Hello everyone,

Do you think it's possible to retire early with the portfolio?

At...80?

I would like to get out of many stocks as soon as I am in the black and reinvest.

The plan is to get out of:

$AMAT (+4,45 %)

$ANET (+2,74 %)

$DELL (+2,07 %)

$SOL (+2,07 %)

$BBAI (+26,76 %) I would like to reduce my position and possibly wait for a new entry.

What is your opinion, what can you recommend?

• I am looking forward to your opinions.

$AMAT (+4,45 %)

Applied Materials share: Chart from 06.06.2025, price: 164 USD - symbol: AMAT | Source: TWS

Outlook and valuation

Over the past five years, sales have increased massively from USD 17.2 bn to USD 27.2 bn.

At the same time, the number of outstanding Aktien shares outstanding has been sharply reduced from 916 to 827 million and earnings have climbed from USD 4.17 to USD 8.65 per share.

There has not been a single year in which sales and profits have not increased, yet the share price has repeatedly plummeted. The market appears to be overestimating Applied Materials' vulnerability to the economic cycle and underestimating the moat.

In the second quarter, earnings of USD 2.39 per share exceeded expectations of USD 2.30. With sales of USD 7.10 billion, the company met analysts' estimates.

For the year as a whole, this corresponds to a 7% increase in sales and a 14% jump in profits.

Surprisingly, this was achieved despite the fact that business in China collapsed due to trade restrictions. Over the year as a whole, turnover fell from USD 2.83 billion to USD 1.77 billion and the share of total business fell from 43% to 25%.

Insider strikes

According to consensus estimates, earnings are expected to rise by 10% to USD 9.51 per share in the current financial year.

Applied Materials thus has a forward P/E of 17.3, which is roughly in line with the average valuation of the last five years.

Since earnings rose by 12% in the first quarter and by 14% in the second quarter, it is reasonable to assume that the consensus estimates are too low.

In any case, CEO Dickerson seems to have come to the conclusion that this is an opportunity and bought USD 6.87 million worth of shares at a price of USD 137.30 on April 3.

Dickerson currently holds 1.7 million shares and seems to have a knack for timing. He has sold shares near the high in both 2024 and 2022.

If a sustained return above USD 159 is achieved, a procyclical Kaufsignal with a possible Kursziel at USD 175. Above this, the path towards USD 193 and USD 200 would be clear.

However, if the share falls below USD 159, further losses to USD 154 and USD 142 must be expected.

Trench assessment and full article at the link:

https://www.lynxbroker.de/boerse/boerse-kurse/aktien/applied-materials-aktie/applied-materials-analyse/?a=3355991664&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=newsletter-boersenblick&newsletter=true&mc-rss-cache-bypass=2025061007&goal=0_d93daae099-9ae6174596-410756260#applied-materials-technologiefestung-statt-zykliker

Hello dear community,

I am currently considering whether I should invest in the above-mentioned company.

$6861 (+2,74 %) =Keyence

What do you think of the company? Please give me your feedback, Flo 😊 .

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Description of the company:

Keyence is a Japanese manufacturer of high-tech components for industrial automation. The company develops and distributes:

Sensors (e.g. photoelectric sensors, proximity switches)

Image processing systems (industrial cameras, machine vision)

Measuring and testing technology (3D laser scanners, micrometers, profile projectors)

Laser marking devices

Safety and control technology (safety light curtains, PLC)

Keyence sells its products directly to companies, without intermediaries, and is known for fast delivery, on-site technical advice and extreme product quality.

It supplies, for example, the automotive, semiconductor, electronics, pharmaceutical and food industries worldwide.

