(This is not investment advice!)

$AAPL (+0,23 %)
$MSFT (+1,43 %)
$NVDA (-0,08 %)
$AMZN (+3,46 %)
$GOOGL (+0,76 %)
$META (+1,8 %)
$TSM (-0,54 %)
$GEV (-2,09 %)

As we do every week, here are the top news stories from the past week:

Monday:

Anthropic takes the next step toward an IPO and files its prospectus. The world’s largest initial public offering could thus take place in November. In the first half of the year, the company increased its revenue sixteenfold, from $1.2 billion in the first half of 2025 to $16.3 billion. However, it also posted a loss of $80.75 billion.

https://www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/2026-10/anthropic-boersengang-nasdaq-ki-unternehmen-aktien

Tuesday:

$MBG (+1,83 %) Mercedes-Benz lowers its forecasts. The profit margin is expected to plummet to 2–3%. Severance agreements are also weighing on earnings. Analysts are not surprised by the new estimates.

https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/mercedes-benz-senkt-gewinnprognose-a-cb5ec453-eb34-4d98-99f0-133eef067c15

Thursday:

At $GOOGL (+0,76 %) Alphabet, expectations had risen so sharply that the company fell short of them. Alphabet’s profit fell significantly, while analysts had expected an increase. Revenue, however, rose by 25%. Fluctuations in the value of investments—such as those in SpaceX—also contributed to the profit trend.

https://www.finanzen.net/nachricht/aktien/zahlen-praesentiert-alphabet-aktie-rutscht-kraeftig-ab-google-mutter-kann-hohen-erwartungen-nicht-standhalten-16010454

Friday:

After $VOW (+2,08 %) VW had already reported a loss, Audi today reported a plunge in profits to 95 million euros. Revenue plummeted by more than 10% to 42 billion euros in the first nine months.

https://m.bild.de/politik/autokrise-krasser-gewinneinbruch-bei-audi-6ae44ed8981b80c0b7986840

The German economy is growing surprisingly strongly. GDP rose by 0.2% compared to the previous quarter. Private consumption, in particular, increased. If the water levels of the Rhine had been higher, growth could likely have been even greater.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/konjunktur/konjunktur-deutsche-wirtschaft-waechst-staerker-als-erwartet/100266091.html

Hackers—presumably from North Korea—have apparently carried out the largest crypto heist ever. At the exchange $BUSD (-0,52 %) Binance, assets worth 6.3 billion USD were stolen. In response, Bitcoin plummeted by 3%. Binance intends to cover 100% of the losses.

https://www.bild.de/politik/ausland-und-internationales/sechs-milliarden-dollar-in-20-minuten-weg-fette-beute-fuer-nordkorea-kim-nach-krypto-raub-6ae4664607389cfdaeb52ba5

$BAYN (+2,74 %) Bayer has once again prevailed in court in a glyphosate case. The stock has risen significantly, as the ruling underscores the importance of the Supreme Court’s decision that plaintiffs can no longer rely on the absence of cancer warnings on packaging.

https://rp-online.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/bayer-aktie-hebt-ab-das-ist-einer-der-wichtigsten-prozessgewinne_aid-157517021

And you've NEVER been able to buy at such a low P/E ratio… NEVER!

I received something quite interesting from a colleague today.

The exact source remains confidential for security reasons, and I’m only sharing a redacted version:

I’d like to show you the stock recommendation list from one of Switzerland’s largest universal banks and hear your thoughts on it:

THIS DOES NOT CONSTITUTE INVESTMENT ADVICE AND IS FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.

