2D·

Venezuela! Who will win?

So at this late hour, a few more thoughts on the topic and the results of my research.

After I was still clearly in favor of $SLB (+1,7 %) I now see the profiteer with the greatest leverage as actually being $COP (-0,9 %) ! They were expropriated by Maduro's predecessor Chavez in 2007. Unlike $CVX (+2,03 %) they took action against it at the time and were awarded $8.37 billion. The value is now estimated at $10 billion due to interest etc. As Venezuela will certainly not be able to pay the money, it can be assumed that it will be exchanged for real assets such as exclusive production rights, preferential export quotas or joint ventures. This would give $COP access to reserves and cash flows without first having to make large investments like its competitors.

I think if I wanted to play the Venezuela card, I would therefore $COP (-0,9 %) as a top pick.

15 Comentarios

Eldorados4@Eldorados4

Hi Chris, that is a sophisticated take on the situation. Your shift from $SLB to $COP tells the difference between a "service play" and a "recovery play." While $SLB wins if people start drilling, $COP wins if the legal architecture of the entire country is rewritten. If you want a steady hand, it's still $CVX. If you want a greater "turnaround" play based on legal restitution, $COP is the smarter pick imo as you said yourself. ;)

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Chris@Multibagger

@Eldorados4 Well, Donald Trump has said that the main beneficiaries should be those who were expropriated at the time. $COP even has a legally enforceable claim. As this was created 15 years ago, the wider market is probably not yet aware of this. I would also not take the share, but a derivative to take advantage of this effect.

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Eldorados4@Eldorados4

@Multibagger Damn, your right on the enforceable claim, and using derivatives would certainly capture the volatility of a legal breakthrough better than the equity itself. However, do you think the market is discounting the 'time to settlement' too heavily? Even with a legally enforceable claim, these international restitutions can drag on for years regardless of who is in office.

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Chris@Multibagger

@Eldorados4 For me, it would rather be a few days' trade on the communicated results of tomorrow's meeting between the US administration and the oil multinationals

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Chris@Multibagger

@Eldorados4 For me it would rather be a one or a few day trade on the results of tomorrow's meeting between the US government and the oil multinationals. So something like the MM5GDA, far out of the money, 9 months maturity without KO and a leverage of 22. Then a relatively short upward swing of the share is enough for me and if that doesn't happen, the loss is not big.

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OberstvonGatow@OberstvonGatow

Good morning Chris,
would you like to play the card?

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Chris@Multibagger

@OberstvonGatow I will decide that in the short term and it would be more of a short-term gamble on the reaction of the markets when the results of the talks between the US administration and the three oil multinationals are announced tomorrow. In the medium to long term, this is not an investment case for me.

https://www.n-tv.de/wirtschaft/Trumps-Traum-vom-Oel-Boom-kollidiert-mit-der-Realitaet-id30213424.html

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Klein-Anleger@Klein-Anleger

Off-topic: I'm currently looking for a sixth growth stock for my portfolio. I found Upstart Holdings today... $UPST What do you think of the company? They should benefit considerably from falling interest rates and the valuation is also quite ok for the growth... @Tenbagger2024 maybe something for you too 😜 your intern is researching 😎

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Chris@Multibagger

@Klein-Anleger I already had them last year, but they were dropped again due to a lack of suitable development. I'd rather bet on $LMND. I'm more likely to see a positive development there than with a company that has lost 90% since the high. But it could still work out in the long term. You're also missing the pharma/biotech sector among your long-term growth stocks, aren't you? Then take a look around there.

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Klein-Anleger@Klein-Anleger

@Multibagger I was talking to ChatGPT about my portfolio. I was interested to see if Palantir would be a good fit because I find the growth over the next few years impressive and he suggested Upstart. I liked the figures: 2025 (forecast):
Turnover: USD 1.036 billion
Profit: +51.6 million USD
2026 (forecast):
Turnover: USD 1.264 bn
Profit: USD +133 million
2027 (forecast):
Sales: USD 1.498 billion
Profit: +179m USD and that's why I thought I'd ask if anyone here knows the company... Which biotech stock do you have on your radar? You were pretty convinced of BNTX, but the share price is currently falling in the longer term and the prospects are pretty uncertain, or what do you think?

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Klein-Anleger@Klein-Anleger

@Multibagger How highly do you rate the success of BNTX mind achieving a breakthrough? What is your long-term approach? I just have the feeling that nothing has been happening for quite some time and that they're just burning money 💁🙈 If they make the breakthrough, where do you see the company then? I think you once wrote this down, but I can't find a post about it in a hurry 😏

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Chris@Multibagger

@Klein-Anleger That is not correct. You published positive study results last year, acquired Curevac and agreed a partnership with $BMY. The clinical trial is due to be completed this year and if positive, which I assume it will be, they will apply for approval. They have a total of 16 pipeline candidates and I think that there will definitely be 3-4 blockbusters among them that could drive the share price towards 400-500$ by 2030.

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

@Klein-Anleger
I am already in this area at $FICO and $GFT.
GFT could perhaps be of interest to you now, it is hanging on the 200-day line.
For biotech I went to $MIRM

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trade_samurai_721@trade_samurai_721

@Klein-Anleger I had these "several times" in my portfolio. Very volatile. I gambled a little with this share 😃

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Tobi@Tobiwankenobi500

Hey Chris - just started my gamble here with three positions - COP and Chevron are included :)

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