1st Vinci (DG: SGE) $DG (+1,51 %)

* Quantitative valuation:

* P/E ratio: approx. 12 (6 points)

* P/B ratio: approx. 1.8 (8 points)

* ROE: approx. 12% (6 points)

* Leverage ratio: approx. 0.5 (8 points)

* Dividend yield: approx. 4% (10 points)

* Sales growth: approx. 5% (6 points)

* PEG ratio: approx. 1.5 (6 points)

* Cash flow yield: approx. 7% (6 points)

* Valuation table:

| Metric | Share Value | Reference Values | Share Rating | Weighted Score |

|---|---|---|---|---|

| P/E | 12 | 10-20 (6 points) | 6 | 6 |

| P/E | 1.8 | 1-2 (8 points) | 8 | 8 |

| ROE | 12% | 8-15% (6 points) | 6 | 6 |

| Debt/equity ratio | 0.5 | 0.3-0.6 (8 points) | 8 | 8 |

| Dividend yield | 4% | >4% (10 points) | 10 | 10 |

| Sales growth | 5% | 4-8% (6 points) | 6 | 6 |

| PEG Ratio | 1.5 | 1-2 (6 points) | 6 | 6 |

| Cash flow yield | 7% | 5-10% (6 points) | 6 | 6 |

* Qualitative assessment:

* Market position: 9 points

* Competitive landscape: 7 points

* Management quality: 8 points

2. ABB (DG: ABBN) $ABBNY (-0,68 %)

* Quantitative assessment:

* P/E ratio: approx. 26 (1 point)

* P/B ratio: approx. 3 (1 point)

* ROE: approx. 16% (10 points)

* Leverage ratio: approx. 0.4 (8 points)

* Dividend yield: approx. 2% (1 point)

* Sales growth: approx. 6% (6 points)

* PEG ratio: approx. 2.2 (1 point)

* Cash flow yield: approx. 5% (6 points)

* Valuation table:

| Metric | Share Value | Reference Values | Share Rating | Weighted Score |

|---|---|---|---|---|

| P/E | 26 | >20 (1 point) | 1 | 1 |

| P/B ratio | 3 | >2 (1 point) | 1 | 1 |

| ROE | 16% | >15% (10 points) | 10 | 10 |

| Leverage ratio | 0.4 | 0.3-0.6 (8 points) | 8 | 8 |

| Dividend yield | 2% | <2% (1 Punkt) | 1 | 1 |

| Umsatzwachstum | 6% | 4-8% (6 Punkte) | 6 | 6 |

| PEG Ratio | 2,2 | >2 (1 point) | 1 | 1 |

| Cash flow yield | 5% | 5-10% (6 points) | 6 | 6 |

* Qualitative assessment:

* Market position: 9 points

* Competitive landscape: 8 points

* Management quality: 9 points

3rd Randstad (DG: RAND) $RAND (+0 %)

* Quantitative assessment:

* P/E ratio: approx. 10 (10 points)

* P/B ratio: approx. 1.5 (8 points)

* ROE: approx. 13% (6 points)

* Debt-equity ratio: approx. 0.5 (8 points)

* Dividend yield: approx. 4% (10 points)

* Sales growth: approx. 4% (6 points)

* PEG ratio: approx. 1.3 (6 points)

* Cash flow yield: approx. 8% (6 points)

* Valuation table:

| Metric | Share Value | Reference Values | Share Rating | Weighted Score |

|---|---|---|---|---|

| P/E | 10 | <10 (10 Punkte) | 10 | 10 |

| KBV | 1,5 | 1-2 (8 Punkte) | 8 | 8 |

| ROE | 13% | 8-15% (6 Punkte) | 6 | 6 |

| Verschuldungsgrad | 0,5 | 0,3-0,6 (8 Punkte) | 8 | 8 |

| Dividendenrendite | 4% | >4% (10 points) | 10 | 10 |

| Sales growth | 4% | 4-8% (6 points) | 6 | 6 |

| PEG Ratio | 1.3 | 1-2 (6 points) | 6 | 6 |

| Cash flow yield | 8% | 5-10% (6 points) | 6 | 6 |

* Qualitative assessment:

* Market position: 8 points

* Competitive landscape: 6 points

* Management quality: 8 points

4th Schneider Electric (DG: SU) $SU (+1,84 %)

* Quantitative assessment:

* P/E ratio: approx. 23 (1 point)

* P/B ratio: approx. 3 (1 point)

* ROE: approx. 15% (6 points)

* Leverage ratio: approx. 0.5 (8 points)

* Dividend yield: approx. 2% (1 point)

* Sales growth: approx. 7% (6 points)

* PEG ratio: approx. 2.1 (1 point)

* Cash flow yield: approx. 6% (6 points)

