China's AI company Moonshot unveiled its new flagship model "Kimi K3" —and in independent tests, it’s nearly on par with the best models from Anthropic and OpenAIin independent tests, which may have contributed to the sharp decline in AI stock prices.

What happened?

Moonshot AI, a Chinese AI company with a valuation of approximately $31.5 billion, has unveiled its new model, Kimi K3. By comparison, Anthropic and OpenAI are each projected to be valued at over $1 trillion —more than 30 times that amount.

Key figures:

Size: 2.8 trillion parameters (= the “adjustment screws” that store the model’s knowledge—roughly speaking: the more there are, the more powerful the model, but also the more expensive it is to run). This makes K3 the largest model ever to come out of China.

Open-Weight: Moonshot plans to make the model available for free download by July 27—companies could then run it on their own hardware without paying licensing fees to Moonshot. As of now, however, it’s only available through Moonshot’s paid interface.

Context: Capable of processing 1 million tokens at a time (tokens = text units; 1 million tokens correspond roughly to 750,000 words).

Unknown: The actual training costs. Anthropic also published evidence in February 2026 that Chinese labs had copied U.S. models via “distillation” (= a model learns by querying and imitating vast amounts of responses from another model). Whether and to what extent this plays a role in K3 remains unclear.

The comparison: How much do the models cost—and how smart are they?

Pricing is per 1 million tokens, broken down by input (what you send to the model) and output (what it responds with):

Kimi K3 (Moonshot): $3 input / $15 output – Intelligence Index: 57

Claude Fable 5 (Anthropic): $10 / $50 – Intelligence Index: 60 (1st place)

GPT-5.6 Sol (OpenAI): $5 / $30 – Intelligence Index: 59

Claude Opus 4.8 (Anthropic): $5 / $25 – Intelligence Index: 56

Grok 4.5 (xAI): $2 / $6 – the most affordable model among the top performers

DeepSeek V4 Pro (China): approx. $0.44 / $0.87 – low-cost segment, but index only 44

The Intelligence Index comes from Artificial Analysis, an independent testing provider that compares models across nine task areas (programming, logic, knowledge work) on a scale of up to 100.

Strengths – K3 trails the leader, Fable 5, by only 3 points, but costs only one-third as much per output token ($15 instead of $50) and half as much as GPT-5.6 Sol. In Artificial Analysis’s practical test, completing a task with K3 cost an average of $0.94—compared to $1.04 for GPT-5.6 Sol and $1.80 for Opus 4.8. When it comes to building web interfaces, K3 even took first place in blind tests with real developers.

Weakness – K3 isn’t quite as cheap as the headline suggests: It costs three to four times as much as its predecessor, is the most expensive model among its Chinese competitors, and, according to tests, “burns” up to 1.9 times as many tokens as GPT-5.6 Sol for the same task—so the cost advantage per token effectively disappears in practice. And the promised free model weights have not yet been released.

What could this mean for the market?

The AI stock boom hangs by a thread: U.S. labs like Anthropic, OpenAI, and xAI have committed to spending hundreds of billions of dollars—on chips, data centers, and electricity. Chip manufacturers, data center operators, energy providers, and construction companies have seen their stock valuations rise because this money is expected to flow to them. The plan is to refinance this through high prices for cutting-edge AI.

If a model now delivers nearly the same performance for a fraction of the price—and is soon expected to be available for free download—it could create the impression that the U.S. labs’ pricing power is crumbling (“commoditization of intelligence”: cutting-edge AI is becoming an interchangeable mass-market commodity). This wouldn’t immediately cost revenue, but it sows doubt about the business case behind the massive investments—and in overheated market phases, even a single doubt can trigger a chain reaction.

Opportunities – Cheaper AI could accelerate AI adoption overall: More adoption means greater demand for computing power for ongoing operations (inference)—and K3 is just as hardware-intensive in operation as U.S. models. Chip and infrastructure providers would benefit from this, regardless of which model is running.

The latest quarterly figures support this interpretation: On Tuesday, ASML raised its annual forecast for the second time (to €43–45 billion in revenue) and reported that its capacity is nearly fully booked through 2027. On Wednesday, TSMC increased its capital expenditure budget to a record-high $60–64 billion and stated that investments over the next three years would once again be significantly higher than those of the past three years—and that it is monitoring the construction progress of data centers to ensure its own chips do not end up in inventory. This can be interpreted as a sign that the demand side remains strong.

