1Semana·

Update on the HOT Value

A quick update on my absolute top performer in my portfolio:

HOCHTIEF ($HOT (+0,33 %) ).

Anyone who’s been with me from the start knows: My initial purchase price back then was a modest

99.30 euros. Over the course of 2026, the price skyrocketed to a record high of just under

550 euros. That means: In just about 3 years, the invested capital quintupled at its peak! Even though the price has fallen noticeably since then, we’re still looking at a hefty gain of around 250%—and that’s without even counting the dividends received so far.

P/E Ratio

The fundamental valuation has, of course, changed as a result of the extreme price rally. Currently (as of September 2026), Hochtief’s P/E ratio ranges from

approximately 32 to 36. When I first bought in, the stock was valued much more favorably. The currently higher P/E ratio reflects the market’s high expectations and also explains why the stock is now taking a breather and undergoing a healthy correction following its rapid surge.

Dividend

Let’s move on to my absolute favorite metric: the personal dividend yield (yield on cost). With the most recent dividend payout of

8.92 euros, I’m looking at a yield on my cost basis of a fantastic 8.9% to 10%.

My long-term strategy here: If I simply let the stock sit in my portfolio and assume an annual return of

>5% on my initial capital, I can refinance

50% of my total original investment over the next few years through dividends alone. A real cash flow machine.

Chart

As is well known in the stock market, where there’s light, there’s also shadow. Since the all-time high of 550 euros, we’ve seen a steep correction of a good 30%. In my portfolio, this translates to an almost five-figure paper loss

(-10,000 euros) in my portfolio. Visually, of course, this is painful at first glance and a significant figure.

Nevertheless, the overall trend remains intact. For the current correction phase, the next key support levels—where the price could stabilize—are:


359.63 / 365.40 EUR

349.60 EUR

339.60 / 341.60 EUR

318.00 / 322.17 EUR


Conclusion

So what is the right course of action in this situation—strategically, tactically, or speculatively? The answer is quite clear: It depends on your own investment strategy!

Those who think strategically and for the long term can sit back and relax. I’m playing with the market’s money here

attachment

(+250% paper profit) and let the dividends do the work to reduce my risk to nearly zero over the long term (refinancing).

Those taking a tactical or speculative approach should keep a close eye on the support zones mentioned above for potential rebounds or additional purchases. For me, Hochtief remains an excellent investment, and after the massive rally of recent years, I fully expect it to take a 30% breather.

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7 Comentarios

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I'm just sitting back and letting things play out, too. The news from Sunday or Monday about the AI slowdown just caused more and more uncertainty. But I'm relatively relaxed about HT.
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Why were you so eager to send me that link? Was it because I was right back then about expanding the correction, or is there another reason? :)
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250% profit on books 🤯. Do you even have room for all those books?
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@DonkeyInvestor psst 🤪 I can't read at all
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@Smudeo I figured as much. But don't give up on yourself. Learn to read and write—Alpha Telefon Münster
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