Valentine's Day + Gamestop to invest in cryptocurrency + Coinbase Global Q4 earnings with revenue increase + Nestle raises dividend despite profit decline + Cisco raises full-year revenue forecast + Producer prices in the US rise more than expected

Meme stock giant Gamestop $GME (-1,75 %)considers investment in Bitcoin$BTC (+0,72 %)

• Gamestop is rumored to be exploring possible investments in bitcoin to expand its financial horizons, according to people with knowledge of the situation who spoke to CNBC.
• Stock rallies strongly.
• https://news.bitcoin.com/de/bericht-behauptet-dass-meme-aktienriese-gamestop-die-zuweisung-von-bitcoin-in-die-schatzkammer-in-erwaegung-zieht/

Coinbase Global $COIN (-7,3 %)Q4 earnings with revenue increase

• Coinbase Global (COIN) on Thursday reported fourth-quarter diluted earnings of $4.68 per share, up from $1.04 a year earlier.
• Analysts polled by FactSet had expected $2.11.
• Revenue for the quarter ended Dec. 31 was $2.27 billion, up from $953.8 million a year earlier.
• Analysts polled by FactSet had expected $1.84 billion.
• The company said it expects first-quarter subscription and services revenue of $685 million to $765 million.
• Shares rose nearly 2% in after-hours trading.

Nestle $NSRGY (+4,01 %)increases dividend despite profit decline

• Nestle, the world's largest food manufacturer, wants to increase its dividend despite the recent difficult times.
• It is to be increased by five centimes to 3.05 francs, the producer of brands such as Kitkat and Nespresso announced in Zurich on Thursday.
• This will be the 29th consecutive increase in the dividend, despite a fall in sales and profits last year.
• The Group recently struggled with weak demand, high costs and the strong Swiss franc.
• Sales fell by 1.8 percent year-on-year to 91.4 billion Swiss francs in 2024.
• Adjusted for exchange rate changes and acquisitions and disposals of business units, however, Nestle grew by 2.2 percent compared to the previous year.
• The so-called organic growth is made up of price adjustments of 1.5 percent and volume increases (RIG) of 0.8 percent.
• Growth was therefore slightly better than experts had expected.
• The dividend is also a tad higher than expected.
• For 2025, the management continues to forecast an improvement in organic sales growth compared to 2024.
• The underlying operating profit margin is expected to be 16.0 percent or higher.
• In the medium term, Nestle wants to return to values of over 17 percent.
• Organic sales growth is expected to be "4 percent plus in a normal business environment".
• As already announced at the Investor Day in November, the Group intends to save around 2.5 billion Swiss francs by the end of 2027.
• The savings will be used to finance higher investments in marketing.

Cisco $CSCO (-0,55 %)raises sales forecast for the full year

• Cisco Systems raised its full-year revenue forecast on Wednesday, banking on higher demand for its cloud networking devices amid a boom in artificial intelligence technology.
• The company expects revenue of between $56 billion and $56.5 billion for fiscal 2025, compared with its previous forecast of $55.3 billion to $56.3 billion.
• Analysts on average expect 55.99 billion dollars, according to data compiled by LSEG.

Producer prices in the USA rise more than expected

• In the USA, producer prices have risen more strongly than expected.
• In January, the prices that manufacturers charge for their goods rose by 3.5 percent year-on-year, according to the US Department of Labor in Washington on Thursday.
• Economists had only expected 3.3 percent.
• The last time the rate was higher was in February 2023, when the core rate, which excludes volatile prices for energy and food, was 3.6 percent in January.
• Economists had expected just 3.3 percent.
• According to economists, the core rate better reflects the price trend.
• Compared to the previous month, producer prices rose by 0.4 percent.
• An increase of 0.3 percent had been expected here.
• The core rate rose by 0.3% month-on-month, as expected.
• Producer prices influence consumer prices, on which the US Federal Reserve bases its monetary policy.
• In January, the inflation rate in the US was 3.0%, above the Fed's inflation target of 2%.
• Inflation has recently proved to be stubborn.
• Economists therefore do not expect further interest rate cuts until the end of the year.

