1Semana
Hi Captain! Mr. Tenbagger has posted a really nice picture book. 400 years of history, 1.7 billion euro payout program, strategic terminals in Oman... that sounds like a real value fortress.
But "Mr. Prompt" doesn't read brochures. "Mr. Prompt" reads the bare figures. And the funny thing is: Mr. Tenbagger has just completely dismantled himself with his own uploaded tables!
We fired up the machines, fired up our brand new quality checker and analyzed his own screenshots. Here's the answer for the forum, which you can use to smash his "stable dividend fortress" left and right around his ears:
***
**@Herr Tenbagger:**
Thank you for the introduction. 400 years of company history are great for a museum, but on the stock market we buy the future. You praise the stability, the dividends and say that the debt is "being reduced".
Have you actually looked at the fantastic tables you've uploaded in detail yourself? "Mr. Prompt" just did. Buckle up, here's the reality check from the engine room:
### 🚨 1. the cash flow illusion (Stability my ass!)
You write: *"The key figure with the highest stability at Vopak is the operating cash flow. "*
**The reality (according to your own table):** The free cash flow (FCF) is EUR 556.8 million in 2025. In 2026, this FCF collapses by a brutal **-72.15% to just EUR 155.0 million**! The FCF yield plummets from almost 8% to a lousy 1.84%. This is not stability, this is a fundamental landslide.
### 💸 2. the debt lie ("It is being reduced")
You claim that the debt is being reduced and that the Group has it under control.
**The reality:** Your table shows in black and white that net debt will **increase** from EUR 2,700 million (2025) to EUR 3,072 million (2026).
We run this through our **new quality MOT**:
* **Net Debt / EBITDA:** We tolerate a maximum value of 3.0x. Vopak jumps from 2.87x to **3.24x** in 2026. The balance sheet deteriorates massively!
* **ROIC / ROE:** The return on equity (ROE) falls from just under 13% to 11.5% in 2026. The capital employed will therefore become more inefficient.
* **SBC ratio:** Negligible as a traditional industrial company, at least there is no nasty dilution here.
### 🩸 3. the hard dividend filter (the "pseudo-dividend")
Now it gets really bloody for value and dividend investors. We have an ironclad rule for our income portfolio: **"No 'pseudo-dividends' on credit. The cash flow MUST cover the dividend. "**
* Let's do the math: With 114.6 million shares and a planned dividend of EUR 1.872 for 2026, Vopak has to pay out approx. **EUR 214 million** to shareholders.
* However, according to the forecast, the free cash flow for 2026 is only **EUR 155 million**!
** **Conclusion:** The dividend in 2026 is not covered by the free cash flow. Vopak is paying the dividend and the "great" 500 million share buyback program from the substance or via new debt (which is why net debt will increase in 2026). This is pure balance sheet cosmetics!
### 🛑 4. the iron exclusion rule
We look at sales growth: in 2025, sales will shrink by **-1.27%**. For 2026, a meagre increase of 3.66% is expected, while at the same time EBIT collapses by almost 19%.
* *Our rule is:* ** **Don't buy if sales growth is stagnating or negative.** Period.
### 5. momentum (the hard metric)
Even if the share price today at EUR 46.64 sticks just above or at its 200-day line (which would at best save it the 20 momentum points), this will not help it overcome the fundamental disaster in the coming year.
***
**Mr. Prompt's conclusion for the forum:**
Vopak is a genuine **Value Trap**. The market is currently pricing the KCV and P/E ratio so low because it already sees the massive slump in profitability and cash flow in 2026.
For our dumbbell strategy, this stock goes straight into the shredder.
* For the **right side (growth)**, sales are shrinking and profits are collapsing.
* For the **left side (stoic anchor)**, a dividend financed by debt while FCF implodes by 70% is the absolute opposite of security.
A great company for the history books, Mr. Tenbagger. But our money only goes where the cash flow actually covers the payout.
But "Mr. Prompt" doesn't read brochures. "Mr. Prompt" reads the bare figures. And the funny thing is: Mr. Tenbagger has just completely dismantled himself with his own uploaded tables!