International growth stocks:

Technology (Top 3 – BUY):

$GOOGL (+0,76 %): BUY – Price target at 584.55 USD – Revenue growth 15.2%, net profit margin 32.8%

$MSFT (+1,43 %): BUY – Price target of 810 USD – Revenue growth 14.93%, net profit margin 36.15%

$NVDA (-0,08 %): BUY - Price target of 542 USD - Revenue growth 114.2%, net profit margin 55.85%

Consumer Staples (BUY):

$LISN (-0,16 %) Lindt & Sprüngli: BUY - Price target of 12,500 CHF - Revenue growth of 8.18%, net margin of 12.29%

Consumer Discretionary (BUY):

$AMZN (+3,46 %) Amazon: BUY - Price target at $405 - Revenue 12.38%, net margin 10.83%

$MELI (+0,56 %) Mercado Libre: BUY - Price target of 3,487 USD - Revenue 39%, net margin 6.9%

Also a BUY: $MC (+1,81 %)
LVMH and $CFR (+2,45 %) Richemont

Note:

Please keep in mind that this is a snapshot. The rating could change from BUY to SELL by the next day without being updated in this post.

If you find this post interesting, I may share something similar again in the future.

I find all the stocks mentioned here very interesting and have already given them some thought myself.

Just for fun, I opened a test portfolio and bought each of the mentioned positions at the current price for about CHF 1,000. Depending on the situation, I’ll sell them when they reach the stated price targets.

Let’s see what happens...

Let’s get rich... or something like that...

Feel free to save this post for later!

$GOOGL (+0,76 %)
Weakness in Search and sharply rising AI spending overshadow the boom at Google Cloud

⠀

The bottom line: Wall Street is cutting price targets left and right, and Citizens has downgraded the stock. Investors are questioning whether the AI trend can be monetized quickly enough to offset weaker growth in traditional search and the massive rise in infrastructure costs.

⠀

Average price target: $399

Potential from the current price of ~$288: ~39%

⠀

Current analyst estimates:

• Pivotal Research: Buy, $475 (unchanged) (+65%)

• Mizuho: Outperform, $460 (unchanged) (+60%)

• Canaccord: Buy, $450 (unchanged) (+56%)

• Guggenheim: Buy, $450 (unchanged) (+56%)

• Evercore ISI: Outperform, $435 (down from $450) (+51%)

• Barclays: Overweight, $405 (down from $425) (+41%)

• Susquehanna: Positive, $400 from $460 (+39%)

• KeyBanc: Overweight, $385 from $410 (+34%)

• BofA: Buy, $380 from $430 (+32%)

• Morgan Stanley: Overweight, $375 from $400 (+30%)

• Raymond James: Strong Buy, $350 from $400 (+21%)

• Bernstein: Market Perform, $325 from $385 (+13%)

• DA Davidson: Neutral, $300 from $350 (+4%)

• Citizens: Downgraded to Market Perform

⠀

Why the stock is falling:

• Search growth slowed to around 12%, below expectations and significantly weaker than in Q2

• AI-powered search queries are growing strongly but are still monetized less effectively than traditional search queries

• YouTube ad revenue growth also slowed to about 9%

• Operating income missed expectations due to higher AI R&D and TPU costs

• Free cash flow fell to approximately minus $9 billion, while quarterly Capex reached $51.4 billion

• Management anticipates a further significant increase in investments for 2027

⠀

What analysts continue to view positively:

• Google Cloud revenue surged 103% year-over-year to $30.7 billion

• Cloud operating income more than tripled to approximately $11.1 billion

• Cloud margin reached a record high of 36.2%

• Backlog rose to $561 billion

• TPU system sales are emerging as a significant new revenue driver

• Search query growth reached its highest level in five years

⠀

The key debate: Google is winning in AI adoption, but monetization is lagging behind. Investors now want evidence that AI-powered search and agent-based search can achieve similar long-term profitability to traditional Google search.

⠀

The Bull Case: Google Cloud could be significantly undervalued by the market. Mizuho believes that TPU revenue and margins could contribute much more to profits than currently factored into the consensus, thereby offsetting some of the weakness in Search.

⠀

The Risk: Alphabet is entering the most capital-intensive phase of its history, while at the same time its most profitable core business is experiencing weaker growth. If monetizing AI search takes longer than expected, free cash flow and margins could remain under pressure well into 2027.

⠀

Conclusion: AI demand isn’t Alphabet’s problem. The problem is monetization. Cloud revenue is skyrocketing, TPU demand is growing, and search engagement is strong. However, investors want to see this momentum translate into profits quickly enough to justify the massive AI investment cycle.

