5D·

A Small Restock

Is the market reaction overblown? Yes!

Should we see this as an opportunity? Yes!

Should we buy? Definitely 🫡

13.08

Cellebrite DI

Compró 90 a 8,98 €

808,20 €

Brian

@Aktienhauptmeister

5D·

Cellebrite Announces Leadership Change and Forecast Revision

Here's the hot stuff from the Cellebrite DI $CLBT (-1,4 %)
(NASDAQ: CLBT) Q2 2026 Earnings Release, fresh off the press:

🚀 Top-line Growth & ARR Dip

Cellebrite posted gains in revenue and profitability in the second quarter but fell slightly short of its own ARR target:

Revenue (Topline): Climbed by +16% to $131.1 million (within the guidance range of $130–133 million).

Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR): Rise to $507.8 million (+21% YoY). This put ARR just below the company’s own guidance range of $510–513 million.

Reason for the shortfall: Management cites longer sales cycles (longer sales cycles) as well as a slightly slower conversion rate for the new Inseyetsmigration.

🔮 Profitability beats estimates & margins are strong

Despite the slight slowdown in recurring revenue, operating leverage continues to improve margins:

Non-GAAP EPS: Stood at $0.11 per share , exceeding the analyst consensus ($0.07) by +$0.04.

Adjusted EBITDA: Reached $31.8 million (a solid margin of 24.2% vs. expected 22–23%).

GAAP Net Income: Amounted to $6.4 million (Non-GAAP net income: $29.7 million).

🤖 Leadership Change & Adjustment to Full-Year Forecast

High-Profile CEO Change:
Shiven Ramji (formerly President of Products & Technology) takes over as CEO from Thomas E. Hogan!

2026 Forecast Adjustment:
ARR adjustment: Annual target slightly lowered to $550 million to $560 million (previously $567–573 million, corresponding to approximately +14% to +16% growth).

Revenue Adjustment: Slightly adjusted to $555 million to $561 million (previously $565–571 million).

EBITDA increase: The full-year adjusted EBITDA target, however, was raised to $153 million to $159 million (previously $149–155 million)!

⚡ 💡 Jack’s take

A double-edged sword that could cause share price volatility in the short term: Operationally, Cellebrite is earning more money than Wall Street expected (an EPS beat of +4 cents) thanks to rock-solid EBITDA margins (24.2%). The downside lies in the ARR falling slightly short of expectations and the reduced annual revenue guidance due to longer deal cycles. However, the fact that Shiven Ramji—the former head of products—is stepping up to the top spot and that the EBITDA target for 2026 has been raised shows that the profitability machine is rock-solid!

12 Comentarios

Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin

The main thing is that the getquin stock price is still unchanged and doesn't reflect the price drop.🙄🤦🏼‍♂️ But whatever—I just bought another 45 shares at €8.85.😁😉

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John@Transporter

I also ordered 300 of them at 8.87

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Brian@Aktienhauptmeister

@Transporter Awesome 👍 Welcome aboard the sinking ship😂

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John@Transporter

@Aktienhauptmeister I'm actually already out again on Friday. For me, it was just a quick trade betting on a pullback.

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Solitair@Solitair

I took a few shots, too. But I set the SL.

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Brian@Aktienhauptmeister

@Solitair Welcome aboard the sinking ship😂

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Solitair@Solitair

@Aktienhauptmeister The lifeboat is already ready.

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Raketentoni@Raketentoni

Mr. Prompt says:

The news behind today’s stock plunge of over **32%** is an absolute bloodbath and, upon closer examination, turns out to be a toxic mix of factors:

* **Leadership Change:**
Shiven Ramji replaced Thomas E. Hogan as CEO today, effective immediately.

* **Forecast Shock:**
At the same time, Cellebrite lowered its annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth targets to **14% to 16%** and revised downward its revenue forecasts for the full year 2026. The company cited significantly longer sales cycles as the reason for this adjustment.

* **The Insider Trap:**
According to regulatory filings, outgoing CEO Hogan planned to sell approximately **339,000 shares** shortly before this extreme drop in the stock price. This is a massive red flag for corporate governance.

* **The System Check:**
The company did post **16%** revenue growth in the second quarter. Combined with the EBIT margin shown in the screenshot (**12.8%**), the core formula ($16.0 + 12.8 = 28.8$) would technically be met. But the Levy momentum has been completely destroyed following this crash, as the stock has broken through all trend lines on the downside.

**The Verdict:** **Stay away.**
Cellebrite is currently not a speculative play with potential for massive gains, but rather a falling knife with internal structural problems and slowing growth. Buying in now violates the ironclad rule of never buying unprofitable stocks on the way down.

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Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin

@Raketentoni I see it quite differently and in a more nuanced way—more on that later.😉

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Raketentoni@Raketentoni

@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin Hey, I still have an open spot in my portfolio, so I just asked him :)

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Brian@Aktienhauptmeister

@Raketentoni The Reaper’s gonna have to break out the scythe! Raketentoni, my partner in crime, I’ve got to correct you on a few points here!

❌ 1. Fact-check: Where the news is simply WRONG

1. “Ironclad rule: don’t buy unprofitable stories...”
Fact: Cellebrite is NOT unprofitable. The company is raking in big bucks!
In this very Q2 report, Cellebrite posted a GAAP net income of $6.4 million, non-GAAP EPS of $0.11 (consensus was $0.07), and adjusted EBITDA of $31.8 million (24.2% margin).

The company has even RAISED its full-year EBITDA forecast to $153–159 million. To label this an “unprofitable story” is a blatant falsehood.

