The past week was really impressive as far as crypto is concerned. The crypto cycle was impressively visible in miniature format. At the beginning of the week $BTC (+0,61 %) rose in the form of a staircase and has $ETH (+1,01 %) followed with a time lag. Altcoins then followed with consolidation.

In detail, for example $BCH (+0,84 %) , $LTC (-1,31 %) , $LINK (+1,58 %) or $DOT (+0,12 %) rose behind BTC and ETH.

You can also roughly see in the charts below how the money first goes into BTC, when this is saturated then into ETH and finally into altcoins. So I think you can really ride the crypto wave, despite the enormous risk.

But this is not investment advice! Icould be completely wrong. Please make up your own mind. This is just my interpretation. I will ride this wave in the coming bull market and since very little of my total assets are invested, it won't hurt me if I am wrong.

So that means I will sell off the BTC holdings first in the bull market, gradually. I will definitely not hit the top. If I project the past into the future, it should start from Nov/Dec '24. ETH and the altcoins will follow step by step before all BTC is sold off.

And how do I find my exit prices? By taking the current low of the bear market that has just ended and multiplying it by a factor. This is based on the difference between the low of the penultimate bear market and the last bull market. The factor with a discount.

With a discount, as the BTC will rise less in percentage terms than in the last cycle. At least that's what I think. So I then set myself several levels. As a further guide, I use the Bitcoin rainbow chart, which shows me levels based on the logarithmic chart and price levels in the colors of the rainbow. https://www.blockchaincenter.net/en/bitcoin-rainbow-chart/

If everything is bought, then that's good. If something remains, that's also OK. In any case, my sell levels will be so high that I will go home with a tax-free profit, as I stopped my crypto savings plans last December and accumulated during the past bear market.

So I have almost set my first sell level for the coins. I am still thinking about the factor level and the tranche size for the sell-off, which I will then set using limit orders. The whole process has to be automated, as emotions can destroy the entire strategy.

Why do I actually sell, even if I build up the stocks again later? Because I am convinced that, unlike the stock market, no value is created with cryptos. My profits will be the loss of others, there are no capital gains that can be distributed, as things are produced / created that are included in the economic output in between....

And then there are the videos by Balthasar Becker (see YouTube and X), who explains what could be the cause of the crypto cycle. Not the BTC halving (although I think this is a minor partial cause), but the "money printing orgy". So I believe that the coming interest rate cut will lift all boats. Until then, I'll be watching carefully, then the orders will be activated and cashed out step by step. I'm really looking forward to it.

The funds released will then go into an extra portfolio. I will use the dividends that the shares/ETFs will then generate for me from the crypto sales to accumulate crypto holdings again in the coming bear market. I then want to play this crypto cycle again later. At some point (>2030), BTC (and later ETH) will no longer have this extreme volatility, so I will stay with HODL.

I have also seen parts of this strategy on other YouTube channels. What do you think about it? Would you ride the wave or stick with the classic HODL?

The old year is over, the new one has long since begun. It's quiet outside again, no more flash-bangs to be heard. The only thing missing is snow and something that used to be called "winter". Time for a depot review of the past December 2023. As always, I will proceed in the usual order.

➡️ Shares

What a month it was! Even after a strong November, December went really well! The stock market tailwind that started in November continued in my portfolio. Great!

With the refund from the credit balance from the utility bill and some Christmas money from the family, I had $LTC (-1,31 %) and $VNA (-2,32 %) made additional purchases. I am firmly convinced that both stocks, which have certainly taken a battering, have upside potential again. This is not investment advice, a recommendation or anything similar, but merely my opinion. Both stocks have suffered from the interest rate environment. Personally, I expect a gradual reduction in interest rates in the future. As a result, I expect REITs and real estate stocks to recover. These will not be price rockets, but stocks that recover slowly and steadily. Vonovia has already been given the fight upwards. The portfolio has been slimmed down and the debt burden is falling. I think my speculation will work out. With $LTC (-1,31 %) the same way, this stock is still interesting for dividend strategists as a monthly payer, even if $O (-2,42 %) is certainly the better known stock. I'm sure some have also bought in.

