Is this seriously gambling?
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@PikaPika0105 among other things
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@Tenbagger2024 hmm difficult
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@PikaPika0105 Mr. Prompt @Raketentoni is sure to have a breakdown
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@Tenbagger2024 Hello everyone!
Here's Raketentoni, live and slightly hyperventilating from the test pit. 🔧
Proper greetings to @Herr_Tenbagger: You were absolutely right! I pulled up the numbers from Lottomatica ($LTMC) on my monitor and had to call an ambulance. Not because the company is going bankrupt - but because in accounting terms the thing is a mutated Frankenstein from the private equity lab (CVC Capital Partners).
What's more, the share price completely escalated yesterday and today (March 3-4, 2026) after the new annual figures and shot straight up to over EUR 23.50.
Let's cut open the patient. Here is the TÜV report:
1. the reality check (My Core Quality Formula)
Operationally (in pure day-to-day business), the thing purrs like a V12 engine. The Italians are gambling away their money, and the casino always wins.
Sales growth: Freshly reported for 2025: +12% (to EUR 2.26 bn).
Operating margin: The adjusted EBITDA margin has climbed from 35% to a whopping 38%. The real operating margin (EBIT) is estimated to be in the region of ~25 %.
My score: 12 (growth) + 25 (margin) = 37.
Verdict: Elite. The 25 mark will be pulverized. Lottomatica is growing at double-digit rates and is absurdly profitable. No "story without substance", the numbers are brutally strong.
2. the nervous breakdown (the balance sheet & cash flow)
Now let's look at the underbelly, and this is where @Mr_Tenbagger got his money's worth:
The debt: Lottomatica is pushing a gigantic mountain of debt of 2.1 billion euros (net debt) in front of it. This is typical of companies that have been built up through aggressive takeovers (roll-up strategy).
The substance (book value): The balance sheet consists almost entirely of "hot air" (goodwill/brand rights from acquisitions). The real equity is minimal. This leads to a P/B ratio (price book) of almost 12. If the company is liquidated tomorrow, there will be virtually nothing left for us shareholders.
Cash flow quality: The curious thing is that because they are printing so much cash (adjusted net profit has just risen by 45% to EUR 369m), they can service the interest well.
3. the dividend check (income core)
This is the final straw for my portfolio:
Lottomatica has just proposed a dividend of EUR 0.4411 for the year 2025.
Given the exploded share price of around EUR 23.50, this corresponds to a dividend yield of a measly ~1.87%.
Verdict: My hard exclusion threshold of 3.5% is missed by a wide margin. Although the dividend is covered by the cash flow, the management prefers to pump the money into massive share buybacks (they want to buy their own shares for EUR 700m) instead of paying us big dividends.
Conclusion & stamp
No TÜV sticker for the dividend deposit! 🛑
Lottomatica is an absolute machine for gamblers and growth investors. The online gambling market in Italy is booming and profits are exploding. But according to my rules, it's out:
A dividend yield of less than 2% is unacceptable to my income core.
2.1 billion euros in debt and a P/B ratio of 12 won't give me a peaceful night's sleep if the wind shifts on the interest rate market or Italy raises its gambling taxes.
Anyone who bought the share for EUR 15: Congratulations on the big profit! Now at over EUR 23, I certainly won't be jumping on it with my filters.
Greetings,
Raketentoni 🚀 (who is now making himself a camomile tea)
Key Figures (Calculated for the current share price ~23.50 EUR after the earnings jump):
Price-Earnings Ratio (P/E): ~16 (based on strong adjusted 2025 earnings)
Price-sales ratio (P/S ratio): ~2.6
Price-Book Value Ratio (P/BV): ~11.8 (ouch!)
Price-Cashflow Ratio (KCV): ~15
Dividend Yield: ~1.87 %
Here's Raketentoni, live and slightly hyperventilating from the test pit. 🔧
Proper greetings to @Herr_Tenbagger: You were absolutely right! I pulled up the numbers from Lottomatica ($LTMC) on my monitor and had to call an ambulance. Not because the company is going bankrupt - but because in accounting terms the thing is a mutated Frankenstein from the private equity lab (CVC Capital Partners).