* Valuation table:

| Metric | Share Value | Reference Values | Share Rating | Weighted Score |

|---|---|---|---|---|

| P/E | 23 | >20 (1 point) | 1 | 1 |

| P/B ratio | 3 | >2 (1 point) | 1 | 1 |

| ROE | 15% | 8-15% (6 points) | 6 | 6 |

| Debt/equity ratio | 0.5 | 0.3-0.6 (8 points) | 8 | 8 |

| Dividend yield | 2% | <2% (1 Punkt) | 1 | 1 |

| Umsatzwachstum | 7% | 4-8% (6 Punkte) | 6 | 6 |

| PEG Ratio | 2,1 | >2 (1 point) | 1 | 1 |

| Cash flow yield | 6% | 5-10% (6 points) | 6 | 6 |

* Qualitative assessment:

* Market position: 9 points

* Competitive landscape: 7 points

* Management quality: 9 points

Summary:

* Randstad appears to be the most attractive in quantitative terms due to its low P/E ratio and high dividend yield.

* ABB and Schneider Electric have higher growth and profitability ratios, but are also valued higher.

* Vinci offers a good middle ground.

Randstand and Vinci will therefore move in. Until such time as Swiss shares are tradable throughout the EU again, I am considering whether to add Schneider Electric or ABB.

I wish you a sunny start to the week!

The world's population is getting older and older, an irreversible demographic change with considerable economic consequences.

This article is intended to provide investment ideas and impetus. The stocks mentioned do not, of course, constitute investment advice, but merely serve as examples of potential beneficiaries of demographic change. Historical developments are no guarantee of future returns.

The main source is the short analysis "How to invest as the global population ages" by Goldman Sachs [1], which, however, does not name any specific stocks.

I have also added additional sources and charts.

__________

🌍 Demographic change: growth and ageing of the world's population

The world's population will grow to almost 10 billion people by 2050. But it is not just the number of people that is increasing, their age structure is also changing dramatically. [2]

Increase in the older population:

• The proportion of people aged 60 and over is rising from 8% (1950) to 21.5% (2050).
• In 2050, 2.1 billion people will belong to the over-60 age group.

Source: [2]

Regional differences:

Europe & North America have the oldest populations & remain the most affected demographically.

Latin America, the Caribbean & Asia: The proportion of over-60s will more than double between 2015 and 2050, reaching around 25 %.

Africa remains the youngest region: in 2015, there were 21 countries worldwide with a birth rate of 5 children per woman, 19 of which were in Africa. However, it should be noted that current statistics from 2024 show that the birth rate per woman in Africa was already just 4.07 in 2023 and could fall to 2.79 by 2050. [3]

While industrialized countries are struggling with an ageing society, Africa remains the most dynamic and youngest region in the world. This development can also have an economic impact and open up new investment opportunities. [2]

Goldman Sachs also comments in the article with similar figures, according to which the global population is expected to increase by around 20% by 2050 and senior citizens will make up a disproportionate share. The number of people over the age of 65 is expected to double from 800 million to 1.6 billion during this period. [1]

In view of this demographic development, there are opportunities to benefit from precisely this trend. Opportunities lie in targeted investments in sectors that could benefit from the growing proportion of older people.

🚑 Healthcare: A growing market worth billions

Facts:

• In the USA, people over the age of 65 already account for 36% of healthcare expenditure, although they only make up 18% of the population. Age-related diseases such as cardiovascular disease, diabetes and neurological disorders are driving up costs. [1]
• Alzheimer's cases are even expected to double worldwide by 2050.

Possible profiteers:

Medical technology

• Medtronic ($MDT (-0,94 %) ) - (cardiac pacemakers, diabetes technology)
• Stryker ($SYK (-0,28 %) ) - (orthopaedic implants, surgical devices)
• Siemens Healthineers ($SHL (+0,53 %) ) - (imaging, diagnostics)

Pharmaceuticals

• Novo Nordisk ($NOVO B (+0 %) ) - (Diabetes & Obesity)
• Eli Lilly ($LLY (-2,15 %) ) - (Alzheimer's, Diabetes)
• Roche ($ROG (+0,54 %) ) - (Oncology, Diagnostics)

🏡 Senior Living & Care: Bottlenecks in nursing homes worldwide

Facts:

The UK has a shortfall of over 30,000 senior units by 2028. [1]

In Germany, France and Italy there is a shortage of nursing home places due to the ageing population. [1]

In the US, only 2% of people over 65 live in nursing homes, leading to an increasing demand for home care and telemedicine. [1]

Potential beneficiaries:

Care providers

• Brookdale Senior Living ($BKD (-2,16 %) ) - (senior living, care facilities)

Homecare

• ResMed ($RMD (-0,43 %) ) - (sleep apnea, ventilators)
• Fresenius Medical Care ($FME (-0,33 %) ) - (dialysis, home therapy)
• Coloplast ($COLO B (+0 %) ) - (ostomy care, incontinence products)

