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Visa $V (-2,81 %)

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The bear is dancing! 🐻 - 5 Bearish Scenarios for Western Oil Stocks.

The oil industry has been battling massive media headwinds in the public eye since as early as the 1980s. Nevertheless, the saying proves true: "Those who are believed dead live longer!" proves true again and again.

In the following, I have listed some points that could indeed trigger bearish scenarios in the Western oil and gas sector. The probabilities for it are quite given, although these are now realistic, I am not able to judge with the contribution.

1. decoupling of the world markets

Many of you must have heard about it in the news. China is currently mediating in the dispute between the oil powers Saudi Arabia and Iran. It is said to amount to reconciliation and a new alliance is to be forged.

Oil trade, explicitly between Saudi Arabia and China, is then to be traded via the yuan (the Chinese currency).

What does this mean? Currencies have no material value. They are printed numbers with a sometimes fancy design intended to facilitate trade in a country or currency union. Behind this piece of paper, however, is always the respective person's imagination of the economic power of the respective nation. Almost all international trade is in U.S. dollars.

Saudi Arabia owns about 13% of the world's oil reserves (according to OPEC statistics). Not for nothing is Saudi Aramco $2222 has at times been the most valuable company in the world. China, on the other hand, is one of the largest buyers of oil. If one now transacts this trade in yuan, one suffers a relatively high loss of value in the dollar. The prices of WTI or Brent, which are tradable for us, would inevitably lose value as well, as demand collapses accordingly. (Long-term view)

In addition, we should continue to monitor China's activities with regard to Iran. After all, Iran also has huge oil reserves that cannot participate in the market at the moment due to the nuclear dispute and the resulting embargo.

2. persistently high prices

Persistently high prices could also spell doom for our oil industry. At present, it is true that money is being made strongly and shareholders can enjoy dizzying records. Nevertheless, the search for alternatives is becoming more attractive. The high demand from the industry may topple as soon as the high prices cannot be passed on to the end consumer, as this would again lead to demand deficits and increased supply. This leads to production cuts and ultimately to demand problems for oil.

The search for alternatives becomes more attractive, as high oil prices make one attractive to the overall market. This does not necessarily spur renewable energy sources. Relatively low coal and gas prices also lead to a reorientation on the energy markets. This can be read particularly clearly from the prices of the respective commodities from 2022. With the difference that the scenario was true for gas.

3. political environment

The following scenario is itself very unlikely, since the lobby in the EU can enjoy quite a lot of influence. Nevertheless, one is quite capable of surprises.

Suppose political environment in a large economic area changes rapidly. This can mean various legalities.

As an example, I take the decoupling of alternatives from oil and gas products. Biofuels could be fully more competitive, or a tax break, as in the 2000s could be a consequence. As a result, demand for oil fell just as sharply, and the federal government consequently rescinded the tax break and passed the Fuel Quota Act to compensate.

4. speculative bubbles in emissions trading

Many may not be familiar with it. In the EU, emitters are obliged to compensate for their emissions. In this case, the responsible companies have to buy certificates for this purpose. However, every emitter participates in this market. Accordingly, it can lead to speculation bubbles forming here as well. The corporations pass these costs on to the consumer. Accordingly, the respective economic good naturally becomes more expensive.

However, this emissions trading system is not limited to the EU. China and other countries also have such trading systems, although the prices there are rather symbolic in comparison.

In addition, there are of course national emissions trading systems, such as the one we have in Germany with the so-called CO2 pricing.

5. overthrow in own rebuilding

The petroleum companies on the European continent in particular are almost outdoing each other with their sustainability goals.

While Total $TTE (-4,73 %) has nevertheless been able to solidly claim the gas market in the LNG sector for itself, Shell hardly plays a significant role in it. $SHEL (-5,41 %) hardly plays a significant role in it. Overall, in the liquefied natural gas market, US brands such as. $LNG (-7,26 %) , $CVX (-4,76 %) and $COP (-5,72 %) have established themselves.

Please note that this is the fossil market. In the renewables sector, Shell, in turn, already plays a quite considerable role.

BP $BP. (-7,49 %) on the other hand, is rather cautious and timid in this respect. Rightly so?