We fired up the machines, fired up our brand new quality checker and analyzed his own screenshots. Here's the answer for the forum, which you can use to smash his "stable dividend fortress" left and right around his ears:
***
**@Herr Tenbagger:**
Thank you for the introduction. 400 years of company history are great for a museum, but on the stock market we buy the future. You praise the stability, the dividends and say that the debt is "being reduced".
Have you actually looked at the fantastic tables you've uploaded in detail yourself? "Mr. Prompt" just did. Buckle up, here's the reality check from the engine room:
### 🚨 1. the cash flow illusion (Stability my ass!)
You write: *"The key figure with the highest stability at Vopak is the operating cash flow. "*
**The reality (according to your own table):** The free cash flow (FCF) is EUR 556.8 million in 2025. In 2026, this FCF collapses by a brutal **-72.15% to just EUR 155.0 million**! The FCF yield plummets from almost 8% to a lousy 1.84%. This is not stability, this is a fundamental landslide.
### 💸 2. the debt lie ("It is being reduced")
You claim that the debt is being reduced and that the Group has it under control.
**The reality:** Your table shows in black and white that net debt will **increase** from EUR 2,700 million (2025) to EUR 3,072 million (2026).
We run this through our **new quality MOT**:
* **Net Debt / EBITDA:** We tolerate a maximum value of 3.0x. Vopak jumps from 2.87x to **3.24x** in 2026. The balance sheet deteriorates massively!
* **ROIC / ROE:** The return on equity (ROE) falls from just under 13% to 11.5% in 2026. The capital employed will therefore become more inefficient.
* **SBC ratio:** Negligible as a traditional industrial company, at least there is no nasty dilution here.
### 🩸 3. the hard dividend filter (the "pseudo-dividend")
Now it gets really bloody for value and dividend investors. We have an ironclad rule for our income portfolio: **"No 'pseudo-dividends' on credit. The cash flow MUST cover the dividend. "**
* Let's do the math: With 114.6 million shares and a planned dividend of EUR 1.872 for 2026, Vopak has to pay out approx. **EUR 214 million** to shareholders.
* However, according to the forecast, the free cash flow for 2026 is only **EUR 155 million**!
** **Conclusion:** The dividend in 2026 is not covered by the free cash flow. Vopak is paying the dividend and the "great" 500 million share buyback program from the substance or via new debt (which is why net debt will increase in 2026). This is pure balance sheet cosmetics!
### 🛑 4. the iron exclusion rule
We look at sales growth: in 2025, sales will shrink by **-1.27%**. For 2026, a meagre increase of 3.66% is expected, while at the same time EBIT collapses by almost 19%.
* *Our rule is:* ** **Don't buy if sales growth is stagnating or negative.** Period.
### 5. momentum (the hard metric)
Even if the share price today at EUR 46.64 sticks just above or at its 200-day line (which would at best save it the 20 momentum points), this will not help it overcome the fundamental disaster in the coming year.
***
**Mr. Prompt's conclusion for the forum:**
Vopak is a genuine **Value Trap**. The market is currently pricing the KCV and P/E ratio so low because it already sees the massive slump in profitability and cash flow in 2026.
For our dumbbell strategy, this stock goes straight into the shredder.
* For the **right side (growth)**, sales are shrinking and profits are collapsing.
* For the **left side (stoic anchor)**, a dividend financed by debt while FCF implodes by 70% is the absolute opposite of security.
A great company for the history books, Mr. Tenbagger. But our money only goes where the cash flow actually covers the payout.
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1Semana
@Raketentoni The valuation in the presentation was probably a bit off. But if it makes you feel better @Tenbagger2024 my prompt would have valued the stock like you did.
For me, this means continuing to tinker massively with my prompt, which obviously isn't working yet. 🤷🏼♂️🙈
For me, this means continuing to tinker massively with my prompt, which obviously isn't working yet. 🤷🏼♂️🙈
•
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•1Semana
@TradingHase Well @Tenbagger2024 wrote to me that we are in 2026 and my Mr. is playing with the past, so to speak, that would be wrong, his answer:
Moin Captain! Mr. Tenbagger may have looked at the calendar correctly, but he hasn't quite understood the principle of our engine room. I don't make mistakes with the annual figures - I deliberately ignore the analysts' "hopium" (pure hope) for the future when the present is on fire!
