ASML's share price has historically kept pace with the growth in its earnings per share, until now...

Strong earnings per share in the first quarter and still expected to improve earnings per share in the second quarter.

By ignoring the noise, you'll see what opportunities are available.

$ASML (-1,43 %)

$ASML (-1,47 %)

#asml

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#LongoPrazo

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#getquin

A long-term investment in a company that is the undisputed leader in semiconductor lithography technology. 🌍💡

🔹 Virtual monopoly on EUV machines

🔹 Strong growth in demand with the transition to more advanced chips

🔹 Robust margins and consistent cash flow generation

Strategic role in the global semiconductor chain

Focus on long-term investmentsin high quality companies companies, a reasonable reasonable prices and with an ownership mentality ("ownership mentality"). 🧠

#ASML
$ASML (-1,43 %)
$ASML (-1,47 %)

#Investimento

#Semicondutores

#LongoPrazo

#Tecnologia

#ações

#getquin

$ASML (-1,43 %)
$ASML (-1,47 %)

• Sales: € 7.74 billion (estimated € 7.75 billion) ❌ ; increase of +46% compared to the previous year, decrease of -16% compared to the previous quarter
• Gross margin: 54.0% (estimated 52.5%) ✅
• Net bookings: € 3.94 bn (estimated € 4.82 bn) ❌ ; decrease by -44% QoQ, increase by +9% YoY
• Customs announcements have increased uncertainty.

Q2'25 guidance:

• Sales: € 7. 2 bn - € 7.7 bn (estimate € 7.66 bn) 🟡
• Gross margin: 50%-53% (estimated value: 52.3%) 🟡

Forecast for the 2025 financial year:

• Sales: € 30 billion - € 35 billion (estimated value: € 30.96 billion) ✅
• Gross margin: 51%-53% (estimated value: 52.1%) 🟡

Segment and product commentary:

• EUV sales: increase of +8% QoQ; ASP at € 230 million.
• DUV sales: decline of -39% QoQ
• EUV system deliveries: 14; unchanged QoQ
• Logic sales: decline of -24 % QoQ
• Memory sales: weak; customer TSMC -5% QoQ
• China sales: down -19% QoQ; now 27% of total sales vs. 49% YoY

Strategic and capital updates:

• Quarterly dividend increase: € 6.40/share (up +4.9% YoY)

Comment from the CEO and CFO:

• "AI continues to be the most important growth driver in the industry."
• "Discussions with customers support our forecast that 2025 and 2026 will be growth years."
• "Despite weaker bookings this quarter, our long-term targets for 2025 and 2030 remain unchanged."

Tariff & Macro Commentary:

• Tariffs could impact:

1. new system shipments to the U.S.

2. parts/tools for U.S. field ops

3. imports into U.S. manufacturing

4. exports from the U.S. to other countries

• Actively working to mitigate supply chain impacts from tariff uncertainty
• No change in FY25 revenue/gross margin guidance despite geopolitical risks

$TSM (+0,17 %)
$2330

• Revenue: $26.24B (Est. $25.83B) ; +39% YoY
• Net Income: $11.31B (Est. $11.17B) ; +57% YoY
• Gross Margin: 59.0% (Est. 58.5%) ; +53% YoY
• Oper. Margin: 49.0% (Est. 48.1%)
• FY25 CapEx: $38B - $42B (Est. $35.15B)
• FY24 CapEx: $29.76B (Est. ~$29.5B)

Q1'25 Guidance:

• Revenue: $25B - $25.8B (Est. $24.43B)
• Gross Margin: 57% - 59%
• Operating Margin: 46.5% - 48.5% (Est. 46.4%)
• Management expects a ~5.5% sequential revenue drop (smartphone seasonality) but sustained robust AI demand.

Long-Term Revenue CAGR: ~20% (2024-2028)

• AI-related revenue was mid-teens percent of total in 2024 and is expected to double in 2025, with a ~40% CAGR for AI accelerators through 2029.
• AI & HPC cited as main growth engines
• Smartphone & PC segments also gain from higher silicon content

Q4 Process & Segment Details:

• Wafer Shipments: 3.418M; UP +15.6% YoY
• ASP per wafer: ~$6,850 (FY basis); UP +19% YoY
• Advanced Technologies (7nm & below): 74% of total wafer revenue (vs. 69% in Q3)
• 3nm: 26% (vs. 20% in Q3)
• 5nm: 34% (vs. 32% in Q3)
• 7nm: 14% (vs. 17% in Q3)

Q4 revenue by product platform

• HPC (incl. AI): 53% (vs. 51% in Q3) - HPC up +69% YoY
• Smartphone: 35% (vs. 34% in Q3)
• IoT: 5%
• Automotive: 4%
• Consumer Electronics: 1%
• Others: 2%

