Puestos
288You have $5,000 to build a portfolio, how are you building it based on these prices:
$1,000 each - $AAPL (+1,9 %)
$TSLA (+7,29 %)
$NVDA (+0,32 %)
$MSFT (+1,74 %)
$META (+0,41 %)
$750 each - $HD (-0,16 %)
$SBUX (-0,51 %)
$LOW (-0,45 %)
$AVGO (+0,14 %)
$500 each - $JNJ (-0,64 %)
$ABBV (-0,21 %)
$CSCO (-1,67 %)
$UNH (-0,25 %)
I have been a Starbucks investor for almost three years. I’ve loved the growth, and especially the dividend growth (5-year CAGR of 8.58%). As many know, Starbucks is currently in a rebuild stage, and like many other investors, I’m concerned about the current dividend payout ratio of 120.88%. With a number this high, there’s a possibility of no upcoming dividend hike — and, in the worst case, a dividend cut.
I hope I’m wrong, but for now, I’m out. Instead, I’ve opened a position in $MSCI (-0,24 %)
What do you guys think about $SBUX (-0,51 %) ?
Vendi Starbucks, nos últimos trimestres o crescimento abrandou, as vendas comparáveis caíram e a margem encolheu.
O payout ratio já vai acima dos 100%, o que significa que estão a pagar mais em dividendos do que geram em lucros. E mesmo assim, o yield é baixo… ou seja, esforço grande, retorno pequeno.
Com um P/E de quase 40x, com um market cap ainda gigante...
Não quero manter, troquei a ordem por McDonald’s, dividendos mais sustentáveis, crescimento consistente e um historial que me dá mais confiança no longo prazo.
Subscribe to the podcast to prevent Novo Nordisk from falling further.
00:00:00 Market situation
00:15:10 BAT $BATS (-0,46 %)
00:42:40 Starbucks $SBUX (-0,51 %)
01:10:00 Novo Nordisk $NOVO B (+0,98 %)
01:48:31 Strategy $MSTR (+1,49 %)
Spotify
https://open.spotify.com/episode/7EFAjNvm6NM7aRIWua4hs6?si=-7yl3opfQOGyDVPoxXMlLg
YouTube
Apple Podcast
🔹 Revenue: $9.5B (Est. $9.29B) 🟢; +4% YoY
🔹 Adj EPS: $0.50 (Est. $0.65) 🔴; -46% YoY
🔹 Oper Margin: 10.1% (Est. 11.6%) 🔴; -660 bps YoY
🔹 Comparable Store Sales: -2% (Est. -1.5%) 🔴
🔹 Comparable Transactions: -2% (Est. -2.7%) 🟢
🔹 Discrete Tax Item Impact: -$0.11 on EPS
North America
🔹 Revenue: $6.93B; UP +2% YoY
🔹 Comp Sales: -2% (Est. -2.4%) 🟡
🔹 U.S. Comp Sales: -2% (Est. -2.53%) 🟢
🔹 Operating Income: $918.7M; DOWN -36% YoY
🔹 Operating Margin: 13.3%; DOWN -770 bps YoY
🔹 Transactions: -3%; Ticket: +1%
🔹 Store Count: 18,734; UP +3% YoY
International
🔹 Revenue: $2.01B; UP +9% YoY
🔹 Comp Sales: 0% (Est. +2.09%) 🔴
🔹 China Comp Sales: +2% (Est. +1.44%) 🟢
🔹 Operating Income: $272.7M; DOWN -5% YoY
🔹 Operating Margin: 13.6%; DOWN -200 bps YoY
🔹 China Transactions: +6%; Ticket: -4%
🔹 Store Count: 22,363; UP +5% YoY
Channel Development
🔹 Revenue: $483.8M; UP +10% YoY
🔹 Operating Income: $218.4M; DOWN -7% YoY
🔹 Operating Margin: 45.1%; DOWN -860 bps YoY
Other Metrics & Updates
🔹 Global Store Count: 41,097 (53% company-operated)
🔹 Net New Stores Added in Q3: +308
🔹 U.S. + China = 61% of total stores
CEO Commentary
🔸 “We’ve fixed a lot... we are ahead of schedule. In 2026, we’ll unleash a wave of innovation that fuels growth.” – CEO Brian Niccol
🔸 “We’re building back a better Starbucks experience and a better business.”