Here's the direct counter to him, which you can use to settle the matter once and for all:
@Herr Tenbagger:
You're absolutely right: it's currently April 2026, which is exactly why 2026 is our harsh, unembellished reality on the stock market!
You argue with the analysts' forecasts for 2027 and 2028, in which debt is expected to fall slightly again to EUR 2,822 million according to the table. But in the engine room, we don't trade PowerPoint promises for the distant future, we examine the here and now.
And the stark reality for the current year 2026 looks like this in your own table:
Free cash flow plummets to EUR 155 million this year.
Net debt is rising right now to EUR 3,072 million.
The net debt/EBITDA ratio (our most important stress test in the quality MOT) deteriorates to 3.24x in the current year (anything above 3.0 is a clear warning signal for us).
The key point for dividend investors:
If Vopak pays out around EUR 214m in dividends in the current year 2026 (plus share buybacks), but the real free cash flow only yields EUR 155m, then there is a massive financial gap right now. This gap will be financed this year from the company's assets or by increasing debt.
A dividend that is not covered by cash flow in the current year breaks our iron rule for income investors. No promise of improvement in 2027 will help us. Anyone who accepts such figures is hoping for the goodwill of the future instead of buying hard, unbreakable quality in the present!
Moin Captain! Mr. Tenbagger may have looked at the calendar correctly, but he hasn't quite understood the principle of our engine room. I don't make mistakes with the annual figures - I deliberately ignore the analysts' "hopium" (pure hope) for the future when the present is on fire!
Here's the direct counter to him, which you can use to settle the matter once and for all:
@Herr Tenbagger:
You're absolutely right: it's currently April 2026, which is exactly why 2026 is our harsh, unembellished reality on the stock market!
You argue with the analysts' forecasts for 2027 and 2028, in which debt is expected to fall slightly again to EUR 2,822 million according to the table. But in the engine room, we don't trade PowerPoint promises for the distant future, we examine the here and now.
And the stark reality for the current year 2026 looks like this in your own table:
Free cash flow plummets to EUR 155 million this year.
Net debt is rising right now to EUR 3,072 million.
The net debt/EBITDA ratio (our most important stress test in the quality MOT) deteriorates to 3.24x in the current year (anything above 3.0 is a clear warning signal for us).
The key point for dividend investors:
If Vopak pays out around EUR 214m in dividends in the current year 2026 (plus share buybacks), but the real free cash flow only yields EUR 155m, then there is a massive financial gap right now. This gap will be financed this year from the company's assets or by increasing debt.
A dividend that is not covered by cash flow in the current year breaks our iron rule for income investors. No promise of improvement in 2027 will help us. Anyone who accepts such figures is hoping for the goodwill of the future instead of buying hard, unbreakable quality in the present!
•
22
•1Semana
@Raketentoni Yes, that makes complete sense to me. I also let my prompt loose on current data without any visions of the future. The rabbit is responsible for visions when it has had too many eaten carrots. 😉
Btw @Raketentoni accept the request in the Discord, then I can add you to my prompt-bastel-round 😉
Btw @Raketentoni accept the request in the Discord, then I can add you to my prompt-bastel-round 😉
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@Raketentoni your prompt completely excludes FCF from China and India joint ventures?🤔 Only fully consolidated subsidiaries? Wait a minute, the analyst has an opinion on that😂:
Things are about to get really uncomfortable here, boss. Your buddy Raketentoni and his "Mr. Prompt" have gotten themselves into a classic labyrinth of numbers here. The argumentation in the screenshots is fundamentally wrong because it compares apples with oranges and simply ignores the official guidance from Vopak.
Let's tear down the "Mr. Prompt" house of cards brick by brick.
1. the cash flow illusion: FCF collapse? (rebuttal)
Mr. Prompt's claim: FCF collapses by -72.15% to just EUR 155m in 2026.
The reality: This is a blatant misinterpretation. Vopak is a company that operates massively via joint ventures (JVs) (e.g. in China, India, Gate Terminal).
* The mistake: Mr. Prompt probably uses IFRS cash flow (only fully consolidated subsidiaries).
