Inflation data from the USA continues to complicate the Fed's monetary policy course. The consumer price index (CPI) for June was 2.7% year-on-year, slightly above expectations (forecast: 2.6%), while the core CPI rose to 2.9%. The strongest price increases were seen in goods (such as furniture and clothing) and in the energy sector, while car prices fell - presumably due to purchases brought forward in advance of new tariffs.
However, producer prices (PPI) painted a less worrying picture: they remained unchanged month-on-month and rose by only 2.3% year-on-year - below expectations.
The forward-looking data is more worrying: The University of Michigan's 12-month inflation expectations remain at an elevated 5%, influenced by sharply rising tariffs (from 2.3% at the end of 2024 to 13% in June and an expected 17% by August 1). Customs revenue collected in June amounted to USD 26 billion - almost four times the monthly average for the year to date.
The US dollar has depreciated by 9.3% since the beginning of the year, while commodity prices - especially for industrial metals - are on the rise. All of this indicates that the risk of inflation remains.
Crypto: Milestone week in Washington
This week marked significant progress in US crypto legislation:
- The Genius Actwhich regulates stablecoins, was passed by the House of Representatives and is now on President Trump's desk for signature.
- The Clarity Actwhich defines the responsibilities between the SEC and CFTC, has also been passed and now goes to the Senate.
- The Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act was also passed and will have a significant impact on the future structure of central bank digital currencies in the US.
These legislative initiatives represent the most coordinated regulatory offensive for digital assets in US history to date - and could thus reduce uncertainty for advisors and investors with crypto exposure.
Institutional flows: Bitcoin on the balance sheet
MicroStrategy has acquired another 4,225 $BTC (+0,36%) and now holds a total of 601,550 BTC. The company continues to finance its holdings through the issuance of preferred shares, whose obligations now amount to around USD 60 million annually. At the same time, operating cash flow has remained negative since Q2 2024.
Cantor Fitzgerald is planning a second bitcoin treasury vehicle in collaboration with Blockstreamwith a planned initial contribution of 25,000 BTC (approximately USD 3 billion). Blockstream CEO Adam Back is to take a leading role in this.
