Anyone betting that the USA will expand its influence on Greenland (in whatever form) should Energy Transition Minerals Ltd on their radar. When the Greenland issue came up last year, the share price shot up significantly within a short space of time, and now the pattern is repeating itself.
I have held the share in my portfolio since the beginning of 2025 and have not sold it despite a strong and persistent decline, as I was sure that the Greenland issue would come up again at some point.
Briefly about the company: Energy Transition Minerals is an Australian commodities explorer with a focus on rare earths. The largest project is Kvanefjeld in southern Greenland - one of the largest known deposits of rare earths in the world, alongside uranium and zinc.
However, the project is currently caught up in a political and legal tug-of-war:
- Greenland passed a law in 2021 that bans uranium mining, and because uranium is practically always associated with rare earths in the Kvanefjeld deposit, the granting of a mining license has been blocked.
- Energy Transition Minerals is now taking this to an arbitration tribunal in Copenhagen and also has proceedings pending before the courts in Greenland and Denmark to either enforce the license or obtain compensation. The decision on the jurisdiction of the tribunal was made in June 2025, and a further ruling is expected in the coming months.
What makes ETM interesting here is that the company is not just a follower, but has been the central project sponsor of the Kvanefjeld project for years, holds the exploration rights, the database and has already applied for the mining license. This is exactly what the entire dispute revolves around. Should the political environment change or the project be legally reopened, ETM would be the direct beneficiary - either through an actual license and project development or through possible compensation claims. None of this is guaranteed
the fantasy that the USA will use its influence to relax the existing regulations, partly for environmental reasons, is already giving the share wings.
This makes the story a combination of geopolitical fantasy and tangible legal dispute. If the uranium ban is actually overturned or the license is granted or a positive ruling is obtained, this would be a massive catalyst story for the stock. If not, it could be a total failure.
