The tanker market in late March 2025 is a tale of contrasts and catalysts. VLCCs hold steady with subtle gains, buoyed by U.S. Gulf tightness and Venezuelan export curbs, while Suezmax firms in the Atlantic but faces supply headwinds. Aframax rates explode, driven by Mediterranean frenzy and Canadian crude rerouting, and clean tankers—LRs, MRs, Handymax—see mixed fortunes with Eastern strength fading. U.S. tariffs on Venezuelan oil buyers, a Russia-Ukraine maritime truce, and Thailand’s rail bypass plan shake up trade flows. Iran’s forged Iraqi documents and Saudi production whispers add intrigue. It’s a market balancing resilience with disruption—rates are up, but risks are stacking.
This update dives into VLCC, Suezmax, Aframax, and LR/MR/Handymax trends, unpacking the forces at play. From freight surges to geopolitical pivots, here’s the detailed scoop—clear and grounded.
⏬ VLCC Market: Holding Firm Amid Flux
Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs), the titans of oil transport, trudged along with Middle East Gulf-to-China (TD3C) rates easing to WS 58.95, yielding a round-trip TCE of $39,224 per day as of March 28.
West Africa-to-China (TD15) slipped to WS 59.88 ($40,899/day), but U.S. Gulf-to-China (TD22) climbed to $8.522M ($45,838/day), up $262,555, reflecting a tight position list in the Gulf.
Modern tonnage for MEG eastbound runs is scarce, pushing charterers to older ships or ex-dry dock options at discounts—West Africa and Brazil offer more breathing room with balanced supply.
U.S. tariffs (25%) on Venezuelan oil buyers—effective March 25—slashed loadings at Jose port, with Chevron’s exit looming by May 27, dropping March exports from 15 to 7 cargoes.
Venezuela’s 790,000 bpd February exports (256,000 bpd to U.S.) now face rerouting—Arctic Securities sees VLCCs gaining from longer hauls like Canada or Saudi Arabia replacing them.
Breakwave suggests Saudi Arabia might flood markets as in 2015, potentially driving VLCC rates to $100,000/day if OPEC+ unwinds 2.2M bpd cuts starting April.
Clarksons notes a $48,800/day fleet average on March 26, down 4%—rates ticked to $46,263 by Friday—showing steadiness despite cooling from a $47,834 peak on March 19.
Iraq’s oil minister flagged Iranian tankers using forged Iraqi manifests—U.S. seizures in the Gulf underline Trump’s “maximum pressure” on Iran, tightening shadow fleet scrutiny.
Thailand’s $29bn Landbridge rail could bypass Malacca by 2030, trimming 2,000 km off VLCC routes—though years away, it’s a future wildcard.
MOL and CMB.Tech’s ammonia-fueled bulkers (not tankers) signal decarbonization’s ripple—VLCCs might feel fuel shifts later.
The market’s “steady as she goes”—U.S. Gulf strength and tariff fallout keep it afloat, but oversupply risks loom if Saudi acts.
⏳ Suezmax Market: Atlantic Rises, Clouds Gather
Suezmax, the mid-tier crude haulers, saw Nigeria-to-UK (TD20) rates rebound to WS 102.92 ($45,125/day) by March 28, up 7 points, fueled by U.S. Gulf momentum.
Guyana-to-UK (TD27) rose to WS 100.28 ($43,322/day), while CPC-to-Med (TD6) held steady at WS 130 ($63,123/day)—Middle East-to-Med (TD23) lingered at WS 93-94.
U.S. Gulf spiked to 145kt x WS 92.5, a $6,000/day TCE edge over TD20’s last-done WS 97.5—owners push for WS 100, a threshold narrowly missed last week.
Aframax support lifts both Atlantic sides—only one firm U.S. Gulf-to-TA option exists, with others tied to shaky schedules, tightening the squeeze.
Charterers snapped up West Africa and South Africa openers, thinning front-end lists—Eastern ballasters to Cape of Good Hope got nabbed, hinting at a post-weekend ease.
Clarksons pegged a $43,400/day average on March 26, down 1.4%—Atlantic firmness contrasts with supply creep that could stall gains next week.
Russia-Ukraine maritime truce (March 25) may cut Black Sea risks—Clarksons sees no volume shift yet, but safer Russian crude could draw ships.
The outlook’s firm for now—U.S. Gulf and Atlantic demand prop rates, but tonnage relief might cap the climb soon.
⏱️ Aframax Market: Europe Ignites, Rates Rocket
Aframax, the nimble crude movers, erupted—Clarksons’ fleet average hit $45,800/day on March 28, up 13% daily, 52% weekly, and 72% monthly.
