2Año·

After many valuable feedbacks I tried to take your tips and wishes to heart. I have invested many hours in this new article. Not only was I on site for you in Switzerland - more precisely in the Bernese Oberland at Jungfraubahn Holding AG, but I also tested their shareholder offering and wrote a detailed experience report. However, since we here in the community are mainly interested in the investment side as well, I will focus here mainly on the financial aspects and some carefully selected financial ratios. I hope you like the report and am open to your feedback. A special thanks goes to @Lorena for tips after my first attempt here at getquin - I hope it turned out a bit better this time - more detailed it definitely is ;)


In-kind dividend Jungfraubahn 2022:

Dividends in kind are a popular way for companies to offer something special to their shareholders. A shareholder gift is ideal to strengthen the emotional bond between the company and the shareholders. In addition, it is a good and inexpensive way to advertise on your own behalf to an audience that is often already positively disposed towards the company.


In 2022, Jungfraubahn Holding AG shareholders received a voucher for a discounted trip to the Top of Adventure: from Grindelwald to the First and back. In addition to beautiful alpine panoramas, the trip to the First offers many action-packed activities. In this article, I briefly introduce Jungfraubahn Holding AG. As an asset manager, I have of course also prepared some selected key financial figures of Jungfraubahn Holding AG as simply and clearly as possible.


Jungfraubahn Holding AG is a tourism company and a mountain railroad company in Switzerland. Jungfraubahn have a monopoly position in the region of Jungraujoch in the Bernese Oberland. Especially famous is the railroad connection to the Jungfraujoch as the "Top of Europe". The destination is often visited by tourists from all continents, for the typical Swiss experience with the Alps and idyllic mountain villages. Jungfraubahn Holding AG has a total of eleven subsidiaries. These operate excursion railroads and winter sports facilities. They also maintain a rail service from Interlaken to Lauterbrunnen and Grindelwald. Jungfraujoch - Top of Europe - is the most profitable segment of the Group. The Mountain Experience segment comprises destinations in the vicinity of the Jungfraujoch. The other business segments comprise a wide range of services that support the business of the main segments. Such as the activities around the First - Top of Adventure: With the Flyer, Glider, Mountain Cart and the Trottibike - yes I have also tested all these activities ;)


The shares of Jungfraubahn Holding AG:

The last two years were not easy for Jungfraubahn Holding AG. Due to the Corona pandemic, Jungfraubahn also had to close on Saturday evening, March 14, 2020. The share price was just above 176.- Swiss francs in January 2020. As an asset manager with a heart for value investing, I could not resist: On March 16, 2020, I received the shares of Jungfraubahn Holding AG for 97.30 Swiss francs. Already on November 9, 2020, I was able to sell them again for 124.80 Swiss francs, which corresponds to a return of 28.3%. Taking into account that the holding period was just 238 out of 365 days, this even corresponds to a return of 43.4 % per year.

Despite the high return, I kept some of the shares. Since then, I have received a dividend in kind every year in the form of a shareholder offer with a friendly invitation to the beautiful Bernese Oberland. This is also the only dividend I have received since my purchase in 2020, because Jungfraubahn Holding AG has refrained from paying dividends since Corona broke out. In my opinion, this is quite sustainable and sensible in this situation. In 2019, a dividend of 2.80 Swiss francs per share was still paid out, which corresponded to a rather low payout ratio of 30.8%.

Today, on June 5, 2022, the share price is 139.40 Swiss francs. On my purchase price of 97.30 Swiss francs, this is still a 43.3 % return. Considering the holding period of 2 years and 44 days, my return is 18.5 % per year for the remaining shares. If you compare the annual return, the buy & hold part of the shares has not paid off so far. The question is, in times of Corona and the war between Russia and Ukraine and inflation concerns, would you have gotten more than 18.5% return with other stocks? For the sake of simplicity, I have omitted the dividend in kind in the form of the shareholder offering from this calculation.


Key figures Jungfraubahn Holding AG:

In this section, I want to show you the investment side. I have collected some key figures, which in my opinion are suitable to get a first picture of Jungfraubahn Holding AG - but of course not for a final analysis. With my value and momentum strategy, I work daily with exactly such key figures, among others.


Jungfraubahn Holding AG ISIN: CH0017875789

Country: Switzerland


Value key figures

Price-to-book ratio:1.3 i.e. fairly valued

Price-earnings ratio: n/a because no profit was generated in 2021

Price-to-sales ratio: 6.7, i.e. highly valued

EV/EBITDA: 22, i.e. highly valued

Price/cash flow ratio: 19, i.e. highly valued

Return to shareholders: 0.35% i.e. low return


Why these value ratios of all things?

The fundamentals of value investing are reasonably clear: value investors look for undervalued companies to invest in. This often involves a quantitative and a qualitative analysis. But when it comes to actual implementation, there are a variety of approaches. I think it is dangerous to focus on one ratio, such as the price-earnings ratio or the price-book ratio, and make the investment decision dependent only on these quantitative factors of company valuation. Here, it seems to me that combining valuation ratios makes sense - such as with O'Shaugnessy's Value Composite. In my opinion, such long-term studies are worth their weight in gold and are also meaningful. He analyzed various value ratios over a period of 45 years, from January 1, 1964 to December 31, 2009, in order to find out which value ratios can be used to select companies in order to achieve the best returns. This resulted in the so-called Value Composite, which is a combination of these value metrics. He tested this combined valuation ranking for all rolling 10-year periods over the 45-year period between 1964 and 2009, and found that it outperformed companies that were undervalued on a single valuation metric 82% of the time - but not if you also looked at the other valuation metrics.


