Chipotle

Good morning everyone!

Do you think one can still invest in $RHM (-0,78 %) at the current price? Or do you think the share price is too overvalued? $BKNG (-1,19 %) , $COST (-1,09 %) and $CMG (-0,82 %) are also interesting stocks, but I'm not sure whether the prices are currently too high to invest in them. How do you see these shares developing in the long term? In $UBER (-0,14 %) I am actually in it for the long term and will soon increase my position, as I think that the price is currently very fair and I have a lot of confidence in the company in the future.

Have a nice start to the day everyone!

Chart technology from the picture book IV

+ fairy tale

Starbucks

It's not just coffee. It's Starbucks.

$SBUX (-1,55 %)

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The technical chart of Starbucks shows mixed signals depending on the time perspective.

The short-term and medium-term indicators and oscillators are currently pointing to a buying trend. There was also a golden cross at the end of September 24, for example.

The support levels seem to be holding well.

Over the last 2 years or so, Starbucks has tended to move sideways with ups and downs. (Beta 0.90)

I have not researched the reasons, but I can think of a few points off the top of my head that could have been partly responsible for the poor performance.

• The raccoon year of 2022 🦡
• The exorbitant rise in the commodity price of coffee
• In my opinion, the poor management of Mr. Laxman, who has since been replaced by Mr. Niccol (ex $CMG (-0,82 %) CEO) in the meantime 🥳.

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A look at the annual candles shows a bullish candle with a long shadow for 2024. This could be a bullish reversal signal. The CEO change was received very positively by the market and has also led to increased buying volume again.

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If you look at the chat with monthly candles, on the other hand, you can see a bullish flag in my opinion, but it could still turn bearish.

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Conclusion:

In my opinion, Starbucks is currently not an attractive investment in view of the market uncertainty that can be seen in the chart, the negative equity and the high level of debt. Starbucks could be more interesting for a trader. As always, just my opinion and a lot of gut feeling 🤓

Aftermarket after quarterly figures

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+5% Snap $SNAP (+0,45 %)

+4% Alphabet $GOOGL (+0,94 %)
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+4% Stryker $SYK (+1,48 %)

+2% Visa $V (-0,14 %)

+1% Unum $UNM (+0,86 %)

+0% Chubb $8240

+0% Mondelez $MDLZ (-1,01 %)

-2% Chipotle Mexican Grill $CMG (-0,82 %)

-3% Caesars Entertainment $CZR (-2,02 %)

-3% First Solar $FSLR (+1,24 %)

-7% AMD $AMD (-0,35 %)

-15% Qorvo $QRVO (+2,62 %)

#aktien
#börse
#quartalszahlen
#earnings
#wallstreet

Chipotle Q3 2024 $CMG (-0,82 %)

Financial performance

Chipotle reported a 13.0% increase in sales to $2.8 billion in the third quarter of 2024, driven by new store openings and a 6.0% increase in comparable restaurant sales. The latter was driven by a 3.3% increase in transactions and a 2.7% increase in average cash receipts.

Balance sheet analysis

As of September 30, 2024, Chipotle's total assets amounted to USD 9.01 billion, compared to USD 8.04 billion at the end of 2023. The increase is mainly due to higher cash and cash equivalents, which increased from USD 560.6 million to USD 698.5 million. Liabilities increased to USD 5.40 billion, with long-term lease liabilities accounting for a significant proportion.

Income statement

For the nine months ended September 30, 2024, Chipotle's net income was USD 1.20 billion, compared to USD 946.7 million in the previous year. The operating margin increased to 16.9% (previously 16.0%), while the restaurant margin decreased slightly to 25.5% (previously 26.3%).

Cash flow analysis

Net cash inflow from operating activities amounted to USD 1.58 billion for the first nine months of the year, compared with USD 1.52 billion in the previous year. The company invested USD 701.5 million, mainly in expansions and investments. Cash outflow from financing activities amounted to USD 734.9 million, due to share buybacks.

Key figures and profitability

Diluted earnings per share (EPS) increased by 21.7 % to USD 0.28. Adjusted diluted EPS rose by 17.4% to USD 0.27. The effective tax rate amounted to 22.9 % and was thus slightly below the previous year's figure of 24.2 %.

Competitive analysis

Chipotle's focus on quality people, products and efficiency, along with the reintroduction of Smoked Brisket, contributed to the strong results. The company plans to increase the number of restaurants in North America to 7,000, indicating a focused expansion strategy.

Forecasts and comments from management

Management emphasized the importance of its five key strategies to ensure current success and long-term growth. The priority remains to offer guests exceptional value and a customizable culinary experience.

Risks and opportunities

• RisksInflation in raw material costs, particularly for avocados and dairy products, could put pressure on margins.
• Opportunities: The success of Chipotlanes and the popularity of smoked brisket offer potential for increased sales and customer loyalty.

Summary and strategic implications

Chipotle's strong financial performance in the third quarter of 2024, characterized by significant sales growth and improved profitability, illustrates the effectiveness of its strategic actions. The company's expansion plans and focus on customer experience through Chipotlanes and menu innovations position the company well for future growth. However, managing raw material cost inflation remains a key challenge. Overall, Chipotle's strategic direction is consistent with its long-term goals of expanding its restaurant footprint and strengthening its brand presence globally.

