Puestos
318In my free time, I am learning about AI and I made dedicated YT channel Smart News AI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BY2uJmaPSi0 to publish recent AI news and help people learn about changes in short, clean and informative way.
In first episode, I cover last week AI News from tech giants like $GOOG (+0,54 %)
$META (+1,38 %) and $AAPL (-1,19 %)
Thanks for reading
Alphabet Inc. experienced a 3.5% decline in its share price today, closing at $167.73. This drop is attributed primarily to mounting regulatory scrutiny from the European Union. Under the recently enforced Digital Markets Act (DMA), the EU is challenging Alphabet’s preferential treatment of its own services, such as Google Shopping and Flights, potentially leading to significant fines or mandated operational changes.
The regulatory uncertainty has heightened investor caution, compounded by broader market volatility and signs of a potential technical correction after sustained gains in recent months. The company’s negotiation efforts with EU regulators have so far failed to satisfy competitors or ease market concerns.
From a technical analysis standpoint, the stock broke below a key short-term support level around $170. Traders will be watching closely to see if it consolidates above $165 or continues downward momentum. With legal risks rising and macroeconomic conditions unstable, investors may be reassessing Alphabet’s near-term valuation premium.
Short note
This is a very simplified version and only serves as a brief introduction. I cannot rule out possible errors. The post is also inspired by an episode of the German-language podcast "Doppelgaenger Tech Talk" [1]. For even more (detailed) information, it's definitely worth listening to the episode.
Introduction
To find the quarterly reports of a company, simply search for the company name followed by "Investor Relations" using the relevant search engine. As a rule, you will now land on a special subpage of the company. Then look for terms such as "Financials", "Reports" or "Quarterly Results". Fortunately, there are only two major SaaS providers for investor relations pages. This means that these subpages are generally structured very similarly.
At Alphabet, the parent company of Google $GOOG (+0,54 %) the quarterly report can be found directly on the homepage.
In addition to the actual earnings release, there is also a webcast of the earnings call (often as a transcript or video). The earnings slides are a prepared and visually more appealing version of the most important figures and graphics presented in the earnings call. For detailed information, there is also the 10-Q (in the USA), a formal, strictly regulated document that provides a more comprehensive insight into a company's business model, risks and opportunities. However, the focus is now on the earnings release.
Disclaimer
This is not investment advice. These are personal opinions and cannot replace professional advice. If you don't want to miss any more stock analyses and articles from me, please subscribe to my free sub-subscription (link in profile).
Structure of an earnings release
A typical earnings release follows a clear (sometimes predetermined) structure designed to provide investors with the most important information quickly:
The date and quarter are in the title
Selected highlights of the quarterSelected highlights of the quarter: The positive aspects and successes of the company are emphasized here in order to convince investors.
Opening statement by the CEOA personal statement emphasizing the (supposedly) outstanding achievements of the past quarter.
Financial SummaryA summary of the basic financial figures, such as turnover and profit.
Outlook for the next quarterMany companies provide forecasts for the coming period here. If they are missing here, they are often mentioned in the subsequent earnings call.
Legal informationDisclaimer for the outlook and explanations of the metrics used.
CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF INCOMEA detailed overview of the company's earnings position.
Balance Sheet (CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS)A list of assets and liabilities.
Cash Flow Statement (CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF CASH FLOWS)This is where non-cash transactions such as depreciation and amortization or stock compensation are adjusted to show the actual cash flow.
The income statement using Alphabet as an example [2]
The income statement shows how profitable a company is. The cost structure is disclosed. The current figures are always compared with the figures from the same period in the previous year in order to exclude seasonal effects. It is exciting when a company can increase sales faster than costs. This is known as operating leverage.
Important questions
-How fast did sales grow? Has sales growth slowed down?
-Has profit increased in line with sales? If not, why?
-Does most of the actual profit come from operating profit or is interest income etc. mainly responsible for the profit?
-Will existing shareholders be diluted by the issue of new shares?
-Which is the largest cost item and can it be reduced through economies of scale?
-Does the gross margin indicate pricing power and future profitability?
The balance sheet
The balance sheet lists the assets and liabilities of a company. It is divided into current and non-current items and is compared with the closing balance sheet of the previous fiscal year.