Friday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

Valentine's Day, think of your loved ones and not just your shares :)

• ex-dividend of individual stocks
• Siemens EUR 5.20
• Shell 0.72 USD
• Eli Lilly 1.50 USD
• Chevron Corporation 1.71 USD
• 3M USD 0.73
• Amgen USD 2.38
• Starbucks USD 0.61

• Quarterly figures / Company dates USA / Asia
• Untimed: Moderna quarterly figures

• Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe
• 07:00 Safran annual results
• 08:00 Hermes International| Natwest Group annual results
• 11:00 Borussia Dortmund result 1H

• Economic data

11:00 EU: GDP (2nd release) 4Q Eurozone PROGNOSIS: 0.0% yoy/+0.9% yoy 1st release: 0.0% yoy/+0.9% yoy 3rd quarter: +0.4% yoy/+0.9% yoy

14:30 US: Retail Sales January FORECAST: -0.2% yoy previous: +0.4% yoy Retail Sales ex Motor Vehicles FORECAST: +0.3% yoy previous: +0.4% yoy

14:30 US: Import and export prices January import prices PROGNOSE: +0.3% yoy previous: +0.1% yoy

15:15 US: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization January Industrial Production PROGNOSE: +0.3% yoy previous: +0.9% yoy Capacity utilization PROGNOSE: 77.7% previous: 77.6%

16:00 US: Inventories December FORECAST: -0.1% yoy previous: +0.1% yoy

20:15 US: Fed Dallas President Logan, speech at Southern Methodist University event

$GME (-1,75 %) is closing all stores in Germany by the end of January. The webshop is already deactivated and only shows a "Game End".

https://www.gamestop.de/

https://stock3.com/news/gamestop-game-over-2-16055103

In Part 1 I described my start as an investor from 2010 to 2016. Despite loss-making investments and bad decisions (buying AT&T instead of Amazon), I was able to achieve a portfolio value of €35,000. These experiences were to lay the first foundation stone for my future successful investment strategy (https://app.getquin.com/de/activity/PElWrODsmV)

In part 2 I talk about further setbacks in 2017 and 2018 and how the purchase of MasterCard shares marked the turning point in my investment career. Despite initial losses and professional dissatisfaction, I realized that my original strategy wasn't working and discovered the "dividend growth" for me. With a new professional position and a solid salary, I was finally able to really hit the ground running in 2019 (https://app.getquin.com/de/activity/LUkWiLtZKX)

In part 3 it will now be about the years 2019 to 2021 will be discussed. In these 3 years, my portfolio has increased fivefold. From €40,000, it went up to €199,000 in the meantime. But not everything was positive here either. During this time, I also made the two worst trades of my investment career. In addition to Wirecard, there were two other equity investments that resulted in losses of over 80%.

The year 2019 & the first share savings plans:

The year 2019 started with a portfolio balance of ~€40,000 and after my MasterCard purchase in December 2018, my major portfolio reorganization was to continue directly at the beginning of 2019. So in the first four months with Tencent $700 (+2,88 %)
Intel $INTC (-4,07 %)
Salesforce $CRM (-2,41 %)
Alphabet $GOOG (-2,32 %) and Meta $META (-1,11 %) (then still Facebook), five more tech stocks were added to my portfolio. In return I have BHP Billiton $BHP (-0,19 %)
Macy's $M (-3,7 %)
and Hugo Boss $BOSS (+0,31 %) sold.

Later in the year, the shares of Mercedes $MBG (-1,31 %)
and AT&T $T (+2,01 %) were also removed from the portfolio.

In addition to further acquisitions such as Pepsi $PEP (+3,26 %)
Nextera Energy $NEE (+2,37 %)
or Xylem $XYL (-1,46 %) I also recognized the benefits of share savings plans in 2019 and started to set up a pure "savings plan custody account". At that time, this was still done via comdirect or Consorsbank and each savings plan execution cost a fee of 0.75%.

Another sale in 2019 was the Gamestop-share $GME (-1,75 %) . Bought in 2016 to have something to do with gaming in the portfolio, but not taking into account that stationary sales are becoming less and less relevant. In the end, the share price fell by 85% - unfortunately, this was long before the memestock hype emerged.