Of course, this cannot be said across the board, since no one can reliably predict the future, especially the general conditions for the future. Nevertheless, the restructuring of the petroleum companies costs an enormous amount of capital and destroys their original business model. It is therefore necessary to venture into new and uncertain sectors, into markets that are already dominated by other well-known companies. The risk of losing market share both in the oil industry and in the so-called "future industries" is therefore very high.

Good day,

I am 25 years old, a self-employed electrical engineer and have been dealing with shares for about 2 years. I know in this area average well, am absolutely no professional.

My goal is to build up a good long-term portfolio with individual shares.

I have 3 funds with my bank, which I can not mention here.

In an ETF I can not pay in the house bank monthly, therefore the funds. (Would have of course rather e.g. a Msci World or....)

And pay into an online broker I do not know, call me old-fashioned but that is too uncertain for me, I do not know much about it and am afraid that there is the online broker suddenly no longer and everything is gone.

My shares I bought earlier was mostly a mistake have bought too quickly or erwas read and that sounded so good have bought in greed. This should not continue now.

Well now to my shares, strategy I follow actually no right, have also too little time me daily several hours to read through. Often I look what do people buy, what do they use every day, from which brand is the....usw. In this respect, I read magazines or online and if I like a share, it first comes to the watch list, there it is not bought for 1-3 months because I do not want to be blinded. Each magazine, online article or video writes a company so special and future-proof that it affects my opinion, and therefore I wait a certain time until I deal with the companies.

In this respect I use most tradingview, aktienfinder pro and finanzen,net and a few others but not so often.

With the shares I have looked at the annual return of the past years, on the fair value, profit flow, profit of the next years and on other figures where I know less well. (This is just my opinion, I am absolutely not a professional, please correct me if I am wrong)

The shares are all long-term investments and I plan to hold them for several years,

$RACE (-0,26 %) is an Italian company and therefore I would pay less tax on the sale at some point as an Italian citizen, but that should not be a reason, the last few years have gone very well and I also believe the luxury companies in this period can pass on the price increase well to their customers (SIMILAR TO $LVMH)

Unfortunately, I do not know how it looks with the E-cars if in the distant future only such are sold. How hard Ferrari is doing.

$MDLZ (+0,65 %) I have looked at the 10 largest food companies and for me mdlz is the share that has the most potential to the upside, whether it is fair value or profit flow is still a lot up in it

$MCD (-1,29 %) a rather low-risk company, I believe that mc donalds will still exist in 20 years, and when I look at the competition I see mcd far in front

$LIN I think is also a low risk company and with their business model I see in the next few years certainly a higher price

$NOVO B A pharmaceutical company never hurts. With a profit of 32% over sales and the latest drug that makes you slim you are way ahead of the competition. They are slightly overbought, but they always feel that way.

$LNG (-7,26 %) and $EQNR (-4,66 %) is rather risky, here I am talking about the LNG that will go to Europe in the future and the two companies are already working profitably, if you assume the next few years that they will go a lot to Europe then I think the company will rise.

$AZO (+0,72 %) have dealt rather less with it, are a US Autoreperatur company with service and sales.

I do not know why but the company works well no negative numbers. Profit of the next few years should also be very good.

$V (-2,81 %) I liked to have a payment service company where little risk is and according to figures Visa is from me seen better positioned than Mastercard.

$SIE (-5,4 %) I wanted to buy actually only that I have not everything in Us company, I am currently but not quite convinced.

$PETR3 (-7,83 %) Since I am a small gambler I would like to invest a small part here. It simply attracts with the high dividend and if the oil business is still profitable for a while it could be worthwhile.

In addition, half of the company belongs to the state of Brazil.

Yes that's it, I am not a stock expert, I hope for an honest opinion.

Thanks to @DividendenWaschbaer

Good day to you,

I do not know if anyone can read this, but I would appreciate an honest opinion.

Per company I would invest 1000-2000

$LIN

$RACE (-0,26 %)

$V (-2,81 %)

$MCD (-1,29 %)

$MDLZ (+0,65 %)

$LNG (-7,26 %) or $EQNR (-4,66 %)

$SIE (-5,4 %)

$AZO (+0,72 %)

$ENEL (-3,52 %)

I have a long watchlist that I have been keeping for a long time and I have picked out the best ones in my opinion.

I would be happy for an opinion

Is it still worth getting in?