January 20-24, 2025, Davos, Switzerland

The World Economic Forum (WEF) is an international organization founded by Klaus Schwab in Switzerland in 1971. It promotes cooperation between business, politics, science & civil society. The Annual Meeting takes place in Davos. The motto for this year:

"Cooperation in the age of intelligence"

The World Economic Forum 2025 is dedicated to a wide range of topics, including geopolitical tensions, economic growth and the transition to clean energy. At the same time, tech, AI, quantum computing & biotech also play an important role.

As always, there will be posts on all relevant topics from @HennRes & @Michael-official will be published. Under the #wef2025 you will be able to view all posts in chronological order.

Main topics:

• Rethinking growth: How can we tap into new sources of economic growth?

• How can companies respond to tech and geopolitical upheaval?

• What measures promote education, health & human capital?

• How can innovative partnerships & techs drive climate protection?

• How can cooperation be strengthened to overcome social divisions?

Participants from politics & business.

Over 350 government representatives, including 60 heads of state & government, 1600 people from the private sector, including 900 CEOs and over 170 people from NGOs, trade unions, academia and indigenous peoples are also present.

The key figures from politics are:

• 🇺🇸 Donald J. Trump(soon to be) President of the USA (via video link)
• 🇪🇺 Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission
• 🇨🇳 Ding XuexiangVice Prime Minister of the People's Republic of China
• 🇦🇷 Javier MileiPresident of Argentina
• 🇩🇪 Olaf Scholz, Chancellor of Germany
• 🇿🇦 Cyril Ramaphosa, President of South Africa
• 🇪🇸 Pedro Sánchez, Prime Minister of Spain
• 🇨🇭 Karin Keller-Sutter, President of the Swiss Confederation 2025
• 🇺🇦 Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine

Executives from the private sector (who are expected/ not offical)

Technology sector

• 🇺🇸 $MSFT (+1,27 %) (Microsoft) - Satya Nadella, CEO
• 🇺🇸 $AMZN (+0,43 %) (Amazon) - Andy Jassy, CEO
• 🇺🇸 $IBM (+0,62 %) (IBM) - Arvind Krishna, CEO
• 🇺🇸 $MSFT (+1,27 %) (Microsoft) - Bill Gates, co-founder and head of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
• 🌎 Cohere - Aidan Gomez, CEO
• 🌎 $META (+0,7 %) (Meta) - Yann LeCun, AI scientist
• 🌎 OpenAI - Sam Altman, CEO
• 🇺🇸 $TSLA (+1,07 %) (Tesla) - Elon Musk, CEO

Financial sector

• 🇪🇺 ECB - Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank
• 🇫🇷 ECB - Francois Villeroy de Galhau, President of the French Central Bank
• 🇩🇪 German Bundesbank- Joachim Nagel, President
• 🇺🇸 $BLK (BlackRock) - Martin Lück, Chief Investment Strategist
• 🇳🇱 $ING (-0,93 %) (ING) - Carsten Brzeski, Chief Economist at ING Germany

Banking sector

• 🇺🇸 $JPM (+0,07 %) (JPMorgan Chase) - Jamie Dimon, CEO
• 🇨🇭 $UBSG (+0,1 %) (UBS) - Sergio Ermotti, Group CEO
• 🇨🇭 $UBSG (+0,1 %) (UBS) - Colm Kelleher, President
• 🇩🇪 $DBK (+0,15 %) (Deutsche Bank) - Christian Sewing, CEO
• 🇺🇸 $GS (+0,07 %) (Goldman Sachs) - David Solomon, Chairman and CEO
• 🇺🇸 $BAC (+0,18 %) (Bank of America) - Brian Moynihan, CEO
• 🇺🇸 $C (+0,08 %) (Citigroup) - Jane Fraser, CEO
• 🇬🇧 $HSBA (-0,64 %) (HSBC) - Mark Tucker, Group Chairman
• 🇬🇧 $HSBA (-0,64 %) (HSBC) - Michael Roberts, CEO of HSBC Bank
• 🇺🇸 $MS (-0,06 %) (Morgan Stanley) - Ted Pick, CEO
• 🇬🇧 $BARC (-1,23 %) (Barclays) - C.S. Venkatakrishnan, CEO
• 🇫🇷 $GLE (-0,2 %) (Société Générale) - Slawomir Krupa, CEO
• 🇮🇹 $UCG (-0,06 %) (UniCredit) - Andrea Orcel, CEO
• 🇦🇹 $BG (+0,06 %) (BAWAG Group) - Anja E. M. W. Schreiber, CEO
• 🇦🇹 $EBS (-0,49 %) (Erste Group) - Andreas Treichl, CEO