Telemedicine

• Teladoc Health ($TDOC (-2,04 %) ) - (virtual doctor visits, digital health solutions)
• Hims & Hers ($HIMS (+5,38 %) ) - (telemedicine & e-health)

Anti-Aging

• L'Oréal ($OR (+3,18 %) ) - (skin care, cosmetics)
• Estee Lauder ($EL (+0 %) ) - (luxury cosmetics, skin rejuvenation)
• Revance Therapeutics ($RVNC ) - (Botox alternative, wrinkle treatment)

🚢 Leisure & consumption: The new "silver economy"

The following chart shows the distribution of wealth in Germany depending on the age of the main income earner. [4]

It is clear that older people tend to have higher wealth than younger age groups. This is reflected in the significantly higher values for the percentiles for age groups aged 50 and over. In particular, the groups aged between 50 and 74 have the highest assets.

The trends are also similar internationally:

• The wealth of older people is 3x that of millennials.
• Over-60s control more than 50% of consumer spending in many developed countries.
• The global silver economy could reach a volume of USD 15 trillion by 2030 (Oxford Economics).

This observation underlines the economic importance of the older generations and their central role in wealth distribution and consumer spending.

Possible beneficiaries:

Luxury

• LVMH ($MC (-0,03 %) ) - (fashion, jewelry, wine & spirits)
• Hermès ($RMS (+0,19 %) ) - (Exclusive Fashion & Accessories)
• Richemont ($CFR (+0,81 %) ) - (Swiss luxury watches & jewelry)

Cruise (Over 60s book a third of all cruises worldwide [1])

• Royal Caribbean ($RCL (+0 %) ) - (Cruises for seniors & families)
• Carnival ($CCL (+0,17 %) ) - (mass market cruises)
• Norwegian Cruise Line ($NCLH (+0,91 %) ) - (premium cruises)

Motorhome manufacturers/ recreational vehicles (47% of motorhome users are over 55 years old, In the UK, two thirds of over 55s have a motorcycle license, which may indicate a growing market for motorcycles and accessories. [1])

• Thor Industries ($THO (+0 %) ) - (motorhomes, campers)
• Winnebago ($WGO (+0,31 %) ) - (motorhomes & caravans)
• Harley-Davidson ($HOG (-0,81 %) ) - (motorcycles and entry-level electric motorcycles)

🤖 Technology & automation: solution to the labor shortage

Facts:

The labor shortage caused by an aging society is becoming a global challenge. Automation, AI and robotics could help close the skills gap. [1]

Profiteers:

• ABB ($ABBNY (-0,68 %) ) - (industrial robotics, automation)
• Fanuc ($6954 (+0 %) ) - (robotics, factory automation)
• Intuitive Surgical ($ISRG (+1,66 %) ) - (robot-assisted surgery)
• Siemens ($SIE (+1,04 %) )- (automation & also medical technology)

🧠 Conclusion:

Demographic change offers long-term investment opportunities. Early investment in the right sectors can benefit from rising spending on health, care, leisure and technology.

I myself am still looking for one or two individual investments and am a little annoyed that I didn't get into Hims & Hers earlier, although I have been on the verge of doing so several times. Apart from the luxury segment with LVMH, the portfolio also includes Siemens as a conglomerate in the field of automation.

Do you explicitly take demographic change into account in your investments, e.g. in the form of individual shares?

Which shares do you have in your portfolio or do you still see them as an opportunity?

Thanks for reading!

_________

Sources:

[1] https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/how-to-invest-as-the-global-population-ages

[2] https://www.bpb.de/kurz-knapp/zahlen-und-fakten/globalisierung/52811/demografischer-wandel/

[3] https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/1343516/umfrage/entwicklung-der-fertilitaetsrate-in-afrika/

[4]

https://www.iwd.de/artikel/mit-dem-alter-waechst-das-vermoegen-489710/

Analyst updates, 04.12.

⬆️⬆️⬆️

- BARCLAYS raises the price target for SIEMENS from EUR 125 to EUR 130. Underweight. $SIE (+1,04 %)

- BARCLAYS raises the target price for SIEMENS ENERGY from EUR 35 to EUR 36. Equal-Weight. $ENR (+2,6 %)

- JEFFERIES raises the target price for ADYEN from EUR 1695 to EUR 1797. Buy. $ADYEN (+0,23 %)

- JPMORGAN raises the target price for SALESFORCE from USD 340 to USD 380. Overweight. $CRM (+1,09 %)

- HSBC raises the target price for ZALANDO from EUR 37 to EUR 40. Buy. $ZAL (+0,81 %)

- JPMORGAN raises the target price for RHEINMETALL from EUR 680 to EUR 800. Overweight. $RHM (+0 %)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the target price for COCA-COLA HBC from GBP 31.50 to GBP 32. Buy. $CCH (+0,64 %)

- BARCLAYS raises the target price for KNORR-BREMSE from EUR 55 to EUR 60. Underweight. $KBX (-0,83 %)

