$TSM (-0,81 %) The second largest position in my portfolio after the broadly diversified ETFs is a real giant that many private investors hardly know - even though it is in almost every iPhone, Nvidia chip and Apple Mac: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Companyin short TSMC. I currently hold 35 ADRs, bought at €103.37, which now stand at €194.10 - an increase of around +87 % or 3.175,50 € in my portfolio. So it's time for a thorough portfolio check: What makes TSMC special? Should I buy more now? Or is it better to sell? Hold? Or perhaps slowly add to it with a savings plan?

The business model - Invisible, but indispensable

TSMC is not a traditional tech company with its own brand or products - but the pacemaker of the semiconductor world. pacemaker of the semiconductor world. As a pure contract manufacturer, TSMC produces chips for almost all the big names: Apple (approx. 25 % share of sales), Nvidia (11 %)AMD, Qualcomm, Broadcom and many more. This means that TSMC does not design any chips itself, but instead converts the customers' circuit diagrams into silicon - with a precision that hardly anyone else can match. This makes TSMC the world market leader in the foundry market with a market share of over 60%.

Particularly in the area of state-of-the-art production (3 nm, soon 2 nm), there is practically no competition. Samsung is getting closer technologically, but suffers from yield problems. Intel is also trying its hand as a foundry with "IDM 2.0", but is still miles away from TSMC. And Chinese suppliers such as SMIC are lagging generations behind - and are also being held back by US sanctions.

In short: If you want to be at the forefront - be it for iPhones, AI GPUs or autonomous cars - there is no way around TSMC.

Facts, figures and data - Impressive margins and growth

TSMC generated sales of around NT$ 2,894 billion in 2024, an increase of 34% after a slight decline in 2023. Net profit is over NT$ 1,173 billion. The gross margin remains at almost 59 % strong, the net margin is stable at around 40 % - which is an announcement in the industry.

In the DCF model with conservative assumptions (8 % growth, 10 % WACC, 3 % terminal growth), I arrive at an intrinsic value of around 236 billion US dollars - which is significantly below the current market capitalization of ~US$500 billion. But: The model is deliberately cautious. If you calculate more optimistically (12% growth, 8% WACC), you will quickly arrive in the region of $450-600 billion - i.e. where the market currently places TSMC.

Opportunities - Why TSMC remains indispensable

• AI boom: Nvidia & Co. need masses of chips. They come from a single source: TSMC.
• Apple: Every A processor comes from TSMC. Even the M chips in Macs.
• Technological advantageTSMC is the only manufacturer that mass produces 3 nm. 2 nm is scheduled for 2025/26.
• Global expansion: New plants in the USA, Japan and soon Germany - politically supported and strategically sensible.
• Strong balance sheetAlmost debt-free, with stable free cash flows and a reliable dividend.

Risks - The sword of Damocles is China

The biggest risk is obvious: Taiwan. A military conflict with China would have a massive impact on TSMC - in the worst case scenario, the factories would be shut down or destroyed to prevent them falling into Chinese hands. This is a low-probability, high-impact risk - but it is real.

On top of that:

• US export controlsthat force TSMC to impose restrictions (Huawei ban, delivery bans to China).
• Concentration on Apple and Nvidia - together account for over 35% of sales. Should one of the two jump ship or stumble, this would have an impact.
• CompetitionIntel and Samsung are catching up, albeit slowly. TSMC must maintain its lead - technologically and logistically.

My assessment - buy, hold, sell?

TSMC is a technical monopoly for the time being. No one can produce chips of this quality and quantity. The demand for AI, high-performance computing, smartphones, IoT and automotive chips will continue to grow in the coming years - and TSMC is the biggest beneficiary.

At the same time, the political risks are real. Anyone buying TSMC must be aware of this: In the worst-case scenario - should there be a war over Taiwan - the share price could plummet massively. That is the price for the growth potential.

Personally, I think so.

• I am up 87% and have TSMC as a strategic core position in my portfolio.
• I wouldn't buy more at the current level - the valuation is too sporty for me, especially in relation to the political risk.
• A savings plan? Conceivable. Especially when the share price starts to deflate again.