Industry sector

• 🇩🇪 $BAYN (-0,76 %) (Bayer) - Bill Anderson, CEO
• 🇨🇭 $NESNE (Nestlé) - Mark Schneider, CEO
• 🇬🇧 $ULVR (+0,4 %) (Unilever) - Hein Schumacher, CEO
• 🇨🇳 SHEIN - Donald Tang, Vice Chairman
• 🇮🇳 ADANIENT (Adani Enterprises) - Gautam Adani, Chairman

... and many more from the Tech, Banking, AI, Biotech, Pharma, Industrial, etc. sectors.

Hello Community,

I'm in the process of revising my portfolio and would like to get your opinions and advice. Here is my current thinking:

Portfolio allocation:

Equities (75%):

80 % ETFs (core investments):

MSCI World

NASDAQ 100

DAX

20% individual stocks:

Alphabet $GOOGL (-0,94 %)

Apple $AAPL (-0,36 %)

Alliance $ALV (-0,28 %)

Ahold Delhaize $AD (-0,51 %)

Coca-Cola $KO (+0,34 %)

LVMH $MC (+0 %)

Bonds (15 %)

Gold (5 %)

Bitcoin (3 %)

Cash (2 %)

Background

Investment objective:

I am 35 years old and aim for financial freedom at the age of 50 to 55, with a target of €2000 net per month in retirement.

Strategy:

A balanced portfolio construction that includes both high-growth companies and stable dividend stocks, supplemented by diversifications in ETFs, bonds, gold and Bitcoin.

Adjustment considerations:

To make my portfolio more robust, I plan to make the following changes:

Buy:

ASML $ASML (-0,02 %) Leader in the semiconductor sector with great long-term growth potential due to trends such as AI and electromobility.

Johnson & Johnson (J&J) $JNJ (+0,92 %) : Stable dividend stock (~2.5%), ideal as a defensive anchor in the healthcare sector.

Sell:

Ahold Delhaize $AD (-0,51 %) : Good dividend growth, but limited growth prospects.

Unilever $ULVR (+0,4 %) : Defensive character, but lower future potential compared to J&J.

Zalando $ZAL (-0,25 %) Cyclical consumer stock with increased volatility and questionable growth path.

Coca-Cola $KO (+0,34 %) : Good dividend, but limited growth opportunities - could be replaced by more innovative stocks such as ASML.

Questions for you:

1. how do you rate my new core allocation (MSCI World, NASDAQ 100, DAX)? Should I add anything?

2. do you think the inclusion of ASML and Johnson & Johnson makes sense?

3. what do you think of the sell candidates (Ahold Delhaize, Unilever, Zalando, Coca-Cola)? Would you do anything differently?

4. do you have any other ideas or recommendations on how I can make my portfolio more diversified and robust?

Thank you very much for your support and your opinions!

⬆️⬆️⬆️

- BERENBERG raises the price target for SIEMENS from EUR 215 to EUR 245. Buy. $SIE (+0,46 %)

- BERNSTEIN raises the price target for SIEMENS ENERGY from EUR 15 to EUR 22. Underperform. $ENR (+4,15 %)

- JPMORGAN PUTS SARTORIUS ON 'POSITIVE CATALYST WATCH' - 'OVERWEIGHT' $SRT (+0,1 %)

- GOLDMAN raises the price target for FRAPORT from EUR 87 to EUR 90. Buy. $FRA (-0,41 %)

- UBS raises the price target for NORDEA from EUR 145 to EUR 146. Buy. $NDA FI (-0,28 %)

- BERNSTEIN raises the target price for SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC from EUR 275 to EUR 280. Outperform. $SU (+1,41 %)

- UBS raises the target price for WPP from GBP 6.80 to GBP 7.20. Sell. $WPP (-0,28 %)

- BERNSTEIN raises the price target for ALSTOM from EUR 17 to EUR 24. Market-Perform. $ALO (-2,78 %)

- STIFEL upgrades HERMES from Hold to Buy and raises target price from EUR 2150 to EUR 2560. $RMS (-0,41 %)

