And who says the shareholders are willing to sell their shares at the current price? 😉
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@fabfrey98 It certainly wouldn’t be a fair or transparent move on the part of the government. Still, I think a purchase would be much easier and less problematic than expropriation.
Of course, I don’t know what that would look like in practice, since I’ve never planned to—or been in a position to—buy out a publicly traded company. I imagine you wouldn’t just be able to place an order on Tradegate. 😅
I think the “easiest” way, if necessary, would be for project companies, KfW, or various federal agencies to gradually buy up shares below the reporting thresholds on the market over the coming weeks and months, while simultaneously approaching the major institutional owners of Vonovia. Later, an offer would be made to the shareholders, followed by a squeeze-out.
Of course, I don’t know what that would look like in practice, since I’ve never planned to—or been in a position to—buy out a publicly traded company. I imagine you wouldn’t just be able to place an order on Tradegate. 😅
I think the “easiest” way, if necessary, would be for project companies, KfW, or various federal agencies to gradually buy up shares below the reporting thresholds on the market over the coming weeks and months, while simultaneously approaching the major institutional owners of Vonovia. Later, an offer would be made to the shareholders, followed by a squeeze-out.
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@NichtRelevant Sure. Nevertheless, the shareholders must be willing to sell their shares at the offered price. In such a situation, that would drive the price up enormously. It won't amount to either a regular purchase or expropriation…
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@fabfrey98 I also believe—neither one nor the other.
The purchase won’t happen because the state of Berlin doesn’t have the funds, and the new state government also wants the expropriation to serve as a political statement. The primary goal isn’t lower rents or the creation of housing (in which case they would build new units), but rather the “fight against capitalism.” They want to get back at “the rich”—the first step toward socialization in all areas and a return to socialism. The federal government won’t support a purchase either, since this is, after all, a project of the political opposition. The purchase is therefore really more of a thought experiment than a realistic possibility.
In my opinion, the expropriation won’t happen either, but there will be an amateurish attempt! No normal bank will finance an expropriation. No court will approve an expropriation based on arbitrary asking prices.
Even if thousands of apartments in Berlin were actually expropriated: It would only be the expropriation of the apartments; the associated organization would remain Vonovia and wouldn’t be transferred along with them. I’d be very surprised if the State of Berlin could set up a functioning real estate management system—including technical services, billing, and building and tenant management—overnight (especially under legally extremely shaky conditions). That will never work—if it does, it will end in a catastrophe costing billions, the aftermath of which will take decades to resolve.
The purchase won’t happen because the state of Berlin doesn’t have the funds, and the new state government also wants the expropriation to serve as a political statement. The primary goal isn’t lower rents or the creation of housing (in which case they would build new units), but rather the “fight against capitalism.” They want to get back at “the rich”—the first step toward socialization in all areas and a return to socialism. The federal government won’t support a purchase either, since this is, after all, a project of the political opposition. The purchase is therefore really more of a thought experiment than a realistic possibility.
In my opinion, the expropriation won’t happen either, but there will be an amateurish attempt! No normal bank will finance an expropriation. No court will approve an expropriation based on arbitrary asking prices.
Even if thousands of apartments in Berlin were actually expropriated: It would only be the expropriation of the apartments; the associated organization would remain Vonovia and wouldn’t be transferred along with them. I’d be very surprised if the State of Berlin could set up a functioning real estate management system—including technical services, billing, and building and tenant management—overnight (especially under legally extremely shaky conditions). That will never work—if it does, it will end in a catastrophe costing billions, the aftermath of which will take decades to resolve.
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