--------------------------

Pro:

- Turnover/net profit: Increasing

- Margin: High

- Debt: Low

- Researches and develops actively / continuously and stays on the ball

- Represented in over 100 countries

- Turnover in Japan is 36% (in own country)

Contra:

- Yen

- P/E ratio high due to high expectations

--------------------------

Competition (examples):

Cognex Corp = $CGNX (+3,18 %)

Rockwell Automation = $ROK (+0,41 %)

Omron Corp = $6645 (+0,89 %)

Fanus Corp. = $6954 (+0,95 %)

Applied Materials = $AMAT (+4,45 %)

$AMAT (+4,45 %)

Applied Materials share: Chart from 16.05.2025, price: USD 163.93 - symbol: AMAT | Source: TWS

From a technical perspective, the price reaction to the figures to date is of secondary importance. However, if the share price falls below USD 159, there will be a Verkaufssignal with possible price targets at USD 153 and 142

Expectations exceeded, share price falls

The company is strongly positioned in technological disruptions such as gate-all-around, backside power delivery, 3D DRAM, advanced packaging and silicon photonics, which creates long-term growth opportunities. The new SIM³ Magnum Etch platform has generated over USD 1.2 billion in sales since its market launch in February 2024. The e-beam technology for process control recorded record revenue.

For the third quarter, sales of USD 6.7 - 7.7 billion and earnings of USD 2.15 - 2.55 per share are expected. Applied Materials usually delivers results at the upper end of its own forecasts.

Consensus estimates to date have been for sales of USD 7.20 billion and earnings of USD 2.32 per share.

In the current financial year, earnings are expected to rise by 9% to USD 9.44 per share. After achieving growth of 12% and 14% in the first two quarters, this is plausible to conservative.

Applied Materials is trading pre-market at USD 163.93 and thus has a forward P/E of 17.4

https://www.lynxbroker.de/boerse/boerse-kurse/aktien/applied-materials-aktie/applied-materials-analyse/?a=3355991664&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=newsletter-boersenblick&newsletter=true&mc-rss-cache-bypass=2025051906&goal=0_d93daae099-3185b4eb18-410756260#applied-materials-neue-produkte-neue-rekorde-aktie-fallt

Tops

Still at the top 🥇Sprouts Farmers$SFM (-4,11 %) which are stable 📈 followed by 🥈Netflix $NFLX (+1,79 %) which has fought its way up to second place despite all the market turbulence.

Walmart $WMT (+0,01 %) who have always been in the top 3 since I started covering the position.

Unlike the country 🇩🇪 where it feels 📉. Things are looking surprisingly good on the stock market for 🇩🇪 shares $DB1 (-0,59 %) & $MUV2 (+0,64 %) in the top 10 💪😊

Surprisingly, there is no sign of Magnificent 7 far and wide 😂 although $TSLA (-2,27 %) is no longer represented in the "ETF".

Flops

Although Adobe$ADBE (+0,42 %) actually has good figures, the position has not really gotten off the ground since I started holding it, worse still, so far it has brought me the most losses, although it does not pay a dividend 😂

Of course the savings plans are still running this month, but not all positions.

The winners are still running, some of the losers have been paused for the time being and only the flops are still running. $QCOM (+0,98 %)
$AMAT (+4,45 %) continue.

Alphabet $GOOGL (+1,09 %)

Infosys $INFY

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing $TSM (+4,29 %)

ASML $ASML (+3,66 %)

Microsoft $MSFT (+0,68 %)

Applied Materials $AMAT (+4,45 %) (rather speculative)

In fact, the technology sector has been the most difficult for me so far, probably also because it is a very dynamic and rapidly developing sector.

I would therefore be interested: Which companies do you see as particularly promising for a long-term investment?

To the computer scientists and tech insiders among you: Do companies like Microsoft, SAP or Adobe now tend to be established players that may have lost their innovative strength or do you still see them as being well positioned for the future?

Donald Trump wants to overturn US Chips Act + Lufthansa profits slump + DHL expects little earnings growth in 2025 + Merck aims for further profitable growth in 2024 after uprising + Kontron share price jumps to record high after order

Donald Trump wants to overturn US Chips Act

• Should the US government actually stop payments or cut commitments, this would affect many US companies: Although reporting is dominated by Intel $INTC (+6,07 %), Micron $MU (+4,81 %), Samsung $005930and TSMC $2330, which will receive up to 8.49 billion US dollars. But also Texas Instruments $TXN (+2,3 %), Applied Materials $AMAT (+4,45 %)and the University of Arizona will also receive money.
• In addition, a number of small companies are to receive between 200,000 and 300,000 US dollars. All projects can be found in a list maintained by Nist. In the case of Intel, the loss of subsidy commitments could exacerbate the current crisis.