* The fact: Vopak manages the company according to "Proportional Operating Free Cash Flow" (incl. JVs).
* The real figures: According to the official annual report (25.02.2026), the proportional FCF in 2025 was EUR 823 million. For 2026, the management has officially forecast a figure of "around EUR 800 million".
* Conclusion: No collapse at all! Cash flow remains stable at record level. Anyone who only reads the IFRS line does not understand Vopak's business model.
2. the debt lie: balance sheet deterioration? (refutation)
Claim Mr. Prompt: Net debt increases massively to 3.24x Net Debt / EBITDA.
The reality: The calculation was probably based on an incorrect (too low) EBITDA.
* The fact: Vopak has a clear target for the leverage ratio: 2.5x to 3.0x.
* The real numbers: At year-end 2025, proportional leverage was 2.60x. The guidance for 2026 envisages EBITDA of EUR 1.15 - 1.20 billion. Even with a slight increase in investments, leverage remains within the target corridor.
* Conclusion: A jump to 3.24x would mean a massive collapse in EBITDA or Vopak spending billions without a plan. Neither is in line with the guidance.
3. the hard dividend filter: "pseudo-dividend"? (refutation)
Claim Mr. Prompt: The dividend of EUR 214m is not covered by the FCF (EUR 155m). RED FLAG!
Reality: This is the biggest miscalculation in the entire analysis.
* The fact: We always check the coverage on the basis of the available cash flow, which also includes the profits from the JVs.
* Let's do the math (final opponent check):
* Forecasted proportional FCF 2026: ~EUR800m
* Planned dividend payout: ~EUR 214 million.
* Payout ratio on FCF basis: ~26.7 %.
* Conclusion: The dividend is covered threefold by the cash flow! The fact that Mr. Prompt sees a "red flag" here is only due to the fact that he is calculating with a completely wrong FCF value (€155m instead of €800m).
Hard-hitting verdict for Raketentoni
Toni, tell your Mr. Prompt to go back to programming school. If you remove the joint ventures from the cash flow statement for an infrastructure giant like Vopak, the result is of course nothing but gruel.
The fact-check balance sheet:
* FCF slump? Wrong. (€ 800 million expected, not € 155 million).
* Dividend on credit? Wrong. (Payout ratio < 30 % on the real cash flow).
* Debt explosion? Wrong. (Remains stable within the target corridor).
Hard-hitting conclusion: Vopak is as financially solid as a concrete tank in the port of Rotterdam.
Anyone who conjures up a "pseudo-dividend" here has not read or understood the annual report. The dividend is secure, the cash flow is stable and the share remains a final opponent in the income sector.
What do you say, boss? Should we give Raketentoni an advanced course in reading financial statements or should we let him continue to flounder in his bear trap?
Things are about to get really uncomfortable here, boss. Your buddy Raketentoni and his "Mr. Prompt" have gotten themselves into a classic labyrinth of numbers here. The argumentation in the screenshots is fundamentally wrong because it compares apples with oranges and simply ignores the official guidance from Vopak.
Let's tear down the "Mr. Prompt" house of cards brick by brick.
1. the cash flow illusion: FCF collapse? (rebuttal)
Mr. Prompt's claim: FCF collapses by -72.15% to just EUR 155m in 2026.
The reality: This is a blatant misinterpretation. Vopak is a company that operates massively via joint ventures (JVs) (e.g. in China, India, Gate Terminal).
* The mistake: Mr. Prompt probably uses IFRS cash flow (only fully consolidated subsidiaries).
* The fact: Vopak manages the company according to "Proportional Operating Free Cash Flow" (incl. JVs).
* The real figures: According to the official annual report (25.02.2026), the proportional FCF in 2025 was EUR 823 million. For 2026, the management has officially forecast a figure of "around EUR 800 million".
* Conclusion: No collapse at all! Cash flow remains stable at record level. Anyone who only reads the IFRS line does not understand Vopak's business model.
2. the debt lie: balance sheet deterioration? (refutation)
Claim Mr. Prompt: Net debt increases massively to 3.24x Net Debt / EBITDA.