At the top of my list of the largest positions in terms of volume are still $AVGO (-5,25 %) , $MSFT (-2,36 %) and $FAST (-4,61 %) . $FDX (-2,07 %) has fallen compared to the previous month. But that was to be expected for me, in times of inflation people are a little more cautious when shopping online and business customers are also trying to save money. Perhaps one less package? Perhaps a USB dongle with contents can be omitted and the contents can be sent digitally from A to B? Otherwise there are no major changes for me here, the usual suspects of the last few months are leading the portfolio in terms of volume and there is now some calm in the varied competitions of the previous months.

In the cellar, sorted by volume, I still have the $DHL (-6,85 %) and $CVX (-8,09 %) . They are definitely both hot buy candidates for me. I won't go into any more detail now, as I have made my opinion on oil known in recent weeks. 🛢️🤑

Incidentally, DHL is back on the plus side for me with a directed entry price; my very first tranche was also very high here before the fall. That makes me happy, step on the gas dear "yellow giant".

Now has also slipped $NKE (+3,05 %) to third last place. It's a shame that I don't have any spare cash right now to buy into the dip. I firmly believe in the company, even if the competition here is fierce, there is a certain amount of pressure from the counterfeiting industry and consumers are perhaps more likely to opt for a cheaper brand or generally consume less due to inflation and cost of living pressures.

By the way, there is still $CP as a real corpse in the depository cellar, simply because #TR no prices are displayed. I only see a price for #getquin
$VLTO WI (-4,69 %) but I don't include it in my analysis; the position will be sold in any case as soon as the minus suits me. Proceeds are currently going into the $DHR (-7,55 %) position.

If I look at the performance, the picture is similar to that of the previous months. $AVGO (-5,25 %) with +90% and $NVO with +80% and more. The tide lifts all boats, so the worst performance in my portfolio has now finally slipped over the -20% mark with $GIS (-1,39 %) . Very close by $CPB (-2,13 %) . Again, these are both great stocks for me, readers of my posts know that I also have a soft spot for the food industry and retail. In general, I'm finding that the Red Lanterns of mine are less and less dark red. I'm wondering whether this is just an effect of the end of the year, whether I've already reduced the price of my entries by purchasing savings plans, or whether my long-term savings are already bringing my performance closer to a long-term average. I'll be keeping an eye on this over the coming months.

Now for a first. For the very first time, I am also giving you information about the number of dividend payments. I was able to record 25 dividend payments in my share portfolio. That's a great thing, something I could never have dreamed of 3 years ago (and more).

As usual in December 2023, the dividends (including ETF distributions) were again somewhat more generous and showed an increase of 152% compared to December 2022. I am very satisfied with this. For me, December 2023 was the third-strongest month for passive distributions in the past calendar year. That fits! Of course, everything will be reinvested to accelerate dividend and portfolio growth.

➡️ ETFs

The clockwork is running! ETFs naturally also felt the tailwind of the stock market. They do exactly what they are supposed to do. "The easy way" for independent retirement provision.

Saving a portion of your net salary regularly in broadly diversified ETFs is the least everyone should do. This is no longer an option, but a lack of alternatives. Anyone who relies on the state pension is a fool, there is no other way to put it in view of the serious situation and demographic change! Even if you only start with $25 a month, that's a crucial start.

I started small myself, like everyone else. My first savings installment, back in May 2020 in ETFs, was €125. And I increased this quite quickly so that I reached the €500 region. With further salary increases and cost savings, I kept increasing the savings rate because I quickly realized how important it is to get compound interest going. And I didn't start building up assets in my early 20s, as in the "investor picture book example", no, I wasn't far away from my 33rd birthday and asked myself at the time how I could still manage to build up at least a million-euro portfolio by the time I reached the statutory retirement age, taking into account the sample calculations. And instead of failing perfectly, I simply started imperfectly and I can already see that it's worth it. It was the best decision of my life.