Risks – If price compression were to actually hit U.S. labs, training investments could be stretched out or cut back—which would eventually affect the recipients of this spending (chips, data centers, energy). Furthermore, those who train using distillation save precisely the billions in GPU costs that make the U.S. approach so expensive. The cost bases of the providers are therefore not directly comparable, but the price risk for U.S. labs still exists. A countervailing factor is that Chinese models are unlikely to be considered for security-critical U.S. applications (government agencies, robotics) due to potential backdoors.

Context

The bottom line, in my view, is that Kimi K3 is less a “DeepSeek moment 2.0” than a reality check for the valuation logic:

In 2025, the question was which chips China would use for training—now the question is whether cutting-edge intelligence permanently justifies premium prices.

The supply chain’s response (ASML, TSMC) has been clear so far: demand exists—the response at the model level is less certain.

Limitations

Initial benchmarks are partly based on manufacturer specifications = independent long-term tests are still pending.

Training costs and the potential distillation ratio for K3 cannot be verified.

Moonshot’s valuation ($31.5 billion) is from a private funding round; the trillion-dollar valuations of Anthropic and OpenAI are prospective—neither is directly comparable to market capitalizations.

Sources:

Artificial Analysis – Kimi K3 Benchmarks: https://x.com/ArtificialAnlys/status/2077832874183860404

OpenRouter – Kimi K3 Prices & Specs: https://openrouter.ai/moonshotai/kimi-k3

Anthropic – Official API Pricing Documentation: https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/about-claude/pricing

OpenRouter – Grok 4.5 Pricing: https://openrouter.ai/x-ai/grok-4.5

Price Comparison: Kimi K3 / Fable 5 / GPT-5.6 Sol: https://drawpie.com/blog/kimi-k3-vs-fable-5-vs-gpt-5-6-sol-price-benchmarks/

Decrypt – Cost per Task in Benchmark Comparison: https://decrypt.co/373716/china-kimi-k3-largest-open-source-ai-model-ever-beats-claude-fable-gpt-5-6-sol

The Decoder – K3 Classification & Price Level: https://the-decoder.com/kimis-open-model-k3-nears-gpt-5-6-sol-and-fable-5-while-signaling-the-end-of-super-cheap-chinese-ai/

ASML – Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript: https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-asml-q2-2026-beats-guidance-as-ai-demand-lifts-outlook-93CH-4792156

TSMC – Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript: https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-tsmc-lifts-2026-outlook-as-ai-demand-stays-hot-in-q2-2026-93CH-4794777

Anthropic – Report on Distillation Attacks (February 2026): https://anthropic.com/news/detecting-and-preventing-distillation-attacks

$NVDA (+1,14 %)
$2330
$ASML (-0,02 %)
$MSFT (+2,29 %)
$AMZN (+2,44 %)
$GOOGL (+2,69 %)

June was marked by a Fed shock and a rotation away from the winners of the previous months. On June 17, the Fed, under its new chair Kevin
Warsh , the Fed kept interest rates at 3.50–3.75%, the dot plot signaled a possible rate hike rather than a cut—after months of hopes for easing —a real blow to the markets. On top of that came a bombshell regarding defense stocks: The Ministry of Defense scrapped the multi-billion-euro F126 frigate program, and Rheinmetall $RHM (+1,21 %) subsequently lost over 16% —one of the stock’s worst trading days in decades. While speculative and cyclical stocks were sold off, investors fled to quality: defensive large-cap stocks and established software stocks held up significantly better.

In line with this more selective market environment, my portfolio slipped slightly into the red but held up more robustly than the DAX and Nasdaq:

📊 Monthly performance: -0.39%

📊 Portfolio value: ~€43,298

📊 Peak performance (Jan. 6, 2022): +39.16%

📊 YTD performance: ~+7.68%

Performance & Comparison 🚀

June was a month of contrasts: While the DAX and Nasdaq suffered from the Fed shock and the rotation out of risk assets, the S&P 500 and FTSE All-World held up significantly better thanks to their broader, more defensive composition. My portfolio was in the middle of the pack at -0.39%—more stable than the DAX and Nasdaq, but weaker than the two broad U.S. and global indices.

