4H·

Bitcoin dominance is falling and the altcoin index is rising, ...

... but is the altcoin season coming or not?

This question is currently causing a lot of discussion in the crypto community. While some are speculating on another explosive move in Bitcoin (often referred to as the "banana curve"), I am personally rather skeptical - for several reasons.

1. market capitalization as a brake on exponential growth

The total crypto market capitalization is currently (as of July 2025) over USD 2.36 trillion (2,360,000,000,000). In previous cycles, the market was much smaller, which meant that massive capital inflows could cause extreme price increases relatively easily - especially for $BTC (+0.5%) . Today, a similar rally would require billions of fresh funds. It seems unrealistic that these funds would flow exclusively into $BTC (+0.5%) would flow exclusively into Many market participants have diversified their strategies. The market itself has also changed significantly and is pricing in euphoria more quickly.

2. altcoin indicators are green

A look at the Altcoin Season Index shows: We are now (as of July 20, 2025) at the 50 point mark - a traditional signal that altcoins are starting to outperform bitcoin in terms of gains. Historically, this is an early indicator of an altcoin season. Bitcoin dominance is also falling further below the 60-65% mark - another signal that capital is being shifted into smaller coins. $ETH (+5.42%) , $SOL (+2.32%) and other layer 1s are already picking up strongly. In addition, many sectors (AI coins, meme coins, DeFi) are performing above average.

3. further arguments for a possible altcoin season

$ETH (+5.42%) / $BTC (+0.5%) -Pair shows relative strength of Ethereum versus Bitcoin - typical precursor of altcoin runs.
Fresh liquidity from institutional products (e.g. Ethereum ETFs, spot products in the pipeline).
The retail market is slowly reawakening, resulting in more volume for smaller projects.

⚠️ But, but, but...

It remains to be seen whether this really is an all-encompassing altcoin season or just a sectoral hype. Individual altcoins are rising, which does not necessarily mean the end of an overall rise. However, there is still a healthy degree of skepticism - especially in a highly volatile market.

My personal outlook

In the long term, I see great potential for $BTC (+0.5%) as a basic digital asset and hedge against inflation. I am equally confident $ETH (+5.42%) with its dominant smart contract position. $SOL (+2.32%) shows impressive technical progress and network activity. And also $XRP (+3.39%) remains on my watch list - particularly with regard to institutional applications in payment transactions.

Even though I am currently gradually exiting my large and small positions, I am now (after the last 4 years of experience) only positioning myself in the above-mentioned assets and holding them for 15+ years.

👉 What do you think? Have we already reached the altcoin season or is this just an interim high? Which coins are you watching particularly closely at the moment?

Let's have an objective discussion. 💬📈

13 Comments

Ph1l1pp@Ph1l1pp

Anyone wondering whether the altcoin season is coming has not understood anything about crypto.

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DiviDino 🦖.@DiviDino95

@Ph1l1pp Would you like to argue technically, economically, philosophically or strategically? 🤔 It would be interesting to hear what you think. 👍 Or do you not see $ETH as an altcoin?

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investment_guru_2035@investment_guru_2035

@Ph1l1pp Why don't you save your arrogant comments if you don't want to help the people who are seriously asking questions here? Or pass on information that people can work with. Man man man, it shouldn't be that hard....

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Ph1l1pp@Ph1l1pp

49Min

@DiviDino95 @investment_guru_2035
First of all, I don't think much of contributions created by ChatGPT, as they show little knowledge of their own.

Furthermore, I think anyone who has not recognized that we are already in an "altcoin season" will miss the exit again (as was the case in Q4 2024- Q1 2025).

I could now list a number of reasons why I am convinced that we will see the top at the end of July/beginning of August (OI build-up, seasonality, etc.) but I don't have the time at the moment and I don't see the point.

If I'm right, I might create a post with my thoughts on this afterwards.

Ps: Getquin is the best top signal - just have a look at the posts on BTC/crypto in December/January ;)

Feel free to remind me in a few weeks if I'm wrong.

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Ricola@Roccola601

39Min

@Ph1l1pp However, the market is not interested in when you are convinced that a top will be formed. This depends on the environment and as long as we still have no QE, hardly any retail, possibly interest rate cuts and BTC overheating, you can speculate about the time frame for a long time - it may even be delayed even further. Of course, it could also be that you happen to predict the right time.

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DiviDino 🦖.@DiviDino95

22Min

@Ph1l1pp Thanks for the compliment for thinking the post was written by ChatGPT. 😄 But a bigger thank you for your contribution! I'm happy to read up on it.

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Ph1l1pp@Ph1l1pp

22Min

@Roccola601 What has the market been pricing in for weeks - months? 🙃

And I am well aware that the market is not guided by my convictions, because these are based on the current positioning of market participants.

It's funny that you talk about "retail" while countless posts are posted here asking whether they should buy x more coins ;)

Always entertaining.

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Ricola@Roccola601

15Min

@Ph1l1pp the social score is still relaxed for most altcoins, but yes, as always, as soon as everything goes up, social media goes up again. But as far as the time frame is concerned, I think there is a valid possibility that there will be a sharp setback and retail will be shaken out again and sentiment may even shift back to fear before it unexpectedly forms a real top. But as I said, in my opinion there's no point in getting stuck on a futures forecast - it's more important to pay attention to the relevant indicators. I wish everyone good luck 😃

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Ph1l1pp@Ph1l1pp

7Min

@Roccola601 Similar to the Altcoin Season Index, RSI, Fear and Greed Index or now also the Social Score - all these are lagging indicators and provide no signal and have little to no informative value.

Good luck to you too.

Ps: Don't hold your altcoins for too long and don't forget their value 😉

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TotallyLost@TotallyLost

So ETH/BTC has just taken out the 50-week EMA bullishly from below to above. I insist it's at least $ETH season 😘

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DiviDino 🦖.@DiviDino95

And after the ETH season, assuming that the cycle remains the same, we will move on to the other altcoins. 🤔

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Jarod@Jarod

Thank you for the insight into a market that seems strange to me.
I invested a very small amount in XRP some time ago, simply to get a feel for the subject and made a 25% profit.
I still don't understand the coins today 😉

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BeachPlease@BeachPlease

@Jarod Coins are assets, just like shares, commodities, real estate, classic cars, etc. and are intended to offer a fallback option if, for example, the stock market is/becomes bearish. But basically, coins are only "worth" something as long as people believe in their respective value or rely on their stable value, just like fiat money. In addition, coins are managed in a decentralized manner and are still unregulated. This is why stablecoins such as XRP are becoming interesting.

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