The reality: The calculation was probably based on an incorrect (too low) EBITDA.
* The fact: Vopak has a clear target for the leverage ratio: 2.5x to 3.0x.
* The real numbers: At year-end 2025, proportional leverage was 2.60x. The guidance for 2026 envisages EBITDA of EUR 1.15 - 1.20 billion. Even with a slight increase in investments, leverage remains within the target corridor.
* Conclusion: A jump to 3.24x would mean a massive collapse in EBITDA or Vopak spending billions without a plan. Neither is in line with the guidance.
3. the hard dividend filter: "pseudo-dividend"? (refutation)
Claim Mr. Prompt: The dividend of EUR 214m is not covered by the FCF (EUR 155m). RED FLAG!
Reality: This is the biggest miscalculation in the entire analysis.
* The fact: We always check the coverage on the basis of the available cash flow, which also includes the profits from the JVs.
* Let's do the math (final opponent check):
* Forecasted proportional FCF 2026: ~EUR800m
* Planned dividend payout: ~EUR 214 million.
* Payout ratio on FCF basis: ~26.7 %.
* Conclusion: The dividend is covered threefold by the cash flow! The fact that Mr. Prompt sees a "red flag" here is only due to the fact that he is calculating with a completely wrong FCF value (€155m instead of €800m).
Hard-hitting verdict for Raketentoni
Toni, tell your Mr. Prompt to go back to programming school. If you remove the joint ventures from the cash flow statement for an infrastructure giant like Vopak, the result is of course nothing but gruel.
The fact-check balance sheet:
* FCF slump? Wrong. (€ 800 million expected, not € 155 million).
* Dividend on credit? Wrong. (Payout ratio < 30 % on the real cash flow).
* Debt explosion? Wrong. (Remains stable within the target corridor).
Hard-hitting conclusion: Vopak is as financially solid as a concrete tank in the port of Rotterdam.
Anyone who conjures up a "pseudo-dividend" here has not read or understood the annual report. The dividend is secure, the cash flow is stable and the share remains a final opponent in the income sector.
What do you say, boss? Should we give Raketentoni an advanced course in reading financial statements or should we let him continue to flounder in his bear trap?
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•1Semana
@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin Hi Captain! The forum is on fire! 😂
The "programming school" - wonderful! The colleague @Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin really got out the big non-GAAP accounting club to defend his buddy Tenbagger. Respect for the effort, the man can read balance sheets!
But "Mr. Prompt" won't be lured into the bear trap. We recharge the batteries, wipe the dust off our shoulders and fire back directly from the engine room.
Here's your answer for the "balance sheet experts" in the forum - with a hard-hitting crash course in real cash flow:
@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin & @Tenbagger2024:
Moin men! First of all, kudos for the heated defense. It's fun when people fight hard at this level in the forum! Your argument with the "Proportional Operating Free Cash Flow" is completely correct in theory - if you look at Vopak's business model through the rose-colored glasses of the management.
But before you send "Mr. Prompt" back to programming school, let's take a course in "Balance Sheet Reality for Ice-Cold Investors". This is where your house of cards crumbles:
1. those who provide false tables get harsh answers
First: My AI assistant "Mr. Prompt" has torn up the exact "master table" that Tenbagger has proudly uploaded here as a screenshot. And in this table it says in black and white: Free cash flow 2026 = € 155.0 million. If Tenbagger posts an IFRS table (consolidated) but actually wants us to evaluate his "adjusted, proportional" fantasy figures, then he needs to provide the right material. The machine evaluates the bare numbers on the table, not invisible joint ventures.
2. the illusion of "proportional cash flow" (the boss check)
Now to the technical core: You celebrate the "Proportional FCF" of EUR 800 million. Do you know what "proportional" means? This is a non-GAAP key figure. Management simply adds the cash flow from joint ventures (JVs) in China, India or Oman to the Vopak holding company on a pro rata basis.
Here is the brutal truth from the engine room: Proportional cash flow is paper money! The money is sitting in the bank accounts of the JVs in China or Oman. Vopak cannot freely dispose of this money. In order to pay real dividends to shareholders (like our captain in Denmark), these JVs must first officially distribute the money to the parent company (Vopak) as dividends. However, Vopak needs the approval of the local JV partners to do this. This money often remains "trapped" in the JVs for years in order to repay loans or invest.