Performance Comparison (June 1–June 30, 2026, end of day):

My portfolio: -0.39%

FTSE All-World: +1.24%

S&P 500: +0.85%

DAX: -0.53%

NASDAQ 100: -0.96%

Purchases, Sales & Allocation 💶

In June, €300.00 was invested in the MSCI ACWI USD (Acc) $ACWI and €50.00 into the MSCI World Small Cap $WSML via the ongoing savings plans. The following were added via buy orders: Solaria Energia $SLR (€250.97), BE Semiconductors (€501.00), a Euro Overnight Rate Swap ETF (€101.00), and Tempus AI $TEM (€101.00).

On the selling side, I took profits on two positions in which I’ve been a shareholder for a good two years: In Datadog $DDOG (+3,55 %) , I closed out the entire position after the stock had performed strongly in recent months. With Snowflake $SNOW (+3,09 %) , I sold about a quarter of the position and am holding onto the rest. Both were purely profit-taking after a strong run; there has been no fundamental change in my assessment of the companies.

Top Movers in June 🟢

Despite the generally nervous sentiment, there were a few stocks that bucked the rotation trend and benefited from the flight to quality.

Tempus AI $TEM (-7,86 %) posted the strongest gain at +19.99% (+37.02 €)—AI diagnostics remain in demand, even as more speculative stocks were sold off. TSMC $2330 followed with a gain of +15.56% (+€72.12): Demand for chips related to AI expansion remains consistently high, regardless of the interest rate debate. Ferrari $RACE (-0,64 %) rose by +9.63% (+€78.63)—luxury goods proved resilient in the face of macroeconomic concerns. Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.B (+0,16 %) benefited significantly from the flight to defensive quality, rising +7.37% (+€142.01), while Crowdstrike $CRWD (+0,76 %) posted the largest euro gain in the portfolio with a +6.97% (+161.62 €) rise—cybersecurity remains structurally in demand. Cloudflare $NET (+0,64 %) rounded out the list of winners with a gain of +4.92% (+€105.74).

June’s Biggest Losers 🔴

The losers in June were almost exclusively the stocks that had performed the strongest in previous months or are particularly sensitive to interest rates.

IREN was hit the hardest $IREN (+19,37 %) , down -26.48% (-€316.39): Falling Bitcoin prices and ongoing disagreement among analysts regarding the company’s transition from a Bitcoin miner to an AI cloud provider weighed on the stock. Rheinmetall $RHM (+1,21 %) lost -23.36% (-€376.76) after the Ministry of Defense scrapped the F126 frigate program, which affected the entire defense sector. Alibaba $BABA (+6,08 %) fell by -21.25% (-€158.86)—Chinese tech remains under pressure due to general risk aversion toward Chinese stocks. American Lithium fell -21.21% (-€64.45), weighed down by persistently weak commodity prices and higher interest rate expectations, which particularly affect unprofitable growth stocks. BYD $1211 (+2,12 %) fell by -18.40% (-254.16 €) amid the ongoing price war in the Chinese electric vehicle market. Solaria $SLR (+2,19 %) rounded out the list of top losers with a -15.86% drop (-€63.35)—the hawkish Fed is weighing noticeably on interest-rate-sensitive solar and renewable energy stocks.

Conclusion 💡

June was a month of rotation: away from the more speculative winners of previous months, toward quality and established names. The Fed shock and the Rheinmetall slump showed how quickly sentiment can shift—a good reminder of why diversification across sectors and regions remains important.

❓ Question for the Community

That was my month in numbers—how did your portfolio fare through the Fed shock? Did you buy more Rheinmetall shares, or did you pull the plug?

👇 Let us know in the comments!

➡️ Follow @codeandcapital26 for transparent portfolio updates!

🔗 Link in bio: Wikifolio, Getquin & Parqet Portfolio

🗞️ Newsletter: codeandcapitalquant.beehiiv.com

📈 Wikifolio: https://www.wikifolio.com/de/de/w/wf0gquant6

Hello, community,

I hope you’ve all managed to “cool off” and get through the heat over the last few days/weeks 🥵

Today, I’d like to introduce you to another company from Japan.