Back to my ETF portfolios: Three ETFs paid out in December and these are my largest securities by volume ($VWRL (-4,62 %) , $VHYL (-4,8 %) , $VUSA (-5,34 %) ). Two clearing accounts were pleased to receive payments. Looking ahead to the new year, we will continue with the $ISPA (-4,61 %) in January.

➡️ ETFs and shares once again

I originally started the 70/30 strategy at the very beginning with the usual suspects as accumulators. I abandoned this last year and switched to distributors. I want a good combination of growth and cash flow! In old age, when the distributions should at best cover my living expenses but at least plug the pension gap, I don't want to worry about selling the shares. That is only planned if there really isn't enough.

In my opinion, the proponents of accumulators are also forgetting that selling the units in retirement will incur order fees again, whereas dividend distributions (should) be free of charge.

Of course I already pay capital gains tax, but in my opinion it is simply very important for the psyche to book incoming payments on all securities accounts in order to simply stay on the ball. Many of us have not yet experienced a real crash that lasts very long. And the next one will flush many players out of the market again because they only see falling prices and no current income.

In addition, there is the nice effect that the burden of the advance lump sum is reduced at the same time and, in the best case, I have to worry less about how much money I have to keep in the clearing account or by how much the tax-free amount will fall at the beginning of the year.

In the end, every investor has to do what they think is right. Everyone must be able to sleep peacefully with their investment. And I sleep well in the dreamland of the dividend strategy, whereby a moderate dividend yield that will continue to grow is important to me, in line with the dividend growth strategy. Of course, I also have shares that don't pay a dividend; these are selected companies that convince me.

➡️ P2P loans

This is the first asset class that I wish I had never entered. I've told you enough about my last default experience and the associated exit from the class, so I'll spare you that now. I was only able to withdraw a few euros from repayments. Interest? Hahaha... you can forget it. Months ago, I would never have thought that I would see interest on overnight money and that P2P interest would fail, but the tide is turning.

Only Bondora Go&Grow is still running and this vehicle was allowed to receive another deposit in December, which consists of the funds withdrawn from the other platforms. I'm particularly annoyed that I haven't finished with the deduction from Mintos and Peerberry yet. I actually wanted to declare these sources of untaxed investment income for the last time on my upcoming tax return. So this clog on my leg will be with me for a while yet.

➡️ Crypto

DefiChain is the second clog on the leg that I'll spare you.

At the beginning of December, the $BTC (+0,61 %) reached a new level at the beginning of December and, with minor exceptions, moved sideways for the rest of the month. The others are similar, I'm not going crazy here, the last crypto savings plans were last executed at the beginning of December and then discontinued. I am sticking to my strategy of selling all holdings tax-free in stages from December 2024 to around March 2025. Accumulation will take place in the next bear market. I only refer to previous posts.

➡️ General information and a goal achieved

I am already announcing one success. I had set myself the target of raising €12,000 for 2023. I then raised the target to €13,500 in the summer. With paid-in capital from my net salary and reinvestment of the distributions of €13,898.44, I exceeded the target. I am very happy with this figure, but I can also see from my records that the success was achieved by investing the semi-annual bonuses from my job.

This year I want to put even more money into the stock market. The new threshold is €15,000. In the summer, I'll take a look at the interim result and if I'm well on track, I'll raise it to €16,000 - €16,500. I like to set myself high goals that I can also fail at. Because in my eyes, ambitious goals that are difficult but still achievable allow us to get out of our comfort zone and grow sustainably. And I would rather just fail at a high goal than achieve a goal that is too low too easily.

For the first time last year, I didn't set myself any other goals. That will change this year. I've already formulated some of them, but I'm still sorting them out. The number of projects should remain at a sensible level and largely meet the requirements of the SMART method. I'll write something about this in the next few days. I'm not rushing into it, but I'm giving myself time to complete the current year with great success on all levels.