My portfolio rose to ~€67,000 in 2019 and achieved a return of 23%. However, this was still well below the MSCI World and the S&P 500.

The year 2020 - Corona, Wirecard bankruptcy & 100k before 30 in the portfolio

2020 - a year that few of us will probably forget. While everything was still going reasonably smoothly in January and February 2020, chaos was set to break out from mid-February/March.

The first few weeks of 2020 had given rise to hopes of a very positive development in my portfolio. From the beginning of January to mid-February, my portfolio rose by almost €10,000 to €77,000.

Panic then slowly set in from mid-February. I still remember exactly how trading on the US stock markets was repeatedly suspended for short periods and daily losses of 10% were normal. At 0 o'clock sharp, I looked at the US futures and in seconds the futures went down by -5%. A cap for the futures, the futures loss must not be higher and you knew the next morning it would end badly for the DAX.

But when there is blood in the streets, you can make very good deals! So in March 2020 I bought the Allianz
$ALV (-0,14 %) for €118. This gives me a personal dividend yield of almost 12% based on the current dividend of €13.80. Unfortunately, I only bought for €1,000 in total.

Also Starbucks
$SBUX (-0,91 %) I was able to buy for less than €50.

The stock market crash continued until the Fed made short work of it and ended the crash single-handedly. The crash was ended with interest rate cuts and massive money printing and once again the saying "Never bet against the FED" proved to be true.

The stock markets then went through the roof and within a very short space of time were already back to a positive level compared to the end of 2019. Every share that somehow falls under the term "stay at home" was suddenly the hot tip on the stock market. Whether the Peloton $PTON (-5,46 %)

or Teladoc $TDOC (-8,8 %) everything went through the roof.

I let myself get carried away and did about 10 "Stay at Home" hype stocks into a growth savings plan portfolio. Of these, at the end of 2024 with Sea $SE (-2,53 %) and MercadoLibre $MELI (-4,31 %) only two shares remained. It goes without saying that most of them left the portfolio at a loss.

But 2020 was also the Wirecard year $WDI (-33,51 %) BaFin's ban on short selling, a year-long audit by EY, political backing and massive investments by German fund managers from DWS, UnionInvest and Deka vs. a journalist from the Financial Times.

Wirecard's claims that the journalist was in cahoots with short sellers and the backing from various institutions were unfortunately too credible for me.

When Wirecard faced the press and announced that EUR 2 billion could no longer be found, things went downhill and it became clear to everyone that the company was heading for insolvency. Before trading was suspended, I was able to sell my shares at a 50% loss and got off lightly.

Later in the year, I was able to conclude an extremely favorable leasing offer and sell my private car. The proceeds went straight into my securities account and I broke the €100,000 barrier in November 2020.

My portfolio then ended the year with a value of ~€120,000. At +5%, my performance was pretty much in line with the MSCI World.

The year 2021 - HYPE! Wall Street bets, crypto and almost 200k in the portfolio

The year 2021 was characterized above all by hypes. Cryptocurrencies, memestocks and memecoins were in the headlines everywhere. Gamestop, Dogecoin, SPACs and NFTs everyone had to have.

Traditional shares became almost boring.

One of the reasons was certainly the checks that the US government issued to its citizens. It was still Corona, many were locked down and suddenly people started gambling on the stock market.

The hype can be illustrated very well using the example of NFTs. In 2021, NFTs worth $17 billion were traded, in 2023 it was only 80 million - a decline of 97%. According to one study, ~95% of all NFTs are now completely worthless.

The madness in one example: Procter & Gamble launched a Charmin toilet paper NFT. This was sold for over $4,000. All proceeds were donated, but a symbol of the madness of 2021.

From a portfolio perspective, 2021 was great! In the end, there was a +32% return and a portfolio value of over €190,000, which at times in November 2021 was €199,000.

My top performers were NVIDIA
$NVDA (-3,63 %) with over 100% price gains and Pfizer $PFE (+1,91 %)
, which was driven by the vaccine hype and at €50 was twice as high as in 2024.

My worst performer was another 80% loss with TAL Education $TAL (+0,36 %) . An education company from China. Unfortunately, this was the first time I was able to experience the political arbitrariness in countries like China. Overnight, it was decided that education/tutoring could only be run as a non-profit. Of course, this was almost a death sentence for the company and the share price plummeted by 80%.