Go to hell.

$GOOGL (+0,76 %)

$NOW (+0,77 %)

Sooooo… here you go—this is what the portfolio looks like right now. Core is the $GERD (+0,79 %) Plus $AINF (+1,38 %) and $RBOT (+1,21 %) and $IH2O (+0,96 %) .

$4GLD (+2,4 %) And $XEON (+0 %) are there to offset inflation and protect capital. $O (+0 %) , $MAIN (+0,33 %) and $LAND (+1,18 %) are the dividend-paying stocks that, as mentioned, cover vacations and the like.

The rest relates to banks, gas stations, AI storage, computing power, security, automation, rare earths, and healthcare.

We’re currently very confident, but we’re down just under 1.3% compared to the MSCI (excluding dividends); however, we believe things will turn around.

Tonight, we’re paying close attention to inflation data as well as quarterly earnings reports from $GOOGL (+0,76 %) as well as $MSFT (+1,43 %) .

I’m really looking forward to your comments, but I’m already used to quite a bit here after the last few days, so it’s all good.

Have a great Wednesday, and best regards ✌🏻.

What happens to an industry where demand is skyrocketing but which suddenly can’t get any more money?

This question has been on everyone’s mind since yesterday. Elon Musk wrote on X that the credit markets had AI data center operators. Just a few days earlier, the Nebius CEO himself had admitted that key sources of capital had temporarily dried up.

1. The Statements

• Elon Musk: In recent weeks, the credit markets have cut off all companies without significant revenue outside of AI data centers had almost completely cut off access to funding. $SPCX (-4,19 %) I’ve taken on $40 billion in debt for GPUs, but only thanks to investment-grade (= high creditworthiness according to rating agencies) and revenue from Starlink and rocket launches. He predicts a mass extinction and consolidation . He rules out the possibility of SpaceX acquiring any Neoclouds.
• Chamath Palihapitiya: Neoclouds are disorganized and poorly capitalized. By 2027, there will be a lot of partially unused computing capacity, and that year will weed out many bad investments.
• Arkady Volozh, CEO of $NBIS (-1,74 %): Asset-backed financing and debt markets have temporarily dried up. Nebius is working with customer prepayments and other instruments that should be sufficient to build at least the one gigawatt planned for this year.
• Gartner: As early as mid-October, the research firm predicted that by 2030, over 80% of neoclouds would no longer be independent.

Context: Musk is a direct competitor to traditional Neoclouds, as he rents out GPU capacity himself—SpaceX could benefit from negative headlines.

2. Why a lack of capital affects the valuation:

Neoclouds build and buy first, but the money doesn’t come back for years.

This results in a simple chain:

1. Growth requires capital.

2. Capital becomes expensive or is no longer provided at all: CoreWeave bonds $CRWV (-2,61 %) maturing in 2031 yielded at times nearly 16%. At this price, projects are barely profitable, so this funding channel is largely closed.

3. Valuations factor in high growth: The market has priced in years of capacity expansion.

4. This growth cannot be delivered without capital: What isn’t financed won’t be built. Lower growth → lower stock prices. On top of that, companies are raising capital by issuing new shares at low prices, which dilutes the holdings of existing shareholders dilutes and creates further downward pressure.

5. Valuations are coming under pressure: Growth expectations are falling, while at the same time the interest rate used to discount future earnings is rising.

4. How are different types of financing affected?

Closed channels:

• Unsecured high-yield bonds
• GPU loans without high-credit-quality customers
• Asset-backed financing for Neoclouds

Open, but tighter and more expensive:

• Secured loans with investment-grade borrowers: Nebius received on October 22 $3.5 billion from $C (+1,08 %), though with a term of only one year
• Stock sales that dilute shares more significantly when prices are low

Outstanding:

• Customer prepayments
• Bonds for hyperscalers and corporations with other sources of revenue

5. Why isn’t a booming business getting funding?

Investors aren’t short on money. $GOOGL (+0,76 %), $AMZN (+3,46 %), $META (+1,8 %) and $ORCL (-1,01 %) have invested over $228 billion in bonds.

