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@Tenbagger2024
100% agreement, Tenbagger! You literally speak from my soul and hit the nail on the head. PYR is a painful but perfect example from the past.
It always starts with euphoria and a gigantic vision. But you're absolutely right: when the hype fades, at the end of the day all that counts on the stock market are the bare figures. A good story pays neither salaries nor dividends, but only hard, cold cash flow and scalability.
That's exactly why this stock is such a massive outlier for us. When we run Desert Control through our established AOK filter (our core quality formula: Sales Growth + Operating Margin or the Free Cash Flow filter), the warning light goes on blazing. The operating margin is deep red and the cash burn is high. According to our strict exclusion rules (no buy if the story is bigger than the numbers), this is actually an absolute no-go for the core portfolio.
Why are we still in it with a tiny position? Because we are not treating this share as a classic "investment", but as an asymmetric venture capital ticket. We know very well that if the PAYS contracts in the USA do not translate into tangible, hard sales in the next 12 to 18 months, Desert Control will go exactly the same way as the companies you mentioned. Then they will disappear into oblivion (and our commitment will go to zero).
But IF the leverage now takes hold in California and the numbers suddenly back up the story... then we want to be in the seat on that bet.
It remains a ride on the razor's edge. We're all waiting for the bare numbers here - as long as they're not in, it's still a lottery ticket!
100% agreement, Tenbagger! You literally speak from my soul and hit the nail on the head. PYR is a painful but perfect example from the past.
It always starts with euphoria and a gigantic vision. But you're absolutely right: when the hype fades, at the end of the day all that counts on the stock market are the bare figures. A good story pays neither salaries nor dividends, but only hard, cold cash flow and scalability.
That's exactly why this stock is such a massive outlier for us. When we run Desert Control through our established AOK filter (our core quality formula: Sales Growth + Operating Margin or the Free Cash Flow filter), the warning light goes on blazing. The operating margin is deep red and the cash burn is high. According to our strict exclusion rules (no buy if the story is bigger than the numbers), this is actually an absolute no-go for the core portfolio.
Why are we still in it with a tiny position? Because we are not treating this share as a classic "investment", but as an asymmetric venture capital ticket. We know very well that if the PAYS contracts in the USA do not translate into tangible, hard sales in the next 12 to 18 months, Desert Control will go exactly the same way as the companies you mentioned. Then they will disappear into oblivion (and our commitment will go to zero).
But IF the leverage now takes hold in California and the numbers suddenly back up the story... then we want to be in the seat on that bet.
It remains a ride on the razor's edge. We're all waiting for the bare numbers here - as long as they're not in, it's still a lottery ticket!
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@Raketentoni but I think it's MEGA how much work you've done. Unfortunately, it's not rewarded enough here. That's why I would so much like the investment to be a hit. But when it comes to my ideas, I always notice that the skeptics are in the majority. Perhaps typically German.
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@Tenbagger2024 That's a big difference to Scandinavia, where they always say: we'll do it first and then see what happens.
In Germany, you always have to cover all eventualities.
It's like back then with hydrogen, I made so much money because I believed in it. In the end, hydrogen has remained a niche market except for Linde, but if it takes off like hydrogen around 2019 to 2022, then hallelujah.
When someone showed me Nvidia graphics cards 20 years ago, I didn't think it would become a company like that.
If everyone thought like that, mankind would still be hunting deer with stones today 😬😬😬😬
In Germany, you always have to cover all eventualities.
It's like back then with hydrogen, I made so much money because I believed in it. In the end, hydrogen has remained a niche market except for Linde, but if it takes off like hydrogen around 2019 to 2022, then hallelujah.
When someone showed me Nvidia graphics cards 20 years ago, I didn't think it would become a company like that.
If everyone thought like that, mankind would still be hunting deer with stones today 😬😬😬😬
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@Raketentoni For new stories like hydrogen, quantum, etc. I prefer to focus on companies where it is only a sub-sector. As you say, Linde, or Kawasaki, hydrogen is a sub-sector. Or at $FEIM and $GOOGL I prefer to play quantum technology.
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@Raketentoni do you know Claus Ruhe Madsen, who is the Minister of Economic Affairs in Schleswig Holstein. He comes from Denmark, and I think his Nordic mentality is great
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@Raketentoni What do you think of $HMS?
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@Tenbagger2024 I'll take a look later
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@Tenbagger2024 Yes, here - you called a skeptical rabbit? 😂
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@TradingHase Skeptical or scaredy-cat?
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@Tenbagger2024 $ALCRB had quite a good news flow at the end of last year and is becoming interesting again in my opinion.
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