Asset development & return:

After the years 2013 to 2018 were forgettable in terms of returns, the years 2019 to 2021 finally delivered:

Year
Deposit value
Yield

2019 67.000€ +19%

2020 121.000€ +5%

2021 193.000€ +34%

Vermögensentwicklung 2019-2021:

Vermögensentwicklung 2013-2021:

Outlook:

Looking back on the hype year 2021, it is almost obvious that 2022 had to be clearly negative.

After the party, however, came the hangover in the form of inflation and the war in Ukraine. Sharply rising interest rates and global economic concerns did the rest.

In the next part, I would therefore like to look at the years 2022 & 2023. I will then combine 2024 with my review of the year in the last part.

#strategy

#personalstrategy

#etfs

#dividends

Podcast episode 67 "Buy High. Sell Low."

Subscribe to the podcast to keep Bitcoin rocketing.

00:00:00 Bitcoin, MicroStrategy, Coinbase

00:23:00 BlackRock

00:32:40 Nu Holdings

01:01:00 Alphabet & Meta

01:26:00 Unity Software, AMC, GameStop

01:38:50 Thomas von Finanzfluss, MSCI World & EM

Spotify

https://open.spotify.com/episode/373hy6ZTbixJ6jB4effhlc?si=U_f7l6tRQwy0z184kew35Q

YouTube

https://youtu.be/KyfA6BnxsV0

Apple Podcast

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/folge-67-bitcoin-finanzfluss-microstrategy-coinbase/id1695869891?i=1000679620189

$BTC (+0,72 %)
$MSTR (-6,56 %)
$COIN (-7,3 %)
$BLK
$NU (-11,11 %)
$GOOGL (-2,28 %)
$GOOG (-2,32 %)
$META (-1,11 %)
$U (+1,7 %)
$AMC (-1,5 %)
$GME (-1,75 %)
$IWDA (-1,03 %)
$EIMI (+0,06 %)
#finanzfluss
$SPOT (-3,66 %)
$AAPL (+0,26 %)
#podcast

Earnings next week 🗓️

$AVGO (-3,16 %)

$GME (-1,75 %)

$AI (-4,71 %)

$ADBE (-2,14 %)

$ORCL (-4,33 %)

$M (-3,7 %)

$MDB (-5,43 %)

$COST (+0,22 %)

$AZO (-0,72 %)

$PL

$ASO (+0 %)

$RH (-7,28 %)

$TOL (-2,87 %)

$BRZE (-2,66 %)

$LOVE

$OLLI (-5,13 %)

$HQY (-2,35 %)

$RENT

$SFIX (-6,98 %)

$PLAY

$MTN (+0,85 %)

$CASY (-3,24 %)

$MOMO (-0 %)

$VBNK (-3,19 %)

$YEXT (+1,46 %)

$DBI (-2,56 %)

$CIEN (-2,37 %)

$SKIL

$PHR (-0,37 %)

$HEPS (-2,66 %)

$MAMA

$GNSS (-4,1 %)

$NX (-1,52 %)

$ASYS (-7,5 %)

$UNFI (-1,43 %)

$FERG (+2,95 %)

$MNY

$JOUT

$GME (-1,75 %) The cat has opened X again and the price is already bouncing.

After being a mostly silent reader for over a year now, watching with interest what strategies and views others are pursuing:

Today I would like to share my first milestone with you - and most likely (never say never) my last.

After the last few weeks have been rather sideways, today I'm green again and have made a significant jump.

🎉A portfolio value of €1,000,000🎉

Briefly in advance:

My start in the world of finance began with a securities account that I inherited at the age of 20 due to sad circumstances. I never really got to grips with investments and 2-3 years later, I had completely different worries and suffering and would have gladly swapped the portfolio for a loved one again.

Now a little about my "strategy"

I inherited a lot of "blue chip" stocks and gradually sold some of them and opted for other stocks.

In my opinion, the "price increase" team is clearly superior to the "dividend" team at Getquin. I have always tried to find a healthy mix, and I have to admit that dividend stocks help me to get more involved with investing.

