambitious "copycats" are striving to build their own "ASML". Nevertheless, it is an excellent company that is worth investing in - but you should not get carried away by the hype. In my opinion, an entry should only be made at prices of up to EUR 700 or preferably in the EUR 580 to 650 range. Anyone who sees these prices should think carefully about why they should not buy in.

It was the time when shares went up for a long time. Fortunately, I sold several shares. Now I'm starting to fear a sell-off. Will it continue to go down? I will soon be focusing more on cryptocurrencies.

Sold:

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