Today’s focus is on Rorze Corp $6323

🦾 Rorze Corp: The Indispensable Robotic Hand of the Chip Boom

Rorze Corp isn’t a traditional semiconductor developer that designs complex circuits or builds machines that etch patterns onto silicon. It is the ultimate mechanical bottleneck in global chip production. While ASML $ASML (-0,02 %) builds the lithography giants, Rorze masters the delicate world of contamination-free transport. Rorze builds the high-precision handling robots that must move wafers in ultra-high vacuum and under extreme cleanroom conditions—a task where the slightest error can cost billions.

1. The Business Model: The “Toll Booth” in the Cleanroom 🎢

Rorze $6323 serves as an exclusive and mission-critical supplier to the world’s most valuable factories (TSMC $2330 , Intel $INTC (+4,65 %) , Samsung $005930 ) as well as for the leading (Applied Materials $AMAT (+1,42 %) , Lam Research $LRCX (-0,82 %) ).

The mechanism: When state-of-the-art semiconductors (3 nm and below) are produced, not a single speck of dust is allowed to touch the wafer. Rorze $6323 makes its money by developing and selling atmospheric and vacuum robotic systems that transfer the wafers back and forth between individual manufacturing steps in a contactless and sterile manner.

The ingenious part: Rorze $6323 has made itself indispensable. The major chip manufacturers physically cannot operate their multi-billion-dollar factories without integrating Rorze’s automation systems. Every new chip factory worldwide—whether in Arizona, Taiwan, or Dresden—means a large automatic order for Rorze.

Recurring Cash Flows: In addition to the pure sale of outrageously expensive robotic systems, there’s a high-margin service and spare parts business. Since the robots operate continuously under extreme conditions, maintenance is a reliable cash cow.

2. Key Figures (as of July 2026) 📊

Market capitalization: approx. 850 billion JPY (approx. 5.4 billion USD).

Stock price: Currently approx. 4,940 JPY (The stock is currently surging sharply after more than doubling from ~2,400 JPY since the beginning of the year).

P/E Ratio: approx. 42–45. Due to the recent surge in the order book and the market’s revaluation, the stock is no longer a bargain, but it does reflect its massive growth potential.

Return on Equity (ROE): Outstanding ~25–28%. For a capital-intensive mechanical engineering company, this level of efficiency is absolutely staggering.

Debt: Extremely solid balance sheet. High net cash reserves protect the operating business from interest rate risks.

3. Why is this stock exciting? 🚀

✅1. An explosive surge in orders wipes out the “profit warning”: In April 2026, Rorze $6323 reportedly posted a slight decline in earnings for the past fiscal year—triggered by one-time costs related to a U.S. lawsuit and high upfront investments in its subsidiary Nanoverse. The market, however, looked deeper and saw record order intake in the fourth quarter and a forecast of 46% profit growth for the coming year. The stock subsequently shot up to the daily limit.

✅2. The Advanced Packaging Lever: Due to the AI boom, memory chips (HBM) must be stacked in extremely complex configurations. Rorzes’ U.S. subsidiary Nanoverse is developing next-gen equipment specifically for this purpose. Rorze is evolving from a mere “wafer pusher” into a key player in physical AI infrastructure.

✅3. Geopolitical tailwind: The U.S. 🇺🇸, Europe 🇪🇺, and 🇯🇵 are subsidizing the construction of local semiconductor factories with hundreds of billions. Who equips these factories is irrelevant—Rorze’s robots are needed in nearly every one of them. They win, no matter which chip manufacturer comes out on top.

✅4. A unique competitive moat through cleanroom validation: Chip manufacturers are extremely risk-averse. Once a Rorze robot is certified and validated for a TSMC production line, it’s never replaced—out of fear of production downtime. The barriers to switching are astronomical.

✅5. Index knighthood: Rorze $6323 was recently included in the prestigious JPX Prime 150 Index . This continuously attracts fresh institutional ETF and fund money to the stock.

5. Risks ⚠️

❗️Extreme dependence on the semiconductor cycle: If the tech world were to slip into a deep recession and the tech giants were to freeze their new factory construction (Capex), Rorze—as a cyclical equipment supplier—would feel the impact with a time lag, but it would hit hard.

