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@Seebi Merz will want to govern with the SPD and the Greens. That will basically be exactly the same as now, only with a Blackrock chancellor instead of a Warburg chancellor
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@Seebi Söder has long since resigned and given up and is now content to be King of Bavaria. I would have really hoped for a lot from him as a candidate for chancellor, but I don't think he can or wants to influence federal politics now. It's just as much of a pipe dream as Seehofer.
@Seebi Söder will do anything if it gives him power and allows him to push his ego further.
Although he would probably rather go with the AFD than the Greens.
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@Seebi I believe Merz will try to work together with the SPD and BSW. This is also because he knows that this is not the first time that coalitions with the Greens have led to the dissolution of the Bundestag.

If that doesn't work out and he has to choose between the AfD and the Greens, he will - unlike Söder and any sane person - still prefer the Greens.
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@Seebi Without the SPD? So CDU and BSW might reach 40 but never 50%.

And yes, what does Söder want to do? If Merz has to decide whether to take Söder's wishes into account or put his own interests first, he won't think twice.