CFO Commentary
🔸 “Q3 EPS was negatively impacted by $0.11 from one-time investments and tax items.” – CFO Cathy Smith
🔸 “We are focused on durable, sustainable long-term growth.”
Capital Allocation
🔹 Quarterly Dividend: $0.61/share, payable Aug 29, 2025
🔹 Dividend CAGR: 18% over 61 consecutive quarters
Strategic Updates
🔸 $1.75B bond issuance completed in May for general purposes
🔸 New COO and board members appointed in June
🔸 Largest-ever Leadership Experience 2025 held with 14,000+ attendees
$HEIA (-1,08 %)
$EL (-0,67 %)
$NUE (-1,22 %)
$CDNS (-2,87 %)
$WM (-1,07 %)
$MSFT (+1,74 %)
$V (-1,22 %)
$OR (-0,77 %)
$AZN (-1,21 %)
$MRK (-2,48 %)
$PG (-0,41 %)
$SBUX (-0,51 %)
$BCS (-0,28 %)
$META (+0,41 %)
$BABA (-0,3 %)
$QCOM (+0,26 %)
$AIR (+0 %)
$HSBC (-0,43 %)
$GSK (-1,79 %)
$MBG (-0,84 %)
$F (-0,4 %)
$AAPL (+1,9 %)
$AMZN (-0,74 %)
$MA (-1,2 %)
$7203 (-0,93 %)
$SHEL (-0,74 %)
$005930
$SNY (-0,99 %)
$CMCSA (-1,06 %)
$COIN (+0,07 %)
$NET (-1,57 %)
$XOM (+0,01 %)
$CVX (-0,6 %)
$CS (-0,05 %)
$NTDOY (-1,93 %)
$CL (-0,72 %)
$DTG (-0,17 %)
$UNH (-0,25 %)
Hello lovelies,
The price of eggs has allegedly been lowered 🍊. However, it is currently causing a huge price increase for coffee and juice.
Which companies could be affected by this?
$SBUX (-0,51 %)
$MCD (-0,63 %)
$MDLZ (-0,66 %)
$HSY (-0,69 %) etc.
If 50 percent tariffs are imposed on imports from Brazil from August, US consumers could face massive price increases for coffee and orange juice. Experts warn that supply chains could come to a standstill.
US consumers face the threat of drastic price increases for coffee and orange juice if President Donald Trump imposes tariffs of 50 percent on imports from Brazil as threatened. Experts and traders have warned that the import duty planned from August 1 would bring the supply of Brazilian coffee to the USA to a standstill. Neither US roasters nor Brazilian exporters would be able to bridge the price difference resulting from the duty.
America's favorite drink
No other country drinks as much coffee as the USA. Around a third of this popular beverage comes to the USA from Brazil. According to its exporters' association Cecafe, the South Americans delivered 8.14 million 60-kilogram bags to the USA in 2024. Other foods are also likely to become more expensive. For example, more than half of the orange juice sold in the USA comes from Brazil. Other export products include sugar, wood products and oil.
Paulo Armelin, a large coffee producer who sells directly to US roasters, explained that his customers would probably not be able to pay him if the threatened tariff is implemented. Even without the levy, negotiations for deliveries this year would be difficult due to the 70 percent increase in coffee prices last year. "We will have to look for other markets, perhaps Germany."
lph/Reuters
I thought I would do another quality audit at $SBUX (-0,51 %) . I only go to Starbucks two or three times a year because they are so overpriced. But their coffee, iced coffee and cheescakes are really good😋 And since I'm on the road for over an hour, I picked up a little something to read. Unfortunately, the air conditioning works just as badly as yours😅
Liberation Day on April 2, 2025 was just two months ago, but it feels more like two years ago on the stock markets.