- BARCLAYS raises the price target for ABB from CHF 40 to CHF 42. Underweight. $ABBNY (-0,68 %)

- BARCLAYS raises the price target for ALSTOM from EUR 8 to EUR 9. Underweight. $ALO (+0 %)

- HSBC upgrades MERCK & CO to Buy. Target price USD 130. $MRK (-2,71 %)

- JPMORGAN raises the target price for DSV from DKK 1685 to DKK 1800. Overweight. $DSV (+1,61 %)

- JPMORGAN raises the target price for LUFTHANSA from EUR 4.80 to EUR 5.50. Underweig$LHA (-1,42 %)

- UBS raises the target price for AROUNDTOWN from EUR 2 to EUR 3.30. Neutral. $AT1 (+2,4 %)

⬇️⬇️⬇️

- JPMORGAN lowers the target price for DHL GROUP from EUR 47 to EUR 42.50. Overweight. $DHL (+0,66 %)

- WARBURG RESEARCH lowers the target price for UNITED INTERNET from EUR 38.50 to EUR 37.30. Buy. $UTDI (+0 %)

- WARBURG RESEARCH lowers the target price for 1&1 from EUR 23.50 to EUR 19.10. Buy. $1U1 (+0 %)

- WARBURG RESEARCH lowers the target price for KWS SAAT from EUR 89 to EUR 88. Buy. $KWS (+0,71 %)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH downgrades HEINEKEN from Buy to Hold and lowers target price from EUR 95 to EUR 76. $HEIA (-1,48 %)

- EXANE BNP lowers the price target for SCHOTT PHARMA from EUR 36 to EUR 28. Neutral. $1SXP (-1,35 %)

- BARCLAYS downgrades SIGNIFY to Underweight. Target price EUR 18. $LIGHT (+0 %)

- CFRA downgrades BRISTOL-MYERS SQUIBB to Hold. Target price USD 60. $BMY (-1,95 %)

- MORGAN STANLEY downgrades MOLLER-MAERSK to Underweight. Target price DKK 12200. $AMKBY (+0 %)

- BARCLAYS downgrades ANDRITZ to Underweight. Target price EUR 40. $ANDR (+0,81 %)

- JPMORGAN lowers the price target for HAPAG-LLOYD from EUR 85 to EUR 80. Underweight. $HLAG (+3,59 %)

Analyst updates, 29.11.

⬆️⬆️⬆️

- BOFA raises the price target for SIEMENS ENERGY from EUR 48 to EUR 52. Neutral. $ENR (+2,6 %)

- GOLDMAN raises the target price for DEUTSCHE TELEKOM from EUR 37 to EUR 39. Buy. $DTE (+0,32 %)

- BERENBERG raises the price target for PFIZER from USD 27 to USD 29. Hold. $PFE (-2,5 %)

- JPMORGAN raises the target price for JUST EAT TAKEAWAY from GBP 14.15 to GBP 16.02. Overweight. $TKWY (-0,33 %)

- WARBURG RESEARCH raises the target price for RATIONAL from EUR 800 to EUR 810. Hold. $RAA (-0,91 %)

- BOFA upgrades SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC from Underperform to Neutral and raises target price from 175 EUR to 255 EUR. $SU (+1,84 %)

- BOFA raises the price target for NORDEX from 17.90 EUR to 19.30 EUR. Buy. $NDX1 (+0 %)

- BERENBERG raises the target price for ZALANDO from EUR 29.70 to EUR 38. Buy. $ZAL (+0,81 %)

- WARBURG RESEARCH upgrades WACKER NEUSON from Hold to Buy. Target price EUR 17. $WAC (+3,16 %)

- WARBURG RESEARCH raises the price target for ALZCHEM from EUR 75 to EUR 77.50. Buy. $ACT (+5,29 %)

- ODDO BHF upgrades NORMA GROUP from Neutral to Outperform. Target price EUR 18.10. $NOEJ (+0 %)

- BOFA raises the price target for KNORR-BREMSE from EUR 68 to EUR 70. Underperform. $KBX (-0,83 %)

- BOFA upgrades ABB to Buy. $ABBNY (-0,68 %)

- BOFA upgrades KION from Neutral to Buy and raises target price from EUR 39.50 to EUR 48.50. $KGX (-1,41 %)

- BOFA upgrades JUNGHEINRICH from Underperform to Neutral and raises target price from EUR 24 to EUR 26. $JUN3 (-1,71 %)

- BERENBERG raises the price target for GLOBAL FASHION GROUP from EUR 0.23 to EUR 0.27. Hold. $GFG (-0,1 %)

- HSBC raises the price target for DEUTSCHE BÖRSE from EUR 230 to EUR 236. Buy. $DB1 (+0,99 %)