- INFINEON +4.2% - 'TOP PICK' OF THE UBS $IFX (-0,92 %)

⬇️⬇️⬇️

- RBC downgrades UNILEVER from Sector-Perform to Underperform and lowers target price from GBP 48 to GBP 40. $ULVR (+0,4 %)

- BERNSTEIN downgrades ABB from Market-Perform to Underperform and lowers price target from CHF 46 to CHF 45. $ABBN (+1,37 %)

- BERNSTEIN downgrades SIGNIFY from Outperform to Market-Perform and lowers price target from EUR 30 to EUR 24. $LIGHT (-0,49 %)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH lowers the price target for UMICORE from EUR 10.50 to EUR 10. Hold. $UMICY

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH lowers the price target for DOCMORRIS from CHF 45 to CHF 25. Hold. $DOCM (-0,65 %)

- BERENBERG lowers the price target for HORNBACH HOLDING from EUR 100 to EUR 94. Buy. $HBH (+0,2 %)

- CITIGROUP downgrades ROLLS-ROYCE from Buy to Neutral. $RR. (+1,68 %)

- JEFFERIES lowers the target price for BHP GROUP from GBP 22.50 to GBP 21.50. Hold. $BHP (-0,86 %)

- JEFFERIES lowers the price target for GLENCORE from GBP 5.50 to GBP 4.50. Buy. $GLEN (-0,86 %)

- JEFFERIES lowers the target price for RIO TINTO from GBP 64 to GBP 60. Buy. $RIO (-0,8 %)

- BERENBERG lowers the target price for NOVO NORDISK from DKK 975 to DKK 725. Hold. $NOVO B (+1,47 %)

Part 4 of 5: During part 1 and 2 were my apprenticeship years on the stock exchange, Part Part 3 highlighted the very positive years 2019-2021. In part 4 it is now the turn of 2022 and 2023. Part 5 will then conclude my investor story (so far) and shed light on 2024.

2021 was an extremely positive year with a performance of over 30% and assets of almost €200,000 at the end of the year.

However, from mid-2021 onwards, you could already sense that something was slowly changing. Inflation has picked up significantly worldwide. The main reasons for this are the global supply chain problems and the massive money printing by the central banks. Both are direct consequences of the coronavirus pandemic.

The year 2022 - inflation & interest rate turnaround

The year 2022 began with a significant setback in January. My portfolio was down 8% in January. There was a lot of unrest on the markets, inflation was still far too high and it was not clear how much the Fed would raise interest rates. In addition, there were fears that Russia could invade Ukraine - four weeks later this was unfortunately a sad certainty.

Uncertainty - something that the markets do not like at all. In addition to inflation, the war in Ukraine suddenly created another risk: what impact will the war and the sanctions have on global supply chains, which are still under heavy strain? Will this

inflation even further and thus put even more pressure on the central banks?

The stock market was therefore under fire from all sides:

• Supply chains are weighing on companies
• Higher interest rates lead to higher interest costs for companies
• Higher inflation increases salary and purchasing costs, while sales fall as consumers (have to) save more
• Suddenly, call money accounts and bonds become more interesting again and there are alternatives to shares (TINA = there is no alternative was therefore off the table)

Above all tech and growth stocks suffered from further problems:

Many growth companies were not yet profitable, but could borrow money cheaply from anywhere - profits were irrelevant as long as sales were growing. By 2022, this had changed and unprofitable companies were even shunned. Another reason is the valuation of future profits. If inflation is 0%, profits will be worth the same in five years' time as they are today. If inflation is 5%, I have to discount the profit in five years at 5% and suddenly the profit in five years is worth much less in real terms.

If I invest in my portfolio 2022 there are only a few winners:

At the top were defense companies like Lockheed Martin $LMT (+0,48 %)

and Northrop Grumman $NOC (+1,95 %) . This was followed by safe-haven stocks like Pepsi $PEP (+0,31 %)
Unilever $ULVR (+0,4 %) or Johnson & Johnson $JNJ (+0,92 %) Also Encavis $ECV (+0,06 %) was also in demand as an electricity producer due to the lack of gas from Russia.

At the bottom was everything to do with tech had to do with technology. The hardest hit were the unprofitable tech companies like Teladoc Health $TDOC (+1,4 %) or Match Group $MTCH (+0,81 %) caught - both with 70% losses each.

