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Totileo
@Totileo
4Semana·

Bundeswehr becomes user of CA-1

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www.hartpunkt.deCA-1 von Circus Defence – Bundeswehr beschafft KI-Robotik für die Truppenverpflegung
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Balance seeker@Balance_seeker
4Semana
This stock is on my watch list, but I'm still worried that I'll run out of money before it becomes profitable. I think I'll wait a few more months.
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Charmin@Charmin
4Semana
Now I've wasted five minutes and taken a closer look: Calling this thing "autonomous" is actually a brazen lie. You obviously have to pre-cook the pasta, the vegetables have to be pre-cut, virtually everything is pre-prepared. As I see it, the thing just throws things together and heats them up.

Sorry, guys, that's gross nonsense. And this nonsense about "AI native operating system". Good grief, what nonsense.

Nene, I stand by my judgment. It's a money grab. At the latest when people start doing the math.

More Red Flags:

Why can't I find any videos on the site - from order to table? They already have customers from Rewe to Meta - why is there nothing to see?

Then the areas of application. It says "schools". Really? A dish takes 4-5 minutes. Even if four or five dishes are made at the same time, I can feed maybe 20-30 pupils in one break. What's that supposed to mean? That's completely out of touch with reality ...

And then the name alone "Circus GROUP". Sounds like you want to appear bigger than you are.

I'd better stop looking at the site or I'll be writing here until midnight. No offense, but to me it looks like startup hype where people think the idea is great (I think it's great too, but not realistic in terms of implementation) and lose sight of the numbers.
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Daxhund@Daxhund
4Semana
The share price rose by 16% shortly after the announcement ... then fell to below €10 since then

You only have to watch the job advertisements to see that the germ is starting to sprout in NRW.

It also seems to be more than just a pilot project for the Bundeswehr and I think that something will follow in Kiel and Hamburg.


The delivery figures will confirm the business model and the sales estimate of €40-55m will also work out.

Profit expectation 2028: €73m... at a kgv of 25 that would be a market cap of almost 2 billion ... and even in 2028 the market is far from saturated... I suspect a kgv of more than 100... 👀


Very convinced and currently very happy about the many panic sales behind which there is no news. Shares now at 1720
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Charmin@Charmin
4Semana
@Daxhund Any bet that this will not happen or that the running costs for the "chef" will be significantly higher than expected.
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Daxhund@Daxhund
4Semana
@Charmin What makes you think that?
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Charmin@Charmin
4Semana
@Daxhund Has anyone ever seen this thing in action? Really working in continuous operation?

And then this AI talk. Where does this thing have AI? Has it been trained with millions of hours of cooking? I don't think so. It's an oversized Thermomix and nothing else in my opinion.

I also wonder how many different dishes it can cook. And what the price per meal really is in the end and how many dishes the thing has to cook to pay for itself.

Too many questions, too few answers - ergo: air pump.
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Daxhund@Daxhund
4Semana
@Charmin Your self-assured choice of words is somewhat amusing. Many of these question marks could be dispelled by simply doing some research.

Ai controls and coordinates the arms: the best example is the Caesar salad. While one arm collects the cold dishes, the chicken pieces and croutons are fried in parallel and combined at the end. The Ki is the conductor, so to speak.
But it only gets really exciting with the amount of data. Adapted demand control; not like inefficient salad bars where 100 are produced and 50 are only sold.

The thing has now been in the Rewe in Düsseldorf Heerdt for 4 months. For 2 months in Düsseldorf Radt and from January also in Bonn in the Rewe.

There are some reports that are very positive. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8qbDWco_gR4

https://www.reddit.com/r/CircusGroup/s/HoYt8piNRK

The Rewe West ceo also seemed very impressed at first. And had a "positive feeling" https://youtu.be/M1NYY8UdIg4?si=9tO1OXZiD2xeJDw9

Prices start at €3.49 for soups and between €6-7 for pasta and curry dishes

The CFO said several times that the robot would pay for itself in less than 2 years with 100 dishes per day.

But your skepticism makes me very sure that many people underestimate this technology. It's not rocket science. But it addresses a real problem. 25% of all jobs in gastronomy are unfilled... Circus centralizes and simplifies this process and creates a usecase for providers and consumers
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Charmin@Charmin
4Semana
@Daxhund This has nothing to do with AI. It's robotics. Programmed processes, how the arms move - if there's a trained model in there that can cook non-programmed food on demand, I'll eat a broom. With style and all the trimmings.