❗️The competition never sleeps: Players such as Daifuku $6383 (+0,29 %) or Brooks Automation are also making inroads into the field of factory automation. Rorze must absolutely maintain its technological lead in the vacuum sector.

❗️Investment Rating: With a P/E ratio above 40, the potential for an earnings surge over the next 12–24 months is already largely priced in. Setbacks in the volatile semiconductor market are possible at any time.

6. Personal Conclusion & Reaper Bonus 🧐

Rorze Corp $6323 is the ultimate “shovel stock” for the global semiconductor and AI frenzy. They don’t build chips; they make production possible in the first place. Following the explosion in order volume in the summer of 2026, the market has finally realized what a gem has been lying dormant here in the Japanese small/mid-cap sector. It’s on my watch list 👀

💀Jack’s Verdict:
"If ASML builds the priceless high-tech camera for a Hollywood blockbuster, Rorze supplies the indispensable tripod: Without its vacuum robots, the entire chip production process would be thrown off balance. The market has underestimated this unassuming monopolist for years, which is why the stock is now delivering its well-deserved payoff at 4,940 JPY. Don’t be put off by the seemingly high P/E ratio of 42—as soon as the latest record orders are fully reflected in the income statement and the projected profit growth of nearly 50 percent kicks in, the valuation will shrink rapidly. Those who missed the entry point should lie in wait for the next collective semiconductor hiccup, pick up shares on the pullback, and let the robots in the cleanroom work for them."

Reaper Rating: 🔥 BUY ON DIPS (Fundamentals are extremely strong, but the chart has become overheated after the stock doubled in price).

Reaper Score:
8/10 (Quality anchor 8–9. The fundamental monopoly position deserves a 9, but the current valuation pushes the score down slightly to a well-deserved 8)

I’m curious to hear your thoughts🙇‍♂️

@Get_Rich_Or_Die_Tryin @Tenbagger2024
@PikaPika0105
@Raketentoni
@Multibagger
@schlimmschlimm
@Stocktective
@Dividendenopi and, of course, everyone else ✌️

April was the month of the big recovery. After March was extremely affected by the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, optimism returned to the markets in April. The feared escalation failed to materialize, oil prices stabilized at a high level and investors took advantage of the lower prices to make a massive re-entry - especially in the tech sector, which catapulted the Nasdaq to new record highs.

My portfolio benefited from this positive sentiment, but lagged behind the massive rally of the benchmarks:

📊 Monthly performance: +6,59%

📊 Portfolio value: ~40.121 €

📊 Performance max (06.01.2022): +35,47%

📊 Performance YTD: ~+4,03%

Performance & comparison 🚀

The recovery in April was impressive, but almost felt "too fast". While the US markets were boosted by strong big tech figures, European stocks were stable but less dynamic. The ECB stuck to its cautious course, which dampened volatility somewhat.

Performance in comparison (01.04.-30.04.2026):

• My portfolio: +6.59 %

• NASDAQ 100: +16.50 %

• S&P 500: +9.50 %

• FTSE All-World: +8.74 %

• DAX: +6.88 %

Buying, selling & allocation 💶

No investments were made in April.

👉 After the high volatility in the previous month, I kept my feet still. The strategy continues to be "watch and hold".

Top movers in April 🟢

The list of winners in April is led by stocks that were still underperforming in March - a classic rebound.

The absolute frontrunner was $IREN (+19,37 %) with an increase of +31.02% (+€201.45), which benefited massively from the stabilization in the crypto-mining sector. This was closely followed by $6861 (+2,07 %) with +29.08% (+€156.56) - an impressive return to relative strength after the severe setback in March. Also $SIE (+0,1 %) was also able to shine with +22.78 % (+€153.07), as concerns about exploding energy costs in the industry have eased for the time being. American Lithium corrected the previous month's losses with a gain of +22.58 % (+€ 64.45), while $TEM (-7,86 %) with +21.08 % (+€ 16.21) and $2330 +16.32 % (€ +61.10) underpinned the strength in the semiconductor and AI segment.

Flop movers in April 🔴

Despite the generally positive sentiment, there were also stocks in April that didn't get off the ground or even fell.

