A few months have now passed since I joined Mo-Bruk (a €250 million company - most people probably won't know this, so please take another look at the company presentation 🤓).
A lot has happened since then.
Since then, I've been actively trying to keep up with the news flow in a sub on Reddit. So feel free to drop by here too:
https://www.reddit.com/r/MoBruk/s/ipM2wINvoz
But now to the active story:
Ecological Bomben☣️
Since the beginning of the year, the Polish state has been pouring money into removing the many countless landfill sites. It is estimated that there are more than 800 of them lying dormant throughout Poland - an enormous number that can also be found in other Eastern European countries.
A short article takes a closer look at the topic:
🎥 https://youtu.be/8YNQQc-pKIE
The second wave of funds is currently being released to free selected locations from landfills:
📄 https://www.gov.pl/web/nfosigw/nabor-wnioskow-na-usuwanie-nielegalnie-nagromadzonych-odpadow
In the meantime, Mo-Bruk has already secured around PLN 30 million (~€7 million) in contracts for ecological bombs for 2025 and PLN 20 million (~€5 million) for 2026.
Not listed are two smaller landfills that Mo-Bruk only recently won contracts for:
- Szopienice - approx. PLN 2.5 million (~€0.6 million)
- 🔗 Link
- Dąbrowa Górnicza - approx. PLN 1.8 million (~€0.4 million)
- 🔗 Link
Szopienice has two different ones.
These are added on top.
Two tenders for ecological bombs, which are particularly large, are running in parallel - but neither is part of the state funding.
📍 Nowe Miszewo
The budget here was PLN 105 million (~€25 million).
Bids can no longer be submitted and it has already been possible to view the bids.
Mo-Bruk was able to submit the most favorable bid here in a consortium with ZUO and its subsidiary RAF Ekologia (PLN 94 million / ~€ 22 million).
The contract is still pending, but would have enormous significance for Mo-Bruk. The contract alone would correspond to around 30% of last year's record turnover.
The landfill is estimated to hold 9,000-18,000 tons of waste. The only question is how it will be divided up with ZUO - but either way, it is a contract with clout.
A bid evaluation could take place in the next few weeks.
📍 Wołomin
The contract budget here is PLN 200 million (~€50 million).
The volume is estimated at 25,000 tons of waste.
The tender ends on December 18, after which the bids will be opened.
And there are many more exciting landfill sites waiting to be removed. I am keeping a particularly close eye on the tenders in Głogów, Rogowiec and Szczekociny, which also stand out due to their enormous contract budgets.
The language barrier didn't always make it easy for me to obtain this information, which is why I often resort to three Polish Twitter users.
The government's measures will run until 2027 and are set to total PLN 500 million.
At the moment, Mo-Bruk seems to me like a bow that is being stretched further and further - the news flow is very good, legal disputes have been put to bed ... only the share price does not yet want to follow suit.
📈 My personal assessment (not a buy recommendation):
If Mo-Bruk wins the contract for Nowe Miszewo, I can well imagine that the share price could shoot up to €75-90 in the short term.
Analysts' estimates often only take into account the core business, which is growing through capacity expansion and acquisitions, in their forecasts for the future - but leave out the additional income from the "eco-bombs". A big mistake in my eyes.
I think that we could end up with sales of PLN 300-350 million this year.
My boring bet with "The Big Scrap" continues ...
I increased my holding to 260 shares after Nowe Miszewo opened its offer. 🛒