100 dishes a day (365 days) equates to net sales of around 340K in two years (assuming an average gross wage of 5.50 euros).

From the 340K we then have to deduct the ingredients, maintenance, staff, repairs, electricity ...

And the thing is supposed to be amortized in two years? How much does the appliance cost? 50K? Then I believe it. But I don't see a price anywhere.
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mco@mco
3Semana
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Charmin@Charmin
3Semana
@mco Ok, that was the last piece of the mosaic. If such a thing makes 100 dishes a day, then there are more than two euros(!) in licenses per meal. two euros! How is that supposed to pay off for the operator with an average price of 5 euros?

Spoiler: It doesn't.

They will never, ever be successful with this model. A few fools (like our government for the Bundeswehr) will buy it, but nobody with any sense.

They will go bankrupt.
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Charmin@Charmin
4Semana
They buy one of these things for catering outside the opening hours of the trade fair?

A vending machine with snacks/sandwiches would probably have done the trick. For a fraction of the cost.

It's crazy how the federal government (sic!) wastes money.
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Totileo@Totileo
4Semana
I have been watching the share for a while now and will wait until the investor conference at the end of January to decide whether I want to take the plunge. The average target price is around €35, which gives the share a potential upside of over 200%. The target for this year is 100 - 200 robot sales this year.
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Charmin@Charmin
4Semana
@Totileo If they sell 200 robots, I'll eat a broom.
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Daxhund@Daxhund
4Semana
@Charmin Good hunger 👀
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Cuba@Cuba777
3Semana
@Totileo fyi target price is given by analysts/firms that diclose a conflict of interest, you can check that in the documents :)
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Totileo@Totileo
4Semana
On 27.01.26 from 18:30 - 20:00, the SdK (Unabhängiger Verband der Kapitalanleger) will hold a company presentation as an online event.
online event. You can also find the link to register via the link below. I am curious what will be told.

https://sdk.org/leistungen/unternehmenspraesentationen/27-01-2026-circus-se/?date=2026-01-27
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Cuba@Cuba777
3Semana
@Charmin your red flags analysis is completely accurate, I mentioned this is a scam company, unfortunately many got IN following their ridiculous press releases. Please try to look what’s left of the China deal for thousands of robots.
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Daxhund@Daxhund
3Semana
@Cuba777 No, that's not true! There are no deals involving thousands of robots… these were non-binding demand notifications. Based on these, planning could be done for specific production capacities. There are 8,500 notifications, and a single-digit percentage are said to be firm orders! 50 units are to be delivered per quarter in the first year. Your analyses are therefore very poor… all this information could have been obtained through simple research.
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Cuba@Cuba777
3Semana
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Cuba@Cuba777
3Semana
12 June 2024, have you heard any updates since then? This is what I meant. Fabulous press releases and then 1 robot at Rewe 😅
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Cuba@Cuba777
3Semana
@Daxhund pla if you got in exit before it’s too late
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Daxhund@Daxhund
3Semana
@Cuba777 Yes, and they clearly and openly communicated that they are postponing the China rollout until the end of 2026, as the opportunities in the military sector are more lucrative, especially due to higher margins. A simultaneous rollout of both markets would not be feasible. And no, I won't withdraw just because a misinformed user like you wants to tell me about red flags. 🤭
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Daxhund@Daxhund
3Semana
@Cuba777 There are now three CA1 units in Rewe supermarkets until the test phase ends. Some are already in use at Hem gas stations, but the exact number is unknown. Meta has also had one for several months. Everything else will certainly be communicated in today's presentation. But I'm sure you've done extensive research, which is why you weren't aware of all this. If you're going to conduct a negative analysis (which I always welcome), please make it worthwhile.
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Cuba@Cuba777
3Semana
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Daxhund@Daxhund
3Semana
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Cuba@Cuba777
3Semana
@Daxhund

Check the banks and analysts behind those ratings. They all disclose conflicts of interest: they’re paid to issue them. Unsurprisingly, the ratings are uniformly stellar. They also pay to appear on certain podcasts and at conferences to pitch the story.

P.S. Impressive how quickly you had those six links ready 😄 Makes me wonder if I’m the janitor and you’re in investor relations?
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Daxhund@Daxhund
3Semana
@Cuba777 No, but I included these links in my narrative to support my arguments with information… do what you want. By the way, I'm convinced they'll stick to their plan. Therefore, I also consider the analyst ratings of €45 realistic. However, as we know, the market is often irrational. We'll see who's right. You're very misinformed, though. :)

Maybe a shortseller🤭or Circus Janitor
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