For me, TSMC remains a "buy the dip" candidate. Should the share price fall significantly again - e.g. due to general market panic or political uncertainty - I would consider buying more. Until then: keep your feet still, collect the dividend and watch the growth.

Not investment advice - just my personal opinion.

Liberation Day on April 2, 2025 was just two months ago, but it feels more like two years ago on the stock markets.

The markets have become accustomed to Trump's mood swings and the old adage is proving true once again: political stock markets have short legs

Monthly view:

My portfolio saw a massive rise in May and May 2025 is the second best month in the last 5 years with +8.1%. Only November 2021 was marginally better at +8.5%.

This corresponds to price gains of ~20.000€.

The MSCI World (benchmark) was +3.6% and the S&P 500 +6.1%.

Winners & losers:

A look at the winners and losers shows a completely different picture in May than in the last 2 months - Suddenly everything is green again.

On the winners is mainly made up of the stocks that have fallen in recent months: US tech

In 1st place is NVIDIA $NVDA (+0,15 %) with price gains of almost €5,000. This is followed in 2nd & 3rd place by Microsoft $MSFT (-0,39 %)
and Meta $META (-1,23 %) with price gains of just under €2,000 each. 4th place goes to Ethereum
$ETH (+1,43 %) with ~€1,400 price gains, finally making up some ground on Bitcoin $BTC (+0,5 %) . In 5th place is another tech stock with TSMC $TSM (-0,81 %) and +1,300€.

On the losers' side looked very relaxed in May. The biggest loser was Apple $AAPL (+1,19 %) with just under €300 in share price losses. In 4th place was Allianz $ALV (-1,77 %) with -120€, although this also corresponds to the dividend discount after the payout. So it's really significant when the dividend discount leads to a share ending up on the flop list of the month.

The performance-neutral movements in April were ~€500 - these are still lower at the moment due to the house building issue.

current year:

In the YTD my portfolio was still at -12,4% clearly in the red. Thanks to the strong May, it is now only -4.3%, although the MSCI World is still slightly better off at -3.3%.

In total, my portfolio currently stands at ~273.000€. This corresponds to an absolute decline of ~€12,000 in the current year 2025. -14.000€ of this comes from exchange rate losses, slightly offset by ~1.700€ from dividends / interest and ~3.200€ from additional investments.

Dividend:

• Dividends in May were +22% above the previous year at ~465€
• German equities were in the lead with Allianz $ALV (-1,77 %) and Deutsche Bank $DBK (-0,44 %) - Both with ~€120 (gross) dividend
• In the current year, dividends after 5 months are +25% over the first 5 months of 2025 at ~1.620€
• 
  I have reached another milestone with regard to the rolling 12-month view. For the second time, I have received over €3,000 in gross dividends for the last 12 months. This figure has now risen to over €3,100
• However, the fall in the US dollar is still having an impact on my dividend forecast - unfortunately, the growth rates in the second half of the year do not look very good compared to the previous year

Buying & selling:

• I bought in May for 885€
• 520€ shares
• 265€ ETFs
• 100€ crypto
• Sales There were none in May

Adjustment of savings plans for the second half of the year:

After a long time, there will be adjustments to my savings plans for the second half of the year. With Starbucks $SBUX (+0,82 %) Apple $AAPL (+1,19 %) and Hershey $HSY (+1,72 %)
three shares will be removed from the savings plans. Starbucks and Apple will remain in the portfolio, Hershey is still open.

I will be adding Allianz $ALV (-1,77 %)
which I have held in my portfolio for many years and bought individually in 2020.

In addition, the London Stock Exchange $LSEG (-0,39 %) and Iberdrola $IBE (-0,62 %)
will be added to the portfolio.

I go into these adjustments in detail in the YouTube video (see next section).

YouTube:

My portfolio update for May can be seen there again in the usual form.

Unfortunately, things are a little quieter there and here on getquin at the moment.

There are some private and professional issues at the moment that are taking up a lot of time.

