New Position:

Shift4 $FOUR

Increased Position:

Fiserv $FI (-3,61 %)

Another month, another update.

September hasn’t been great for my portfolio, let’s say. Up 1.9%, while the S&P gained 3.5% and the Nasdaq more than 5.4%. But give me a minute to explain why it might not be as bad as it seems.

First, I should start by pointing out that overall, since the inception of my portfolio, it’s still tied in performance with the S&P and Nasdaq, because August was a better month. But the key thing here is my long-term horizon: The month wasn’t bad, because I opened a new position, doubled down on an existing one, and further reduced my cash quota to less than 26%. I still plan to reduce my cash position to under 10% by the end of the year, and I assume that I’ll get countless chances during next earnings season or a tech rally cooldown. My core principle for reducing cash remains: deploy opportunistically, rather than all at once. Yes, I would have performed better so far if I had invested all the capital from the beginning, but the tides can turn in the blink of an eye, and I want to be 100% confident in my conviction before I pull the trigger.

As far as my two buys go, I discussed both regularly in my daily posts over the last weeks, but here’s a brief summary of my reasoning: Fiserv is undervalued, by any metric. The business is sticky, cash flows are steady and growing, debt is manageable and was necessary for the First Data acquisition. The stock lost almost 40% YTD, leading to compelling valuation metrics like a forward P/E of 16 or a FCF yield around 6%, all that combined with projected top-line growth in the high single digits and earnings expansion north of 30% next year and mid-teens after that. Although Fiserv is an almost irresistible buy right now, with a healthy risk/reward, for me, it’s not a stock for eternity. I wholeheartedly believe that the market will re-evaluate the stock at some point, and re-rate it at least 50-100% higher, but that’s where I see the ceiling for now.

Shift4, on the other hand, is a completely different angle. It’s a FinTech disruptor with a visionary, exciting businessman at the helm. Jason Isaacman has proved flawless execution over the years, so much so that competitors have become increasingly wary in recent history. Toast slashed prices for small restaurants to attract new customers. Why? Because Shift4 is eating into its market share – fast. Not only is that a sign of recognition from competitors and proof that Shift4’s strategy is effective, but Toast’s new model is still significantly more expensive. Shift4 is still in the hyper-growth stage, growing its revenue north of 25%, similar to cash flows. Nevertheless, the valuation is still remarkable with a FCF yield close to 6% and EV/Revenue less than 3. I believe in Jason Isaacman, I believe in the business model, and I believe in its future. This is a position I don’t intend to sell any time soon.

Final thoughts: I remain skeptical about the resilience of the bounce off the tariff lows and still expect some form of correction rather soon. However, I am highly satisfied with my current investments and would embrace a selloff as a chance to double down and open new positions to finally close my cash position. Also, I am weighing in my head whether I should have a hard cap on 15 positions for the future or leave it around 20-25 as it’s currently planned.

Excited for October.

Return since inception: +7.5%

Couldn’t Resist Anymore – Time to Stack Up on Fintech

Yesterday I finally pulled the trigger on two new positions I discussed just a few weeks ago: Shift4 and Fiserv. Well, technically, I added to Fiserv, which I already hold, and opened a fresh stake in Shift4. The timing felt right after news broke that Toast is slashing its prices to attract smaller restaurants and better compete with Shift4 and other competitors. But here’s the irony: even after Toast’s price cut, Shift4’s package is still meaningfully cheaper – and frankly, better value. If anything, this move validates Isaacman’s strategy. Yet the stock sold off on the headline before quickly rebounding almost back to prior levels. To me, that just underlined how knee-jerk and unjustified the selloff was. I liked the company before and weighed pros against cons for days, until I finally went through with it.

Now, why these two? Shift4 is the long-term play. Jason Isaacman has built a company with a clear vision, excellent execution, and the discipline to buy more shares himself whenever the stock dips – that’s real commitment. Founder-led companies are my favorites. That doesn’t mean it’s absolutely necessary, but especially for newer disruptors it provides a clear way forward and the innovator at the helm. Multiple positions in my portfolio are still steered by their founders – whether it’s Dlocal, Nu, or now Shift4.

On valuation: it trades at a forward EV/revenue of just 1.9, which is much more telling than P/E for a high-growth company. Still, even on that metric, earnings are catching up quickly, with a projected forward P/E of only 16–17 by 2027. For a disruptor in this space, that’s compelling.