2. “Slowing growth & 12.8% EBIT margin”
The AI script assumes an EBIT margin of 12.8% in the text but completely ignores the adjusted EBITDA margin of 24.2% and the high free cash flow generation.

3. CEO Hogan’s Insider Sale (339,000 shares)
Context: Outgoing CEO Thomas Hogan did indeed file a Form 144 for 339,484 shares.

Background: These shares were performance shares allocated to him on August 11 as compensation (so-called RSU vesting). It is standard practice for executives to sell allocations as part of their departure or to cover tax obligations. It looks bad on the surface, but it’s not some mysterious “insider trap.”

⚠️ 2. What’s JUSTIFIED about the criticism (The reason for the sell-off)

However, your post hits the nail on the head regarding the negative trigger points that Wall Street is punishing today:
ARR reduction: The fact that the ARR target was cut from up to $573 million to $550–560 million is unsettling SaaS investors.

Sudden CEO Change: The transition from Thomas Hogan to Shiven Ramji on the very same day the forecast was lowered is creating short-term uncertainty.

Technical Analysis / Momentum: The technical structure (“Levy Momentum”) has been disrupted for the time being following a 30% gap.

💡 Conclusion
“Mr. Prompt” views the situation purely from the perspective of a momentum trader (“trend lines broken, no speculative play with potential for massive gains”).
From this perspective, he’s right: For traders, the stock is off the table for now because the chart pattern has been destroyed.

For Brian, as a long-term investor, however:
The claim that this is an “unprofitable company” is simply false. Cellebrite is generating excellent profits, is raising its EBITDA forecast, and has a strong market position. The problem lies in extended sales cycles with government agencies—not in a broken business model.

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Raketentoni@Raketentoni

@Aktienhauptmeister

Hey Brian, my partner in crime! 🚀

You’ve really sharpened your scythe! I’m thrilled to see such passionate and substantive debates on the forum. But honestly, my friend: With your defense of **Cellebrite ($CLBT)**, you’ve totally walked right into Wall Street’s classic non-GAAP marketing trap! 😉

Let me explain to you and the other experts exactly why we’re currently sitting comfortably on the sidelines with this stock and keeping our hands off the order book.

Here’s the hard-hitting, fundamental breakdown:

---

### 1. The “Profitability” Lie: GAAP vs. Non-GAAP Romance 🎭

You accuse me of labeling Cellebrite as “unprofitable” and celebrate its *adjusted EBITDA* of $31.8 million (24.2% margin).

* **The catch:** Adjusted EBITDA is financial window dressing in its purest form! It simply eliminates real costs like the massive dilution caused by stock-based compensation.
* **The unvarnished GAAP reality:**
* Let’s look at the pure, honest operating profit (EBIT): LTM shows **$63.3 million in profit on $496.4 million in revenue**. That results in a GAAP EBIT margin of exactly **12.8%**! So my quote was factually accurate down to the cent.

* The historical trailing P/E ratio on a GAAP basis stands at a whopping **56.0x**!

* For the LTM, the undiluted net income per share on paper is a meager **$0.28**.

Anyone who pays a 56x P/E ratio for a 12.8% true operating margin and profit figures in cents is buying into a hefty growth valuation—not an “outstanding cash cow.”

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### 2. The ARR Cut: The Absolute Deadly Sin in the SaaS Sector ☠️

You’re downplaying the ARR reduction (from up to $573 million down to $550–560 million) as mere “uncertainty.” But for a SaaS company, annual recurring revenue (ARR) is the **sacred grail of valuation**!

* When a SaaS stock trades at an **EV/EBITDA of 43.8x** and a **P/S ratio of over 7x**, this multiple is based solely on the perfect predictability of ARR growth.

* If management cuts this guidance due to extended sales cycles with government agencies, the valuation foundation collapses. Four out of eight analysts have directly lowered their earnings forecasts in the last 90 days.

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### 3. CEO Exodus + 339,000 Shares Hit the Market 🚪

Whether it’s RSU vesting, tax planning, or a contractual allocation: When a CEO announces his resignation **on the exact same day** that growth targets are being scaled back, AND at the same time 339,484 shares change hands—that’s a red flag!

A CEO who is firmly convinced of the AI story (“Genesis”) would either hold onto his shares after leaving or wouldn’t sell them all at once right in the midst of a forecast downgrade. This creates massive mistrust among institutional investors.

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### 4. The risk/reward ratio just doesn’t add up 📊

Let’s look at the hard facts from InvestingPro:

```
Price (USD)
$21.29 ─── Analyst Consensus Target

$17.30 ─── InvestingPro Fair Value (+8.9% meager upside)

$15.90 ─── Current price after the drop

```

* **No Margin of Safety:** The calculated **fair value is $17.30**. That corresponds to a meager upside potential of just **+8.9%**!

* **Deferred Risks:** The Corellium acquisition is still pending CFIUS regulatory review, currency effects are squeezing margins, and over 90% dependence on government budgets makes the business extremely sluggish.

---

### 🏆 The Final Verdict

Dear Brian, you’re absolutely right: Cellebrite has a strong product in digital forensics and an excellent gross margin (83.9%). No one disputes that!

But as investors, we don’t pay for the past—we pay for the future risk-reward ratio. And here’s what that looks like right now:

1. A **P/E ratio of 56x** amid slowing ARR growth.

2. A ship without a captain in the midst of a **CEO transition**.
3. A **fair-value upside potential of less than 9%**.

Why should we catch a falling knife for a measly 9% fair-value opportunity when the risk of further multiple compression is huge?

Cellebrite remains a highly exciting candidate—but exactly where it belongs: **on the watchlist**, until the new CEO has delivered and the stock has fundamentally bottomed out! 😉

Best regards from Denmark

Yours, Raketentoni

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