In the ~7 years I have been active so far, I have also had to learn the hard way and gain experience. Here are a few brief insights for those who are interested:

$TTE (-1,26 %) and $AI (+4,21 %) were my first self-made purchases, whereby I gradually $AI (+4,21 %) I gradually increased my holdings and fortunately was able to take a stock split with me.

My first speculative share $NEL (-3,27 %) had a price gain of 300% in the meantime, but was sold at a loss after disappointing figures.

During a professional training program during Corona, I bought shares $GME (-1,75 %) I bought shares and took part in the rollercoaster ride in which I was able to realize a profit of €1,500 from a €6,000 investment and a lot of sweating and excitement.

I bought 0.05 $BTC (+0,72 %) and was able to successfully hold it for 2 years and go from 0 to 0 before the BTC price went through the roof. You have to manage that first.

After the scandal of $WDI (-33,51 %) I thought, well the figures may be falsified but the company will have a conscience value and I burned another €1,500 at a share price of €1.22.

In addition, I couldn't quite believe the sanctions against Russia and shortly before the announcement of the sanctions $GAZP I bought shares worth €1,600.

At the end of the millions, the purchase of $PLTR (-3,33 %) where I can currently record a 450% price gain.

( Thank you Jan Böhmermann, your video about this "evil" company was the best advertisement )

I am now happy with my portfolio. In the long term, I am still waiting $WCH (-0,13 %) for a reasonably positive exit.

Of $SAP (-1,87 %) as I also work with it at work and don't see any competition in the medium term as far as customized solutions are concerned.

I would also like to increase the position of $ENR (-4,27 %) and generally increase my weighting with the Worlds funds.

I have currently set up savings plans of around €900 (€700 Worlds, €150 S&P 500, €50 EM)

In addition, I have a securities account not tracked here where I have been participating in a share program for employees for 10 years with my annual bonus payment from my employer. I also regularly watch videos of "Finanzbär" on Youtube where I am occasionally tempted to make individual purchases (e.g. $HIMS (-26,15 %) and $SHOP (-5,86 %) )

I can highly recommend it!

Fortunately, I can expect 3 salary increases in the next 12 months due to collective agreements and a change of position in the company.

I would like to use this to top up my savings plans and am considering investing €100 a month in $BTC (+0,72 %) or $MSTR (-6,56 %)

and we'll see.

My next goal?

Continue in the same way but don't forget that you are alive NOW and treat yourself to something. And if things go well, enjoy life in a southern country in my early 40s and no longer have to work 😁

With this in mind :

Cheers 🥂 thanks to all of you

02.12.2024

GameStop closes German stores + LogiTech to become an "iconic" brand + 4 important dates this week + Head of Opel parent company Stellantis resigns

The 69 German stores of the video game retailer Gamestop $GME (-1,75 %) are to be closed by January 31, 2025. This was reported by the industry portal "Gameswirtschaft". The American company's German headquarters could not be reached for comment. However, store employees confirmed the plans to the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ) by telephone. They had been informed internally. Pre-orders will no longer be accepted and vouchers will no longer be sold. "Gameswirtschaft" refers to information from the retailer's suppliers, which coincides with reports from employees. (FAZ)

The CEO of the computer accessories manufacturer, Hanneke Faber, wants out of Logitech $LOGN (+0,61 %) into an "iconic brand". Sales are to double by 2031. The brand's many fans are a good starting point. "Now we have to take the brand to the next level so that people really love it," the SonntagsZeitung quotes from a meeting with Faber in Zurich. It needs a "wow" factor like Apple. Faber also wants to make gains in hybrid work and artificial intelligence. Meanwhile, Logitech needs to improve again in China. Faber believes he is well prepared for possible US tariffs on Chinese imports. "We used to be dependent on China, now we have a broadly diversified global supply chain." (SoZ, p. 40)

4 dates that will be important this week:

• Details on US labor market developments in October

The results of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (Jolts) for October provide insights into the tendency of employers and employees to lay off and the number of vacancies on the US labour market. The month under review was heavily influenced by Hurricanes Helen and Milton.

