After having invested before in $1COV (+1,17 %) with the aim to be acquired by Adnoc/XRG and another investment in $ILTY Illimity Bank in Italy giving access to $IF (-2,87 %) Banca IFIS with a 10% discount.

I'm now thinking to invest in further banking consolidation. Since there seems to be a wave of banking consolidations coming up both cross boarder and within individual European countries.

Italy shows:

$UCG (-0,71 %) Unicredit stakebuilding in both $ALPHA (+0,89 %) Alphabank & $CBK (-2,34 %) Commerzbank and a failled attempt to acquire $BAMI (-0,96 %) Banco BPM. We saw $BMPS (+0,82 %) Monte dei Pachi acquire $MB (+0,35 %) Mediobanca. $BPE (-1,63 %) Bper Banca merge with $BPSO (-1,37 %) and rumored to be on the wishlist of Unicredit.

Denmark is consolidating but could be still more ongoing:

A recent merger of $SYDB (-2,07 %) Sydbank, Arbejdernes Landsbank & $VJBA Vestjysk Bank.

In Spain

We've seen a major but failed attempt to forget about the Spanish attempt of $BBVA (-0,2 %) Banco Bilbao of $SAB (-0,8 %) Banco Sabadell.

The Netherlands:

$ING (+0,83 %) ING taking a substantial stake in $VLK (-0,46 %) Van Lanschot Kempen.

$ABN (+1,23 %) Doing several take overs in Germany and buying the trading app Bux and rumored to be bought themselves.

When thinking this through I see a potential for take over but, if it won't happen there is still good dividends to be earned. Therefore there is less of a need of a quick turn around.

I'm now looking for a "smaller" bank that traded and a likely take over candidate.

Where would you invest?

$BPE (-1,63 %) - Bper Banca - Italy

$BAMI (-0,96 %) - Banca BPM - Italy

$ABN (+1,23 %) - ABN Amro Bank - Netherlands

$ALPHA (+0,89 %) - Alpha Bank - Greece

$JYSK (-1,35 %) - Jyske Bank - Denmark

$ALR (-0,7 %) - Ailor Bank - Poland

Any other alternatives, or opinions about this idea, I'm happy to read!

🇮🇹 Italy – Banks Under Pressure

Italian financials are taking a notable hit today, dragged lower by a mix of political, fiscal, and regulatory concerns. The sector is trading weaker despite resilient European equities overall, as investors reassess risks tied to Rome’s fiscal policies and broader European uncertainty.

Key Italian Banks

• $UCG (-0,71 %) — under pressure as investors fear new government-imposed contributions. Despite strong capital buffers, markets are discounting future profitability.

• $ISP (-0,34 %) — Italy’s largest retail bank facing headwinds from potential DTA adjustments. Dividend appeal remains, but short-term sentiment is cautious.

• $BPE (-1,63 %) — mid-cap lender sliding on contagion from larger peers; profitability outlook clouded by fiscal uncertainty.

• $MB (+0,35 %) — selling pressure tied to stalled M&A pathways; shareholders’ reluctance to back recent consolidation moves weighs heavily.

• $BMPS (+0,82 %) — the most fragile among major Italian banks, with political and fiscal risk adding to its already delicate restructuring phase.

What’s Driving the Decline?

Political Contagion from France/UK — Uncertainty in France (confidence vote risk) and UK bond market stress is spilling into Italian banking equities.

Government Fiscal Plans — Reports that Rome may request additional contributions from banks in the 2026 budget, potentially through adjustments in DTA rules, spook investors.

M&A & Structural Challenges — With Mediobanca’s recent shareholder pushback on mergers, consolidation looks messier, raising doubts about sector efficiency.

Macro Headwinds — Higher eurozone inflation (2.1% in August) and elevated bond yields keep funding costs high, compressing sentiment.

📉 Wider Sector Impact

The FTSE Italia All-Share Banks Index is down nearly -2.7% today, significantly underperforming the broader European market. While capital positions remain strong, investors are shifting away from cyclical financials toward defensives until fiscal clarity emerges.

💬 Insight:

Italian banks are resilient in fundamentals, but sentiment is fragile. Political headlines, fiscal tweaks, and bond market stress are weighing heavier than earnings strength. Unless Rome clarifies its tax stance soon, the sector may remain a relative underperformer compared to European peers.

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$MB (+0,35 %)

Best-ever year, in brief:

Mediobanca closed FY 2024/25 with strongest-ever performance and guaranteed 100% cash distribution on normal profit. The Board indicated DPS €1.15 for the year (final instalment €0.59 in November) and completed the second buyback tranche (€385m) with 20 million shares retired; a third €400m tranche has been approved.

CET1: 15.1%.

Dividend calendar (2025)

Half-yearly distribution on-going:

• ex-date : 24/11/2025,
• record : 25/11/2025,
• payment : 26/11/2025

What arrives in the bank account

With DPS €1.15, the net is ~€0.851 per share.

Illustrative nets:

• 100 shares → €85.10 net
• 500 shares → €425.50 net
• 1,000 shares → €851.00 net

Cancellations and buybacks: accretion per share

The cancellation of 20,000,000 shares has the effect of automatically raising each share's claim on profit and distribution even before any increase in earnings.

The Board also approved a new €400m buyback, which, if purchased and cancelled, would add incremental accretion; the exact percentage is a function of average purchase price and ultimate cancellations.

Takeaways for retail shareholders

• Cash visibility : A standard semi-annual frequency and all-cash pay allow for dividend income planning.

• Accretive on a built-in basis : Completed cancellations contribute to the per-share component of future earnings and dividends.

• Newsflow risk in advance of fundamentals : Short-term volatility of the price will likely be controlled more by M&A/governance news than by the already crystallized November cash flow.

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#MBMI

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#CapitalReturn

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#Italy