Video: https://youtu.be/Pe59Z287-Zs

Goal 2025

I haven't really set myself any goals for 2025 due to the topic of building a house. A fixed savings rate is difficult to implement due to the issue (unforeseen costs and the like).

A dividend target will also be very difficult due to the high volatility of the US dollar.

That's why I'm focusing on other topics this year, especially building a house and possibly one or two successes in terms of YouTube.

How did May look in your portfolio?

#dividends

#dividende

#rückblick

#depotupdate

#aktie

#stocks

#etfs

#crypto

#personalstrategy

We (around 40 people from SW development) trundled into a bar after work last week and wanted to round off the evening in a relaxed atmosphere. Instead of 2 beers, there were of course significantly more and the topic of our operational business was over relatively quickly, in the end of course (once again) we only talked about AI and the discussion hype/sustainability and how each individual can benefit from it (many do without any company insurance, prefer to receive an annual bonus and invest it in the stock market).

In the end (8 beers later) there was relative agreement that it is

a) it is a megatrend with a tailwind (comparable to the internet or smartphones back then)

b) AI will change every industry (and in my opinion very quickly)

c) targeted investments will lead to significant increases in value in 5-10 years.

What has left us all with questions is the impact on the labor market. Entire industries will look completely different in the future; instead of people, there will be robotics and perhaps a handful of people monitoring everything. Where will that lead? Tax systems need to be rethought (loss of jobs = loss of wage tax and social security contributions), the education system needs to be revolutionized and so on. Where are we heading? AI user tax? Digital value-added taxation?

Very exciting with our political leaders and little hope :D

Of course, this is all minimally frightening, but it also offers us all incredible opportunities.

To return to the core issue: I think we all have an opportunity here to build massive wealth. My portfolio is extremely tech-heavy, so I'm still betting on the big players ($NVDA (+0,15 %) , $TSM (-0,81 %) , $ASML (+1,05 %) - entire value chain for chip development), $GOOGL (-0,27 %) , $META (-1,23 %) . $AMZN (-0,55 %) and also a few riskier ones like $PLTR (-0,53 %) , $SMCP, $NOW (-3,46 %) etc.).

Quantum computing would of course be the next big highlight, but that's another story.

What do you think about it? How will AI shape our generations, what social impact will it have and where are you investing?

LG Max

USA plans bill against chip smuggling to ChinaA new bill in the USA has set itself the task of more strictly monitoring the export of AI chips, in particular from NVIDIA $NVDA (+0,15 %)to China more strictly. Initiated by US Congressman Bill Foster, the bill provides for the implementation of tracking tools to follow the whereabouts of the chips after they have been sold. This measure is intended to ensure that exported products comply with US export controls. Foster emphasizes that this is not a future problem, but a current threat to US national security. The bill has broad support in both political camps and could further tighten the already strict export controls. This is a clear step towards more security and control in the chip industry.

Trump wants 50% chip production in the USAIn a further ambitious step, the US government under President Donald Trump has formulated the goal that 50% of modern high-tech chips should be produced in the USA in future. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick emphasizes that this goal should give the country the necessary "firepower" for the development of artificial intelligence. Given that the majority of chips are currently manufactured in Asia, there are concerns that China could potentially cut off supplies. Trump's predecessor, Joe Biden, had already announced subsidies of around 39 billion dollars to promote domestic production. However, Trump is relying on tariffs and is planning less stringent export barriers to facilitate access to US chips for trusted data centers. On the stock market, the shares of TSMC $TSM (-0,81 %)NVIDIA and Intel $INTC (+1,73 %) reacted positively to these developments, which is a further sign of the momentum in the industry.

Sources:

https://www.finanzen.net/nachricht/aktien/strengere-kontrollen-nvidia-aktie-im-visier-neuer-us-gesetzentwurf-gegen-chip-schmuggel-nach-china-14457039

https://www.finanzen.net/nachricht/aktien/34-feuerkraft-34-fuer-ki-aktien-von-tsmc-nvidia-und-intel-mit-gewinnen-trump-will-mit-neuer-chip-strategie-abhaengigkeit-von-asien-reduzieren-14465568

🖥️ Field report

Inspired by the many great members on getquin and their super contributions, I wanted to share my experiences with you with this small series of reports and give something back to the community.