The strongest correction $SNOW (+3,09 %) which continued the negative trend with -9.97% (-€69.87) - the market believes that there are probably opportunities for disruption through AI. Also $RHM (+1,21 %) also lost ground after the rally of recent months, shedding -6.14% (-€109.66) as profit-taking dominated the defense sector. $1211 (+2,12 %) fell again somewhat after the strong performance in March (-3.56%, -€58.01), and also $BRK.B (+0,16 %) was rather flat at -1.19% (-€37.58). Almost ironic: $RMS (+0,09 %) (+0.09 %) and the Xtrackers Overnight ETF (+0.15 %) ended up in the "flop" ranking, simply because they simply missed out on the double-digit rally of the overall market.

Conclusion 💡

April was a balm for the soul of every investor, even if my portfolio was unable to fully participate in the benchmark rally.

❓ Question for the community

This was my month in numbers, what was your best buy in April? Which stock surprised you the most?

👇 Write it in the comments!

➡️ Follow @derspekulant.1 for transparent portfolio updates!

🔗 Link in Bio: Getquin & Parqet Portfolio

🗞️ Newsletter: derspekulant.beehiiv.com

While Juan von lieben @Tenbagger2024 left Japan on his way to Norway, I stayed in Japan and would like to introduce you to another company from my watchlist in the semiconductor sector.

Today we are talking about Lasertec Corp $6920 (-1,27 %)

Lasertec Corp $6920 (-1,27 %) 👀The eye of the semiconductor revolution

Lasertec $6920 (-1,27 %) is no ordinary chip supplier. It is the only company in the world capable of testing the extremely complex masks for EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet) lithography. Without Lasertec $6920 (-1,27 %) there would be no iPhones, no high-performance AI servers and no progress in 2nm chips.

1. the business model: "The Monopoly Gatekeeper" 🔬

Lasertec $6920 (-1,27 %) operates in a technological stratosphere in which there is hardly any competition.

- The EUV lever: ASML $ASML (-0,02 %) builds the exposure machines. But before a mask (the "negative" of the chip) goes into the machine, it has to be checked for atomic defects. Lasertec $6920 (-1,27 %) has a market share of almost 100% for certain market share of almost 100 %💯

- Actinic Inspection: Lasertec uses the same EUV wavelength for inspection as the exposure machine itself. This "Actinic" technology is extremely difficult to copy and forms the ultimate technological moat.

- Service revenues: As the machines are highly complex, Lasertec generates massive revenues through maintenance and software updates over the entire life cycle (10-15 years).

Deep Dive: Lasertec - The physical frontier of semiconductor manufacturing

1. the technological "miracle": Actinic EUV Inspection

To understand why Lasertec $6920 (-1,27 %) has a monopoly, you have to look at EUV lithography lithography. At wavelengths of 13.5 nanometers (EUV), light behaves extremely difficult: it is absorbed by almost all materials, even air. This is why the entire process takes place in a vacuum.

- The problem: Conventional inspection devices use deep ultraviolet light (DUV). However, DUV does not "see" certain defects on an EUV mask because the mask behaves differently under EUV light (phase jumps, reflections).

- The Lasertec solution (ABICS series): Lasertec $6920 (-1,27 %) was the first and so far only company to develop a light source that uses EUV light for inspection (hence "Actinic" - under real working conditions). They shoot EUV photons at the mask and analyze the reflected image.

- The moat: Mastering this light source and the optics that direct EUV beams without significant losses is a feat of physics. Competitors rely on electron beam technology (e-beam), which is precise but 10 to 100 times slower. slower than the light process from Lasertec $6920 (-1,27 %)

2. the growth pillar: AI chips & sub-2nm era

- Next generation (GAA): The transition to new transistor structures (Gate-All-Around) requires even more precise masks. Lasertec has already completed the systems for 2nm production (planned from the end of 2025/2026).

- Semiconductor sovereignty: As the USA, Japan and Europe are building their own chip factories (fabs), each new location must order Lasertec machines. The company benefits from the global subsidy race.

2b. The "GAA cycle" (Gate-All-Around) - the next share price driver

We are currently in the transition from FinFET transistors to GAA transistors (for 2nm and below).

- Complexity explosion: With GAA structures, the chip designs are so delicate that the masks are even more susceptible to the smallest impurities.

