$MCD (+0,41 %) will pay for my orders for the next 3 weeks $HFG (+2,85 %) orders

McDonald's, a great dividend payer

It's enough for a chicken burger 😄

The last earnings Q4 2024

2024 2023

Turnover 6,388 billion $ 6.406

Net profit 2,017 bn.$ 2.039

EPS 2.80$ 2.80$

Decline in sales and profit, EPS could be kept stable through share buybacks. However, considering inflation and the severe outbreak of E. coli in October 2024, stable results.

https://corporate.mcdonalds.com/content/dam/sites/corp/nfl/pdf/MCD-Q4-24-Earnings-Release.pdf

The Krispy Kreme share $DNUT (+0 %) hit a record low on Tuesday after the company fell well short of Wall Street expectations. The share price fell by as much as 27% as fourth quarter sales fell 10.4% to $404 million. A key factor was the sale of the majority stake in Insomnia Cookies, which resulted in a USD 101 million drop in sales. In addition, a cyber attack cost the company a further USD 11 million.

CEO Josh Charlesworth explained that although the results were in line with expectations, they were heavily impacted by the cyber incident. Krispy Kreme is now targeting sales growth of 5% to 7% for the 2025 financial year - less than analysts' forecasts.

The share price closed at USD 6.61, down 47% on the previous year. While the S&P 500 gained 17% in the same period, the company is trying to focus investors on long-term profitable growth. Krispy Kreme also plans to expand its distribution points in the USA through partnerships with companies such as McDonald's $MCD (+0,41 %) and Walmart $WMT (+0,01 %) and Walmart.

As every Sunday, the most important news from the past week, as well as the most important dates for the coming week.

Also as a video:

https://youtube.com/shorts/qwz6dsaeNi4?si=uQ4zQHw4NJjDUFFf

Monday:

$MCD (+0,41 %) McDonalds delivers surprisingly poor figures. In the USA, sales fell by 1.4 % in the 4th quarter; experts had only forecast a fall of 0.4 %. Adjusted profit also fell by 5 % to USD 2.04 billion. However, McDonalds grew worldwide and surprised analysts positively.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/handel-konsumgueter/fastfood-mcdonalds-mit-ueberraschend-hohen-einbussen-im-us-geschaeft/100106947.html

Tuesday:

Turnover at the French luxury goods conglomerate $KER (-1,68 %) Kering declines significantly. The main reason for this is weak figures at the Italian subsidiary Gucci. Overall, turnover fell by 12% to 17.2 billion euros in 2024. The slump in consumption in China in particular is weighing on earnings. However, Pinault is seeing the first signs of recovery from China.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/geschaeftszahlen-im-newsblog-tui-erwirtschaftet-hoeheren-gewinn-jahresziele-unveraendert-/24098412.html

Wednesday:

$TMV (+0 %) TeamViewer shines with strong figures and is optimistic. Double-digit growth is planned again from 2027. The Göppingen-based company aims to generate sales of one billion euros as early as 2028. On balance, Teamviewer generated a profit of 123.1 million euros in 2024.

https://www.t-online.de/finanzen/boerse/ticker/teamviewer-will-mittelfristig-zurueck-zu-zweistelligem-wachstum/0DB4980021007F08/

US inflation data is somewhat hotter than expected, causing the markets to slump. Experts were expecting an inflation rate of 2.9% for January, which turned out to be 3.0%.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/geldpolitik/verbraucherpreise-us-inflation-steigt-im-januar-ueberraschend-auf-drei-prozent/100106814.html

$CSCO (+0,05 %) Cisco raises its forecast and exceeds sales expectations. The reason for this is the high demand from companies for AI infrastructure. This is one of the reasons why Cisco is also increasing its dividend.

https://www.ariva.de/amp/ki-boom-hilft-netzwerkausruester-cisco-11534732

Thursday:

The world's largest and probably most controversial food company is growing again. $NESN (+0,18 %) Nestlé is planning a dividend increase. Sales increased by 2.2 % excluding exchange rate effects. Profit fell by 2.9 % to 10.9 billion Swiss francs.

