2Mon·

Cookies

And further increased ✊

01.09

Lotus Bakeries

Bought x0.25 at €8,094.00

€2,023.50

7 Comments

fund_mastermind_768@fund_mastermind_768

2Mon

Why not buy a whole cookie instead of just crumbs 😜

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Tommy@BarrySchotter

2Mon

@fund_mastermind_768 coming soon

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TheMaverick@TheMaverick

2Mon

Hi, I frequently see different getquin members buying this company but I don't get it.
IMO The company is massively overvalued, over 95 P/FCF and 38 Forward PE + slowing growth concern.
The 14% YOY growth cannot justify such valuation for a coockie business.
Margins are relative low considering the valuation, 38% gross margin (that is declining YOY) and 16% operating margin (in line with the food sector).

Don't get me wrong I am not criticizing your investment choice, I only would like to understand more about the company because I would like to open a position too since I eat a lot of these biscuits ahahah .
I just don't understand the valuation and maybe you have some pieces of information that I don't have.

According to my D/FCF Model (and my assumptions) I should open a position under 5.200 euro per share to have a 12% return every year over the next 10 years.

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MEMO@MEMO1993

2Mon

@TheMaverick but good stocks arent cheap, tell me when u could have entered the stock , i think arround 6k its fair valued aslong the numbers are fine

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MEMO@MEMO1993

2Mon

@TheMaverick and dont forget how much the 3rd generation changed the company , first company i ever saw what didnt got destroyed by the grandson ,no it improved with insanly good buys and give the cookie sector new products into the portfolio

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TheMaverick@TheMaverick

2Mon

@MEMO1993 Yes, Management is doing a great job and the product itself is very good. My only concern is the high multiples. I have seen a lot of high quality companies with very high multiples collapsing even if the fundamentals improved quarter over quarter and management was doing good.
The main problem they had in common was always the high valuation (and high expectations of Wall Street)
Just to name a few: $PAYC $DECK $MNDY $OR $TTD $ADYEN

I think Lotus Bakeries easily fit in this bucket of companies.

I hope I am wrong for everyone who invested in this company;
but that’s just my thought.

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Nom@user28461

1Mon

Why doesn't it bother you that you have to pay a 40 (last year 100) P/E ratio for a cookie bakery? With the growth, you will only have reached a fair value in 7-10 years if things continue as they are.

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