Hi Chris, that is a sophisticated take on the situation. Your shift from $SLB to $COP tells the difference between a "service play" and a "recovery play." While $SLB wins if people start drilling, $COP wins if the legal architecture of the entire country is rewritten. If you want a steady hand, it's still $CVX. If you want a greater "turnaround" play based on legal restitution, $COP is the smarter pick imo as you said yourself. ;)
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@Eldorados4 Well, Donald Trump has said that the main beneficiaries should be those who were expropriated at the time. $COP even has a legally enforceable claim. As this was created 15 years ago, the wider market is probably not yet aware of this. I would also not take the share, but a derivative to take advantage of this effect.
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•@Multibagger Damn, your right on the enforceable claim, and using derivatives would certainly capture the volatility of a legal breakthrough better than the equity itself. However, do you think the market is discounting the 'time to settlement' too heavily? Even with a legally enforceable claim, these international restitutions can drag on for years regardless of who is in office.
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•@Eldorados4 For me, it would rather be a few days' trade on the communicated results of tomorrow's meeting between the US administration and the oil multinationals
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@Eldorados4 For me it would rather be a one or a few day trade on the results of tomorrow's meeting between the US government and the oil multinationals. So something like the MM5GDA, far out of the money, 9 months maturity without KO and a leverage of 22. Then a relatively short upward swing of the share is enough for me and if that doesn't happen, the loss is not big.
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