- Higher inspection rate: It used to be enough to randomly inspect a mask. With 2nm AI chips, the mask must be after each exposure cycle (reticle cleaning) in order not to jeopardize the yield. This massively increases the number of Lasertec machines required per factory.

3 The "hidden" risks (bear-case deepening)

- Concentration risk: As only three companies (TSMC $2330 Samsung $005930 Intel $INTC (+4,65 %) ) operate real high-end EUV fabs, Lasertec is extremely dependent on the investment decisions of these three giants.

- Politics: Japan has tightened export restrictions on high-end chip equipment to China. Lasertec is losing part of the market as a result, but is compensating for this with the boom in the USA and Japan itself.

3. the hard facts (key figures 2025/26) 📊

- Market capitalization: approx. 2.8 - 3.1 trillion. JPY (approx. 19-21 billion USD).

- Profitability: An operating margin of over 35 % and a return on equity (ROE) of often over 45 %. These are figures that are normally only achieved by software companies.

- Cash position: Lasertec $6920 (-1,27 %) is virtually debt-free and finances all of its research from current cash flow.

Lasertec $6920 (-1,27 %) has experienced explosive profit growth in recent years, driven by the roll-out of High-NA EUV technology.

- Turnover (forecast 2026): approx. 240 - 250 billion JPY (A massive jump from approx. JPY 153 bn in 2023).

- Operating margin: This is constant at 35 % to 40 %. By way of comparison, a traditional mechanical engineering company such as DMG Mori is often at 8-10 %. Lasertec $6920 (-1,27 %) plays in a league of its own.

- Net profit: Expected for 2026 approx. JPY 66 - 70 billion.

- R&D ratio (R&D): Lasertec invests approx. 10-12% of the turnover directly into research. This is its protective shield against the competition.

2. the strength of the balance sheet

The company has an extremely "clean" and conservative financial position:

- Equity ratio: Is a phenomenal ~50 % to 60 %.

- Net cash position: Lasertec $6920 (-1,27 %) has no significant bank debt. On the contrary: they are sitting on high cash balances, which they are using to finance the pre-production of the extremely expensive EUV mask testing devices.

- Stocks (inventories): An important indicator at Lasertec! Inventories are often very high (currently around JPY 100+ billion). This is positive: These are machines already in progress, for which customers (TSMC $2330 /Intel $INTC (+4,65 %) ) have already been received.

3. profitability - the "magic numbers"

- ROE (return on equity): Mostly over 45 %. This means that Lasertec $6920 (-1,27 %) works extremely efficiently with the shareholders' money.

- ROIC (return on invested capital): Is often over 30 %. This shows that every yen coin invested in the development of new machines yields an extremely high return.

The "moat" in the balance sheet: order backlog

At Lasertec $6920 (-1,27 %) looks less at past sales and more at the order backlog. order backlog:

- This is currently at a record level (well over JPY 400 billion).

- Significance: Lasertec $6920 (-1,27 %) is effectively booked for the next 2 years is effectively booked out. Even if the global economy weakens slightly tomorrow, the chip giants will have to reduce their orders in order not to be left behind in the technological race.

4. why is the share exciting? (Bull case) 🚀

1. Irreplaceability: There is no "switching" to a competitor product. Anyone who builds state-of-the-art chips must buy from Lasertec.

2. AI growth: As AI chips become larger and more complex, the susceptibility of masks to errors increases - and with it the need for Lasertec test equipment.

3. Efficiency: The company has an extremely lean organization. A small workforce generates billions in turnover.

⚠️ RISKO (Bear-Case)

"The perfection trap

- Valuation risk (P/E ratio 50+): The market is pricing in a "perpetual monopoly". If growth falls from 30 % to 15 %, there is a risk of a massive contraction in the multiple - the share price could correct due to the valuation alone, even if profits continue to rise.

- Concentration risk: Over 70% of sales are attributable to just three customers (TSMC $2330 Intel $INTC (+4,65 %) , Samsung $005930 ) If Intel $INTC (+4,65 %) postpones its 2nm roadmap, Lasertec will immediately feel the impact on its books.