⬇️⬇️⬇️

- KEPLER CHEUVREUX lowers the price target for HUGO BOSS from EUR 59 to EUR 41. Buy. $BOSS (+1,37 %)

- BOFA downgrades GENERALI from Neutral to Underperform and raises target price from EUR 26 to EUR 27. $G (+0,66 %)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH lowers the price target for L'OREAL from EUR 335 to EUR 280. Sell. $OR (+3,18 %)

- BOFA lowers the target price for BAE SYSTEMS from GBP 13.75 to GBP 12.40. Underperform. $BA. (+1,53 %)

- BERENBERG lowers the price target for ALLGEIER from EUR 22 to EUR 19. Buy. $0RQZ

Analyst updates, 29.10. 👇🏼

⬆️⬆️⬆️

• JEFFERIES raises the price target for SAP $SAP (+0,9 %) from EUR 230 to EUR 255. Buy.
• DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for DEUTSCHE TELEKOM $DTE (+0,32 %) from EUR 33 to EUR 39. Buy.
• ODDO BHF raises the target price for ALLIANZ
  SE
  $ALV (+0,98 %) from EUR 288 to EUR 324. Outperform.
• ODDO BHF raises the price target for DWS
  $DWS (+2,71 %) from EUR 38 to EUR 39. Neutral.
• METZLER raises the price target for LUFTHANSA $LHA (-1,42 %) from EUR 5.70 to EUR 6.40. Hold.
• METZLER raises the price target for NEMETSCHEK
  $NEM (+0,19 %) from EUR 89 to EUR 91. Hold.
• METZLER raises the price target for FRIEDRICH
  VORWERK $VH2 (+9,55 %) from EUR 29.20 to EUR 38. Buy.
• GOLDMAN raises the price target for SYMRISE $SY1 (+0,4 %) from EUR 127 to EUR 131. Neutral.

⬇️⬇️⬇️

• BOFA lowers the price target for MUNICH
  RE
  $MUV2 (+0,6 %) from EUR 550 to EUR 535. Buy.
• WARBURG RESEARCH lowers the price target for WACKER
  CHEMICALS $WCH (-2,2 %) from EUR 136 to EUR 133. Buy.
• WARBURG RESEARCH downgrades STEICO
  $ST5 (+2,32 %) from Buy to Hold and lowers target price from EUR 42 to EUR 29.
• METZLER lowers the price target for SALZGITTER $SZG (+5,79 %) from EUR 17 to EUR 15.50. Hold.
• DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH lowers the price target for SGL
  CARBON $SGL (+0 %) from EUR 10.80 to EUR 10.60. Buy.
• LBBW downgrades PHILIPS $PHIA (-0,38 %) from Buy to Hold and lowers target price from EUR 30 to EUR 26.
• GOLDMAN downgrades ABB
  $ABBNY (-0,68 %) from Buy to Neutral. Target price CHF 52.
• UBS lowers the price target for CARL ZEISS MEDITEC $AFX (-3,37 %) from EUR 71 to EUR 65. Neutral.
• JPMORGAN lowers the price target for STMICRO
  $STMPA (-1,24 %) from EUR 42 to EUR 35. Overweight.

ABB Q3 2024

$ABBNY (-0,68 %)

ABB's financial report for the third quarter of 2024 reflects a balanced mix of growth and challenges across its businesses. The company reported a 2% year-on-year increase in orders and revenue, with orders rising to $8,193 million and revenue to $8,151 million. The operating EBITA margin improved significantly by 160 basis points to 19.0%.

Positive developments:

Electrification segmentThis segment delivered a strong performance with a 10% increase in both orders and sales. The operating EBITA margin reached a new high of 24.1%, an increase of 330 basis points compared to the previous year. This success was supported by higher volumes and continuous improvement measures.

Process automationDespite a 5% decline in orders, sales rose by 6%, driven by stable customer activity and positive price effects. The operating EBITA margin was 15.2%, which is the third consecutive quarter in which the margin has been above 15%.

Sustainability effortsABB achieved an impressive 17% reduction in CO₂e emissions compared to the previous year, underlining the company's commitment to sustainability.

Challenges:

Regional performance: In the US in particular, an important market in the Americas, orders fell by 6%. This is partly due to the high level of large comparable orders from the previous year.

Motion segment: Orders fell by 4%, mainly due to the timing of project orders, particularly in the rail business. Nevertheless, the operating EBITA margin improved by 90 basis points to 20.7%.

Robotics & Discrete AutomationThis segment faced challenges and contributed to lower sales growth than expected.

Outlook:

For the fourth quarter of 2024, ABB expects comparable revenue growth in the low to mid single-digit range, but with a negative book-to-bill ratio and a lower operating EBITA margin compared to the previous quarter. For the full year 2024, the company expects a positive book-to-bill ratio, comparable sales growth of less than 5% and an operating EBITA margin slightly above 18%.

