Over the last few weeks, I have been looking at shares from a new perspective and have started to take a closer look at balance sheets and fundamental data. 🤯

Unfortunately, I still don't use a screener and have therefore only looked at the stocks that I am familiar with in some form.

In view of the tradable shares on the global market, this is certainly a big mistake and I have some catching up to do. Nevertheless, I would like to share some of my findings with you.

I have created two lists for this purpose.

On the lists you will find stocks that in my opinion have excellent fundamental quality characteristics.

The first list contains the absolute quality companies, some of which have already proven themselves over many years, and the second list contains companies that could still become such or have not yet proven themselves long enough and could therefore be a good long-term investment. The lists are neither correct nor complete and, depending on your point of view, some stocks belong on one list or the other, or perhaps not on any list at all.

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Quality companies:

• Visa$V (-6,9 %)

Duopoly, very strong profit margin,

Risks: Google Pay/Apple Pay etc.

• Waste Management$WM (-4,02 %)

Long-term contracts, strong balance sheet, regular share buybacks

• Stryker$SYK (-5,39 %)

• Intuitive Surgical$ISRG (-8,5 %)

• Novo Nordisk$NOVO B (-6,66 %)

• Essilor Luxottica$EL (-4,31 %)

Strong moat, good growth,

Weaknesses: low return on equity

• Hershey$HSY (-1,95 %)

Solid cash flow, >50% return on equity,

Weaknesses: approx. 90 % of sales generated in the USA, trend towards healthier food

• ASML$ASML (-2,09 %)

• Alphabet$GOOGL (-2,74 %)

• Hermes$RMS (-4,6 %)

• Wal-Mart de Mexico$WALMEX* (-5,99 %)

The only retail food group I know of with a significant margin of

significant margin of >5%, stable growth and healthy balance sheet,

Growing middle class in Mexico and expansion in Central America.

Weaknesses: Mexican peso

• Lotus Bakeries$LOTB (-2,66 %)

Continuous sales and profit growth, very nice balance sheet, but a high stock valuation

high stock valuation (like the vast majority in this list)

• Ferrari$RACE (-3,06 %)

• Zoeties$ZTS (-4,18 %)

Market leader, high margin, solid cash flow, growing dividend,

• Idexx Laboratories$IDXX (-3,38 %)

Very nice growth stock with high customer loyalty, strong growth, >80%

return on equity, solid balance sheet,

• alliance$ALV (-8,43 %)

• Microsoft$MSFT (-2,36 %)

• Procter & Gamble$PG (-4,13 %)

• Pepsi$PEP (-1,81 %)

• Adobe$ADBE (-4,21 %)

• L'Oreal$OR (-1,22 %)

• Schneider Electric$SU (-8,15 %)

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Opportunities and future quality Company?

• Rio Tinto$RIO (-6,32 %)

• 3i$III (-7 %)

• Main Street Capital$MAIN (-6,56 %)

• Mutares$MUX (-8,93 %)

• Altria$MO (-2,25 %)

• Terna$TRN (-4,98 %)

• Pfizer$PFE (-4,59 %)

• Vinci$DG (-5,04 %)

• Mercadolibre$MELI (-4,71 %)

• Caterpillar$CAT (-4,89 %)

• BAE Systems$BA. (-9,05 %)

• Lululemon$LULU (+4,59 %)

• Generali$G (-6,61 %)

• Energiekontor$EKT (-6 %)

• Vici$VICI (-2,83 %)

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Thanks for reading and I look forward to additions, corrections and exchanges of opinion.

Are there any of the stocks mentioned that are of particular interest to you?

Has anyone delved particularly deeply into one or other stock?

Then have a nice weekend 🥳

Aloha @Epi

Suppose you were to create a file portfolio of 20 stocks, for example. Why on earth has no one ever come up with the idea of weighting the stocks in the portfolio according to market capitalization? Why does everyone build an equal weight for the sake of returns?

All these shares have one problem, you are not the only one who has this thought and that is why they are rarely good value😊, when I built up my position over the last 3 years, there was practically no opportunity to add them to my portfolio at a lower price, yet I continued to buy them and made my purchase price even more expensive.

