Hey Chris (@Multibagger)! 🚀
Ah, so our self-proclaimed “get-rich-quick” specialist has once again set his sights on Scandinavia! I’m not at all surprised that **AutoStore ($AUTO)** brings a tear to your eye:
A chart that shot up over 21% after the Q2 earnings fireworks on August 13, and a story featuring the magic word “Amazon”—that’s exactly the kind of honey that speculators go for!
But since you know that my AI guardian and I dissect numbers based on hard facts—not gut feelings—we’re going to peel back the glittery wrapping on your “Nordic gem.”
Here’s your personal wake-up call, served in bite-sized chunks:
---
### 1. The Amazon Deal: Did you even read the fine print? 🤡
You’re celebrating the “framework agreement with Amazon” as the major fuel for the coming years. That sounds extremely sexy in the headlines.
**The reality according to the financial report:**
It’s a global framework agreement **WITHOUT ANY PURCHASE OBLIGATION** (no committed volumes)!
Amazon has simply secured the option to use the robot cubes whenever they feel like it. There isn’t a single guaranteed dollar in revenue from this deal! So right now, you’re essentially buying nothing but hope and marketing hot air.
### 2. Your P/S ratio calculation: You’re even painting a rosy picture of the stock!
You write that the stock is being torn apart because of a P/S ratio of 6. If only it were that simple, my friend!
The P/S ratio isn’t 6—it’s **currently a hefty 8.5x to 8.9x**!
So you’re paying nearly 9 times annual revenue for a B2B warehouse automation company. The P/E ratio is currently just under **37x** (TTM) or just under **32x** (forward 2026). Even your hope for a 2028 P/E ratio of 23 (where analysts see an average of 23.8x–24.8x) assumes that absolutely nothing goes wrong by then.
### 3. Looking into the Crystal Ball: Why a Slowdown in H2 Is Looming
You’re dreaming of the stock doubling in 3 to 4 years. But have you taken a look at management’s forecast for the second half of 2026?
* In H1 2026, AutoStore generated **$358 million** in revenue.
* The revised full-year forecast stands at **~$700 million**.
* **Do the math:**
That means revenue of just under **342 million USD** for H2 2026—**so, mathematically speaking, momentum is flattening out in the second half of the year!**
* In addition, management has announced that the high EBITDA margins (most recently 45%) **will decline** in the second half of the year due to massive investments in AI, software, and personnel.
### 4. What the Market and the Charts REALLY Say
You’re jumping in right at the peak, when the party is actually already over:
* **Technically overbought:**
The RSI indicator is screaming “overbought” after the stock surged close to its 52-week high of 17.64 NOK on the Oslo Stock Exchange.
* **Fair Value:**
The calculated InvestingPro Fair Value is **16.10 NOK**. With the current price around 16.80–17.20 NOK, there’s **0% upside**—in fact, mathematically speaking, there’s even downside potential!
* **Analyst Split:**
Yes, Deutsche Bank upgraded the stock to BUY on August 14 with a target of 20 NOK. But Citi rates it only as Neutral at 17.50 NOK, the median analyst price target is just 15.54 NOK, and Morgan Stanley gives the stock a merciless price target of **8.00 NOK** (which would mean it’s cut in half!).
---
### 💥 My honest take for you:
Chris, you’ve once again fallen victim to classic **FOMO** (Fear Of Missing Out)!
You see a stock that jumps 20% in a single day after earnings, read the word “Amazon,” and chase after it at its 52-week high—with a P/S ratio of nearly 9 and zero dividend safety net.
AutoStore is technically an awesome company with a 72% gross margin and 100,000 robots on the market.
But at *this* price, the stock isn’t a “multibagger”—it’s a high-stakes gamble at an all-time valuation high.
If you want to burn through your money fast:
Go right ahead!