Readers of my last review will also have read about the salary increase. For those of you who are also employed, this is now also on the agenda. I now know that there will be something, but still no specific amount. There should be some certainty in mid-January. Then, of course, I will make sure that a large part of the increased net salary goes towards increasing my savings plans.

Lastly: Threads went live in Europe in December. The platform differs from X, but is a good alternative. I remain active with both. I particularly like the link with Instagram on Threads. I've been thinking about starting a blog and reviving Instagram for a few days now, so YouTube will remain the only platform where I don't actively publish content, but just add my two cents in the comments (for now). Because apparently, although I've always enjoyed math more than writing and copywriting, I'm getting more and more into it. I'm keen to share my experiences, encourage people to take responsibility for their own retirement planning and wealth accumulation and disclose some of my figures to encourage people to make more of their current situation. And this despite the fact that not that many people will read it at the moment and there would be a lot of non-remunerated work to do at the expense of free time, or did you think that I would otherwise write such a long text on a Friday evening out of boredom 😉?

I want to make my contribution to financial education in our country, because let's be honest, as a society we are on average simply uneducated when it comes to this important discipline. Maybe a blog project has a purpose for me after all.

➡️ An addendum

I also see a positive development on getquin. The quality of users, posts and comments is steadily increasing. While there used to be too many pointless comments from immature users, they are now getting better and better and helping us to do what we are here for - to exchange ideas in our bubble, in our little financial world. 🥰#getquin simply has an influx of users who are really not just here to troll, but to learn, share and motivate each other in the long journey of building wealth. And I'm glad to be a part of it 😊

With this in mind, I would like to wish everyone a happy, healthy and successful New Year 2024! 🍀

After a long wait, the small repayment from the credit balance on the utility bill has finally arrived.

From one landlord to another.

Quasi pseudo-Christmas money for $LTC (-1,31 %)

It's the run-up to Christmas. Gingerbread and speculoos are on the table. The Christmas lights bring a pleasant atmosphere to the early darkness. Some traders are positioning themselves for the year-end rally. Time for the monthly review of November.

As always, I start with equities, followed by ETFs, where I - like many others, I'm sure - am seeing a good performance. This is followed by my personal tragedy with P2P. Readers of previous reviews will know what I am alluding to. And of course there are still the cryptos, where I will soon be taking my strategy to the next level.

I also take a general look at my overall financial situation and finish with a look ahead to the new year.

👉Shares

My share portfolio has taken a pleasing turn in the past month. No doubt the situation is similar for you. We all had a supportive tailwind from the stock market. 🌬️(For the sake of simplicity, I'm including December 1 in November).

While prices were being boosted, the first snow fell outside. Significant amounts fell in Leipzig and the thermometer had been around 0°C since the Day of Prayer and Repentance, and well below 0 all day at the turn of the month in December. Winterdreams ❄️, while things were hot in the depot.

Measured by the volume of the positions $MSFT (-2,36 %) , $AVGO (-5,25 %) , $FDX (-2,07 %) ,$FAST (-4,61 %) and $AAPL (-6,8 %) were in an exciting race at the top. It feels like every day of the past month a new one of these values has fought its way to the top. Attentive readers of my last reviews are now missing the former frontrunner. Yes, $WMT (-3,92 %) is no longer number 1 for me, but has been relegated to sixth place.

Will that change in the New Year, when Christmas, Back-Friday and Cybermonday are over? Speaking of retail, did you notice the jump from $TGT (+1,89 %) on 15.11. as well? Is that the turnaround? I'd be happy about that. Wallmart apparently did the exact opposite on 11/16.

I am holding on to both retail giants. Comparable competitor $COST (-3,7 %) is also on my watchlist. Another new exciting position for me would be $UPS (-1,35 %) as a counterweight to my FedEx position. I am also keeping an eye on the food sector. Perhaps $CPB (-2,13 %) top up or open a new position with $SJM (-1,96 %) open a new position soon?