Overall, ABB remains focused on driving growth and profitability through the "ABB Way" operating model, integrating M&A activities into the corporate culture and striving for a high return on capital employed (ROCE). Earnings, however, were rather disappointing.

⚙️ Giants of industry: Siemens, Schneider Electric, GE & ABB in a power comparison 💪

Company presentation

• Siemens AG: Headquartered in Germany, Siemens is a global player in the fields of electrification, automation and digitalization. The company operates in a wide range of sectors, including industry, energy, mobility and building technology, and drives technological innovation to increase efficiency and sustainability.

• Schneider Electric SE: The French company Schneider Electric specializes in solutions for energy management and automation. Schneider has a strong focus on sustainable energy and increasing efficiency in various industrial sectors, which gives them a leading position in the industry.

• General Electric (GE): GE is an American industrial conglomerate that focuses on aerospace, energy, healthcare and renewable energy. In recent years, GE has increasingly focused on the development of aviation and divested other businesses.

• ABB Ltd: ABB, based in Switzerland, is a provider of electrification and automation technologies. ABB is particularly known for its innovations in robotics and digital solutions, which have made the company an important partner for industry.

Historical development

• Siemens: Founded in 1847 by Werner von Siemens, the company evolved from a pioneer in telegraph technology to a global innovation leader in automation and electrification technology.
• Schneider Electric: Originally founded in 1836 as a railroad and armaments company, Schneider Electric transformed over time into a company specializing in power distribution and automation.
• GE: Since the merger of Edison General Electric and Thomson-Houston in 1892, GE has pioneered technology in many areas, particularly in aviation and power generation.
• ABB: ABB was formed in 1988 from the merger of Sweden's ASEA and Switzerland's BBC and has since become one of the leading companies in automation and power technology.

Business models

• Siemens: Siemens operates in several segments, including Digital Industries, Smart Infrastructure, Mobility and Siemens Financial Services. The company pursues a business model based on the use of innovative technologies to improve efficiency and sustainability.
• Schneider Electric: Schneider Electric's focus is on digital solutions for energy management and automation. Its business model relies heavily on digitalization to increase sustainability and efficiency.
• GE: GE specializes in cutting-edge technological products, especially in aviation. The company pursues a strategy of diversification, with a clear focus on breakthrough technologies.
• ABB: ABB offers a wide range of products and services in the fields of electrification and automation. Its business model aims to improve operations through innovative software and automation solutions.

Core competencies

• Siemens: Outstanding innovative strength in automation technology, digital infrastructure and mobility solutions.
• Schneider Electric: Market leadership in energy management solutions and digital automation technologies with a strong focus on sustainability.
• GE: Leading position in aviation technology.
• ABB: Expertise in industrial automation, robotics and digital solutions to increase industrial efficiency.

Future prospects and strategic initiatives

• Siemens: Siemens is increasingly focusing on digitalization and sustainable technologies. The "Siemens Xcelerator" initiative is driving the development of digital solutions for a wide range of industries.
• Schneider Electric: Schneider Electric is planning further investments in sustainable technologies and digital solutions to increase energy efficiency worldwide.
• GE: GE is focusing on spinning off non-strategic businesses to focus on aviation and energy.
• ABB: ABB is investing heavily in research and development in artificial intelligence and robotics to further improve its product range and remain at the forefront of industrial innovation.

Market position and competition

• The company
• Market position
• Main competitors

• Siemens

Leader in industrial automation

Strong competition with Schneider Electric

• Schneider Electric

Market leader in energy management

Competition from Siemens and ABB

• GE

Dominant in aviation technology

Competition with Boeing in the aviation sector

• ABB

Leader in industrial automation

Competition with Siemens and Schneider Electric

Total Addressable Market (TAM)

• Siemens: The TAM for digital infrastructure solutions is estimated at several trillion euros.
• Schneider Electric: Schneider Electric sees a TAM in energy management and automation also in the trillions.
• GE: The aviation industry's TAM is estimated at over $800 billion.
• ABB: Industrial automation TAM is in the hundreds of billions of dollars.

Share performance

• Siemens AG: TR 10 years 169%
• Schneider Electric: TR 10 years 395%
• GE Aerospace: TR 10 years 74%
• ABB Ltd: TR 10 years 229%

For the development (company figures), better view and more check out the free blog: https://topicswithhead.beehiiv.com/p/giganten-der-industrie-siemens-schneider-electric-ge-abb-im-kraftvergleich

Conclusion

In terms of capital efficiency, ABB is clearly the top choice, followed by Schneider Electric, and their valuations are quite similar. However, ABB's domicile in Switzerland makes it a bit more cumbersome to buy its shares.

Looking at the last ten years, Schneider Electric has achieved remarkable results and could be considered a solid choice.