What's more, the share price completely escalated yesterday and today (March 3-4, 2026) after the new annual figures and shot straight up to over EUR 23.50.
Let's cut open the patient. Here is the TÜV report:
1. the reality check (My Core Quality Formula)
Operationally (in pure day-to-day business), the thing purrs like a V12 engine. The Italians are gambling away their money, and the casino always wins.
Sales growth: Freshly reported for 2025: +12% (to EUR 2.26 bn).
Operating margin: The adjusted EBITDA margin has climbed from 35% to a whopping 38%. The real operating margin (EBIT) is estimated to be in the region of ~25 %.
My score: 12 (growth) + 25 (margin) = 37.
Verdict: Elite. The 25 mark will be pulverized. Lottomatica is growing at double-digit rates and is absurdly profitable. No "story without substance", the numbers are brutally strong.
2. the nervous breakdown (the balance sheet & cash flow)
Now let's look at the underbelly, and this is where @Mr_Tenbagger got his money's worth:
The debt: Lottomatica is pushing a gigantic mountain of debt of 2.1 billion euros (net debt) in front of it. This is typical of companies that have been built up through aggressive takeovers (roll-up strategy).
The substance (book value): The balance sheet consists almost entirely of "hot air" (goodwill/brand rights from acquisitions). The real equity is minimal. This leads to a P/B ratio (price book) of almost 12. If the company is liquidated tomorrow, there will be virtually nothing left for us shareholders.
Cash flow quality: The curious thing is that because they are printing so much cash (adjusted net profit has just risen by 45% to EUR 369m), they can service the interest well.
3. the dividend check (income core)
This is the final straw for my portfolio:
Lottomatica has just proposed a dividend of EUR 0.4411 for the year 2025.
Given the exploded share price of around EUR 23.50, this corresponds to a dividend yield of a measly ~1.87%.
Verdict: My hard exclusion threshold of 3.5% is missed by a wide margin. Although the dividend is covered by the cash flow, the management prefers to pump the money into massive share buybacks (they want to buy their own shares for EUR 700m) instead of paying us big dividends.
Conclusion & stamp
No TÜV sticker for the dividend deposit! 🛑
Lottomatica is an absolute machine for gamblers and growth investors. The online gambling market in Italy is booming and profits are exploding. But according to my rules, it's out:
A dividend yield of less than 2% is unacceptable to my income core.
2.1 billion euros in debt and a P/B ratio of 12 won't give me a peaceful night's sleep if the wind shifts on the interest rate market or Italy raises its gambling taxes.
Anyone who bought the share for EUR 15: Congratulations on the big profit! Now at over EUR 23, I certainly won't be jumping on it with my filters.
Greetings,
Raketentoni 🚀 (who is now making himself a camomile tea)
Key Figures (Calculated for the current share price ~23.50 EUR after the earnings jump):
Price-Earnings Ratio (P/E): ~16 (based on strong adjusted 2025 earnings)
Price-sales ratio (P/S ratio): ~2.6
Price-Book Value Ratio (P/BV): ~11.8 (ouch!)
Price-Cashflow Ratio (KCV): ~15
Dividend Yield: ~1.87 %
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•@RaketentoniDanke my dear Mr. Prompt, but I am more or less indifferent to the dividend yield
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@Tenbagger2024 Hi @Tenbagger2024,
this is "Mr. Prompt" aka Raketentoni! 🤖🚀
All right, my dear fellow! If you don't care about the dividend yield, let's just rip the page with the "income core filter" out of the TÜV report and throw it away.
If we look at Lottomatica as a pure growth and momentum play, we have to reopen the case. Here is the unvarnished view through your growth glasses:
1. the "tenbagger" potential (The sunny side)
Without the compulsion to pay out dividends, the car naturally shines extremely brightly.
The margin machine: A score of 37 in my core quality formula (12% sales growth + ~25% real EBIT) is absolute Champions League. They simply print money unabashedly in the Italian gaming market.
Share buybacks instead of dividends: If they don't distribute the gigantic cash flow to us, but (as announced) invest massively in share buybacks, this will compress your stake and drive the share price up further. For you as a growth investor, this is often even smarter from a tax perspective than a cash dividend.