But also Meta $META (+0,7 %)
had price losses of 60%! The reason was not only the general situation but also the lack of faith in the Metaverseso that Meta also had an internal problem. In 2022, Meta was already counted as the next GE or IBM.

But also NVIDIA
$NVDA (+3,66 %) also lost -45% got a good beating. Microsoft $MSFT (+1,27 %)
Apple $AAPL (-0,36 %) and Alphabet $GOOG (-1,01 %) saw their share prices fall by -20 to -35% were also unable to escape.

What has me in the year 2022 keep going in 2022?

On the one hand, the thought that I can now buy many top companies much more cheaply, but on the other hand also the dividends. My dividends increased by almost 50% in 2022 compared to 2021 and at the end of the year I had dividends of over €1,800.

That's an average of €150 per month and that's with dividend growth companies and not high-dividend ETFs or similar.

Nevertheless, the statement at the end of the year didn't exactly look rosy. Having started with €193,000, at the end of 2022 the portfolio only stood at 178.000€ even though I had over 30.000€ invested. Price losses of ~€45,000 hit like a bomb.

After another slap in the face in December 2022 with -5%, everything should suddenly be forgotten at the turn of the year.

The year 2023 - Inflation, high interest rates? Never mind, we have AI!

On November 30, 2022, the world ChatGPT and since then we have been in an AI rallythat still has no end in sight at the end of 2024. The performance of the portfolio has turned 180 degrees. Everything that was at the top in 2022, such as pharma or consumer staples (Procter & Gamble, Pepsi,...) was suddenly at the bottom.

Suddenly at the top were NVIDIA and Meta with almost +200%.

With Crowdstrike, Salesforce and Palo Alto Networks there were

another three doublers in the portfolio. One Apple was with +40% already

rather a low performer.

The stock market got used to the normalized interest rate environment, supply chains were relatively intact again and inflation began to fall. All in all, a positive environment for the stock market, which was driven back up by a megatrend (artificial intelligence).

On the home stretch in December 2023, my portfolio was just about able to make up for all the price losses from 2022. In addition to price gains of ~€45,000, I also invested another ~€30,000, so that my portfolio increased by ~€75,000 in absolute terms.

My portfolio ended the year at ~178.000€ and at just over 250.000€ ended the year.

The dividends have also continued to rise nicely - from 1.900€

to almost 2.400€ upwards.

Asset development & return:

Year Deposit value Return

2022 179.000€ -21%

2023 252.000€ +24%

Vermögensentwicklung 2022-2023:

Outlook:

Vermögensentwicklung 2013-2023:

Outlook:

In the next part, I will look ahead to the year 2024 and thus also my portfolio update / annual overview cover.

The year 2024 continued to be characterized by AI, but also by falling interest rates and some political upheavals (Trump, traffic lights out,...).

The portfolio continued to perform extremely well in 2024, although the savings rate was lower than in previous years due to a number of private issues. Nevertheless, for the first time the 300.000€ in the portfolio was to be significantly exceeded.

Part 1: https://app.getquin.com/de/activity/PElWrODsmV

Part 2: https://app.getquin.com/de/activity/LUkWiLtZKX

Part 3: https://app.getquin.com/de/activity/mQAzDvfidK

#strategy

#personalstrategy

#etfs

#dividends

A little more dividend building work.....

It flew in on Friday. Almost enough for a Magnum, so I had to make do with a Freeways Coke. Maybe next time it will be enough for the ice cream.

From 18-year-old wannabe investment banker to successful private asset manager: my (bumpy) path to €300,000 in a custody account

Part 1 of X (let's see how many there will be): The new Gordon Gekko? Between Chinese small-cap recommendations from stock market letters and "AT&T is better than Amazon" (2010 - 2016)

(Part 2: https://app.getquin.com/de/activity/LUkWiLtZKX)

Previous story:

Inspired by @DonkeyInvestor I would now like to share my story and continue it if there is interest. Thanks for the cool idea!

My investment journey began about 2-3 years before my first securities purchase in 2013. While the financial crisis (2007-2009) only interested me marginally as a ~15-year-old, the emerging euro crisis from 2010 onwards aroused a much greater interest in the economy, sovereign debt and co. As part of some school work, I dealt with the debt crisis in Greece, among other things.