Lufthansa $LHA (+4,53 %)Profit collapses

• Strikes, higher costs and lower ticket prices caused Lufthansa's profits to plummet last year.
• The core brand Lufthansa Airlines was even in the red in its day-to-day business, as the MDax-listed company announced in Frankfurt on Thursday.
• Group-wide operating profit before special items therefore slumped by over one billion to around 1.65 billion euros.
• For the current year, CEO Carsten Spohr is aiming for a "significant" improvement.
• The already announced restructuring program should contribute to this.
• Last year, Group airlines such as Lufthansa, Swiss, Austrian and Eurowings carried 131 million passengers, seven percent more than in the previous year.
• Turnover increased by six percent to 37.6 billion euros.
• Unlike the passenger division, the cargo subsidiary Lufthansa Cargo and the maintenance division Lufthansa Technik were also able to increase their operating profit.
• The bottom line was a Group-wide surplus of just under 1.4 billion euros, 18 percent less than in the previous year.
• Nevertheless, shareholders are to receive an unchanged dividend of 30 cents per share.

DHL $DHL (-2,34 %)expects only little earnings growth in 2025

• The logistics group DHL is implementing a cost-cutting program to combat sluggish global trade and the uncertain geopolitical situation.
• This is accompanied by the reduction of 8,000 jobs in the German mail and parcel business, as the company announced in Bonn on Thursday.
• CEO Tobias Meyer sees "both shadow and light" for the Group in the US customs policy.
• Meanwhile, the Bonn-based DAX-listed company expects only a sluggish improvement in earnings in 2025, after 2024 performed somewhat better than analysts had feared.
• "We continue to expect an operating result (EBIT) of over 7 billion euros in the medium term," Group CEO Tobias Meyer told the financial news agency dpa-AFX.
• He had previously targeted earnings before interest and taxes of more than EUR 7 billion for 2026.
• Similar to Brexit, the number of shipments is expected to decline on the one hand, while on the other hand DHL is likely to gain in added value, for example because more shipments will have to be cleared through customs.
• On this basis, earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) are expected to increase slightly to at least EUR 6 billion in 2025.
• However, analysts surveyed by the company had estimated a median of 6.3 billion euros.
• At the same time, free cash flow is expected to remain stable at EUR 3.0 billion and thus be slightly better than expected, as in 2024.
• In 2024, the DAX-listed company earned EUR 5.9 billion in day-to-day business, a good 7 percent less than in the previous year.
• However, the operating result did not fall quite as sharply as analysts had feared.
• At 3.0 billion euros, the free cash flow was also better than experts had expected.
• DHL therefore met the targets it had set itself.
• At EUR 3.3 billion, the bottom line for shareholders in 2024 was a good 9 percent less profit than in 2023.
• The Board of Management intends to propose a stable dividend of EUR 1.85 per share at the Annual General Meeting.
• The share buyback program is to be increased by EUR 2 billion to EUR 6 billion and extended until 2026.

Merck $MRK (+0 %)aims to continue to grow profitably after the upswing in 2024

• After a weak previous year, day-to-day business at the pharmaceutical and technology group Merck KGaA has picked up again in 2024.
• The final quarter was above average.
• CEO Belen Garijo now wants to build on the upswing in the current year.
• "Merck is back on course for growth with all three businesses," said the manager in a statement on Thursday.
• "In 2025, we will once again grow profitably across the entire company."
• Shareholders are to receive a stable dividend of 2.20 euros for the past year.
• According to the statement, Merck is targeting sales of EUR 21.5 to 22.9 billion in the current year, which corresponds to organic growth of three to six percent.
• Adjusted for special effects, earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (adjusted EBITDA) are expected to increase organically by three to eight percent to EUR 6.1 to 6.6 billion.
• Last year, Group revenue climbed by 0.8 percent year-on-year to EUR 21.16 billion, supported by good business with medicines and semiconductor materials for artificial intelligence (AI).
• Since the second half of the year, there have also been signs of an upturn in the laboratory division, after the division had suffered from weak demand for a long time following the coronavirus boom.
• The Group also kept its costs in check.
• Adjusted for special effects, earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (adjusted EBITDA) increased by 3.3% to almost EUR 6.1 billion.
• Merck's sales and operating result were thus in line with its own targets and also more or less in line with analysts' expectations.
• Due to higher taxes, however, the Darmstadt-based company earned just under EUR 2.79 billion, around two percent less than in the previous year.