That's one of the mistakes you can make as an investor, and I've made it too, only adding to positions that are in the red and neglecting the supposedly expensive positions that are doing well.

As already posted privately, at least this part is also public. Did some shopping today:

$CAT (-4,89 %)

$MSCI (-6,26 %)

$6501 (-6,67 %)

$NDAQ (-7,07 %)

$AVGO (-5,25 %)

$WM (-4,02 %)

$NOVO B (-6,66 %)

In the last few days, there are apparently signs that the free fall is flattening out. We often see an area that is being approached again and is holding. So for me it was now time to initiate a new wave of buying :)

but: will it really turn now? We don't know... and who knows if the man on the other side of the Atlantic won't come up with something new

Have you ever wondered where the Gates Foundation invests its money? In the fourth quarter of 2024, the foundation has impressive holdings in its portfolio.

The foundation manages assets of around 42.02 billion US dollars and is one of the largest private foundations in the world. The main stocks include Berkshire Hathaway , Canadian National Railway and Microsoft .

Here is an overview of some of the largest holdings:

- Microsoft: USD 11.99 billion (28.54%) $MSFT (-2,36 %)

- Berkshire Hathaway: USD 8.91 billion (21.20%) $BRK.A (-6,01 %)
$BRK.B (-6,3 %)

- Waste Management: USD 6.5 billion (15.48%) $WM (-4,02 %)

- Canadian National Railway: USD 5.57 billion (13.24%) $CNR (-0,97 %)

- Caterpillar: USD 2.67 billion (6.35%) $CAT (-4,89 %)

These investments show that the Gates Foundation invests in both traditional and future-oriented companies.

What do you think of the Gates Foundation's investment decisions? Do you think they are backing the right horses? 📈

$RSG (-4,52 %)
$WM (-4,02 %)

The waste management company reported adjusted earnings per share of USD 1.58 for the quarter, beating the consensus estimate of USD 1.41 by USD 0.17.

Sales amounted to USD 4.05 billion, just below analysts' forecasts of USD 4.08 billion, but 5.6% higher than in the previous year.

"We delivered another strong set of results in 2024, enabled by the effective execution of our strategy to meet the needs of our customers and grow the business profitably," said Jon Vander Ark, President and CEO of Republic Services.

For the full year 2024, Republic Services generated adjusted free cash flow of USD 2.18 billion, an increase of 10% compared to the previous year.

The company distributed a total of USD 1.18 billion to shareholders in the form of dividends and share buybacks in 2024.

Republic Services issued a forecast for 2025 that is largely in line with Wall Street expectations. The company expects adjusted earnings per share of between USD 6.82 and USD 6.90 for the full year 2025, compared to the consensus estimate of USD 6.79. Revenue is expected to be between USD 16.85 billion and USD 16.95 billion.

The solid quarterly results and optimistic outlook underscore Republic Services' ability to deliver profitable growth despite economic challenges.

The company's focus on pricing initiatives and productivity improvements appears to be paying off, as evidenced by the 110 basis point expansion of the adjusted EBITDA margin to 31% in the fourth quarter.

Today, a new long-runner found its way into my portfolio. Away from the hype stocks, I am looking for steady performers such as $SYK (-5,39 %)
$WMT (-3,92 %)
$WM (-4,02 %)
$MSI (-7,01 %)
$AFL (-8 %) ...

For me, 2024 was the most successful year so far, not only because I significantly increased my savings rate, but also because the portfolio performance took off for the first time.

In the past year, I also became much more aware of economic and political issues, which is probably due to my daily consumption of various podcasts on the way to work. The older you get, the more active and involved you feel in many areas.

I feel closer to the market than ever before... as soon as I skip a day, I have the feeling of being left behind. I'll have to think about whether this can still be counted as a feeling of a lack of routine or whether it's already addictive behavior. The user-friendliness of Getquin certainly also plays a role here. 😅

Well, now to the topic.

After another year of exceptional market returns and an impressive rally, the question is what can we expect from 2025?