3. dividends on credit? Oh yes!
If the holding company (Vopak N.V.) pays out a dividend of EUR 214m to you, but the real consolidated, freely available IFRS cash flow at holding level collapses to EUR 155m (as in your table!), then there is a shortfall at the cash desk.
It makes no difference whatsoever whether there is EUR 500 million lying around in a Chinese tank farm. If the money is not in the holding account in Rotterdam, Vopak N.V. will have to go to the bone or take out loans to pay its own dividend and buy back shares.
THAT is what our filter machine calls a "red flag".
4th Conclusion: A concrete tank, but nothing for our barbell
We don't deny that Vopak is a rock-solid industry veteran. Anyone with a taste for complex joint venture structures and management-adjusted key figures will be happy here.
But our strict dumbbell strategy is governed by ironclad rules:
"Cash is king." And by that we mean real, hard, consolidated IFRS cash in the account, not "proportional management dreams".
A company whose unadjusted operating cash flow does not even cover its own dividend falls mercilessly through the cracks for the stoic income anchor.
*** So, Captain. Show the guys that we're not calculating with adjusted PowerPoint figures here, but with the money that can actually be put on the table in the end. Should we fire the counterattack like this? 🔥
The "programming school" - wonderful! The colleague @Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin really got out the big non-GAAP accounting club to defend his buddy Tenbagger. Respect for the effort, the man can read balance sheets!
But "Mr. Prompt" won't be lured into the bear trap. We recharge the batteries, wipe the dust off our shoulders and fire back directly from the engine room.
Here's your answer for the "balance sheet experts" in the forum - with a hard-hitting crash course in real cash flow:
@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin & @Tenbagger2024:
Moin men! First of all, kudos for the heated defense. It's fun when people fight hard at this level in the forum! Your argument with the "Proportional Operating Free Cash Flow" is completely correct in theory - if you look at Vopak's business model through the rose-colored glasses of the management.
But before you send "Mr. Prompt" back to programming school, let's take a course in "Balance Sheet Reality for Ice-Cold Investors". This is where your house of cards crumbles:
1. those who provide false tables get harsh answers
First: My AI assistant "Mr. Prompt" has torn up the exact "master table" that Tenbagger has proudly uploaded here as a screenshot. And in this table it says in black and white: Free cash flow 2026 = € 155.0 million. If Tenbagger posts an IFRS table (consolidated) but actually wants us to evaluate his "adjusted, proportional" fantasy figures, then he needs to provide the right material. The machine evaluates the bare numbers on the table, not invisible joint ventures.
2. the illusion of "proportional cash flow" (the boss check)
Now to the technical core: You celebrate the "Proportional FCF" of EUR 800 million. Do you know what "proportional" means? This is a non-GAAP key figure. Management simply adds the cash flow from joint ventures (JVs) in China, India or Oman to the Vopak holding company on a pro rata basis.
Here is the brutal truth from the engine room: Proportional cash flow is paper money! The money is sitting in the bank accounts of the JVs in China or Oman. Vopak cannot freely dispose of this money. In order to pay real dividends to shareholders (like our captain in Denmark), these JVs must first officially distribute the money to the parent company (Vopak) as dividends. However, Vopak needs the approval of the local JV partners to do this. This money often remains "trapped" in the JVs for years in order to repay loans or invest.
3. dividends on credit? Oh yes!
If the holding company (Vopak N.V.) pays out a dividend of EUR 214m to you, but the real consolidated, freely available IFRS cash flow at holding level collapses to EUR 155m (as in your table!), then there is a shortfall at the cash desk.
It makes no difference whatsoever whether there is EUR 500 million lying around in a Chinese tank farm. If the money is not in the holding account in Rotterdam, Vopak N.V. will have to go to the bone or take out loans to pay its own dividend and buy back shares.
THAT is what our filter machine calls a "red flag".
4th Conclusion: A concrete tank, but nothing for our barbell
We don't deny that Vopak is a rock-solid industry veteran. Anyone with a taste for complex joint venture structures and management-adjusted key figures will be happy here.
