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The key takeaway: Analysts may have to completely recalculate their models after the quarter. SpaceX significantly exceeded expectations and projected a level of AI compute for 2027 that far exceeds previous Wall Street estimates.
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Average price target: $287 (+79%)
Median price target: $238 (+48%)
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Current analyst estimates:
• Raymond James: Strong Buy, $800 (unchanged) (+398%)
• JPMorgan: Overweight, $500 (up from $240) (+211%)
• Morgan Stanley: Overweight, $300 (unchanged) (+87%)
• Wells Fargo: Overweight, $274 (up from $214) (+71%)
• Pivotal Research: Buy, $260 (up from $230) (+62%)
• Bernstein: Outperform, $248 (unchanged) (+54%)
• Goldman Sachs: Buy, $245 (up from $230) (+52%)
• UBS: Buy, $230 (up from $210) (+43%)
• RBC: Outperform, $225 (unchanged) (+40%)
• TD Cowen: Buy, $224 from $200 (+39%)
• Mizuho: Outperform, $205 from $200 (+28%)
• Stifel: Buy, $190 (unchanged) (+18%)
• Susquehanna: Neutral, $176 (up from $173) (+10%)
• Piper Sandler: Neutral, $140 (unchanged) (-13%)
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What particularly impressed analysts:
• Q3 revenue of $14.6 billion (+161% YoY) vs. ~$12.9 billion consensus
• Adjusted EBITDA of $8.8 billion (+306%) vs. ~$6.6 billion expected
• Super Intelligence already generated $7.6 billion in revenue and $5.0 billion in EBITDA
• Q1 2027 revenue guidance of $33–37 billion is significantly above the previous consensus of ~$23 billion
• Management projects an ARR of $500 billion to $1 trillion by the end of 2027
• Compute capacity is expected to rise from approximately 2.5–3 GW by the end of 2026 to at least 13 GW by the end of 2027, with potential upside to about 20 GW
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The decisive shift: SpaceX is increasingly being viewed as more than just a rocket and Starlink company. AI Compute is rapidly emerging as a core business segment and, for the first time in Q3, surpassed the rest of the company in revenue.
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Why the stock is rising today:
• Some analyst estimates for 2027 and 2028 have nearly doubled
• According to management, compute demand is several times higher than available capacity
• Prices for short-term compute contracts continue to rise
• Starlink continues to grow, while a completely new AI revenue stream is emerging
• Additionally, a potential merger with Tesla fuels strategic speculation
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The biggest risks:
• Q4 Capex of $35–40 billion highlights just how capital-intensive the compute expansion will be
• Building more than 10 additional GW will require enormous amounts of debt and potentially equity financing
• The $500 billion–$1 trillion ARR forecast for the end of 2027 requires near-perfect execution
• A potential Tesla deal brings significant governance, valuation, and financing risks
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Conclusion: Q3 fundamentally changes SpaceX’s investment story. Starlink and Launch remain key pillars, but AI compute could become the biggest value driver in the future. Wall Street sees enormous potential; at the same time, the wide range of price targets—from $140 to $800—is a clear sign of how difficult it currently is to model the new scale of the business.