If you want to double it, you’d better wait until the hype cools down and the stock offers a real margin of safety again after a correction. 😉
Best regards from Denmark
Your RaketenToni
Ah, so our self-proclaimed “get-rich-quick” specialist has once again set his sights on Scandinavia! I’m not at all surprised that **AutoStore ($AUTO)** brings a tear to your eye:
A chart that shot up over 21% after the Q2 earnings fireworks on August 13, and a story featuring the magic word “Amazon”—that’s exactly the kind of honey that speculators go for!
But since you know that my AI guardian and I dissect numbers based on hard facts—not gut feelings—we’re going to peel back the glittery wrapping on your “Nordic gem.”
Here’s your personal wake-up call, served in bite-sized chunks:
---
### 1. The Amazon Deal: Did you even read the fine print? 🤡
You’re celebrating the “framework agreement with Amazon” as the major fuel for the coming years. That sounds extremely sexy in the headlines.
**The reality according to the financial report:**
It’s a global framework agreement **WITHOUT ANY PURCHASE OBLIGATION** (no committed volumes)!
Amazon has simply secured the option to use the robot cubes whenever they feel like it. There isn’t a single guaranteed dollar in revenue from this deal! So right now, you’re essentially buying nothing but hope and marketing hot air.
### 2. Your P/S ratio calculation: You’re even painting a rosy picture of the stock!
You write that the stock is being torn apart because of a P/S ratio of 6. If only it were that simple, my friend!
The P/S ratio isn’t 6—it’s **currently a hefty 8.5x to 8.9x**!
So you’re paying nearly 9 times annual revenue for a B2B warehouse automation company. The P/E ratio is currently just under **37x** (TTM) or just under **32x** (forward 2026). Even your hope for a 2028 P/E ratio of 23 (where analysts see an average of 23.8x–24.8x) assumes that absolutely nothing goes wrong by then.
### 3. Looking into the Crystal Ball: Why a Slowdown in H2 Is Looming
You’re dreaming of the stock doubling in 3 to 4 years. But have you taken a look at management’s forecast for the second half of 2026?
* In H1 2026, AutoStore generated **$358 million** in revenue.
* The revised full-year forecast stands at **~$700 million**.
* **Do the math:**
That means revenue of just under **342 million USD** for H2 2026—**so, mathematically speaking, momentum is flattening out in the second half of the year!**
* In addition, management has announced that the high EBITDA margins (most recently 45%) **will decline** in the second half of the year due to massive investments in AI, software, and personnel.
### 4. What the Market and the Charts REALLY Say
You’re jumping in right at the peak, when the party is actually already over:
* **Technically overbought:**
The RSI indicator is screaming “overbought” after the stock surged close to its 52-week high of 17.64 NOK on the Oslo Stock Exchange.
* **Fair Value:**
The calculated InvestingPro Fair Value is **16.10 NOK**. With the current price around 16.80–17.20 NOK, there’s **0% upside**—in fact, mathematically speaking, there’s even downside potential!
* **Analyst Split:**
Yes, Deutsche Bank upgraded the stock to BUY on August 14 with a target of 20 NOK. But Citi rates it only as Neutral at 17.50 NOK, the median analyst price target is just 15.54 NOK, and Morgan Stanley gives the stock a merciless price target of **8.00 NOK** (which would mean it’s cut in half!).
---
### 💥 My honest take for you:
Chris, you’ve once again fallen victim to classic **FOMO** (Fear Of Missing Out)!
You see a stock that jumps 20% in a single day after earnings, read the word “Amazon,” and chase after it at its 52-week high—with a P/S ratio of nearly 9 and zero dividend safety net.
AutoStore is technically an awesome company with a 72% gross margin and 100,000 robots on the market.
But at *this* price, the stock isn’t a “multibagger”—it’s a high-stakes gamble at an all-time valuation high.
If you want to burn through your money fast:
Go right ahead!
If you want to double it, you’d better wait until the hype cools down and the stock offers a real margin of safety again after a correction. 😉
Best regards from Denmark
Your RaketenToni
•
77
•
Okay, Toni, I'll wait to hear what your "type" is. I knew I could count on your no-holds-barred analysis.
•
33
•@Multibagger Oh, I just love it when he speaks his mind and is so warm-hearted 😂
•
22
•