Kontron $KTN (+1,33 %)share price jumps to record high after order

• Following an order, Kontron shares reached a record high of EUR 23.34 on Wednesday.
• Most recently, the share price rose by 12.9 percent to EUR 23.18 and was one of the top positions in the small cap index SDax.
• The Austrian technology group announced a further order from the automotive industry worth 40 million euros.
• This involves the delivery of highly developed sensor technologies.
• This should at least benefit the perception of the share, commented a trader.
• On February 20, Kontron had announced an order with a total volume of 250 million US dollars over several years from a "leading supplier to the automotive industry".

Thursday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

• ex-dividend of individual stocks
• Qualcomm USD 0.85
• BHP Group AUD 0.80

• Quarterly figures / company dates USA / Asia
• 22:00 Broadcom quarterly figures
• 22:05 Hewlett Packard Enterprise quarterly figures
• No time specified: Costco Wholesale | Universal Music Quarterly figures

• Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe
• 07:00 Lufthansa | DHL Group | Merck KGaA | Siltronic | Ströer | Zalando | Aareal Annual results
• 07:30 Compugroup Medical | Prosiebensat1 | Dürr | GFT Technologies | Air France-KLM | Bouygues Annual results
• 08:00 Deutsche Beteiligungs AG | Reckitt Benckise Annual Results
• 09:00 DHL Group Analyst Conference | Aareal Bank | Zalando BI-PK | Ströer Analyst and Press Conference
• 09:30 Lufthansa BI-PK
• 10:00 Merck KGaA PK | Siltronic Analyst Conference | Dürr BI-PK
• 10:45 Zalando Analyst Conference
• 11:00 DHL Group BI-PK
• 11:30 Prosiebensat1 BI-PK
• 12:30 Lufthansa Analyst Conference
• 14:00 Merck KGaA Analyst Conference | Dürr Analyst Conference
• 18:00 Vivendi Annual Results
• No time specified: Andritz | Solvay Annual figures

• Economic data

08:00 DE: Services turnover December

11:00 EU: Retail Sales January Eurozone FORECAST: +0.1% yoy previous: -0.2% yoy

12:00 TR: Turkish Central Bank, outcome of the Monetary Policy Council meeting Key interest rate FORECAST: n/a previously: 45.00%

14:15 EU: ECB, outcome of the Governing Council meeting and staff projection for growth and inflation in the eurozone Deposit rate FORECAST: 2.50% previously: 2.75%

14:30 US: Initial jobless claims (week) FORECAST: 235,000 previously: 242,000

14:30 US: Trade Balance January FORECAST: -128.7 bn USD previously: -98.4 bn USD

14:30 US: Productivity ex Agriculture (2nd release) 4Q annualized PROGNOSE: +1.2% yoy 1st release: +1.2% yoy 3rd quarter: +2.3% yoy Unit labor costs PROGNOSE: +3.0% yoy Preliminary: 1st release: +3.0% yoy Previously: 3rd quarter: +0.5% yoy

Just bought at a price of just under € 140/share.

$AMAT (+4,45 %) is essential for semiconductor production and has been massively punished in recent weeks. After being priced at €220/share a good six months ago, I'm now happy to take the 40% discount.

Facts:

• Forward P/E ratio currently at 18.5 and forward EV/EBIT even only at 13.5
• Net debt free
• Dividend growth at just under 15% CAGR in the last 10 years
• Current dividend yield at 1.1%

I will continue to buy here if the value falls.