1Wo.
@CoinShares_Insights Gibt es Infos darüber, wie sich dieser BTC Top-/Bottom-Indikator errechnet?
•
11
•
@CaYaRo The indicator is a composite score combining 10 on-chain and market metrics, each normalized to a [0,1] range before being aggregated. The metrics span four broad categories:
• Valuation — how expensive Bitcoin is relative to its realized or historical value (MVRV Z-Score, NUPL, Yardstick, RHODL Ratio)
• Market cycle positioning — where we are in the cycle relative to historical patterns (Puell Multiple, Reserve Risk)
• Price dynamics — momentum and risk-adjusted performance (Sharpe Ratio, a volatility-adjusted price moving average)
• Sentiment & drawdown — crowd psychology and distance from all-time highs (Fear & Greed Index, drawdown from peak)
Each metric is individually transformed to remove outliers and make it comparable across cycles, then combined into a single score. High readings historically correspond to cycle tops (euphoria, overvaluation, low risk premium), and low readings to cycle bottoms (capitulation, undervaluation, high risk premium).
The data is sourced from Glassnode.
• Valuation — how expensive Bitcoin is relative to its realized or historical value (MVRV Z-Score, NUPL, Yardstick, RHODL Ratio)
• Market cycle positioning — where we are in the cycle relative to historical patterns (Puell Multiple, Reserve Risk)
• Price dynamics — momentum and risk-adjusted performance (Sharpe Ratio, a volatility-adjusted price moving average)
• Sentiment & drawdown — crowd psychology and distance from all-time highs (Fear & Greed Index, drawdown from peak)
Each metric is individually transformed to remove outliers and make it comparable across cycles, then combined into a single score. High readings historically correspond to cycle tops (euphoria, overvaluation, low risk premium), and low readings to cycle bottoms (capitulation, undervaluation, high risk premium).
The data is sourced from Glassnode.
•
11
•