When it comes to innovation potential, Siemens is the most exciting candidate. The brand has a long history and has not always been at the forefront of change, but it has a wide range of interesting businesses. Despite its size, Siemens still has spin-off potential - an option that is often denied but demanded by many shareholders. Such a spin-off could be particularly beneficial, as similar moves have often had a positive effect in the past. The Mobility division, for example, could develop a new, independent focus. In the range between 125 and 145 euros, the share is already very attractive, as the company has strong figures and a leading position in promising areas.

For a rational investment decision, Schneider Electric and ABB combined offer a compelling package - both companies are strongly positioned and cover broad areas of industry, while also delivering excellent financial values.

Personally, I would prefer ABB and Siemens, in which I have not yet invested. Schneider Electric has clearly outperformed, but being based in France brings challenges - from withholding tax to domestic political decisions. The argument that "political stock markets have short legs" does not always apply here, as these factors are sometimes important. In addition, Schneider Electric's diversification is quite concentrated, which doesn't quite fit my idea of an industrial giant. Nevertheless, the share is definitely recommendable.

General Electric (GE), on the other hand, is less interesting for me due to the company's complex structure. Even though the company has just repositioned itself in order to regain its former strength. However, the spin-offs GE Healthcare and Vernova as separate units are definitely interesting, even if they have less to do with the topic now.

In conclusion, Siemens and ABB are well-diversified industrial groups that are driving modernization and automation worldwide and benefiting directly from change. Even in important markets such as Germany, there is still some work to be done, but in the medium term, modernization will hardly be avoidable here either. Both Siemens and ABB are excellently positioned for these developments, as well as in dynamic regions such as the USA and China. So if you want shares in this sector, here is the go-to. Schneider E. for those who really don't want to do without and otherwise ABB or Siemens, with a slight majority for ABB.

$SIE (+1,04 %)
$ABBNY (-0,68 %)
$GE (+1,89 %)
$SU (+1,84 %)

As every Sunday, the most important news of the last week, as well as the most important dates of the coming week. Also as video:

https://youtube.com/shorts/3i2ipcEwcYA?si=Ae4-GzoSHQCAUHKi

Monday:

Prices in the German wholesale sector fell significantly. They fell by 4.1% compared with the same month a year ago. As a result, end consumer inflation is also likely to continue to rise only moderately.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/konjunktur/teuerung-grosshandelspreise-mit-staerkstem-rueckgang-seit-mehr-als-drei-jahren/29448098.html

The trade surplus in the euro zone increased significantly in August (+EUR 11.9 billion). This was mainly due to higher exports and lower imports. Due to higher energy prices, which weighed on imports, there were even trade deficits at the start of the Ukraine war.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/dpa/eurozone-handelsbilanzueberschuss-gestiegen/29448382.html

Tuesday:

For the first time in a long time, positive news, the ZEW Economic Sentiment brightens. The sentiment barometer gained 10.3 points to -1.1 points. However, the assessment of the current economic situation clouded over somewhat.

https://www.n-tv.de/ticker/ZEW-Konjunkturerwartungen-fuer-Deutschland-hellen-sich-weiter-auf-article24470059.html

Strong retail data from the U.S. 🇺🇸 increase the likelihood of an interest rate hike by the FED and push the stock markets into negative territory.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/maerkte/marktberichte/dax-aktuell-dax-rutscht-nach-iranischer-warnung-und-starken-us-konjunkturdaten-richtung-15-000-punkte-ab/29450090.html

Wednesday:

China's economy is growing faster than expected. Compared to the same quarter last year, GDP grew by 4.9% in the third quarter. Growth of 4.5% was expected.

https://www.ft.com/content/a31fa9ed-fc5e-4a37-a80c-956b443ad38b

Still no turnaround on the German real estate market. The number of building permits for housing fell by 28.3% year-on-year in August. The order situation in the construction sector is becoming increasingly precarious.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/international/immobilien-baugenehmigungen-sinken-weiter-drastisch/29452330.html

$ASML (+0 %) ASML is suffering from weakness in orders. New orders slumped to EUR 2.6 billion, 42% less than in the previous quarter.

$ABBNY (-0,68 %) ABB significantly increased sales and profits, with third-quarter sales up 11% and profits up 145% to $882. However, analysts had expected even better figures.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/-geschaeftszahlen-im-newsblog-abb-schafft-gewinnsprung-und-hebt-ausblick-an/24098412.html

Thursday:

$TSLA (+4 %) disappointed with quarterly figures. Cash flow and margin suffer from discounting battles. Return on sales fell to 7.6%. At 9%, sales grew more slowly than experts had expected. Deliveries of the cyber truck should probably finally begin.

https://www.manager-magazin.de/unternehmen/autoindustrie/tesla-elon-musk-warnt-vor-sinkender-nachfrage-a-5e23407b-17fe-4ad0-bf31-f54ecfb5ed7e

$SAP (+0,9 %) SAP with strong figures, the cloud business has picked up again properly. The operating profit of 2.28 billion euros in the third quarter was well above analysts' expectations.