In this article, I therefore summarize some key findings from recent publications by Goldman Sachs and BlackRock, for example.

I have bundled the content thematically, enriched it with additional sources and added my own comments. In my opinion, the reports provide a good basis for thinking about market opportunities and classifying current trends without going into too much detail. Ultimately, they also give me the feeling that I am well positioned with my own portfolio approach. It goes without saying that the personal assessments I include are not intended as investment advice.

Overview of the topics:

1 . Introduction: Optimism and market rally

2 . Causes of returns: Valuation and earnings growth

3 . Valuations and future returns

4 . Market concentration and global differences

5 . Megatrends and their impact

6 . Political classification and protectionist trends

7 . Growing fragmentation

8 . Investment estimates for 2025

9 . Personal approach

tl;dr

Hopefully the tl;dr is not too tl;dr - the short version today is also a bit extended in bullet points.

Strong market returns since October 2023:

• MSCI World index: +40% since October 2023 (approx. +60% since low 2022).
• S&P 500: One of the strongest rises since 1928, strongly influenced by optimistic expectations of falling inflation and interest rates

Driver of returns in 2024:

• Approx. 50% of returns in USA, due to valuation increases.
• USA: S&P 500 with high P/E ratio (28.5 vs. 10-year average 22.7).
• Japan: Returns driven almost exclusively by earnings.
• Emerging markets: Negative valuation trend, limited growth.

Regional differences and outlook:

• USA dominates the MSCI ACWI (65% weight) with strong concentration on a few tech giants ("Magnificent 7").
• Europe and China: Moderate earnings, less valuation growth.
• 2025: Earnings growth should be the main driver worldwide, e.g. S&P 500 (+11% forecast return) and Japan's TOPIX (+17% growth).

Megatrends and AI investments:

• AI-driven developments remain central (data centers, chips, infrastructure).
• Investments in AI could account for around 2% of US GDP by 2030 -> USD 700 bn.
• Productivity increases through AI promote cross-sector growth.

Geopolitical and macroeconomic influences:

• Increasing trade restrictions (protectionism), shift in trade routes (e.g. Suez Canal).
• Political uncertainties in the USA (e.g. possible deregulation, tax cuts under Trump).

Investment assessments:

• Overweight: US and Japanese equities, especially technology and healthcare sectors.
• Opportunities in emerging markets such as India and Saudi Arabia with moderate weighting.

Long-term changes:

• Megatrends such as digitalization, AI and ageing societies are permanently shaping the economy.
• Geopolitical tensions (USA vs. China) and fragmentation make forecasts difficult, but also offer opportunities.

____________________

• 1 . Introduction: Optimism and market recovery

Driven by optimism about inflation peaking and the prospect of a Fed pivot, the recovery began in October 2023. Since then, the MSCI World Index (see ex. $IWDA (-5,63 %) ) alone has gained around 40% (and around 60% since the low point triggered by rising interest rates in 2022) [1].

The S&P 500 (cf. ex. $CSDX ) also had one of the strongest rises since 1928 in 2024 (see Fig. 1).

Fig. 1: Rise in the S&P 500 in 2024 is one of the strongest since 1928

In the past, my investment strategy focused exclusively on individual shares. For the future, however, I have developed a more diversified strategy that includes both regular ETF investments and targeted individual share purchases.

My investment strategy 2025:

• Monthly ETF investments:

- 350 € in the FTSE ALL-WORLD $VWRL (-4,62 %)

- 25 € in the FTSE INDIA $FLXI (-2,8 %)

• Monthly individual share investments:

- 25 € Microsoft $MSFT (-2,36 %)

- 25 € Novo Nordisk $NOVO B (-6,66 %)

- 25 € Waste Management $WM (-4,02 %)

- 25 € McDonald's $MCD (-4,77 %)

- 25 € ASML Holding $ASML (-2,09 %)

-50 € Munich RE $MUV2 (-6,68 %)

In addition, I build up my monthly cash reserve of €1,500/month to ensure financial flexibility.

• Reserve/liquidity: