🚨 Disclaimer: This is not investment advice; I am invested in all the stocks discussed here.

These analyses are primarily for my personal decision-making - I am happy if they also offer added value for you 🙂

Here we go already!

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Europe's defense industry has experienced a boom since the war in Ukraine: in 2024, global military spending rose by 9.4% to a record high of USD 2.72 trillion - the sharpest increase since the Cold War.

Europe in particular increased its budgets (including Russia) by around 17%, driven by the new threat situation.

This rearmament is also benefiting US arms companies, as many European armed forces are increasingly relying on US weapons systems.

🤔 Trump 2.0 - tailwind or risk for US defense stocks?

Since Donald Trump moved back into the White House in January 2025, US defense policy has changed noticeably - with a direct impact on the defense industry and its investors.

📈 Defense spending on record course

Trump has announced a defense budget for fiscal year 2026 of over 1 trillion USD an increase of 13% compared to the previous year.

Of particular note is the ambitious "Golden Dome" project, a space-based missile defense system estimated at USD 175 billion and involving companies such as Lockheed Martin and SpaceX.

📉 Protectionism as a double-edged sword

At the same time, Trump is pursuing an aggressive trade policy:

• 10% base tariff on all imports, with higher "reciprocal" tariffs for countries with trade surpluses with the US.
• Doubling steel and aluminum tariffs to 50%, which will increase the cost of arms production in particular.

These measures could put a strain on supply chains and increase production costs for US defense companies. RTX (formerly Raytheon) expects additional costs of up to USD 850 million in 2025 alone as a result of the new tariffs.

👉 Importance of US weapons systems for Europe's defense:

Many European armed forces rely on US technology. Examples include the procurement of F-35 stealth jets (e.g. by Germany, Poland, Finland), Patriot air defense systems (e.g. by Germany, Poland) or Abrams tanks (Poland).

US systems are considered combat-proven and immediately available, which improves interoperability within NATO in Europe.

Europe benefits from US innovations (e.g. drones, missiles, fighter jets), while the USA receives stable sales markets in return.

Especially against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine and new threats (Russia, terror, unstable regions), Europe's dependence on US armaments continues to grow.

🚨 Even if Europe wants to become more "strategically autonomous" in the long term, US defense systems are irreplaceable for the foreseeable future. Anyone who wants to seriously pursue national or alliance defense needs US technology - both operationally and politically.

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📍 Stock analysis - Fundamental & Technical

Following this overview, here are six selected US defense stocks in detail.

For each share, we look at the strategic benefits, current business figures including management outlook, key valuation ratios, analyst assessments, the attractiveness of entering the market at the current price and the dividend situation.

ℹ️ My approach to technical analysis:

My entries are usually follow-on purchases as part of a long-term buy-and-hold approach. I do not try to time tops or bottoms, but look for zones where opportunities and risks are well balanced in the long term.

👉 Important here: sometimes "doing nothing" is the best decision.

If the price doesn't reach my buyback zones - then I simply don't buy more. Patience is often a better entry trigger than actionism (especially in the case of highly volatile defense stocks).

📉 I let the market come to me - not the other way around.

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📍 Lockheed Martin $LMT (-1,36 %)

Strategic benefit:

World leader in stealth jets (F-35), missile defense, space - essential for NATO partners.

Key points:

• Q1 2025: revenue +4%, EPS $7.28, order backlog at record level ($173 bn)
• Outlook 2025: EPS $27-27.30, stable growth - focus on F-35, missiles
• Valuation: P/E ~17-18, PEG ~1.6, debt low
• Analysts: 7 Buy / 8 Hold → Moderate Buy, target price ~+8 %
• Dividend: $3.30/Q, increase for 22 years, ~2.7 % yield
• 🟡 Entry from a fundamental perspective: 6/10 - Solid basic investment, but no bargain

📈 LMT weekly chart (logarithmic) - 50 & 200-week SMA, volume profile

• Current rebound from strong support zone, supported by 200-SMA and volume profile.
• Momentum slightly positive, but no clear breakout yet
• USD 495-500 zone = key resistance
• Support stable, but risk increases significantly below USD 450
• Currently: technically neutral to slightly bullish - with potential for a breakout if volumes continue to rise
• 👉 My potential long-term post-buy zone: near the 200-SMA (currently approx. USD 450)

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📍 RTX Corporation $RTX (+0,38 %)

Strategic benefit:

Combines military systems (Patriot, missiles) with commercial aviation (Pratt & Whitney).

Key points:

• Q1 2025: revenue +5%, EPS $1.47 - but tariffs weigh $850m.
• Outlook 2025: Sales $83-84 bn, EPS $6.00-6.15 - solid but cautious
• Valuation: P/E ~22, EV/EBITDA ~18, debt increased
• Analysts: majority Buy, target price ~+5-8
• Dividend: $0.68/Q, ~2.1 % yield, >50 years of increases
• 🟢 Entry from a fundamental perspective: 7/10 - turnaround bet with aviation fantasy

📈 RTX weekly chart (logarithmic) - 50 & 200-week SMA, volume profile

• RTX is clearly moving in an overarching uptrend since the low at the end of 2023
• Bottom formation 2022-2023 was completed with high volume, breakout above USD 115 was decisive
• Consolidation above the 50-SMA is constructive - pullbacks to the USD 122/115 area would be technically healthy pullbacks
• Trend: Bullish
• Breakout above USD 139 could trigger strong new momentum as there is hardly any volume resistance
• 👉 My potential long-term post-buy zone: in zone around the 50-SMA (122-115 USD)

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📍 General Dynamics $GD (-0,14 %)

Strategic benefit:

Strong in tanks (Abrams), submarines, naval vessels - broad portfolio + Gulfstream business jets.

Key points:

• Q1 2025: revenue +14%, EPS $3.66, book-to-bill stable
• Outlook: EPS +9-10% in 2025, robust despite weaker order intake
• Valuation: P/E ratio ~15-16, debt low, PEG high
• Analysts: 8 Buy / 13 Hold → Moderate Buy, price target slightly above market
• Dividend: $1.50/Q, 28-year increase, ~2.5% yield
• 🟢 Entry from a fundamental perspective: 8/10 - undervalued, solid basis, little hype

📈 GD weekly chart (logarithmic) - 50 & 200-week SMA, volume profile

• GD is technically stabilized, but with limited momentum
• The reversal at the 200-SMA was convincing, but the subsequent rise has so far remained capped below the 50-SMA
• Trend: bullish in the long term, neutral to slightly bearish in the medium term
• Solid support at ~ USD 245 - technical basis intact
• Breakout above USD 280 necessary to spark new momentum
• 👉 My potential long-term post-buy zone: in zone around the 200-SMA (245-250 USD)

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📍 Northrop Grumman $NOC (-0,85 %)

Strategic benefit:

High-tech focus: B-21, missiles, drones, cyber & space - Key role in future conflicts.

Key points:

• Q1 2025: revenue -6.6%, EPS $6.06 (adjusted), outlook lowered
• Projects: Delays on B-21, but backlog at $92.8 bn.
• Valuation: P/E ~17-18, EV/EBITDA ~13, PEG >2
• Analysts: 12 Buy / 8 Hold, target price ~+15 %
• Dividend: $2.31/Q (+12%), 22-year increase, ~1.9% yield
• 🟡 Entry from a fundamental perspective: 6/10 - technology leader with short-term pressure

📈 NOC weekly chart (logarithmic) - 50 & 200-week SMA, volume profile

• NOC has been moving in a broad sideways channel since the end of 2022 (~ USD 440-540)
• Trend: Sideways/Based, within established range
• USD 460-465 zone = central key support, has been confirmed
• Break above USD 510 necessary to release new momentum
• Current: technically neutral with a positive trend if it holds above USD 460 - a good area to hedge
• 👉 My potential long-term post-buy zone: in the zone around the 200-SMA (USD 460-480)

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📍 Huntington Ingalls $HII (-0,24 %)

Strategic benefit:

Only US aircraft carrier builder; key role in Navy ships & nuclear-powered submarines.

Key points:

• Q1 2025: sales -2.5%, profit -2.6% - production problems (shortage of skilled workers)
• Outlook 2025: conservative, stable navy orders, focus on efficiency
• Valuation: P/E ~14-15, EV/EBITDA ~11, PEG >2
• Analysts: Hold prevails, price target ~+15%
• Dividend: $1.35/Q, ~2.5% yield, 13-year increase
• 🟡 Entry from a fundamental perspective: 5/10 - value case with operational question mark

📈 HII weekly chart (logarithmic) - 50 & 200-week SMA, volume profile

• HII is not a trend value, but has been in a large sideways structure for 5 years (approx. USD 180-270)
• The most recent recovery after falling back below USD 200 was dynamic, but there is currently no follow-up buying pressure above the 50-SMA
• The area around USD 223 (currently) has been a pivotal point in recent years - directionless but stable
• Neutral in the long term, weak below the 50-SMA in the short term
• Key zone of USD 208-210 as a technical hedge (with high volume)
• Break above USD 235 necessary to open up space to USD 260
• Currently: range-bound character, with trading opportunities within established range
• → Long-term breakout above USD 270 would be necessary to release new momentum
• 👉 Currently no additional buying planned

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📍 CACI International $CACI (+1,42 %)

Strategic benefit:

Specialist in cybersecurity, intelligence & AI - delivers digital capabilities for the modern military.

Key points:

• Q3 FY25: revenue +11.8%, book-to-bill >1, guidance raised
• Forecast 2025: EPS ~$24, sales ~$8.3 bn, strong organic growth
• Valuation: P/E ~18, EV/EBITDA ~12, PEG ~1, debt moderate
• Analysts: 20 Buy / hardly Hold - target price +20
• Dividend: None - focus on reinvestment & buybacks
• 🟢 Entry from a fundamental perspective: 8/10 - Growth story in defensive sector

📈 CACI weekly chart (logarithmic) - 50 & 200-week SMA, volume profile

• CACI was heavily overbought at the beginning of 2024, followed by a sharp setback to ~340 USD
• Rebound at the 50-SMA did not bring new high momentum → rejection with currently -7.3 %
• The large volume in the sell-off and the recovery indicate institutional activity, but also increased uncertainty
• Structure remains bullish above USD 350but shaky in the short term
• Long-term uptrend still intact, but with increased volatility
• Break above USD 460 would be technically strong - below that rather range behavior
• Current: technically neutral to weak, pullback was too steep to confirm new strength
• 👉 My potential long-term post-buy zone: Above the 200-SMA (350-370 USD)

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🤔 Now it's your turn:

Which defense stocks do you have in your portfolio - or are you currently looking at?

Would you be interested in an analysis of European defense stocks?

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📍 Sources:

Charts:
TradingView

• Reuters – World military spending hits $2.7 trillion in record 2024 surge
• Nasdaq/Barchart – Are Wall Street Analysts Predicting RTX Stock Will Climb or Sink?
• GovCon Wire – Lockheed Reports 4% Growth in Q1 2025 Sales
• RTT News/Nasdaq – Lockheed Martin Reaffirms FY25 Outlook
• GovCon Wire – RTX Reports $20.3B in Sales for Q1 2025
• Reuters – Rheinmetall, Lockheed Martin extend cooperation
• GD – Q1 2025 Results Press Release
• Archer/Barchart – Is Wall Street Bullish or Bearish on General Dynamics?
• Zacks/Nasdaq – Northrop Grumman Misses Q1 Earnings
• AINvest – Northrop Grumman’s Dividend Hike
• Reuters – Huntington Ingalls earnings fall on slowing volume
• Dividend.com – HII Dividend History
• Yahoo Finance – CACI Q3 2025 Earnings
• Marketscreener – CACI Analyst Consensus

...after everything here is full of Novo and I really hit the jackpot at the ATH (buy price around 115€...), I have a new entry in the pharma / medical sector :)

My investment strategy is generally "long" and the savings plans have also been adjusted:

• $VWRL (-0,85 %) 300€ p.M.
• $BTC (+0,28 %) 100€ p.m.
• $1810 (-0,17 %) 150€ p.m.
• $489 (+0 %) 50€ p.m.
• $DFEN (+0,7 %) 150€ p.m.
• $1211 (-0,05 %) 150€ p.m.
• $175 (+0 %) 50€ p.m.
• $RTX (+0,38 %) 50€ p.m.
• $RKLB (-1,34 %) 50€ p.m.
• $ASML (+0,35 %) 100€ p.m.
• $SHL (+0,71 %) 480€ p.m.
• Gold 50€ p.m.

So total investment per month is 1680€ / savings rate per month.

Apart from that, I still hold around 5k in cash at the moment (watchlist is filled with Google and various other stocks).

I would be happy to receive feedback and wish you a nice weekend :)

LG

Due to my own inattention or incompetence, I will liquidate the positions except for gold and BTC.

Why? I only realized today that this taxation of unrealized gains on ETFs is actually coming into force.

In order to replicate the performance of Info Tech and Defense as closely as possible (I still want to exclude Mag 7 and the savings plan options also limit me slightly), I am betting on these stocks (all are equally weighted):

$ORCL (+1,7 %)

$PANW (+1,36 %)

$PLTR (-8,34 %)

$PH (-0,67 %)

$RTX (+0,38 %)

Week in review 26.10.

New 52-week highs or all-time highs: Gold, Silver, Booz Allen Hamilton, Boyd Gaming, Carvana, Endeavour Silver, GE Vernova, Iron Mountain, L3Harris, Philip Morris, Reddit, SAP, Sea Ltd, Teledyne Netflix, Nvidia, Microstrategy, Palantir PayPal, SoFi, Wells Fargo, Welltower, Wyndham Hotels & Resorts

Palantir (+170%) points to 2024 Vistra (+231%) and Nvidia (+202%) the third-best performer in the S&P 500

Tesla +20% after good quarterly figures, best trading day in 11 years, cheaper new model coming in H1/2025, +9% since the beginning of the year

New Apple MacBooks with M4, Mac mini and iMac will be presented next Monday, Apple shares +26% since the beginning of the year

