Ketchup Burak · 2023-09-16T10:29:57.011203Z

FTSE All World ♻️ S&P 500 After long consideration I replaced the FTSE All world with the S&P 500. I have also fully utilized my allowance for 2023.

1Yr

Congratulations! You have now fully entered the most expensive market in the world at the historical high point of prices and yield curve inversion. The Cape model predicts a real return of about 1%pa for the S&P500 over the next 10 years.

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Joris@Joris

1Yr

@Epi and with the Vanguard and World ? What should perform well for the next 10 years if you already know what should not perform well?

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Marcel@Mcl1991

1Yr

@Epi Most investors are not interested in such things. Tesla has also been declared far too overvalued for years. And it keeps going uphill. The U.S. is simply the economic powerhouse. Your predicted 1% p.a. will surely be exceeded by far.

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Ketchup Burak@DerJuwelier

1Yr

@Epi Did not get in new. Have exchanged my All world against the S&P 500. But I think you have not read the post 🙃

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Epi@Epi

1Yr

@Mcl1991 I know that most investors don't care about that 😉 However, the Cape model is very good and tested back to 1920. If the world continues to run roughly as it has for the last 100 years - and that is the necessary assumption of all ETF savers, then it will very likely be only 1% real return. For the MSCIWorld, by the way, something like 5% is expected.

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Epi@Epi

1Yr

@DerJuwelier So selling an asset A to buy an asset B doesn't mean "getting into" asset B for you? 🤔

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Nico@itZNico

1Yr

@Epi Well said. 👍 There are also such charts that compare the returns of asset classes and regions over several decades. Sometimes America, Developed or EM do better. Sometimes REITs, stocks, commodities, gold, bonds or cash do better. You can't automatically assume that America will continue to perform as it did before.

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ValueWilli@ValueWilli

1Yr

@Epi All those who entered at some point at the ATH are now laughing about it😂 S&P500 FTW🔥🔥🔥

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Epi@Epi

1Yr

@ValueWilli You don't know the Cape model at all, do you? It has nothing to do with ATH.

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Joris@Joris

1Yr

@Epi imagine that. :)

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Epi@Epi

1Yr

@Joris I already have. There were only three gloating comments. GQ is kind of not the place for strategic thinking right now. 🤷 That is probably due to the past decade, which was favorable for B&H US large caps. That will change again and then there will be more openness to long term models. Unfortunately, most are then likely to be rather frustrated with US largecaps and have filled their portfolios with EM smallcaps. If I then present models recommending US largecaps, there are likely to be three gloating comments again. 😅

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View all 42 further answers

Anilo@Anilo

1Yr

MSCI world is in something right between the two. I would take that one. FTSE does not perform as well as the other etfs.

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Das Portfoliopferd@Portfoliopferd

1Yr

@Anilo on how many years seen ;)

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Gerit@Gerit

1Yr

Bold move, understandable and betting on the number 1 (the US) in the market was definitely right in the last century, don't see why this should change in this century. Still, the top positions are currently dragging the whole index to a historically overvalued level. Keep adding money and hold for 2 decades should put the "risk" (volatility/"possible underperformance") into perspective. Wish you good luck with the investment and thanks for sharing. :)

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Joris@Joris

1Yr

I actually thought about it this week too and also came to the decision to switch from the $VWRL & $GGRP to the $VUSA & $GGRP combo. Bespare both of them in equal parts. Understand your decision.

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Bruzze T.@Steel-Team

1Yr

When investing in the S&P 500, I prefer to rely on a 90-year-old stock expert who clearly says never bet against America 🇺🇸 you will lose the bet. Since the MSCI World already contains over 60% of America, I might as well invest in the S&P 500. And nobody has a crystal ball.

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Wolfgang W.@Wuzz1983

1Yr

@Steel-Team you're certainly right, but in the All world you still have the EM with you. If these go steep in the next 2 decades, you also take a piece of the cake there... 🤩

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Bruzze T.@Steel-Team

1Yr

@Wuzz1983 Yes, that's right, of course, that's missing in the S&P 500. You'll just have to add an EM to it 😉

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Pezi@Pezi

1Yr

I hope you have also dealt with the currency risk....

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ValueWilli@ValueWilli

1Yr

Right so🤘 Why everyone always come to the Schlottern, although with their invincible World or All-World 60-70% USA are😂 It's just hollow. Still have the $VEUR in there with me and done. With that >90% of the best UN at the start. The few stalls from Japan or EMs I give up gladly and leave my German fear because of too little "diversification" times outside.

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Sparfuchs@Reinecke

1Yr

@ValueWilli because the world shifts when the USA becomes a 2nd Venezuela.

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ValueWilli@ValueWilli

1Yr

@KleinviehmachtMist Correct point. Is that what it becomes? And the 500 also layers the maggots out 😉

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Chandra@Chandra

1Yr

At the moment I would not invest in the normal S&P 500, but rather in the S&P 500 equal weight $SPEX. In my opinion, the top positions have run a bit too strongly this year and the equal weight takes the risk out a bit.

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