Important questions
-How much cash and cash equivalents does the company have?
-How high are the long-term financial liabilities?
-Is there a healthy balance between equity and borrowed capital?
-How is the inventory developing? Are there any indications of sales problems?
-Is the company in a position to pay short-term liabilities?
The cash flow statement
The cash flow statement provides information on the actual financial strength of a company and looks at the course of the current financial year to date.
Important questions
-Is the operating cash flow positive and how does it relate to profit?
-Is the company paying off debt?
-How are capital expenditures developing?
Sources
[1] https://www.doppelgaenger.io/deep-dive-earnings-report-verstehen-am-beispiel-von-palantir-417/
Updated portfolio with new positions in $NBIS (+4,09 %)
$ASTS (+2,34 %)
$HIMS (+6,34 %) and $NOVO B (-1,96 %) . Closed $AAPL (-1,19 %) for good as I believe they have been left behind in innovation for a long time now and its prospects are less attractice than the other Mag7 I hold ($NVDA (+0,01 %) , $AMZN (+1,26 %) , $GOOG (+0,54 %)
$MSFT (-0,12 %) and $TSLA (+0,2 %) , ordered in decreasing % of overall portfolio). Also i doubled my position in $LLY (+0,07 %) as currently experienced a healty but significant pullback.
Big part of portfolio is now in nuclear stocks, as I have increased my position in $OKLO and opened a position in $SMR
What do you think would be the most compelling 10-15y holds missing here? Please argument as I am very interested in learning macrotrends I may have overlooked.
## 1. 🔍 Key Insights Summary
- Alphabet holds dominant positions in digital advertising and search, with expanding AI and cloud infrastructure segments.
- First-time dividend (2024) and ongoing share buybacks signal financial maturity and discipline.
- Financials remain robust: strong free cash flow, high margins, and conservative debt profile.
- Regulatory pressures, especially antitrust actions, are the primary risk but currently manageable.
---
## 2. 🧩 Core Evaluation Areas
### 📉 Valuation
- **P/E Ratio (TTM):** 16.9x (vs. peer avg. ~20x)
- **PEG Ratio:** 1.12
- **FCF Yield:** 6.5% (vs. peer median ~4%)
- **DCF Intrinsic Value:** ~$195/share
- **Current Price:** ~$168 → ~14% discount
### 🚀 Growth Potential
- Short-term: AI-integrated search, YouTube growth, cloud monetization.
- Long-term: Google Cloud (25%+ YoY growth), Waymo, and AI platform scaling.
### ⚙️ Operational Efficiency
- **Operating Margin:** 33.2%
- **ROIC (Est.):** 29.8% > WACC (~8%)
- High cash conversion and reinvestment discipline.
### ⚠️ Risk Factors
**Company-Specific (Moderate–High):**
- Antitrust exposure (e.g., Chrome, ad tech)
- AI infrastructure execution risk ($75B+ plan)
**Systemic (Moderate):**
- Ad spend cyclicality
- FX/geopolitical exposure
---
## 3. 📊 Supporting Metrics & Competitive Landscape
| Metric | Alphabet (GOOG) | Microsoft | Meta |
|----------------------------|----------------|-----------|---------|
| Market Cap (Trillion USD) | 1.88 | 3.44 | 1.68 |
| P/E (TTM) | 16.9x | 36.3x | 22.5x |
| ROE | ~30% | ~37% | ~25% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.49% | 0.75% | 0.00% |
---
## 4. 🔮 Projections & Scenarios
- **Revenue Growth (5Y CAGR est.):** 10–12%
- **DCF Intrinsic Value Range:** $195–$210/share
- **Target Buy Range:** $150–$160 (15–20% margin of safety)
> Assumes FCF growth of 10%, WACC 8%, terminal growth 2.5%.