https://www.finanzen.net/amp/auf-dem-wachstumspfad-sap-aktie-sap-haelt-an-wachstums-und-gewinnziel-fest-12935293

Still no cooling of the labor market in the USA. Applications for unemployment benefits in the USA fell to an 8-month low.

https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/unemployment/2023/10/19/u-s--jobless-claims-fall-to-lowest-level-in-more-than-8-months

U.S. government bonds rise to over 5% yield, the highest level in 16 years. This is putting pressure on the stock market. However, this development cannot be viewed separately from current global politics. The main reason for the rise in value is that China is currently dropping out as a buyer. In addition, the Fed is reducing its bond holdings. In addition, more and more market participants expect the Fed to raise interest rates again.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/maerkte/anleihen/anleihemarkt-zinsschock-in-den-usa-anleiherenditen-steigen-auf-ueber-fuenf-prozent/29455604.html

Friday:

Producer prices in Germany fall at record pace. Producer prices fell by 14.7% in September, the sharpest drop ever. This is promising in terms of further inflation.

https://m.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/deutsche-erzeugerpreise-sinken-in-rekordtempo-minus-14-7-prozent-19256236.html

The solar sector is being sold off after poor figures from $SEDG (+2,49 %) SolarEdge sold off. Also $ENPH (+0,72 %) Enphase and SMA Solar also lose significant value.

https://www.finanzen.net/nachricht/aktien/pessimistische-signale-nasdaq-titel-solaredge-aktie-unter-druck-solaredge-enttaeuscht-mit-schwachem-umsatz-auch-sma-solar-aktie-und-enphase-energy-aktie-schwach-12940938

Monday: 16:00 Consumer confidence (Eurozone)

Tuesday: 9:30 Purchasing Managers' Index (DE)

Wednesday: 16:00 Interest rate decision (Canada)

Thursday: 14:15 Interest rate decision (ECB)

Friday: 14:30 Spending data (USA)

Quarterly figures 20.10.2022...

Today there were some interesting numbers ⤵️

Adidas, AT&amp;T, Varta and many more...

Earlier today I posted in this post here:

https://app.getquin.com/activity/IlHgBVNIoW?lang=de&utm_source=sharing

announced some numbers for today. Now they are here and in this post I summarize them all briefly:

$ADS (+2,46 %)
Adidas:

With preliminary figures for the third quarter:

Sales up eleven percent to 6.408 billion euros, gross margin down from 50.1 to 49.1 percent, operating margin down from 11.7 to 8.8 percent.

Profit from continuing operations in the third quarter 179 million euros (previous year 479 million). Several non-recurring charges of just under 300 million. Inventory build at the end of the

63 percent at the end of the third quarter. Adidas expects double-digit adjusted sales growth in the fourth quarter and 2022 earnings of 500 million euros (previous year 1.3 billion) and a gross margin of 47.5 percent, up from 49 percent previously.

$VAR1
Varta:

With preliminary figures for the third quarter: sales -14% to 194 million euros, adjusted Ebitda -2.5 million (previous year 70.2 million).

$DOV (+0,65 %)
Dover:

Beat analyst estimates of $2.20 with third-quarter EPS of $2.26. Sales of $2.16 billion below expectations of $2.17 billion.

$DHR (-2,27 %)
Danaher:

Beats third-quarter analyst estimates of $2.26 with earnings per share of $2.56. Sales of $7.66 billion beat expectations of $7.14 billion.

$T (+0,98 %)
AT&amp;T:

Third-quarter earnings per share of $0.68 beat analyst estimates of $0.61. Revenue of $30 billion exceeded expectations of $29.87 billion.

$UNP (+0,6 %)
Union Pacific Corp:

Third-quarter earnings per share of $3.19 beat analyst estimates of $3.08. Revenue of $6.57 billion exceeded expectations of $6.44 billion.

$AAL (+0 %)
American Airlines Group Inc:

Third-quarter earnings per share of $0.69 beat analyst estimates of $0.47. Revenue of $13.5 billion exceeded expectations of $13.31 billion.

$GFT (+2,02 %)
GFT:

Raises guidance for fiscal 2022 significantly and now expects EBT of €66m (previously: €60m, prior year €40m) and adjusted EBITDA of €87m (previously: €81m, prior year €65m). The company continues to expect sales of €730 million (previous year €566 million).

$PM (+0,19 %)
Philip Morris Internat. Inc:

Surpassed analysts' estimates of $1.37 in third-quarter earnings per share of $1.53. Revenue of $8.03 billion exceeded expectations of $7.43 billion.

$ABB (-0,68 %)
ABB Ltd:

Missed analyst estimates of $0.38 in the third quarter with earnings per share of $0.19. Revenue of $7.41

How does what look to you guys? Which ones did I not mention where you are invested or in which ones are you invested? I am surprised that AT&amp;T can also be different. It is also still in my portfolio!

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