Through films like Wall Street or Margin Call - The Great Crash slowly sparked my interest in the stock market. With my first smartphone in 2012, I was able to secretly check share prices during lessons - which often led to the teacher confiscating it 😂 I primarily followed the prices of "cool" shares such as Daimler, Hugo Boss and Sony.

I grew a desire to become an investment banker myself and emigrate to Wall Street in New York (spoiler: neither happened 😉).

The first purchases:

My first purchases were made under contradictory circumstances. I was firmly convinced that a major crash was imminent (government debt, interest rate policy, ...) and was very convinced by well-known crash prophets such as Dirk Müller.

Nevertheless, I wanted to play along and bought my first shares.

In 2013, I started my dual business studies at a global bank. When I started my studies, I finally made my first securities purchases. On the one hand, my capital-forming benefits went into the DWS Top Dividende, and on the other, I set up an ETF savings plan on the DAX. In 2014, I added further shares such as AT&T $T (+0,28 %) Verizon $VZ (+0,41 %) Shell $SHEL (+0,75 %) and Sony $6758 (+0,19 %) were added. While Sony was a great investment, I unfortunately sold the stock far too early. My purchase price was around €12 and I sold at around €18. If I hadn't sold Sony, it would have been a tenbagger at times.

My main investment criteria at the time were

- Low P/E ratio

- High dividend yield

- And/or "cool" company

So in 2014 I had to choose between Amazon $AMZN (+0,43 %) ("cool, but no dividend & much too high P/E ratio") and AT&T ("high dividend, low P/E ratio"). And, of course, the decision sucked with today's knowledge.

Another company was Macy's $M (+0,41 %) . When I was in New York and visited the largest shopping center in the world, I was sure I had to have this stock.

The only two stocks I still have in my portfolio from my early years are Procter & Gamble $PG (+0,31 %) (bought in 2015) and Unilever $ULVR (+0,4 %) (bought in 2016).

In 2016, I had a total of 14 individual shares in my portfolio, 12 of which were sold in the following years and will probably never end up in my portfolio again.

The first lesson:

After I realized professionally that the path to investment banking and New York was probably not the right one after all (40 hours of work is really exhausting, I don't need 80 or more in investment banking), I slowly realized that I wasn't the next Gordon Gekko or Warren Buffett either.

It was too boring for me to just invest in shares - after all, I wanted to get rich quick and drive a Porsche! So from 2014, I also started investing in other things (no, unfortunately not crypto).

I tried my hand at various certificates, reverse convertibles and the like, all with little success. The biggest learning I had was with an absolutely hot tip from the internet. It was a classic pump and dump game from a stock market letter. Someone had stocked up on shares in a Chinese small cap (Tianbao Holdings) and then called on everyone to buy: "Share with the chance of a 10,000% return - forget Apple and co." It was advertised like this or something similar at the time.

I took my entire monthly salary (around €800) and thought to myself: get in! It didn't matter what the company was doing or why the opportunity should be so great! At first things went up and I was quickly up 20%. Then it went downhill - the initial investor had probably made his return and withdrawn the money. The stock exchanges quickly realized this and stopped trading. I tried to sell the shares on various stock exchanges and was able to get rid of them in Berlin, Bremen or somewhere else - with a loss of 50%. Two weeks of work for nothing. Although it was "only" a loss of €400, it really annoyed me. Not just the loss, but that I fell for something like that.

In hindsight, the €400 was extremely well invested and helped me a lot in my future investment career.

Asset development & return:

How did the first 3-4 years on the stock market go and how did my assets develop?

Year Deposit value Return

2013 2.000€ -12%

2014 8.600€ -1%

2015 17.000€ +4%

2016 35.000€ +14%

All in all, these were lost years for me in terms of returns. You can also see this from the green line, which was mostly in negative territory.

The stock markets did very well, and yet I mostly only saw losses or very low returns.

Conclusion & outlook:

So in 2016 it was clear to me: no investment banking, no New York, I'm not the new Warren Buffett and I'm not going to get rich overnight.

In the following 3 years from 2016 to 2019, I built on my initial experiences and slowly developed into a better investor. Nevertheless, more big mistakes followed (Bitcoin, Wirecard, ...).

#strategy
#personalstrategy
#etfs

$ULVR (+0,4 %) Now wants to float the ice cream business as an independent company because sales have stalled.

https://www.ariva.de/news/unilever-aktie-erfolgswelle-im-anmarsch-11449902