I was happy to do it. It's a good company, but it still has a few risks. Tomorrow I'll post the agents' analysis of all the energy companies we discussed.
Do you remember “A Trio with 4 Fists”? That’s exactly who we are—the “old” grandpa and the two young whippersnappers 😆
Do you remember “A Trio with 4 Fists”? That’s exactly who we are—the “old” grandpa and the two young whippersnappers 😆
•
88
•
@Raketentoni That's a very good comparison. What risks do you see?
•
11
•@Tenbagger-Capital What the analysts are saying:
Dependence on the data center/gas engine boom:
INNIO has secured several very large contracts for 2026—including 1.5 GW from VoltaGrid, 1.1 GW for a large data center campus, and most recently 450 MW from a U.S. energy company.
That’s impressive, but it also raises expectations massively. If AI/data center Capex cools off later or projects are postponed, growth could slow significantly.
Customer and Order Concentration:
Individual large orders have now reached an enormous scale. This creates visibility, but also concentration risk. A major customer that shifts its plans or a delayed campus project can quickly impact revenue and working capital.
Capacity and Execution Risk:
INNIO must scale up significantly. In Waukesha alone, more than $300 million is to be invested and over 500 jobs created. This is positive for growth but carries typical risks:
supply chains, skilled labor, startup costs, production quality, and margin pressure.
Dependence on the data center/gas engine boom:
INNIO has secured several very large contracts for 2026—including 1.5 GW from VoltaGrid, 1.1 GW for a large data center campus, and most recently 450 MW from a U.S. energy company.
That’s impressive, but it also raises expectations massively. If AI/data center Capex cools off later or projects are postponed, growth could slow significantly.
Customer and Order Concentration:
Individual large orders have now reached an enormous scale. This creates visibility, but also concentration risk. A major customer that shifts its plans or a delayed campus project can quickly impact revenue and working capital.
Capacity and Execution Risk:
INNIO must scale up significantly. In Waukesha alone, more than $300 million is to be invested and over 500 jobs created. This is positive for growth but carries typical risks:
supply chains, skilled labor, startup costs, production quality, and margin pressure.
••
@Raketentoni However, I view this expansion at Innio much more positively than at companies that are primarily financed by debt and won’t be profitable for several more years. Here, the forecasts indicate that margins can be increased while debt decreases. The FCF yield is rising. Recurring revenue also helps cushion some of the impact. Furthermore, I view the geographic positioning positively; in the U.S., the company is currently fully engaged in CAPEX. And in Europe, things should eventually get underway due to regulation and lengthy approval processes. This will remain a key issue over the next few years, and in my opinion, we’re only at the beginning.
•
11
•@Tenbagger-Capital There's no such thing as a risk-free business 😬 I'm always complaining from a position of privilege, you know that 🫡 But who would've thought Nike would end up like this 🤷
•
11
•@Raketentoni Well, in times of high inflation, I wouldn’t have invested a single euro in Nike. Investors’ money doesn’t grow on trees, either. So they think carefully about where it’s worth investing right now, and consumer goods aren’t exactly in high demand at the moment. But that, too, might change again as inflation falls. Nike hasn’t been able to increase its profits over the past two years. That might explain the current stock price. But if you look at how nicely Nike’s dividend yield is rising, I think the stock is worth considering for dividend investors alone. Combined with the fact that, according to forecasts, earnings growth is back in the double digits, Nike could once again become an exciting dividend growth stock. As our dear @Dividendenopi always says, “Patience.”
•
11
•
@Tenbagger-Capital I think, unfortunately, the problem runs a bit deeper. Right now, the sports and lifestyle segment in particular is lacking the kind of innovation it had 5–6 years ago. I see much better approaches here at $8022
•
11
•@Darkwingduck Nike is very strong in the athletic shoe market, and ON is making significant inroads there. But Hoka (Deckers Outdoor) is also on the rise. At Adidas, I see Adidas Originals as a wild card. They’ve cleverly recognized that they can draw on their history, and these styles are still—or once again—all the rage. Just look at the Samba. There are no development costs involved, so they can essentially sell a simple shoe at a high price.
•
11
•
@Raketentoni That's very well written, even though I think you're the only one of the three of you under 50!
•
11
•