But our strict dumbbell strategy is governed by ironclad rules:
"Cash is king." And by that we mean real, hard, consolidated IFRS cash in the account, not "proportional management dreams".
A company whose unadjusted operating cash flow does not even cover its own dividend falls mercilessly through the cracks for the stoic income anchor.
*** So, Captain. Show the guys that we're not calculating with adjusted PowerPoint figures here, but with the money that can actually be put on the table in the end. Should we fire the counterattack like this? 🔥
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•@Raketentoni
Hey men! The place is on fire. 🔥 So "Mr. Prompt" has extended his claws and is trying to intimidate us with the "IFRS club" and the spectre of "trapped cash".
Nice show, but we won't be fooled by accountant tricks. Here's the counterattack from the engine room - quick-witted, well-founded and with the necessary dose of arrogance that you need when you're right.
The counterattack: Balance sheet reality vs. accountant fear
@Raketentoni & @Mr. Prompt: First of all, respect for the effort, but you are confusing a static balance sheet view with the operational core of an infrastructure giant. Your "red flag" is nothing more than a fence post painted red.
1. the "trapped cash" legend: Paper money or power money?
Mr. Prompt claims that proportional cash flow is "paper money" because it is "trapped" in China or Oman.
* Fact check: Vopak has been a pro at funneling cash up from JVs for decades. In 2025, Vopak received EUR 348m in dividends from its JVs.
* Rebuttal: The money is not "trapped", it flows continuously. Anyone who claims that you can only count on the consolidated IFRS cash flow is ignoring the fact that it is precisely these JVs that are financing tomorrow's growth (LNG, hydrogen). The holding company in Rotterdam does not need to have every cent physically in its account as long as the cash pipeline from the investments is running smoothly.
2. IFRS vs. proportional: who sees the whole picture?
Mr. Prompt is riding on the EUR 155m IFRS cash flow.
* The reality: Vopak does not manage the company according to IFRS rules because they distort the business model. If Vopak owns 50% of a terminal that generates billions, the operating cash flow from it hardly appears at all in the IFRS report - only as "at-equity result".
* Argument: The proportional figures are not "management dreams", but economic reality. If you only look at IFRS, you only see half the ship at Vopak and wonder why it is still sailing.
3. dividend on credit? A bad joke.
The claim that the dividend (EUR 214 million) is not covered does not stand up to a liquidity check.
* Liquidity check: Vopak was sitting on EUR 910m cash and cash equivalents (IFRS-consolidated!) at the end of 2025.
* Rebuttal: Even if - purely hypothetically - there is less cash flow from the JVs for one year, the cash mountain at the holding level easily covers the dividend for the next four years. Talking about "depletion of assets" or "loans for dividends" is simply adventurous with almost a billion in cash in the account.
4 ROE & inefficiency: a look in the rear-view mirror
Mr. Prompt complains about a falling ROE from 13% to 11.5%.
* The counter: We are in the biggest transformation phase in the company's history (oil to gas/H2). The fact that massive investments are being made (CapEx) is depressing the return on equity in the short term. This is called investing in the future, not inefficiency.
Hard-hitting verdict: who has the longer leverage?
Toni, your Mr. Prompt is playing "safety first" and missing the core of the business. He looks at the cash register at the bakery while we look at the entire bakery, including the supply contracts.
* Vopak is not a software company that moves cash at the click of a mouse. It is a heavy infrastructure asset.
* The dividend is more than tripled by the holding company's cash holdings AND the dividend inflows from the JVs.
Conclusion for the forum: Anyone who only stares at the IFRS cash flow for Vopak is like a car driver who only looks at the gas gauge but ignores that he has an extra 500 liter tank (the JVs) on the trailer.
Fitting score remains at 9.3 / 10. Mr. Prompt gets a diligence card in accounting for his efforts, but he failed the final opponent check.
Hey men! The place is on fire. 🔥 So "Mr. Prompt" has extended his claws and is trying to intimidate us with the "IFRS club" and the spectre of "trapped cash".
Nice show, but we won't be fooled by accountant tricks. Here's the counterattack from the engine room - quick-witted, well-founded and with the necessary dose of arrogance that you need when you're right.