I was able to increase my income enormously due to a job change, but this also means that I don't expect such an increase in my income this year.

I was able to reduce my expenses significantly compared to the previous year. Unfortunately, as I had built up credit card debt, paying it off increased my financial burden.

Fortunately, I was able to get out of this situation within a few months by being disciplined and learning how to organize my finances.

The 50-30-20 rule was a particular help to me. I also opened a smart account with C24Bank, which allows me to create sub-accounts. The sub-accounts enable me to organize different pots of money for different purposes and use them with different cards. I have set automatic saving rules via the app, which has worked very well so far.

I also use the app to track and analyze my spending and income.

My portfolio was doing very well at the beginning of the year, but then unfortunately the correction started and from February to March my portfolio was only in the red. I didn't let this put me off and kept my savings plans running continuously.

There was one change to my ETF core from February onwards: I no longer have the STOXX Europe 600 in my savings plan, but now have the MSCI Momentum and the MSCI EM Value. With Momentum, I want to focus primarily on long-term trends and not actively on certain ETF themes that may only experience a brief hype.

With EM Value, I wanted to weight EM somewhat higher, taking the value factor into account.

I have also made some additional purchases to further advance my dividend growth strategy. Assuming that the stocks I had chosen could not fall any further, I bought them and was then particularly successful with $UNH (+0,23 %) and $TSM (-0,81 %) were proved wrong.

To my delight $RSG (-0,02 %) , $V (-0,01 %) and $DE (+2,49 %) held up very well despite the correction.

Before I got serious about finance and building wealth, I traded a lot in collectibles and currently have a mid to high 4 figure amount of collectibles in my inventory.

In the long term I would like to part with my collection as I have changed my mind and believe that investing so much money in old video game consoles, rated video games and Pokémon cards was not a good financial decision.

👨‍💻 Finances

🟢 Income YoY: +13.40%

🔴 Expenses YoY: -29.04%

💰 Monthly savings rate: €800

🏦 Portfolio

📊 Allocation:

📄 73% ETF

📄 24% equities

🟠 03% Bitcoin

🏎️ Performance:

📈 01/2025: +5,90 %

📉 02/2025: -1,85 %

📉 03/2025: -7,45 %

📉 YTD 2025: -3.65 %

📉 TTWROR 2025: -2.91%

🔥 Top performer - YTD:

🥇 $RSG (-0,02 %) +15,81%

🥈 $V (-0,01 %) +6,69%

🥉 $DE (+2,49 %) +6,58%

🤡 Top Loser - YTD:

🥇 $TSM (-0,81 %) -19,13%

🥈 $ASML (+1,05 %) -10,71%

🥉 $IS3R (-0,36 %) -6,37%

💹 Transactions:

🔄 03/2025: $ISAC (+0,29 %) x5,55

🔄 03/2025: $IS3R (-0,36 %) x2,80

🔄 03/2025: $5MVL (+0,91 %) x1,83

➡️ 03/2025: $TSM (-0,81 %) x1,726

➡️ 03/2025: $ZTS (+2,63 %) x2,093

➡️ 03/2025: $UNH (+0,23 %) x0,796

💶 03/2025: Interest +€25.29

💸 03/2025: $V (-0,01 %) +1,05€

💸 03/2025: $ZTS (+2,63 %) +2,28€

💸 03/2025: $UNH (+0,23 %) +1,97€

🔄 02/2025: $ISAC (+0,29 %) x6,8

🔄 02/2025: $MEUD (+0,07 %) x0,50

⬅️ 02/2025: $BRK.B (+0,3 %) +51,29€

⬅️ 02/2025: $PG (+1,05 %) +543,98€

💶 02/2025: Interest +€25.20

💸 02/2025: $DE (+2,49 %) +4,06€

💸 02/2025: $ASML (+1,05 %) +2,68€

💸 02/2025: $COST (-1,23 %) +0,03€

💸 02/2025: $PG (+1,05 %) +2,83€

🔄 01/2025: $ISAC (+0,29 %) x5,75

🔄 01/2025: $MEUD (+0,07 %) x0,53

➡️ 01/2025: $UNH (+0,23 %) x1

➡️ 01/2025: $TSM (-0,81 %) x2

➡️ 01/2025: $BTC (+0,5 %) x0,00111

💶 01/2025: Interest +€18.79

💸 01/2025: $RSG (-0,02 %) +1,16€

💸 01/2025: $SYK (+1,18 %) +0,84€

🏦 Other investments

🎰 Collectibles:

⬅️ Pokémon Black Edition 2 sealed

⬅️ Pokémon Shining Pearl & Shining Diamond sealed

🔮 Outlook

I don't expect my income to increase in the coming quarter, but I do expect my expenses to continue to develop positively, as the savings potential of the changed insurance and electricity tariffs will make itself felt over the course of the year.

The savings plans will definitely continue as before.

If the correction on the stock market continues, I will increase further positions.

I will also continue to significantly reduce my holdings of collectibles and reallocate the freed-up capital to my portfolio.

🧰 I use these tools:

🔧 Tracking investments: Getquin

🔧 Company analysis: Share finder

🔧 Chart analysis: TradingView

📢 Recommendations:

👉 Current account: C24Bank - https://s.c24.de/t1NQ7ikwwc/

Broker: Trade Republic - https://refnocode.trade.re/hfxr6pwh

#️⃣ Hashtags:

#vermögensbau
#etfs
#aktien
#dividenden

Trump calls Fed chief a fool after decision + US auto industry criticizes Trump's deal with UK + Half of high-tech chips to come from US + Trade Desk beats expectations for first quarter

Trump calls Fed chief a fool after decision

• US President Donald Trump has called Fed Chairman Jerome Powell a fool following the Federal Reserve's decision to leave the key interest rate unchanged for the time being.
• "Jerome Powell is a fool who has no idea", Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform.
• He had already attacked Powell several times in the past, calling him a "loser" or "Mr. Too Late".
• The Fed had been on a collision course with Trump, who is vehemently calling for interest rate cuts, the day before.
• In view of Trump's aggressive tariff policy, it had opted for a wait-and-see approach and does not want to commit to cutting interest rates any time soon.
• "We have to wait and see how the situation develops," said Fed Chairman Powell when asked by a reporter whether the central bank should cut interest rates at all this year.
• The Fed left the key interest rate at a high level in the range of 4.25 to 4.5 percent.

US car industry criticizes Trump's deal with the UK

• US President Donald Trump's trade pact with the UK has gone down badly with the US automotive industry.
• The reason for this is the reduction in import duties for 100,000 British cars from 25 to 10 percent.
• This would favor manufacturers from the UK over their own industry, criticized the industry association AAPC.
• It represents the big three US car manufacturers: Ford $F (+0,91 %) , General Motors $GM (+1,1 %)and the Stellantis Group $STLAM (+1,99 %)with brands such as Jeep and Dodge.
• Trump's government had imposed tariffs of 25 percent on imported vehicles and components.
• The US manufacturers produce some car models in Mexico and Canada and also source parts from there for production in the USA.
• A large proportion of these are initially exempt from the tariffs as long as the requirements of the USMCA free trade agreement are met.
• Association sees damage for US industry
• Over time, however, the foreign components of USMCA-compliant imported vehicles will also be subject to a 25 percent tariff.
• The trade pact will make it cheaper to bring a British car to the USA than a vehicle from Canada or Mexico, half of which consists of US parts, criticized the association.
• This would harm American manufacturers, suppliers and employees.
• Trump's Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick had argued that 100,000 vehicles only made up a small part of the US car market but were a relevant amount for British manufacturers such as Rolls-Royce, Bentley, Jaguar and Land Rover.