At the very end of the portfolio is $VLTO WI (-4,69 %) a stock that I have never talked about before. The $DHR (-7,55 %) spin-off is on my hit list, I simply missed the quick exit after the spin-off and am waiting for a more suitable price. Otherwise I will stick with buy and hold.

Another stock that I currently have no access to and would like to include in the savings plans again is $CP . This is still not tradable in its "post-merger version". I find that annoying in view of the great share price performance, I want to add to it!

At the end of my chain are $CVX (-8,09 %) , $LTC (-1,31 %) and $O (-2,42 %) . I believe in all three companies. The REITs will perform better again as soon as the interest rate environment improves and I have no concerns about Chevron, the figures are right for this undervalued value stock. It was only in the October review that I expressed my firm belief in oil.

I can only underline this again and again. It was only in November that I bought electricity from the credit balance on my annual statement. $XOM (-6,83 %) from the credit on my annual statement.

👉 ETFs

The ETFs in my portfolios do what they are supposed to do. That would be enough for this investment vehicle. Broadly diversified across the entire global economy. They are the perfect asset for all those who want to have it particularly easy - in the fight against poverty in old age.

My current ETF portfolio is not a price rocket, but it is behaving exactly as I predicted. It is growing steadily in line with market returns and is also generating income. I am very satisfied.

However, I have made a change to one of my two old portfolios, which included accumulating ETFs from the early days. Due to the upcoming advance lump sum, I have replaced the old holdings of accumulators with distributors. I would rather receive taxed investment income than keep money ready for the advance lump sum, that is my way of thinking. Fortunately, the old portfolio was small enough that the capital gains tax on capital gains and the order fees didn't hurt.

Otherwise, I will continue to buy stubbornly and steadily every month.

👉 P2P loans

P2P loans are still a bad investment for me (with one exception). I still have double-digit amounts in Peerberry and Mintos, which I have more or less written off completely. With Bondora Portfolio Pro, there wasn't even a "commemorative cent" for repayment.

I was finally able to withdraw a small amount from EstateGuru, which I then reallocated to Bondora Go&Grow. Only this product has been performing solidly for me since day 1. Let's hope it stays that way. When I decided to get out of P2P, I was sure that it would be finished by the end of the year. Fiddlesticks!

👉 Crypto

The model student of the crypto market has behaved in an exemplary manner, settling in a corridor between USD 35K and 37K over the course of the month. Here comes the next step in my strategy: at the start of the new year, I am discontinuing my two crypto savings plans for $BTC (+0,61 %) and $ETH (+1,01 %) completely and allocate the volume from my net salary to the other savings plans. Why? For one thing, Bitcoin does not generate any income during the holding period.

Secondly, I want to actively play the crypto cycle (and only with this asset class). In the bear market, I have steadily built up holdings via savings plans according to DCA and have also bought more from time to time, and the same applies to ETH. In the coming bear market, I will reaccumulate the holdings to be sold at more favorable prices than in the upcoming bull market. As I cannot hit the top, I will cash out via DCA as soon as the last ATH is significantly behind us.

I'm getting out of crypto altogether, because the gains of some will be the losses of others. Especially with Bitcoin, because of the fixed maximum supply, there is no way to generate returns during the holding period and lending is too dangerous for me. We will see whether I will be successful with the strategy of selling tax-free.

One investment that I no longer mention and have long since written off for me is DefiChain. I found the concept very exciting at the time, but in the end it was a shot in the arm :\

Whenever I look at the DFI and dUSD tokens in CoinMarketCap at intervals, I notice that they have plummeted even further. It seems like a bottomless pit to me. It's a shame really, because the concept of tokenized shares and the potential returns really appealed to me at the time.

👉 General information & outlook

With the last securities savings plans implemented, I was able to see that I have just about reached my investment target from the beginning of this year. That makes me happy. Even if I hadn't achieved it, I'm more of a fan of setting my goals high than too low. The development of my net assets is also progressing well. I'm a long way from financial freedom, but I'm on schedule.