https://www.nzz.ch/wirtschaft/nestle-waechst-wieder-aus-eigener-kraft-ld.1870435

Friday:

The US economy 🇺🇸 suffered a double setback in January. Retail sales and industrial production were down. Retail sales fell by the most in two years. This was due to the low temperatures and customs duties. Industrial production fell, as economists had expected. The production of motor vehicles in particular was responsible for the decline.

https://de.tradingview.com/news/invezz:f6400bd08600c:0/

These are the most important dates for the coming week:

Monday: 00:50 GDP figures (Japan)

Wednesday: 20:00 FOMC minutes (USA)

Thursday: 08:00 Producer prices (DE)

Can you think of any other dates? Write it in the comments 👇

#bip
#japan
#fomc
#erzeugerpreise

Today I would like to give you an insight into the analyst conference of $MCD (+0,41 %) (McDonald's) analyst conference that took place following the fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings announcement today. It was an interesting discussion that highlighted some key points and future strategies for the company.

First of all, it was emphasized that McDonald's did not quite meet expectations in 2024especially in terms of sales growth. Nevertheless, the resilience of the system and the efforts of employees, franchisees and suppliers were highlighted. An important point was the impact of the E. coli outbreak in the USAwhich had a negative impact on results in the fourth quarter. However, assurances were given that food safety is the top priority priority and that the problem has now been largely resolved. A full recovery is expected by the beginning of the second quarter.

The value strategy was emphasized as particularly important. In the USA, the "McValue" platform was introduced in order to consistent and attractive offers and attractive offers. Value programs are also being strengthened in international markets to respond to the ongoing pressure on consumer spending.

Digital initiatives remain a key focus, which is why the company continues to target 250 million active 90-day loyalty program users and USD 45 billion in annual system sales by the end of 2027. The number of active users is currently over 170 million and $30 billion in revenue was generated through the loyalty program in 2024.

The expansion of the restaurant network is also progressing. The aim is to reach 50,000 restaurants by the end of 2027. 2,200 new openings are planned for 2025, with a focus on the USA and international markets.

During the Q&A session, a number of interesting questions were raised by analysts who shed light on important aspects of the business:

The analysts wanted to know how customers are reacting to the new "McValue" platform. It was reported that the uptake of the $5 Meal Deals and the "Buy One, Add One for $1" offers is in line with expectations. Customers appreciate the flexibility of the Buy One, Add One offer and breakfast has proved particularly strong. The average order value for a $5 Meal Deal in the US is over $10, which shows that these offers encourage additional purchases.

The analysts were also interested in the development in the international markets. It was reported that trends are positive in most markets, but there are challenges in the UK and Australia. The situation in France and Canada has improved.

Analysts asked how the growth of digital and loyalty offerings is impacting sales performance. It was confirmed that digital orders and loyalty customers are spending more. spending.

The analyst conference provided valuable insights into McDonald's challenges and opportunities. It became clear that the company continues to focus on its strategic priorities and is optimistic about the future.

The share is up 5% today.

Stay tuned!

McDonald's $MCD (+0,41 %) has published its figures for Q4 2024 and failed to meet expectations. The US business was particularly disappointing with a -1.4 % decline in sales in Q4, which was mainly due to an E. coli outbreak caused by contaminated onions on Quarter Pounders.

📊Q4 vs. estimates [1]:

Sales: $6.39 billion vs. $6.48 billion -> ❌ -1.4 %

EBIT: $2.87 billion vs. $2.94 billion -> ❌ -2.3 %

EPS: $2.83 (adjusted) vs. $2.86 -> ❌ -1.0%

Despite the earnings miss, McDonald's shares rose by 4.73% in pre-market trading. This move suggests that investors may have been encouraged by other aspects of the company's performance or strategic outlook, such as its strong digital growth and expansion plans [2].

📊 Comparable sales vs. systemwide sales Q4 and FY2024 [1, 3]

Comparable Sales (comparable sales figures):

• These are sales from existing restaurants that have been open for at least 13 months. They show organic growth without the effect of new locations.