Profitability

Return on Assets (ROA): Annual loss of CHF 0.5 million

Cash flow / ROA (CFROA): operating cash flow CHF 40 million

Change in ROA: ROA improved from -0.0133 to -0.0005

Quality of earnings: CFROA is higher than ROA


Financing

Change in debt: gearing increased from 0.083 to 0.107

Change in working capital (liquidity): Liquidity ratio 3 increased from 0.38 to 0.45

Change in shares issued: number of shares decreased from 5.83 to 5.82 million


Efficiency

Change in gross margin: Gross margin decreased from 17% to 13

Change in asset turnover: Asset turnover decreased from 16% to 13


Piotroski F-Score: 5


What is the Piotroski F-Score all about?

The Piotroski F-Score provides an initial assessment of a company's profitability, financing and efficiency. It can be traced back to Joseph D. Piotroski, a professor of accounting. In 2000, he wrote a research paper entitled "Value Investing: The Use of Historical Financial Statement Information to Separate Winners from Losers."


His findings exceeded his most optimistic expectations:

Buying companies that scored the highest 8 or 9 on his nine-point scale, or F-Score, as he called it, resulted in an average excess return of 13.4% over the market over the 20-year period from 1976 to 1996.


Conclusion: Jungfraubahn Holding AG

Jungfraubahn Holding AG does not appear to be massively overvalued or undervalued at the moment. In terms of profitability and financing, Jungfraubahn Holding AG appears to be stable. However, efficiency leaves something to be desired. This is of course also due to the special effect of the Corona pandemic, which hit the tourism sector particularly hard.


Value Composite

Jungfraubahn Holding AG has a value composite of 54, which means that the company is fairly valued.


Piotroski F-Score

Jungfraubahn Holding AG has an F-Score of 5, which corresponds to the typical financial situation of a stable company.


Would I buy the Jungfraubahn Holding AG share today?

Yes, because I regularly visit the region in the Bernese Oberland with its picturesque mountain scenery. Then I'm happy to own a part of all these railroads and operations - but that has more of an emotional component for me.


No, because rationally I find the returns in the past okay, but not excessively high. The valuation at the moment seems fair or even rather high - depending on which key figures I give more weight to. There are more profitable companies that are cheaper to buy and have positive momentum.



Unfortunately, the possibilities of presentation are limited here, but that is also okay. You can find a clear presentation incl. tables with further tips & experiences on shareholder value in my blog post:


https://www.valueinvestments.ch/verm%C3%B6gensverwaltung-value-und-momentum-rebalancing-mai-2022


When managing assets for my clients, I look for a combination between low valuation and high momentum. My current portfolio in the asset management of Estoppey Value Investments can also be found in the blog under the latest rebalancing:


https://www.valueinvestments.ch/verm%C3%B6gensverwaltung-value-und-momentum-rebalancing-mai-2022


I hope my contribution to this year's shareholder offering of Jungfraubahn Holding AG has one or the other new info with it & am curious about your feedback.


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20 Comentarios

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@ccf and super contribution. Was certainly a lot of work in researching and writing the article. Keep it up 👍
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@MScottInvesting thank you very much for the nice compliment - yes those were some days - for that the trip to Grindelwald was super 😊
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@EValueinvest combine the pleasant with the useful so 😉
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Really very good and detailed article. @ccf You could still make the headlines bold for the eye but that's beside the point. Gladly more in the kind!
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@KapriolenSonne thanks for the positive feedback & the tip. I have somehow not yet managed 🙈 at least on the app - probably it's quite simple - or does that work with "bold" only via desktop?
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@EValueinvest You can do it with this via mobile: https://textspacer.com/ Options for formatting in the app itself will fortunately be available in the near future.
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@KapriolenSonne cool! 1000 thanks for advice 👍
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Great post and how nice is that you take feedback so to heart 😊 really mega and very interesting, I did not know the stock yet @ccf - I hope you enjoyed the time? My visit to the champagne cellars of Epernay of LVMH is also still pending 🙃
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@Lorena yes I have very 😊 & thank you again for all the tips! The trip was great - I also became aware of the stock only through a friend - fortunately just in time at the beginning of 2020, when it was also cheap to have because of the lockdown.
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@Lorena LVMH I do not have for this - would be happy about a post about it 😃
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@EValueinvest very nice 😻 I'd love to. I find shareholder clubs and offers for shareholders totally exciting anyway 😊
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@ccf beautifully written 👌 for me no investment. But nice analysis
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@TheAccountant89 yes, currently there are better options - monopoly position or not: tourism is a difficult industry & in this case also capital intensive - for me rather an emotional position, which has nothing to do with yield optimization 🙂
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I like dividends in kind but I have zero desire to go to Switzerland to get a suitcase with 3kg of chocolate😅.
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@Andreas1991 ok ok fair point ... but for the Schoggi-Koffer it also needs the necessary change of 98'300 CHF to buy the "big" Lindt & Sprüngli share ... after all it has an equivalent value of about 120.-, which corresponds to about 0.12% Schoggi yield 😋
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@EValueinvest and then subtract the travel costs and we are in the -chocolate return😅
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@Andreas1991 but there are certainly good dividends in kind from companies that are a little closer to you ;)
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@EValueinvest so far not really seen what Sixt I do not need and the clothes from Adler I do not like 😅
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@EValueinvest @ccf Super contribution. I also have the share "still" in my portfolio. Runs for some time sideways and yes, there are certainly better investments for yield optimization at the moment. But if you travel to the Bernese Oberland, you notice how the tourist flow is slowly coming back, so it would not surprise me if the share goes up again strongly with the next figures. At the moment, there seems to be some uncertainty as to how tourism will continue in the short term, but at least the share is stable and has not been sold off, which for me is another sign that it could go soon 🚀. I am curious.
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