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89SHOULD I INVEST IN BOOKING HOLDING ($BKNG (-2,13 %) ) AND WAIT UNTIL CHRISTMAS? GOOD STRATEGY OR NOT?
US companies plan share buybacks on a historic scalewhich is a sign of the American economy's confidence in the economy. Nvidia Corp is the latest company to join the long list of buyback plans.
The announced buybacks exceeded the 1 trillion US dollars reaching this level in a very short time, according to data from Birinyi Associates. The previous record was set in October last year.
In recent months, corporate giants - particularly in the areas of finance and technology - have given the green light for extensive share buyback programs.
Source: https://www.moneyweb.co.za/news/markets/us-firms-racing-through-1trn-buyback-spree-in-record-time/
I am looking to sharpen my knife and trim my portfolio down to only 15 stocks. Which stocks would you suggest I cut/sell and which ones would you put more emphasis on? Let me know in the comments!
Over the years, I’ve sharpened my strategy down to a focused portfolio built on true compounders. Here’s what guides my stock picking:
here’s my current holdings:
The biggest growth drivers are additional services alongside hotel bookings.
The number of transactions in the "Connected Trip" segment increased by 30% year-on-year in the second quarter and now accounts for more than a tenth of the Group's business.
Booking.com defines Connected Trip as all additional services such as flights, rental cars, cabs and attractions. Flight bookings developed particularly strongly with growth of 44% and activities and attractions with growth of over 100%.
This contributed to a 16% increase in revenue and a 32% increase in profit in the second quarter.
Free cash flow climbed by 32 % to USD 3.1 billion per share.
At USD 55.40 per share, earnings were well above expectations of USD 50.60. With sales of USD 6.80 billion, the company also exceeded analysts' estimates of USD 6.52 billion.
Massive share buybacks
Booking has used the current income to buy back its own shares for USD 1.3 billion Aktienwhich corresponds to around 0.77 % of the market capitalization. At first glance, that doesn't sound like much. But if this happens every quarter, the impact over time is considerable.
In the last ten years, the number of outstanding shares has been reduced from 51 million to 33 million, which has significantly increased earnings per share.
This is likely to continue in a similar way. Under the current buyback program, a further USD 24.6 billion is available for share buybacks. This would currently be enough to cancel 4.4 million shares.
In addition, since last year the company has been paying a Dividende.
Would you like a little more?
The consensus estimates for the current financial year are for a jump in earnings of 18% to USD 221 per share.
Booking therefore has a forward P/E of 25.3, which is easily justifiable in view of the high growth rates and the characteristics of the business model. Over the long term, the P/E has hovered around 25.6.
However, as earnings rose by 22% in the first quarter and 32% in the second quarter, it is likely that the estimates are too low. This is also supported by the Management Board's statements that momentum has picked up again since the end of May.
If Booking exceeds expectations again in the next two quarters, this will result in corresponding upside potential.
Booking share: Chart from 30.07.2025, price: USD 5,590 - symbol: BKNG | Source: TWS
The risk/reward ratio would be even better in the event of a correction. Although there is no tangible reason for prices to fall, if the market as a whole comes under pressure, Booking is very likely to come back. Possible starting points for a correction are USD 5,260 - 5,333 and USD 4,650.
At the relevant lows since 2020, the P/E was between 19 and 22, which would currently correspond to a price of USD 4,199 - 4,862.
However, if the share breaks out above USD 5,750, a procyclical uptrend will occur. Kaufsignal with extrapolated price targets of USD 6,000 and USD 6,250.
🔹 Revenue: $6.80B (Est. $6.55B) 🟢; +16% YoY
🔹 Adj EPS: $55.40 (Est. $50.38) 🟢; +32% YoY
🔹 Adj EBITDA: $2.42B (Est. $2.21B) 🟢; +28% YoY
🔹 Gross Bookings: $46.7B (Est. $46.25B) 🟢; +13% YoY
🔹 Room Nights: 309M (Est. 304.55M) 🟢; UP +8% YoY
🔹 Free Cash Flow: $3.14B; UP +32% YoY
🔹 Operating Cash Flow: $3.20B; UP +27% YoY
Q3 Guidance
🔹 Room Nights Growth: 3.5%–5.5%
🔹 Gross Bookings Growth: 8%–10%
🔹 Revenue Growth: 7%–9%
🔹 Adjusted EBITDA: $3.9B–$4.0B
FY25 Guidance
🔹 Gross Bookings Growth: Low double digits 😕
🔹 Revenue Growth: Low double digits
🔹 Adj. EBITDA Growth: Mid-teens %
Q2 Segment:
🔹 Alternative Accommodation Room Nights: UP low double-digit % YoY
🔹 Airline Tickets: UP +44% YoY
🔹 Constant Currency ADRs: DOWN -1% YoY
Margins & Cost Metrics
🔹 Net Income Margin: 13.2% (vs 26.0% in Q2'24)
🔹 Adjusted EBITDA Margin: 35.6% (vs 32.4% in Q2'24)
🔹 Marketing Expense as % of Gross Bookings: 4.6% (vs 4.7% in Q2'24)
🔹 Adjusted Fixed Operating Expenses: UP +11% YoY
Shareholder Returns
🔹 Dividend: $9.60/share payable Sept 30, 2025
🔹 Share Repurchase: $1.3B in Q2; $24.6B remaining authorization
CEO Commentary (Glenn Fogel)
🔸 “We’re pleased with strong room night growth and double-digit gains in bookings and revenue.”
🔸 “Connected Trip transactions now represent a low double-digit share of Booking total, up +30% YoY.”
🔸 “Flight ticket volume jumped +44% YoY — a key vertical fueling this momentum.”
🔸 “We remain focused on long-term growth drivers that create meaningful value for travelers and partners.”
Incredible performance from $BKNG (-2,13 %)
The purchase is from last year, for reference.
I love BKNG and believe that it is still fair value today.
still fair value today.
Looking forward to the first stock split.
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