- Technological attack: US giant KLA Corp $KLAC (-0,84 %) is working flat out on competing e-beam technologies. As soon as the monopoly becomes a duopoly, margins shrink.

- Geopolitics & currency: Export restrictions to China and a possible appreciation of the yen (JPY) are unpredictable "black swans" for the Japanese export pearl.

🛡️ EARNINGS-PREP: LASERTEC $6920 (-1,27 %)

Timing: Thursday, 04/30/2026 (JST) - Q3 results.

This is the moment of truth. Lasertec $6920 (-1,27 %) raised its guidance in January and the share price has risen like a rocket since then (~€242 / JPY45,000). Now the company has to deliver to justify the valuation of P/E 51.

1. date & consensus (what the market expects)

- Date: April 30, 2026

- Revenue (consensus): ~ JPY46.07bn (+15.6% YoY)

- EPS (consensus): ~JPY175.76 (+69% YoY)

- FY 2026 Guidance (Revised): Revenue JPY 220 bn | Op. profit JPY 100 bn.

2. CORE METRICS

- Order backlog (order backlog): This is the most important figure. The backlog recently stood at ~297bn JPY. As sales are expected to decline as planned in FY26 (-12.5% YoY), the order intake show that the recovery for 2027 is already rolling.

- High-NA EUV Adoption: Watch for comments on Intel's and TSMC's high-NA plans. Lasertec is the sole bucket-wheel excavator here. Delays at chipmakers = poison for Lasertec.

- MATRICS X712 series: The new system was launched in March 2026. Initial comments on customer feedback are critical for momentum.

5th evaluation & conclusion (April 2026)

- P/E ratio (P/E ratio): Currently approx. 51x.

- History: This is moderate compared to previous years (where the P/E ratio was often 60x to 80x) moderate.

- Verdict: The balance sheet is "bulletproof". The risk at Lasertec is not bankruptcy or over-indebtedness, but merely the market's high expectations for future growth.

💀REAPER-BONUS :

🛡️ LASERTEC CORP (6920.T) - SUMMARY

Status: World monopolist for EUV mask inspection (sub-3nm chip production).

1. DNA & QUALITY (The foundation)

- Moat: 🟢 ELITE. Lasertec has a 100% monopoly on inspection systems for EUV masks. Without them, the assembly lines at TSMC, Intel and Samsung for high-end chips (AI chips, iPhone CPUs) stand still.

- Margins: Operating margins of almost 50% and an ROIC of over 40%. This is absolutely world class and shows the enormous pricing power.

- Balance sheet:
Net cash. The company has no debt and is sitting on massive cash reserves. Interest rate risks? Zero.

2. the valuation fallacy (the price)

- Current price:
~242 € (~45,000 JPY).

- P/E ratio (fwd): ~51x. The market is pricing in perfection. Historically, the P/E ratio is at the upper limit.

- Growth expectation: The share price implies sustained FCF growth of over 22% p.a. for the next 10 years. That is ambitious, even for a monopolist.

3 CATALYST-WATCH (The next spark)

- Date:
30.04.2026 (Q3 Earnings).

- Whisper: Expectations are extremely high (AI hype). An "in-line" (expectations fulfilled) could already lead to profit-taking here, as the share price has run massively in the run-up.

⚖️ REAPER RATE

RATING: WATCH

Lasertec $6920 (-1,27 %) is qualitatively a 10/10but in terms of rating a 3/10.

- Dust-off limit: 205 €. This is the fundamental bottom (fair value), where the risk/reward profile becomes attractive again.

Jack's conclusion: "A monopoly protects you from competition, but not from an inflated valuation. Buying at €242 is betting that there won't be a single delay in global chip production. I'll stay on the sidelines and wait for the setback."

In this sense, have a nice weekend

@Tenbagger2024
@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin

yours Aktienhauptmeister✌️

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$2330
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Since it will be very difficult for us small investors to get shares at the IPO price, we can look for other possibilities. One possibility would be $SMT (+0,49 %) . An investment company that has invested 15% of its equity capital in SpaceX, but also has other exciting investments.

So also in $2330 Bytedance, and many others.

https://www.scottishmortgage.com/en/germany/professional-investors/holdings/space-exploration-technologies

Let's see what this earnings season has to offer 😁🧐

what do you think? 📉📈

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