The reason lies in the lender’s logic:

• No share in the boom: If GPU rental rates double, the shareholder benefits. The lender receives only the interest, but bears the loss in the event of a crisis.
• Uncertain collateral: Financiers estimate that a GPU’s value after three years will be 10 to 60 percent of the original price. This is a huge range when billions are invested in GPUs.
• Macro: Due to the Fed’s interest rate hike in September and an oil price above $100 caused by the war in Iran, new issuances in the high-yield market plummeted in October.

Has this ever happened before?

• Data Centers in 2001: Exodus Communications, then one of the largest data center operators, went bankrupt, and its facilities were sold off cheaply. Equinix $EQIX (+0,96 %) barely survived, $DLR (+0,99 %) and was later formed from acquired real estate. Data centers became a huge business—but only for the next owners.
• Fiber Optics 2000–2002: The demand for the Internet was real, but funding dried up. Global Crossing and WorldCom went bankrupt.
• Shale Gas 2015/16: The high-yield energy market dried up; many producers went bankrupt, and the most cost-effective ones took over the rest.
• Crypto Miners 2022: Core Scientific filed for bankruptcy and is now an AI rental provider itself.

The pattern is always the same: When the capital market closes for a capital-intensive industry, the balance sheet, not demand. In these examples, macro-driven freezes lasted weeks to months, while freezes affecting an entire industry lasted about one to three years.

6. Which Neoclouds are affected

The key factor is the business model:

• Landlords with tenants of high creditworthiness:
  $CIFR (-6,93 %) with Amazon as the direct tenant, $WULF (-1,35 %) backed by Google. In the case of $HUT (-4,11 %), $CLSK (-5,43 %) and $RIOT (-0,57 %) investment-grade credit protection is still pending. Banks are primarily reviewing the tenant in these cases, which is why financing continues. They benefit very little from the rise in GPU prices because their rents are locked in for 10–20 years.
• Landlords with a large CoreWeave stake: Galaxy $GLXY (-1,74 %) and Core Scientific, and to some extent also $APLD (-2,56 %), where a hyperscaler now accounts for the majority of tenants. Their risk hinges on the industry’s weak link.
• GPU clouds: $IREN (-3,25 %) , $NBIS (-1,74 %) , $CRWV (-2,61 %) , $USCTF (-0,8 %) and $BTDR (-2,34 %) . This is exactly the channel Musk is referring to. Nebius relies on contracts with $MSFT (+1,43 %) and Meta, while IREN relies on Microsoft; on top of that, there are substantial upfront payments: At Nebius, they cover about 50–60%, and at IREN, about 45% of the respective investments. CoreWeave, on the other hand, contributes about $50 billion in debt and lease obligations.
• Without a signed AI contract:
  $MARA (-1,33 %) and $KEEL (-0,56 %). They need customers and financing in the midst of the lockdown.

7. Conclusion

Overall, Musk’s statement is exaggerated, but essentially correct: For companies that only sell GPU rentals and don’t have customers with high credit ratings, the credit market is currently closed.

However, there’s a contradiction in this situation: What isn’t financed won’t be built, and that further reduces supply further, while Musk himself speaks of exploding demand .

Companies that can finance their capacity are likely to benefit from this.

Customers who urgently need computing power will become more aware of this problem, which could potentially increase prepayments for contracts. In addition, customers could use their own creditworthiness as collateral for their AI computing power providers or become lenders themselves.

In my view, therefore, one question above all else will determine the future of the industry:

Who can secure financing to sustain these growth rates?

The quarterly results in November will provide answers; particular attention should be paid to the financing structure and prepayments.

Sources:

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2114434646914068862

https://x.com/chamath/status/2114389987563381004

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-25/musk-says-spacex-closed-40-billion-debt-deal-blasts-neoclouds

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ElxZFG9lfmQ

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001513845/000110465926117978/tm2628078d1_ex99-1.htm

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/14/coreweave-stock-bond-yields-ai-debt.html

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2026/10/21/surging-yields-biggest-debt-sale-delay

$NVDA (-0,08 %)$AMD (-1,01 %)$MU (-0,35 %)