McDonald's E.coli - bacteria in burger meat, one dead and several injured, shares fall 8%, +1% since the beginning of the year

SAP with good quarterly figures, +61% since the beginning of the year

Deutsche Bank with good quarterly figures, +26% since the beginning of the year

Mercedes with poor quarterly figures due to weak business in China, -9% since the beginning of the year

Microsoft-shareholders want to vote on Bitcoin purchase for the balance sheet at the Annual General Meeting in December, Bitcoin +59% since the beginning of the year

Qualcomm and ARM are in a license dispute over the Nuvia takeover, ARM +112% since the beginning of the year, Qualcomm +23% since the beginning of the year

Lockheed Martin with good quarterly figures, +24% since the beginning of the year

L3Harris with good quarterly figures, +24% since the beginning of the year

RTX (Raytheon) with good quarterly figures, sales and profit forecasts raised, +48% since the beginning of the year

UPS with good quarterly figures, -9% since the beginning of the year

Texas Instruments with good quarterly figures, +25% since the beginning of the year

Coca Cola with good quarterly figures, +15% since the beginning of the year

IBM with strong profit growth but disappointed sales, +36% since the beginning of the year

Munich RE Profit warning due to major losses, +24% since the beginning of the year

Starbucks has suspended its forecast for the coming financial year as new CEO Brian Niccol seeks to restructure the company but increases dividend, +5% year-to-date

Kering with profit warning as Gucci weakens in China, -40% since the beginning of the year

Enphase Energy with poor figures, share falls -12%, -37% since the beginning of the year

Traffic light government decides exit tax on ETF assets from €500,000, savings and independent investing are penalized even more, prosperity and freedom are made more difficult and hindered

Loopholes in the rent control for furnished apartments remain

" If you want to read a review like this every week, leave a like & subscribe here.

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#steuern
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Earnings next week 🗓️

$SAP (-0,54 %)

$NUE (-3,51 %)

$VZ (-0,05 %)

$GM (-1,1 %)

$MMM (-0,61 %)

$RTX (+0,38 %)

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02.10.2024

Middle East escalation drives oil and armaments, airlines weak + Boeing considers billion-euro capital increase

Oil stocks benefited from the news of a possible conflagration in the oil-rich Middle East, as this is associated with the risk of a shortage of the raw material. Chevron $CVX (-0,6 %) , Exxonmobil $XOM (-0,31 %) and ConocoPhillips $COP (-0,68 %) gained up to 2.4 percent in New York. In Europe Totalenergies $TTE (-0,27 %) and Eni $ENI (+0,27 %) rose by up to 1.4 percent. In times of war, it is also not unusual for arms manufacturers to see share price gains. In the USA, for example Lockheed Martin $LMT (-1,36 %) and RTX $RTX (+0,38 %) recorded gains of around 2.7 percent in some cases, while in Europe Rheinmetall $RHM (+2,8 %) was particularly popular in Europe, with a rise of more than 5 percent. BAE Systems $BA. (-0,08 %) were 3 percent higher.

The situation was different for shares in tourism groups and airlines. For the latter, the risks of higher kerosene prices are increasing. Some travel destinations may also be canceled for the time being and the risk of terrorist attacks is increasing. Investors in Tui $TUI1 (-2,26 %) saw their share price fall by 2.5 percent. For the share price of Lufthansa $LHA (-2,53 %) fell by more than 2 percent. IAG $IAG (-2,28 %) lost 3.9 percent. Shares in US airlines such as American, Delta and United Airlines fell by up to 2.4 percent.

The US aircraft manufacturer Boeing $BA (-1,67 %) is considering a capital increase in the double-digit billion range in its ongoing crisis, according to insiders. The company is considering issuing new shares worth at least 10 billion US dollars (just under 9 billion euros), the Bloomberg news agency reported on Tuesday, citing people familiar with the matter. The fresh money from shareholders is intended to fill the manufacturer's coffers, which are becoming ever emptier as a result of years of ongoing crisis with flight bans and production restrictions as well as the recent strike by tens of thousands of employees. A Boeing spokesperson declined to comment. According to insiders, it is likely to be at least a month before Boeing gets serious about such a capital increase

Economic data, quarterly figures

Stock market holiday in China

ex-dividend of individual stocks

Cisco Systems USD 0.40

Quarterly figures / company dates Europe

07:00 Grenke new business 3Q

09:00 Gea Group Capital Markets Day

No time specified: Totalenergies Investor Day - 2024 Strategy & Outlook

Economic data

• 11:00 EU: Labor market data August Eurozone Unemployment rate Forecast: 6.4% Previous: 6.4%
• 14:15 US: ADP Labor Market Report September Private Sector Employment PROGNOSE: +128,000 jobs previous: +99,000 jobs