Fiserv, by contrast, is not one I plan to hold forever. But it’s a cash-generating monster with a strong moat. At a forward EV/revenue of 4–5 and a forward P/E of about 17, it’s dirt cheap for what it delivers: steady high single-digit revenue growth and double-digit EPS expansion – including more than 35% expected in FY25. That kind of growth at this valuation doesn’t come often in fintech. For me, Fiserv is the undervalued giant I’ll ride for a solid rebound before eventually trimming at the right levels. Shift4 is intended to eventually replace Fiserv, but at the moment I can’t think of much better holdings to store my money, besides maybe UnitedHealth or Novo Nordisk.

Both companies sit in the same space, both carry some leverage from much-needed acquisitions, and both are competing in one of the most attractive sectors in fintech. But while Fiserv is my undervalued giant for medium-term upside, Shift4 is the future.

$FI (-3,61 %)
$FOUR

Fiserv – Solid, Cheap, Well-Positioned

Fiserv is the kind of company you buy when you want stability. It’s one of the more established players in the payments and fintech infrastructure space, with sticky products and a diversified client base. The stock trades at a very low valuation relative to peers, as well as historically – with a forward P/E of 17 that looks downright cheap compared to other fintech names, especially considering the rapid earnings expansion. Debt sits around 2–3x EBITDA, which isn’t nothing, but it’s supported by strong and consistent cash flows.

The upside with Fiserv is clear: predictability and scale. The downside? Slower growth (under 10% in revenues), and sometimes the company feels a little too “legacy” compared to the new disruptors popping up in the space. Every now and then, a story pops up about Fiserv losing market share to competitors, and that may have contributed to the stock’s recent downturn.

However, I think that the business model is very sticky, and Fiserv has established strong customer relationships, which will eventually lead to a rebound of the stock. The selloff wasn’t backed up by the numbers, which is why I invested. I told myself it would be easy money, a 30–50% cycle back around ATHs. The point is: I still believe in it, and the company is very likely to do well. That said, there is a disruptor that has caught my eye more recently.

Shift4 – Founder-Led Growth Rocket

Shift4 is a very different story: much smaller than Fiserv, but growing significantly faster. The company is founder-led by Jason Isaacman – one of Elon Musk’s best buddies and a strong operator with a track record of execution. I really like companies led by innovators, passionate about their projects, who use market drawdowns as opportunities to load up their own stake.

Shift4 has built an exciting business in payments processing, and while it doesn’t have a meaningful P/E yet – due to its focus on top-line growth rather than profitability – its EV/revenue multiple is significantly lower than Fiserv’s: around 2 compared to Fiserv’s ~5. In other words: investors are still getting growth at a very reasonable price. Debt is similar to Fiserv’s, around 2–3x EBITDA, so it’s not risk-free, but manageable as long as growth continues.

The bull case here is simple: Shift4 has the speed and vision to carve out a meaningful niche, while incumbents move slower. The only issues I have are stability and the risks of a possible economic cooldown, since the company is not yet a cash-flow machine like Fiserv. It’s intriguing, and I will continue to weigh the pros and cons. The reason why I don’t want to have both in my portfolio is that my core fintech holdings are DLocal and Nu – two of my highest-conviction positions – and I don’t want to lean too much into one industry.

$FI (-3,61 %)
$FOUR
$DLO
$NU (-3,45 %)
$NU

$FOUR

Earnings Miss Adj. EPS: $1.10 (vs. $1.26 est) YoY: ↑ 14.58% (from $0.96)

Revenue Miss Sales: $966.20M (vs. $982.95M est) YoY: ↑ 16.83% (from $827.00M)

$FOUR

Adj. EPS $1.07, Beats $0.71 Estimate

Sales $848.30M, Miss $868.30M Estimate

Volume: $45B (+35% YoY)

GRLNF: $368.5M (+40%)

Adj. EBITDA: $168.5M (+38%)

FCF margin: 42%

Backlog: $35B+

Guidance Raised for FY 2025:

Volume: $200–220B

GRLNF: $1.66–1.73B

Adjusted EBITDA: $840–865M

FCF Conversion: 50%+

Organic GRLNF growth: Still tracking 25%+