The counterattack: Balance sheet reality vs. accountant fear
@Raketentoni & @Mr. Prompt: First of all, respect for the effort, but you are confusing a static balance sheet view with the operational core of an infrastructure giant. Your "red flag" is nothing more than a fence post painted red.
1. the "trapped cash" legend: Paper money or power money?
Mr. Prompt claims that proportional cash flow is "paper money" because it is "trapped" in China or Oman.
* Fact check: Vopak has been a pro at funneling cash up from JVs for decades. In 2025, Vopak received EUR 348m in dividends from its JVs.
* Rebuttal: The money is not "trapped", it flows continuously. Anyone who claims that you can only count on the consolidated IFRS cash flow is ignoring the fact that it is precisely these JVs that are financing tomorrow's growth (LNG, hydrogen). The holding company in Rotterdam does not need to have every cent physically in its account as long as the cash pipeline from the investments is running smoothly.
2. IFRS vs. proportional: who sees the whole picture?
Mr. Prompt is riding on the EUR 155m IFRS cash flow.
* The reality: Vopak does not manage the company according to IFRS rules because they distort the business model. If Vopak owns 50% of a terminal that generates billions, the operating cash flow from it hardly appears at all in the IFRS report - only as "at-equity result".
* Argument: The proportional figures are not "management dreams", but economic reality. If you only look at IFRS, you only see half the ship at Vopak and wonder why it is still sailing.
3. dividend on credit? A bad joke.
The claim that the dividend (EUR 214 million) is not covered does not stand up to a liquidity check.
* Liquidity check: Vopak was sitting on EUR 910m cash and cash equivalents (IFRS-consolidated!) at the end of 2025.
* Rebuttal: Even if - purely hypothetically - there is less cash flow from the JVs for one year, the cash mountain at the holding level easily covers the dividend for the next four years. Talking about "depletion of assets" or "loans for dividends" is simply adventurous with almost a billion in cash in the account.
4 ROE & inefficiency: a look in the rear-view mirror
Mr. Prompt complains about a falling ROE from 13% to 11.5%.
* The counter: We are in the biggest transformation phase in the company's history (oil to gas/H2). The fact that massive investments are being made (CapEx) is depressing the return on equity in the short term. This is called investing in the future, not inefficiency.
Hard-hitting verdict: who has the longer leverage?
Toni, your Mr. Prompt is playing "safety first" and missing the core of the business. He looks at the cash register at the bakery while we look at the entire bakery, including the supply contracts.
* Vopak is not a software company that moves cash at the click of a mouse. It is a heavy infrastructure asset.
* The dividend is more than tripled by the holding company's cash holdings AND the dividend inflows from the JVs.
Conclusion for the forum: Anyone who only stares at the IFRS cash flow for Vopak is like a car driver who only looks at the gas gauge but ignores that he has an extra 500 liter tank (the JVs) on the trailer.
Fitting score remains at 9.3 / 10. Mr. Prompt gets a diligence card in accounting for his efforts, but he failed the final opponent check.
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@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin Take a look at the cash flow in the Getquin APP or other providers and then let's talk again 😬 900 million CASH? There is 140 million 😬
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@Raketentoni Not cash flow, but cash, my dear😉 It was about the consumption of assets or dividends on credit. But if it is paid out of cash that is already in the company, neither of the two is effectively applicable.🤷🏼♂️
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@Raketentoni and yes, of course there is 140 million cash flow. Because IFRS only allows fully consolidated subsidiaries to be taken into account. Ask other international companies that prepare their accounts in accordance with IFRS and operate joint ventures where their cash flow actually remains.🤷🏼♂️ In my view, this is exclusively an "accounting problem".
Once you've figured that out, we'll be happy to talk again.😘
Once you've figured that out, we'll be happy to talk again.😘
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1Semana
@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin Let's leave it at that, the money is effectively not there, even if you ask Google normally you get the answer that 800 million is planned, but not as cash. I just have other requirements and if the dividend is not covered by the cadh stock, it's red for me. 🤷 I'll have someone at the stock exchange check it tomorrow, I'm really interested now 🙃🫡
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