US Secretary of Commerce: Half of high-tech chips to come from the USA

• US President Donald Trump's administration has set a new ambitious target for the semiconductor market: 50 percent of modern high-tech chips are to be produced in the USA.
• This should give the country the "firepower" to develop artificial intelligence, said Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick on US broadcaster CNBC.
• The majority of chips have been produced in Asia for decades.
• The most modern semiconductors for smartphones or AI data centers, for example, come from Taiwan from contract manufacturer TSMC $TSM (-0,81 %).
• There is great concern in the West that China could cut off supplies.
• Trump's predecessor Joe Biden therefore tried to bring more production to the USA.
• His government promised subsidies of around 39 billion dollars (35 billion euros) for this, and several plants are currently being built.
• Trump criticized the aid as a waste of money and wants to focus on tariffs instead.
• Restrictions on the export of US chips At the same time, Trump's government under Biden overturned export barriers for AI technology.
• Export restrictions were planned for many countries - to prevent chips and software from reaching countries such as China via detours.
• Lutnick criticized that this would have cut off allies such as Poland from modern US technology.
• The Trump administration has a different approach.
• According to this, chip deliveries should be permitted if they come to data centers of US operators, said Lutnick.
• As a second requirement, the data center would have to be connected to a cloud infrastructure "from someone we trust".

The Trade Desk $TTD (+1,56 %)exceeds expectations for the first quarter thanks to strong demand for advertising technology

• Trade Desk released first-quarter revenue and earnings figures on Thursday that beat analysts' expectations thanks to strong demand for automated ad-buying technology.
• The company's shares rose by 14% in after-hours trading.
• The advertising company's strong results come at a time when companies are reducing their marketing spending due to prevailing recession fears and the uncertain economic situation.
• The advertising platform offers advertisers access to an extensive network of publishers and media partners across a range of industries, enabling them to target their advertising campaigns with precision.
• The Trade Desk is expanding support for its advertising ID "Unified ID 2.0" (UID2), which it says is more privacy-focused and an improvement and alternative to third-party cookies.
• Revenue increased by 25% to USD 616 million in the first quarter, exceeding estimates of USD 584 million, according to data from LSEG.
• On an adjusted basis, the company posted earnings of 33 cents per share for the quarter, above estimates of 25 cents.
• Trade Desk, which has partnerships with retailers such as Walmart, is forecasting second-quarter sales of at least $682 million, slightly below analysts' average estimate of $683.2 million.

Friday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

• ex-dividend of individual stocks
• Allianz EUR 15.40
• MTU Aero Engines EUR 2.20
• Talanx EUR 2.70
• IBM USD 1.68
• Mensch und Maschine Software EUR 1.85
• Kuehne + Nagel International 8.25 CH
• Pfizer 0.43 USD
• Walmart 0.24 USD

• Quarterly figures / company dates USA / Asia
• 16:00 Colgate-Palmolive | AbbVie AGM

• Quarterly figures / company dates Europe
• 07:00 Commerzbank | Krones Quarterly figures
• 07:30 Bechtle quarterly figures
• 08:00 PNE AG | International Consolidated Airlines Quarterly figures
• 09:00 Commerzbank Analyst Conference
• 10:00 Drägerwerk AGM | PNE AG Analyst and Press Conference
• 10:30 Commerzbank | Bechtle PK
• 11:00 Villeroy & Boch AGM
• 13:00 Krones Analyst Conference

• Economic data

04:00 CN: April trade balance PROGNOSE: +97.60bn USD previous: +102.64bn USD Exports PROGNOSE: +2.5% yoy previous: +12.4% yoy Imports PROGNOSE: -5.5% yoy previous: -4.3% yoy

12:45 IS: Fed Governor Barr and Fed Governor Kugler (14:30) and Fed Governor Waller (17:30) et al, Reykjavik Economic Conference

14:30 US: Fed Richmond President Barkin to participate in Loudon County Chamber of Commerce Fireside Chat

16:00 US: Fed-Chicago President Goolsbee, attends Fed list-serve event

17:30 US: Fed Richmond President Barkin, attends Greater Washington Board of Trade event

No time specified:

- DE: Start of the trade fair "Invest - the financial event for your future ", Stuttgart

- RU: China's President Xi, visit to Russia

- FR: France's President Macron and Poland's Prime Minister Tusk sign defense agreement