>>> Tuesday, 03.12.2024; 16:00

• German incoming orders fall in October

Incoming orders in German industry are likely to have fallen in October. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires expect them to have fallen by 2.0 percent compared to the previous month, after rising by 4.2 percent in September. Overall, there is a slight recovery trend in orders. In the second and third quarters, it had already moved away somewhat from the low recorded in the first quarter of the year.

>>> Thursday, 05.12.2024; 08:00

• German production increases in October

Production in Germany's manufacturing sector was as weak in the third quarter as it had been during the coronavirus lockdowns. But while companies wanted to produce back then but were unable to do so, the opposite is true today. The cushion of orders has melted away and economists fear that the situation on the labor market could soon deteriorate. For October, the economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires expect production to have risen by 1.0 percent compared to the previous month.

>>> Friday, 06.12..2024; 08:00

• US employment figures rise more strongly again in November

The number of people employed in the US economy is likely to have risen more sharply again in November. According to the Factset consensus, analysts expect it to have risen by 210,000 compared to the previous month, after increasing by just 12,000 in September. The weak September figure was caused by hurricanes Helen and Milton. The unchanged very low unemployment rate of 4.1 percent showed that there was probably nothing more to it. An increase to 4.2 percent is expected for October and a monthly increase of 0.3 percent for wages, which means an annual increase of 3.9 percent. After years of fighting inflation, the US Federal Reserve is now focusing more strongly on the labor market.

>>> Friday, 06.12..2024; 14:30

Suffering from problems in the important US market and a weak industry situation, car manufacturer Stellantis $STLAM (-0,34 %) must look for a new boss sooner than expected. The Board of Directors has accepted the resignation of Carlos Tavares, the multi-brand group (including Peugeot, Citroen, Fiat, Chrysler, Jeep, Alfa Romeo) announced on Sunday evening. The Volkswagen rival had already announced in October that the search for a successor to Tavares was underway, as he would not be renewing his contract, which expires in 2026. A new boss is now to be found in the first half of 2025, the company said on Sunday. Until then, a management committee will be formed under Chairman of the Board of Directors John Elkann. Tavares led Stellanti's formation of the car giant through the mega merger of PSA and Fiat Chrysler in 2021. The manager only had to lower the profit outlook for 2024 at the end of September this year. The car manufacturer usually makes the lion's share of its profits in the North American market with large SUVs and pick-ups. However, there are currently too many unsold cars in dealers' yards, which is reducing sales prices. The situation on the car markets in other countries is also bleak overall. The company confirmed its lowered outlook for the year on Sunday.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/stellantis-tavares-tritt-bei-opel-mutter-stellantis-ueberraschend-zurueck/100091996.html

Monday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

ex-dividend of individual stocks

LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton EUR 5.50

Christian Dior EUR 5.50

Lockheed Martin 3.30 USD

McDonald's USD 1.77

Nike 0.38 USD

Quarterly figures / company dates Europe

07:00 Prosus 1H results

16:00 Prosus analyst conference

No time specified: Schneider Electric Investor Day

Economic data

• 09:45 IT: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI manufacturing November PROGNOSIS: 46.0 previous: 46.9
• 09:50 FR: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI Manufacturing (2nd release) November FORECAST: 43.2 1st release: 43.2 previous: 44.5
• 09:55 DE: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI Manufacturing (2nd release) November FORECAST: 43.2 1st release: 43.2 Previous: 43.0
• 10:00 EU: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI manufacturing Eurozone (2nd release) November FORECAST: 45.2 1st release: 45.2 Previous: 46.0
• 10:00 DE: VDMA, Incoming orders mechanical and plant engineering October
• 10:30 UK: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI manufacturing (2nd release) November PROGNOSIS: n.a. 1st release: 48.6 previous: 49.9
• 11:00 EU: Labor Market Data October Eurozone Unemployment Rate PROGNOSE: 6.3% PREVIOUS: 6.3%
• 15:45 US: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI Manufacturing (2nd release) November Forecast: 48.8 1st release: 48.8 Previous: 48.5
• 16:00 US: Construction Spending October FORECAST: -0.1% yoy previous: +0.1% yoy
• 16:00 US: ISM Manufacturing Index November FORECAST: 48.0 points previous: 46.5 points