3Mon.·

An Marktphasen anpassen

Mit diesem Verkauf habe ich quasi meinen gesamten Buy and Hold Anteil (etwa 50% meiner Investitionen) aufgelöst. Einerseits um etwas Pulver für weniger teure Kurse freizumachen, aber hauptsächlich, um den Großteil davon in flexiblere Strategien umzuschichten, die sich besser an drehende Marktverhältnisse anpassen können. Und, als netter Nebeneffekt, meist performanter sind. Ziel ist es, keine weiteren Anstiege zu verpassen und trotzdem Drawdowns / zu vermeiden, falls es bald zu einem kommen sollte. Laut der Theorie zumindest 🫡

01.10

Xtrackers MSCI World Momentum ETF

Verkauft zu 68,97 €

22 Kommentare

surgicalinvesting@surgicalinvesting

3Mon.

The good old market timing lol good luck you are basically gambling.
Going in and out market has been proven countless time to be a losing strategy, I don’t really understand why people still do this

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Simon_n@Simon_n

3Mon.

@surgicalinvesting It‘s not gambling, it‘s actually very strategic with clear rules. Only a small fraction of this is being kept for potential pullbacks, the vast majority will flow into well tested and proven Momentum strategies. As stated in the post, this is not about going in and out, but about rearranging my portfolio to be more resilient while delivering better performance.

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surgicalinvesting@surgicalinvesting

3Mon.

@Simon_n again, it’s being proven that keeping money on the side in hope for dips is a losing strategy in the long run, but you do you

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Simon_n@Simon_n

3Mon.

@surgicalinvesting true, but looking at many, many, market indicators, it doesn’t look very promising for the next year. Maybe I‘ll miss out on something, maybe not.

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surgicalinvesting@surgicalinvesting

3Mon.

You and I don’t have the knowledge to “look at the indicators”, this is only for phds working at Wall Street. Don’t fall for this bullshit, keep buying without looking at the news

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Simon_n@Simon_n

3Mon.

@surgicalinvesting Well those data are easily available, and some studies have shown, that the performance in the years following a phase with e.g. a higher than average CAPE-Ratio was significantly smaller. Why do you think that‘s just for wall street phds?

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surgicalinvesting@surgicalinvesting

3Mon.

@Simon_n cape ratio has already been disproved as a predictive model. Do you think you can compete with Wall Street? Ahah

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Simon_n@Simon_n

3Mon.

@surgicalinvesting How exactly has it been disproven? I‘m not aware of any evidence, if you have any please share it. And it‘s not the only metric indicating a difficult market situation.

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Simon_n@Simon_n

3Mon.

@surgicalinvesting And I don‘t think I can compete with „wall street“ although thats not a person, I just want to secure my portfolio against deep drawdowns. That‘s all. If you think it doesn‘t work, fine.

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surgicalinvesting@surgicalinvesting

3Mon.

Cape ratio doesn’t take in consideration factors as risk factors. And history has proven that nobody can predict market drops consistently unless you are literally in the top 0.001% of investors. I’m telling you this to help you not lose money

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Simon_n@Simon_n

3Mon.

@surgicalinvesting Sure, and I appreciate that, but I would say statistics like the one on page 29 in this paper: https://mebfaber.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/GAA-Book-1.pdf suggest a certain significance. It might not be a causal connection, but they clearly seem to be related. And just to make this clear, I'm reinvesting at least 90% of that capital into a rule-based momentum strategy, to not miss out on the potential further bull market that you describe. The other 10% I'm not sure, maybe hold it in $XEON and wait, maybe invest it too.

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Gelöschter Nutzer

3Mon.

Kommentar wurde gelöscht

Simon_n@Simon_n

3Mon.

@Yoshika Ja, mindestens 90% davon gehen in Strategien mit klar definierten Regeln. Teils Momentum-Basiert (GTAA), teils nur SMA-basiert (verschiedene Varianten). Die genaue Allokation der Strategien werde ich noch genauer erforschen. Der Rest evtl. Krypto oder Einzelaktien. Willst du auf eine bestimmte Strategie hinaus bzw. fährst du eine?

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Gelöschter Nutzer

3Mon.

Kommentar wurde gelöscht

Simon_n@Simon_n

3Mon.

@Yoshika auch interessant, Trendfolge auf Einzelakien oder ETFs?

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Gelöschter Nutzer

3Mon.

Kommentar wurde gelöscht

Simon_n@Simon_n

3Mon.

@Yoshika cool, gefällt mir, viel Erfolg damit 🚀

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