Cross-Mediterranean (TD19) soared to WS 198 ($69,372/day) by March 28, a 69-point leap—eco-ships touched $67,000/day Friday, up 88% week-on-week after a $51,200 peak.
North Sea (TD7) jumped to WS 126.67 ($43,100/day), a 19-point gain—U.S. Gulf-to-UK (TD25) rose to WS 182.5 ($47,747/day), and Mexico-to-Gulf (TD26) hit WS 189 ($49,644/day).
Signal Ocean ties the surge to U.S. 10% tariffs on Canadian crude—Europe (UK, Netherlands) absorbs 69% of redirected barrels, with Aframaxes hauling over 75%.
Mediterranean fixing for April stems slashed tonnage—Fearnleys notes shrinking lists and few U.S. Gulf ballasters, driving rates skyward.
North Sea lagged but firmed to $46,900/day Friday—consistent cargo could push it higher as ships chase hotter markets.
CPC output stays quiet for Aframaxes—rates there await a spark, while U.S. Gulf-to-Europe eco-runs hit $43,700/day, up 38% weekly.
Clarksons calls it a “flurry of activity”—Med’s 57% weekly growth leads, but parity with Suezmax TCEs might temper the frenzy soon.
Russia-Ukraine truce hasn’t shifted volumes—ABG Sundal deems it “inconsequential” for now—focus stays on European demand.
Positive owner sentiment rules—Aframax outpaces bigger peers, with Q2 looking rosy if Canadian flows hold.
1 Year T/C - VLCC SUEZMAX AFRAMAX ECO / SCRUBBER - March 26th
⏸️ LR/MR/Handymax Market: Clean Hits a Wall
LR2s, the large clean tankers, hit a plateau—TC1 (75kt MEG/Japan) fell from WS 163.61 to WS 153.33, and TC20 (90kt MEG/UK) dropped $243,000 to $3.956M by March 28.
West of Suez, TC15 (Med/East) dipped to $2.985M—stable but softer—Eastern petrochemical demand eased, cooling last week’s spike.
LR1s bucked the trend—TC5 (55kt MEG/Japan) rose to WS 180.94, and TC8 (65kt MEG/UK) climbed to $3.33M—UK’s TC16 edged to WS 115.94, up 2.81 points.
MRs in the MEG retreated—TC17 (35kt to East Africa) lost 27.5 points to WS 237.5—while UK’s TC2 (37kt to U.S. Atlantic) peaked at WS 195, settling at WS 185.63 ($29,086/day).
U.S. Gulf MRs surged—TC14 (38kt to UK) hit WS 136.79, TC18 (to Brazil) reached WS 201.43, and TC21 (to Caribbean) jumped 38% to $839,286—basket TCE rose to $31,802.
Handymax softened—Med’s TC6 fell to WS 248.89 (down 30 points), and UK’s TC23 dropped to WS 198.06—last week’s Baltic gains faded.
Eastern strength wanes—naphtha pull subsided—U.S. Gulf enquiry cleared prompt ships, lifting rates there instead.
MOL’s ammonia-ready chemical tankers (2028-2029 delivery) hint at clean fuel shifts—today’s rates feel current supply more.
⏳ What’s Shaping It: Tariffs and Truces
U.S. 25% tariffs on Venezuelan oil buyers and Chevron’s exit cut exports—VLCCs eye longer hauls—China and Iran bristle.
Canadian crude tariffs (10%) reroute barrels to Europe—Aframax thrives—Signal Ocean sees it lasting into Q2.
Russia-Ukraine maritime truce eases Black Sea risks—no volume boost yet—sanctions relief tied to Russia’s grain trade.
Iran’s forged Iraqi manifests dodge U.S. pressure—Iraq denies involvement—shadow fleets adapt.
Thailand’s Landbridge and Saudi supply hikes loom—OPEC+ cuts unwind could flood tankers by late 2025.
🌐 Outlook: Hot Spots, High Stakes
VLCCs hover near $45,000-$50,000/day—Saudi moves or Venezuelan gaps could spike it—steady for now.
Suezmax holds $43,000-$63,000/day—Atlantic’s firm, but supply might cool it—watch U.S. Gulf.
Aframax rides $45,000-$67,000/day—Med and Europe lead—Canadian crude keeps it cooking.
Clean tankers split—LR1s and U.S. MRs gain, LR2s and Handymax ease—East fades, West rises.
💬 Your Take?
Aframax boom or VLCC sleeper? Drop your thoughts—let’s unpack it! 🚢
*The Worldscale (WS) rate is a system used to calculate tanker freight rates, where WS 100 represents a standard base rate for a specific route. Rates above or below this benchmark indicate how much more or less a charterer will pay relative to the base cost. A higher WS rate means better earnings for shipowners, while a lower WS rate means lower transportation costs for charterers.