In November, I also received a rent increase and insurance premium increases. These are small, but I still need to adjust my budget. It's good that the fall in income tax in the new year more or less compensates for this. Now I'm just looking ahead to the salary increase and my annual appraisal at work for the current calendar year.

Above, I'm going to shift the funds for the crypto savings plans into ETF or share savings plans. I'll decide that in December.

Last month, I only spent around €840 without giving up anything. I bought myself a new jacket, had to replace deposits and even added to my Christmas decorations. If I was a citizen's allowance recipient, I would be entitled to a total of around €896. It's a great feeling to not have to do without anything and still be able to live on so little. Simply because you don't have to tie yourself to any big expense items and unnecessary subscriptions and just spend money on things that give you added value (e.g. excursions and hikes). And now I'm enjoying the pre-Christmas period.

I wish you all a peaceful and reflective time with your loved ones!

Partly #Offtopic: there is money back from the landlord.

Today, later than usual in previous years, my utility bill for 2022 finally arrived. I had already built up reserves for additional payments, but things turned out surprisingly differently. Despite the increase in general operating costs such as garbage collection and electricity, there is a credit balance. The depot is happy about an extra 60 euros! 🙃

I'm expecting the payment next week and then the credit will of course be invested.

Over the weekend, I'll take my time to see whether the credit has been invested in $LTC (-1,31 %) , $O (-2,42 %) , $DHL (-6,85 %) or in fractions of $CVX (-8,09 %) . Or would I prefer ETFs? The fact is: we are buying additional shares to increase the dividend stream a little and not only just exceed my target for the year as a whole, but certainly exceed it. Father State is also happy about this... a little more capital gains tax again.

➡️Und Tomorrow is another month-end closing with the tracking of net assets. A lot of work, but I'm looking forward to it. As usual, a report will follow at the beginning of December.

REITs and the transformation through "digitalization

The real estate industry is certainly getting hammered more than other industries right now. On X, I see some posts in which particularly $O (-2,42 %) as a "junk stock". I find that very unfortunate, since the price must be considered abstractly from the intrinsic value. And in my opinion, the figures are correct, among other things, the dividends come from the cash flow and not from the substance.

Of course, when I look at my portfolio, I also see other REITs that are not doing well in terms of price, for example: $LTC (-1,31 %) , $MAIN (-6,56 %) , $STAG (-3,66 %) and $DLR (+0,82 %) .

However, I think you have to look at everything in the overall context. On the one hand, the current interest rate situation is putting pressure on REITs, and on the other hand, we still have aftershocks from Corona, even if no one seems to think about it anymore.

Especially the beloved home office has negative effects on landlords of office and commercial properties. I see this myself at my employer. While the main headquarters of the German subsidiary of a global corporation is owned, some German branches are rented properties. While the number of employees grew steadily over the last 3 years, paradoxically the need for office space decreased.

Thus, rented offices were closed or merged and employees could alternatively home office/mobile working in shared offices or coworking offices. Those who wanted to also moved.

Especially the main office, which was owned by the company, became acquainted with the shared desk principle. Thus, everyone retained the right to their fixed desk if they came to the office at least 4 times a week. For many, it was no problem to sit at a different desk every now and then, since they mostly digitized everything. I myself still have quite a bit on paper due to my work in my niche and also have my desk in an area that is exempt from the shared desk rule.

Also, I'm in the office almost every day, it's just a stone's throw away.

i even enjoy the privilege of considering a desk and my shelves as "my territory". And besides, I find that having a stable environment of colleagues who also have a permanent place themselves brings constancy to this ever-changing world.

Now for you guys:

• What's your take on REITs, esp. $O (-2,42 %) ?
• And for the desk jockeys among you: What is your daily work like? What has changed as a result of Corona coupled with digitalization (among other things as a side effect)?

Of course, I know that some of the possibilities were already there before, but only really came into play with stay-at-home.

@Kundenservice

I have sold on 24.08. $LTC (-1,31 %) sold

Ex-day is 22.08.and payday is 31.08.

Unfortunately, this is now no longer in the preview for this month...