Positive statements

• Sales growthChipotle reported sales growth of 13.0%, totaling $2.8 billion in the third quarter of 2024, driven primarily by new openings and a 6.0% increase in comparable restaurant sales.
• Increase in net profitNet income increased significantly to USD 1.20 billion for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, compared to USD 946.7 million for the same period in 2023.
• Expansion strategy: The company opened 86 new restaurants, including 73 with Chipotlanes, significantly improving access and convenience for guests.
• Contribution of digital sales: Digital sales accounted for 34.0% of total food and beverage sales, demonstrating strong growth in the digital segment
• Improved operating margin: The operating margin increased to 16.9% compared to 16.0% in the previous year, indicating higher operating efficiency.

Negative statements

• Increased food costs: Food, beverage and packaging costs increased to 30.6% of total sales compared to 29.7% in Q3 2023 due to commodity price inflation.
• Slight decrease in restaurant operating marginOperating margin at restaurant level decreased slightly to 25.5% compared to 26.3%, indicating pressure on profitability at restaurant level.
• Higher non-current liabilitiesTotal liabilities increased to USD 5.40 billion, mainly due to long-term lease liabilities, which could limit future financial flexibility.
• Commodity cost inflation riskThe report highlights ongoing risks from rising commodity costs, particularly for avocados and dairy products, which could continue to put pressure on margins.

Earnings next week 🚀

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Interim conclusion: my YTD performance in 2024

The third quarter of 2024 ended just over a week ago and the fourth and final quarter of the year has begun. Time to draw an interim conclusion on the performance of my portfolio. The aim of my portfolio is - as every year - to beat the MSCI World benchmark. However, I am also aware that it will not work every year and that the overall performance should rather be compared over a period of 3-5 years. Nevertheless, it is a way for me to analyze how my portfolio is performing compared to the benchmark.

The MSCI World, measured in euros on the ETF $IWDA (+0,23 %)has so far had a YTD performance of +19.24% so far. My portfolio is at +13.27%. So far this year I have underperformed the MSCI World underperformed.

The overall picture since June 2017 looks better:

With a TTWROR performance of +177.47%, I am well ahead of the MSCI World with +121.17%. That is an average outperformance of +3.68% per year since June 2017.

An important note at this point: I do not adapt my strategy to current circumstances, but invest in high-quality companies - regardless of whether AI stocks are performing or whether oil stocks are the hot shit on the market. In this respect, phases of underperformance are normal and predictable.

UNDERPERFORMER

Time to take a look at the YTD underperformers.

Dino Polska $DNP (-2,38 %)
-14.5%

As I have only been invested here since March 2024, I have chosen the total return since purchase as performance. I expect a significantly better performance here in the long term. The position will be held and not increased or sold.

ASML $ASML (-1,59 %)
-6.6%

Also a fairly new position. In July 2024 I started to build up a larger position in several tranches. I expect a significantly better performance here in the longer term.

Alphabet $GOOGL (+0,94 %)
+3.8%

This is also a position that I only built up in August 2024. The plan is to continue to build up the position at this valuation level using a savings plan.

OUTPERFORMER

If you have a number of underperformers in your portfolio, there should ideally also be a few outperformers. My top 3 YTD outperformers are:

KLA Corp $KLAC (+0,46 %)
+38.3%

I established this position in April 2023 at a price of €336.80 per share. I have not bought or sold since then.

Costco $COST (-1,09 %)
+35.43%

I have been a shareholder in this outstanding company since September 2022. Since then, the position has been increased several times through acquisitions - most recently in May 2023 at a price of €455.45 per share.

Philip Morris $PM (+0,48 %)
+27.9%

This year has so far been a very good year for the "Big Tobacco" stocks. So I am not only pleased about the performance of $PM (+0,48 %) but also about $BATS (-0,24 %)which I also have in my portfolio. I invest continuously in both via a savings plan and enjoy regular dividends.

CONCLUSION

My top 3 underperformers are all stocks that I only bought this year and will hopefully perform better over time. The top 3 outperformers are all stocks that I have had in my portfolio for a long time and have performed very well overall since then. One "honorable mention" is also deserved $CMG (-0,82 %)which, with a YTD performance of +25.9%, just failed to make it into the top 3.

How are things looking for you this year?

Stay tuned,

Yours Nico Uhlig

⚠️⚠️⚠️Breaking News⚠️⚠️⚠️

ATTENTION to all who have a deposit with Trade Republic, today more than 100 savings plans will be executed with me, the real offensive starts at 15.30 and can take up to 4 hours, as there may well be "massive" "failures" and "delays" during this time, I ask you to keep calm, take a deep breath and not to bombard Trade Republic customer support with inquiries. Thank you very much 😁

As far as the Ultimate Homer "ETF" is concerned, many new stocks were added in September 😁

In since September 2

🇺🇸Chipotle $CMG (-0,82 %)

🇺🇸Costco $COST (-1,09 %)

🇺🇸Domino's Pizza's $DPZ (-0,94 %)

🇺🇸Texas Roadhouse $TXRH (-1,52 %)

🇺🇸TransDigm $TDG (+0,66 %)

Newly launched today

🇺🇸Booz Allen Hamilton Holding
$BAH (+1,99 %)

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