Q4 2024: +0.4 % worldwide

• USA-1.4 % (decline due to E. coli incident and weak consumer demand)

• International Operated Markets (IOM*): +0.1 % (weak growth, particularly in the UK)

* Countries and regions in which McDonalds itself is more heavily involved (e.g. Germany, UK, France)

• International Developmental Licensed Markets (IDL*): +4.1 % (strong growth, led by Japan & Middle East)

* Countries and regions in which McDonalds does not operate its restaurants itself, but licenses local partners and McD. also receives its revenue share and fees

Full year 2024: -0.1 % worldwide

• USA: +0,2 %
• IOM: -0,2 %
• IDL: -0,3 %

Conclusion:

The license markets showed strong growth in Q4 (+4.1 %), while the USA (-1.4 %) and Europe (IOM +0.1 %) stagnated. Over the year as a whole, however, comparable sales remained slightly negative worldwide (-0.1%).

Systemwide sales (system-wide sales):

This comprises the total sales of all McDonald's restaurants, i.e. both existing and new locations, regardless of whether they are operated by McDonald's itself or by franchise partners.

Q4 2024+2 % worldwide

Full year 2024: +1 % worldwide

Conclusion:

Growth in system sales was higher than in comparable sales, as McDonald's expanded worldwide and opened new stores.

🚀 How McDonald's plans to grow again in 2025 [3]:

More restaurants worldwide:

• 2,200 new locations are planned, with capital expenditure of between 3.0 and 3.2 billion US dollars.
• Of these, 1,600 will be in licensed markets, i.e. in countries where McDonald's licenses its restaurants to local partners and does not operate them itself.
• 1,000 of these in China alone.
• Net growth: 1,800 new restaurants (new openings minus closures).
• McDonald's is also aiming to reach 50,000 restaurants by the end of 2027.

More investment in technology & digitalization:

• Global Business Services (GBS): McDonald's is centralizing accounting, IT and marketing for several countries. This centralized management saves costs and increases efficiency.
• More focus on mobile orders & loyalty programs:
• Sales with loyalty customers increased by 30% to $30 billion in 2024, 175 million active users in the last 90 days use the program, which helps stabilize sales and gain market share.
• The number of active digital users is expected to increase to 250 million in 2025

Increasing investments (CapEx = Capital Expenditures):

• More money for new stores, remodeling and digital offerings.
• Annual increase in investment of $300-500 million by 2027.

Aiming for higher profits:

• Adjusted operating margin was 46.3 % in 2024, McDonald's plans to further increase the operating margin of 46.3 % in 2025.

Capital returns to investors:

• Dividends remain stable.
• Share buybacks with excess cash flow stabilize the share price.

Outlook Q1 - 2025 [4]:

📉 Risks and challenges

- Economic pressure on consumer spending, particularly in Europe.

- Challenges in maintaining growth in a highly competitive quick service restaurant (QSR) industry.

- Potential currency risks impacting earnings.

- Managing the recovery from the recent E. coli incident in the US.

- Navigating market saturation and operational efficiencies in global markets.

📌 Overall conclusion

McDonald's maintained a strong adjusted operating margin of 46.3%. Despite challenges in consumer spending, particularly in Europe, McDonald's outperformed the competition in key markets such as France, Spain and Germany, mainly thanks to its robust digital and loyalty programs [3].

McDonald's had short-term problems in 2024 (especially in the US), but is focusing on long-term growth with:

• Expansion in Asia, especially China.
• More digitalization & stronger customer loyalty through the successful loyalty program.
• More efficient business structures (via GBS) and better margins.

I personally hold my position and think that the upcoming challenge for the company can be mastered 🚀🍔

Thank you for reading! 🤝

__________

Sources:

[1] https://corporate.mcdonalds.com/content/dam/sites/corp/nfl/pdf/MCD-Q4-24-Earnings-Release.pdf

[2] https://de.investing.com/news/transcripts/transkript-des-earnings-calls-mcdonalds-verfehlt-prognosen-im-q4-2024-aktie-steigt-93CH-2869453

[3] https://web.quartr.com/pressreleases/2209628

[4] https://web.quartr.com/companies/5595