Q4 Revenue by Geography

• North America: 75% (vs. 71% in Q3)
• China: 9%
• Asia Pacific (ex-China): 9%
• Japan: 4%
• EMEA: 3%

Capital Expenditure:

• FY24 CapEx: $29.76B (Est. ~$29.5B)

- ~70% allocated to advanced nodes (N3, N2)

- ~10-20% for specialty tech & non-wafer (e.g., advanced packaging, mask)

• Sees FY25 CapEx: $38B - $42B (Est. $35.15B)

- "Higher than 2024" to fund advanced nodes (N3, N2) & packaging expansions

- Overseas fabs contribute to increased spending

Advanced Packaging (CoWoS, SoIC):

• ~8% of revenue in 2024; expected to exceed 10% in 2025
• "Any rumors about CoWoS order cuts are simply not true. We continue to increase capacity."

Comment from the management:

Sales drivers and overall performance in the 4th quarter

• "We attribute our sales performance in the fourth quarter to strong demand for 3 nm and 5 nm process technologies."
• "Advanced technologies (7nm and below) accounted for 74% of total wafer sales compared to 69% in the third quarter."

Full year 2024 and future outlook

• "TSMC expects 2025 to be another strong growth year, with revenue growth of over 20% in US dollar terms."
• "Over the next five years (from 2024), we expect a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 20%, driven primarily by AI-related demand and the continued growth of silicon content in smartphones and PCs."

• "In 2024, AI-related revenue was a mid-double-digit percentage of TSMC's total revenue. It is expected to double by 2025 as the strong increase in AI demand continues."

• "We expect a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 40% for AI accelerator revenue over the next five years (2025-2029). This is an important driver for future growth."

AI demand, HPC and HBM

• "Memory will grow overall, but HBM (High-Bandwidth Memory) will grow very fast."

• "Demand for AI has more than tripled at TSMC in the last year and we expect it to more than double again in 2025."

• "We continue to see a robust demand profile in AI and can only hope that we can get enough teams and capacity together to support this growth."

Comment on rumors and expansion abroad

• "Rumors about capacity cuts at CoWoS are just rumors - we are continuing to expand our capacity. There are no plans to cut orders."

• "Factories abroad, including in the US and Japan, have an annual gross margin dilution effect of 2-3%, mainly due to smaller scale and higher supply chain costs. We expect this 2-3% margin effect to continue over the next five years."

• "Taiwan will always be the first to ramp up new nodes due to its proximity to our R&D labs (Hsinchu). Other factories abroad will follow depending on customer demand and government support."

• "Our factory in Arizona has started mass production of N4. The second factory is on schedule to produce N3 or N2 technology. Japan's second factory is planned for 2025 and Europe's first factory is also on schedule."

Non-AI markets and silicon content

• "Smartphones are still experiencing low single-digit growth, but the trend towards higher silicon content (AI features, advanced functions) will drive further growth and shorten replacement cycles."

• "PC is similar: overall unit growth is modest, but AI features in PCs are increasing, leading to advanced nodes and higher ASP."

Export controls and demand from China

• "We believe the new US export rules are manageable. We will apply for special licenses for customers as needed, especially in the automotive, industrial or other non-AI use cases."

• "China remains an important market, but currently only accounts for around 9-10% of sales. We continue to work within the regulatory framework."

Silicon photonics and packaging

• "We've had some technical success with silicon photonics, but we probably won't reach significant volumes for another year to a year and a half."

• "Advanced packaging accounted for over 8% of sales in 2024 and is expected to be over 10% in 2025. Our margins for advanced packaging are still slightly below the company average, but are improving."

• "The demand for CoWoS is extremely high for HPC and AI. Other applications (such as smartphones or PCs) may adopt CoWoS in the future, but for now the focus is on AI."

HBM, partnerships and supply chain

• "We are working with all memory manufacturers to provide advanced logic for HBM controllers. It could be another 1.5 years before significant product production from HBM-related logic makes a big revenue contribution."

• "We do not see TSMC as a bottleneck for AI demand. We are expanding capacity for advanced packaging (CoWoS) as quickly as possible and working with memory partners to align capacity."

Margins & pricing strategy

• "We operate in a capital-intensive business and therefore need a healthy gross margin to continue investing in advanced technologies. Pricing must reflect this."

• "We are seeing several cost headwinds including N3 ramps, N2 R&D, conversions from N5 to N3, inflationary pressures and higher costs overseas. We remain confident that we will achieve a gross margin of ~53% or more in the long term."

• "For wafers produced in the US, we are discussing with customers how they will bear the higher costs. Customers understand that the cost structure is different."