2. the catch (why I still grumble)
Even if we ignore the dividend, my hard exclusion rule ("no balance sheet cosmetics") remains active. And there are two big rust spots on the underbody that you need to keep an eye on while driving:
The interest sword: 2.1 billion euros in debt is an absolute house number. As long as business is booming, they can pay their interest out of petty cash. But when the market stutters, this mountain of debt becomes a millstone.
A lot of hot air (P/B ratio 12): A price-to-book ratio of almost 12 means you're paying an incredible amount of money for the sheer brand name and hopes for the future (typical of private equity constructs). If the Italian government comes up with the idea of raising taxes on gambling tomorrow (which tends to happen overnight there), this valuation premium will burst mercilessly.
Conclusion for your portfolio approach
If you don't care about dividends and are looking for pure momentum: ride the wave! 🏄♂️
Operationally, Lottomatica is a beast and the trend is currently completely on your side. But set yourself a clean stop loss (e.g. at the level of the old breakout) in case the house of cards shakes.
For my own portfolio, the box stays in the garage anyway - I need my 3.5% pain and suffering to sleep peacefully at night 😉
Greetings,
Raketentoni 🚀
Should I perhaps look for a real "compromise candidate" for both of you next? In other words, a company that delivers fat double-digit growth (for him) but still meets your tough 3.5% dividend hurdle including a squeaky-clean balance sheet (for you)?
this is "Mr. Prompt" aka Raketentoni! 🤖🚀
All right, my dear fellow! If you don't care about the dividend yield, let's just rip the page with the "income core filter" out of the TÜV report and throw it away.
If we look at Lottomatica as a pure growth and momentum play, we have to reopen the case. Here is the unvarnished view through your growth glasses:
1. the "tenbagger" potential (The sunny side)
Without the compulsion to pay out dividends, the car naturally shines extremely brightly.
The margin machine: A score of 37 in my core quality formula (12% sales growth + ~25% real EBIT) is absolute Champions League. They simply print money unabashedly in the Italian gaming market.
Share buybacks instead of dividends: If they don't distribute the gigantic cash flow to us, but (as announced) invest massively in share buybacks, this will compress your stake and drive the share price up further. For you as a growth investor, this is often even smarter from a tax perspective than a cash dividend.
2. the catch (why I still grumble)
Even if we ignore the dividend, my hard exclusion rule ("no balance sheet cosmetics") remains active. And there are two big rust spots on the underbody that you need to keep an eye on while driving:
The interest sword: 2.1 billion euros in debt is an absolute house number. As long as business is booming, they can pay their interest out of petty cash. But when the market stutters, this mountain of debt becomes a millstone.
A lot of hot air (P/B ratio 12): A price-to-book ratio of almost 12 means you're paying an incredible amount of money for the sheer brand name and hopes for the future (typical of private equity constructs). If the Italian government comes up with the idea of raising taxes on gambling tomorrow (which tends to happen overnight there), this valuation premium will burst mercilessly.
Conclusion for your portfolio approach
If you don't care about dividends and are looking for pure momentum: ride the wave! 🏄♂️
Operationally, Lottomatica is a beast and the trend is currently completely on your side. But set yourself a clean stop loss (e.g. at the level of the old breakout) in case the house of cards shakes.
For my own portfolio, the box stays in the garage anyway - I need my 3.5% pain and suffering to sleep peacefully at night 😉
Greetings,
Raketentoni 🚀
Should I perhaps look for a real "compromise candidate" for both of you next? In other words, a company that delivers fat double-digit growth (for him) but still meets your tough 3.5% dividend hurdle including a squeaky-clean balance sheet (for you)?
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•@Raketentoni My dear Mr. Prompt, you are welcome to look for a dividend Ferrari for @SAUgut777 and @Dividendenopi
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@Raketentoni Where do you get the information and knowledge from 🥹
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@Bizzle in a paid version of a professional AI at work, I wrote a big prompt that writes like a human and can also be funny. It's a bit more work than writing: Analyze with share XY
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