The markets have become accustomed to Trump's mood swings and the old adage is proving true once again: political stock markets have short legs
Monthly view:
My portfolio saw a massive rise in May and May 2025 is the second best month in the last 5 years with +8.1%. Only November 2021 was marginally better at +8.5%.
This corresponds to price gains of ~20.000€.
The MSCI World (benchmark) was +3.6% and the S&P 500 +6.1%.
Winners & losers:
A look at the winners and losers shows a completely different picture in May than in the last 2 months - Suddenly everything is green again.
On the winners is mainly made up of the stocks that have fallen in recent months: US tech
In 1st place is NVIDIA $NVDA (+0,32 %) with price gains of almost €5,000. This is followed in 2nd & 3rd place by Microsoft $MSFT (+1,74 %)
and Meta $META (+0,41 %) with price gains of just under €2,000 each. 4th place goes to Ethereum
$ETH (+0,1 %) with ~€1,400 price gains, finally making up some ground on Bitcoin $BTC (+0,03 %) . In 5th place is another tech stock with TSMC $TSM (+0,23 %) and +1,300€.
On the losers' side looked very relaxed in May. The biggest loser was Apple $AAPL (+1,9 %) with just under €300 in share price losses. In 4th place was Allianz $ALV (+0,48 %) with -120€, although this also corresponds to the dividend discount after the payout. So it's really significant when the dividend discount leads to a share ending up on the flop list of the month.
The performance-neutral movements in April were ~€500 - these are still lower at the moment due to the house building issue.
current year:
In the YTD my portfolio was still at -12,4% clearly in the red. Thanks to the strong May, it is now only -4.3%, although the MSCI World is still slightly better off at -3.3%.
In total, my portfolio currently stands at ~273.000€. This corresponds to an absolute decline of ~€12,000 in the current year 2025. -14.000€ of this comes from exchange rate losses, slightly offset by ~1.700€ from dividends / interest and ~3.200€ from additional investments.
Dividend:
Buying & selling:
Adjustment of savings plans for the second half of the year:
After a long time, there will be adjustments to my savings plans for the second half of the year. With Starbucks $SBUX (-0,51 %) Apple $AAPL (+1,9 %) and Hershey $HSY (-0,69 %)
three shares will be removed from the savings plans. Starbucks and Apple will remain in the portfolio, Hershey is still open.
I will be adding Allianz $ALV (+0,48 %)
which I have held in my portfolio for many years and bought individually in 2020.
In addition, the London Stock Exchange $LSEG (+0 %) and Iberdrola $IBE (-0,03 %)
will be added to the portfolio.
I go into these adjustments in detail in the YouTube video (see next section).
YouTube:
My portfolio update for May can be seen there again in the usual form.
Unfortunately, things are a little quieter there and here on getquin at the moment.
There are some private and professional issues at the moment that are taking up a lot of time.
Video: https://youtu.be/Pe59Z287-Zs
Goal 2025
I haven't really set myself any goals for 2025 due to the topic of building a house. A fixed savings rate is difficult to implement due to the issue (unforeseen costs and the like).
A dividend target will also be very difficult due to the high volatility of the US dollar.
That's why I'm focusing on other topics this year, especially building a house and possibly one or two successes in terms of YouTube.
How did May look in your portfolio?
+ 1
The next price war, on coffee. $LKNCY (+2,8 %) has reduced the price floor from 9.9RMB to 5.9RMB. Now when your coffee costs 30RMB and isn't much better, that's going to hurt. Plus you're lagging behind on selection and you've already lost your flair.
Starbucks won't have it any easier in China. Should actually be a growth market for them...
Principales creadores de la semana