Further questions and answers for CEO/CFO

• "We don't comment on competitors' IDMs, we just say that they are important customers. This business is important to us."

• "AI includes CPUs, GPUs, ASICs and HBM logic for HPC/data centers. Edge AI could create 5-10% more chip area in smartphones/PCs, further driving the adoption of advanced nodes."

• "Currently, SoIC is mainly used in AI applications, but we expect more applications in the future."

• "We expect continued strong growth in the AI sector in 2026, although we have not yet made a specific forecast. Our focus is on ensuring sufficient capacity."

• "We are focused on narrowing the cost gap between factories in the US and Japan, but realistically the scale will remain smaller than Taiwan for years to come."

Final note from the CEO

• "2025 will be another strong year. We expect a 20% increase in sales in US dollars, driven by AI and our advanced technologies. We are ramping 3nm and preparing for N2 and beyond to maintain TSMC's technology leadership."

$ASML (-1,43 %) , $ASML (-1,47 %) , $NVDA (+0,4 %) , $AMD (+1,56 %) , $KLAC (-1,45 %) , $QCOM (-0,23 %) , $INTC (+0,37 %) , $MU (+2,2 %) ,

18.07.2024 +++ Netflix quarterly figures +++ ECB interest rate decision today +++ VW builds new e-car for China +++ Biden criticizes chip exports to China +++ Novartis raises profit forecast +++ J&J quarterly figures +++ (Update 14:55)

The ECB leaves the key interest rate at 4.25 percent as expected.

The ECB leaves the deposit rate at 3.75 percent as expected.

The ECB leaves the marginal lending rate at 4.5 percent as expected.

ECB: Most inflation indicators remained unchanged or fell slightly in June.

Europe's largest car manufacturer Volkswagen $VOW (-0,99 %) launches a new electric brand for China. Under the new sub-brand ID. Unyx sub-brand, the first car will be launched on the market this summer, said a spokesperson at the world premiere of the first model in Anhui, where it will be produced. Four more are to follow by 2026.

Johnson & Johnson $JNJ (+1,28 %) exceeds analysts' estimates of $2.72 in the second quarter with earnings per share of $2.82. Sales of $22.45 billion exceed expectations of $22.34 billion.

The shares of Nvidia $NVDA (+0,4 %) fell by 4% and the shares of ASML ADRs $ASML (-1,47 %) fell by almost 8% following a Bloomberg report that the Biden administration is considering taking action against companies that export their critical chip manufacturing equipment to China.

The Swiss pharmaceutical company Novartis $NOVN (+1,35 %) has once again raised its profit forecast thanks to good business performance. As the company announced on Thursday, sales in the second quarter amounted to 12.5 billion US dollars. This corresponds to an increase of 9 percent compared to the same period last year. At constant exchange rates, growth amounted to 11 percent. In operating terms, Novartis earned USD 4.0 billion (+43 percent) in the second quarter. The bottom line was a net profit of USD 3.2 billion, compared with USD 2.3 billion in the prior-year period. The increase was mainly due to higher net sales and lower impairments, the statement added

Thursday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

Quarterly figures / Company dates USA / Asia

07:30 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing quarterly figures

13:30 Abbott Laboratories quarterly figures

22:00 Netflix quarterly figures

No time specified: KeyCorp | Blackstone Quarterly figures

Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe

07:00 ABB Quarterly figures

07:00 Nokia quarterly figures

07:00 Novartis quarterly figures

07:00 Volvo Car Corp Quarterly figures

07:00 Volvo AB Quarterly figures

10:00 Südzucker AGM

Untimed: Bawag Group quarterly figures

Economic data

• 08:00 EU: Acea, New Car Registrations, June | Building Permits May
• 08:00 UK: Labor market data June unemployment rate 3 months (ILO) FORECAST: 4.4% previous: 4.4%
• 14:15 EU: ECB, outcome of the Governing Council meeting Deposit rate FORECAST: 3.75% previously: 3.75%
• 14:30 US: Initial jobless claims (week) FORECAST: 229,000 previously: 222,000
• 14:30 US: Philadelphia Fed Index July FORECAST: 2.9 previously: 1.3
• 14:45 EU: ECB, press conference after council meeting
• 16:00 US: Leading Indicators Index June FORECAST: -0.3% yoy previous: -0.5% yoy

ASML ($ASML (-1,47 %) ) recently launched its latest chip manufacturing system the High-NA Extreme Ultraviolet System, with a price tag of 380 million US dollars.

This investment is for chip manufacturersthat benefit from AI development development. Intel ($INTC (+0,37 %) ) has already placed orders.

ASML is the sole manufacturer of such sophisticated semiconductor equipment. The machine makes it possible to produce lines with a thickness of only 8 nanometers which increases the transistor density.