---
## 5. 🧨 Risk Assessment & Categorization
| Risk Type | Category | Mitigants |
|------------------------|----------|-----------------------------------------------------|
| Regulatory (antitrust) | High | Legal teams, diversification, strong public trust |
| Execution (AI, Cloud) | Moderate | Past track record, deep cash reserves |
| Ad Cyclicality | Moderate | Diversified revenue, high-margin core business |
| FX/Geo Risk | Low | Global footprint and currency hedging |
---
## 6. ✅ Conclusion & Recommendation
Alphabet combines:
- Strong and growing cash flow
- High profitability and ROIC
- Long-term reinvestment in dominant and growing markets
- Reasonable valuation with a meaningful discount to intrinsic value
**🟩 Final Recommendation: BUY**
**🎯 Intrinsic Value Range:** $195–$210
**💸 Entry Price Target:** $150–$160
**🕰️ Re-Evaluate If:** Regulatory actions escalate or core margins deteriorate
Milei instead of Marx, The Libertarians, Freedom, Politics, Taxes, Bitcoin & Stocks (Politics Special)
Spotify
https://open.spotify.com/episode/2ZIIFHH4odmN8yecmethih?si=TFRwTlsLTSK-W7LmYOk0Lg
YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XPqh3DNC5lQ
Apple Podcast
$BTC (-0,95 %)
$TSLA (+0,2 %)
$GOOGL (+0,57 %)
$GOOG (+0,54 %)
$MSFT (-0,12 %)
I have to say that I $992 (+1,19 %) already have in the depot. What is still missing $GMEXICOB (+3,14 %) , $NU (-0,35 %) (additional purchase), $GOOG (+0,54 %) and $NKE (+0,98 %) .
What was I thinking?
Best regards,
Angelo from Finanzen Anders
Annotation:
The majority of the GQ community is really great.
Unfortunately, there are a few "mimimis", "sheriffs", "bored", "envious", etc. who complain that I include links to my respective YouTube video.
It just so happens that my main channel is YouTube. I'm not going to write huge treatises and post them here when I can do the whole thing in short videos.
I would like to offer this link as a service to anyone who is interested:
Everyone else, you are free people, you don't have to get upset, attack me, etc. - block me and enjoy your life.
1st Gemini Ultra: Premium AI tier for $249.99/month with Veo 3, Flow and more.
2. deep think: Enhanced thinking capability for Gemini 2.5 Pro, in testing phase.
3. Veo 3: Video AI with sound effects and dialog for the Gemini app.
4. Imagen 4: Faster image generator, supports 2K resolution.
5. Gemma 3n: AI model for phones that processes multiple data types.
6. Gemini App: Adds live camera, screen sharing and Google integrations.
7. AI mode for search: Processing of complex queries, launch in the USA.
8 Project Astra: Multimodal AI for glasses and search, no launch date.
9. Beam: 3D teleconferencing with AI translation, delivery end of 2025.
10. Stitch: AI tool for app design that generates UI/code.
11. Wear OS 6: New fonts and theming for Pixel Watches.
12 Workspace AI: Intelligent answers in Gmail, video editing in Vids.
13. NotebookLM: Adds video overviews for research.
14. SynthID Detector: Checks AI-generated content.
15. Google Play: New developer tools, subscription management.
16. Android Studio: AI functions such as Journeys, Crash Insights.
Read more here: https://blog.google/technology/developers/google-io-2025-collection/
$AAPL (-1,19 %) attacked $GOOG (+0,54 %) .
FED maintained its interest rate fearing unemployment.
$NVDA (+0,01 %) is up due to Trump's decision to ease export regulation. A ripple effect started throughout the industry, moving a lot of companies up. They say "A rising tide helps all boats" and this is certainly true in $NVDA (+0,01 %) 's case. In fact, I'm afraid that Nvidia might become a hype company like $TSLA (+0,2 %) and $PLTR (+1,31 %) ...
Regardless, the market picked up significantly in the after hours.
Also, is China looking like it is losing the trade war? Increased stimulus and rate cuts in China mean that the CCP is making it easier for Chinese citizens to borrow.
Meanwhile, the Taiwanese dollar is still getting stronger. This may become a significant headache for the US and the FED.
The Euro lost some value compared to the USD today. Still, since Trump's presidency, the Euro is stronger than it has been in years. European leaders are looking to devalue the Euro to make exports more attractive. This forex activity needs a lot of time to play out, of course.
What about "Great" Britain? The GBP is going down the drain, and my main complaint about $SCHY is that it has too much exposure to the UK. In my humblest of opinions, $VYMI > $SCHY , but I am investing in both.
Lastly, I regret not having invested more in $RHM (+6,55 %) ...
Principales creadores de la semana
